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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21451523 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (135 posts by 29 users deleted.)
JorgeStolfi
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February 10, 2014, 01:23:22 AM
Last edit: February 10, 2014, 01:34:32 AM by JorgeStolfi
 #85221

Ok, I was a U.S. Navy "Nuke" on the U.S.S. Ohio. Three mile Island was not a meltdown, partial or otherwise. The control rods scrammed and it was sub-critical. Some fission particles escaped when the core was partially uncovered. This is not a meltdown.

Sorry to have started an off-topic discussion... But Three Mile Island was indeed a meltdown, although it fortunately failed to breach the pressure vessel.

The industry initially denied any meltdown, but the truth became evident many years later, when the pressure vessel was finally opened and its contents were removed.  A large portion of the fuel had melted, leaving a wide cavity in the middle of the core.  The molten stuff trickled down through the remaining water, bore twice through internal steel baffles and collected  at the bottom of the pressure vessel.  If the operators had taken a little longer to do the right thing, it would surely had breached the pressure vessel, like Fukushima #1--#3 did.  See the Wikipedia article  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident. (The /Science/ magazine had a long article about that in the 1980s).  

EDIT: PS. By the way, the Fukushima reactors all scrammed properly and were completely shut down when the tsunami hit.  The meltdown occurred because of the heat given off by the radioactive elements resulting from fission, which is not stopped by the control rods and requires active cooling for months after shutdown.  Also, none of the reactors that melted down used sodium as a coolant.
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February 10, 2014, 01:49:56 AM
 #85222

Ok, I was a U.S. Navy "Nuke" on the U.S.S. Ohio. Three mile Island was not a meltdown, partial or otherwise. The control rods scrammed and it was sub-critical. Some fission particles escaped when the core was partially uncovered. This is not a meltdown.

Sorry to have started an off-topic discussion... But Three Mile Island was indeed a meltdown, although it fortunately failed to breach the pressure vessel.

The industry initially denied any meltdown, but the truth became evident many years later, when the pressure vessel was finally opened and its contents were removed.  A large portion of the fuel had melted, leaving a wide cavity in the middle of the core.  The molten stuff trickled down through the remaining water, bore twice through internal steel baffles and collected  at the bottom of the pressure vessel.  If the operators had taken a little longer to do the right thing, it would surely had breached the pressure vessel, like Fukushima #1--#3 did.  See the Wikipedia article  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident. (The /Science/ magazine had a long article about that in the 1980s).  

EDIT: PS. By the way, the Fukushima reactors all scrammed properly and were completely shut down when the tsunami hit.  The meltdown occurred because of the heat given off by the radioactive elements resulting from fission, which is not stopped by the control rods and requires active cooling for months after shutdown.  Also, none of the reactors that melted down used sodium as a coolant.

yeah this is off-topic. Some new info, so thanks, but many of these risks can be reduced or eliminated with design changes. For example, if the reactor is capable of natural circulation, then cooling pumps wouldn't be needed after shutdown.

back to the thread. Is is just us Americans who couldn't get fiat to the exchanges who want to buy or is this a more global development?
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February 10, 2014, 02:07:02 AM
 #85223

11:06AM Tokyo Japan MtGox headquarters



Quote
We were repeatedly hacked, but we felt it was necessary for mtgox to keep trading despite being insolvent, not to taint bitcoin's image. However now that everyone has decided to withdraw all there bitcoin all at once, it is clear we can no longer pretend everything is fine. all the coins are gone, our USD reveses are severely depleted, we are sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.
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February 10, 2014, 02:11:31 AM
 #85224

Has anyone thought that maybe the high cost of Bitcoin at MtGOX was simply an indication of the true value of Bitcoin?

Is it possible that the price of Bitcoin is being artificially depressed to allow some of the bigger players who came into the market late a chance to get some cheap coin?

Kind of like the very very very very last train to a place that no one will be able to get on again for a long while?
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February 10, 2014, 02:13:57 AM
 #85225

Wall down! i repeat wall down!

BUY ALL THE NON-GOXED BTC!


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February 10, 2014, 02:15:13 AM
 #85226

If the price at Coinbase is higher than that of other exchanges, people should flock there to sell, but no one would want to buy from them at those prices. 

So Coinbase must be collecting lots of bitcoins and depleting their dollar reserves. And they cannot sell those bitcoins now without a substantial loss. This is what MtGOX was doing until a couple of days ago. (Perhaps Coinbese is trying to fill the market niche that MtGOX abandoned?  Grin)

Perhaps they believe that the prices will rebound to more than 730 soon? 

Is there a general shortage of money in the other exchanges, that might be cured when the banks open today?

What is preventing arbitrage from working (buy cheap coins at other exchanges, sell them to Coinbase for 30%+ profit)?  We knew why in the case of MtGOX, but that explanation does not apply to Coinbase, does it?

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February 10, 2014, 02:15:25 AM
 #85227

That c.600 coin ask wall at $699 on Stamp was eaten in about 5 mins by several >100 buys.  700 now broken.
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February 10, 2014, 02:16:44 AM
 #85228

Everyone is watching Gox so closely, I suspect someone is trading with themselves on Gox to swing the other exchanges in their favor, where their fiat and BTC are actually worth something. Watching the walls on Gox, the bid side will rise at the exact moment the ask side falls, some trading happens, then it reverses. All the bid/asks in a $100 range shift back and forth. Seconds later, Stamp and BFX follow.  Also, someone puts a big wall at say 700 on Stamp, then Gox asks will fall and price will rise until the wall at Stamp gets eaten. Then seconds later the ask wall on Gox comes back keeping the price from going further up. Rinse and repeat. This can't be someone taking advantage of bots can it? Who would keep that much ammo (+500btc) for their bots?
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February 10, 2014, 02:19:49 AM
 #85229

Has anyone thought that maybe the high cost of Bitcoin at MtGOX was simply an indication of the true value of Bitcoin?

Is it possible that the price of Bitcoin is being artificially depressed to allow some of the bigger players who came into the market late a chance to get some cheap coin?

Kind of like the very very very very last train to a place that no one will be able to get on again for a long while?

na mtgox was higher because it was hard to get $ out...

but yes, many are using this bear market to accumulate cheap coins, they will let it fall as low as they can and let ask depth build as much as possible.

bid depth is purposefully underplayed, and price is allowed to slide in order to make hodler capitulate.
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February 10, 2014, 02:20:45 AM
 #85230

If we keep this bottom for two days more I'm gonna start buying like there is no tomorrow.
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February 10, 2014, 02:24:07 AM
 #85231

If the price at Coinbase is higher than that of other exchanges, people should flock there to sell, but no one would want to buy from them at those prices. 

So Coinbase must be collecting lots of bitcoins and depleting their dollar reserves. And they cannot sell those bitcoins now without a substantial loss. This is what MtGOX was doing until a couple of days ago. (Perhaps Coinbese is trying to fill the market niche that MtGOX abandoned?  Grin)

Perhaps they believe that the prices will rebound to more than 730 soon? 

Is there a general shortage of money in the other exchanges, that might be cured when the banks open today?

What is preventing arbitrage from working (buy cheap coins at other exchanges, sell them to Coinbase for 30%+ profit)?  We knew why in the case of MtGOX, but that explanation does not apply to Coinbase, does it?



coin base is 4.3% higher
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February 10, 2014, 02:24:35 AM
 #85232

Would be nice if coinbase stopped gouging us.
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February 10, 2014, 02:25:19 AM
 #85233

If we keep this bottom for two days more I'm gonna start buying like there is no tomorrow.

if they sell into my walls, i will place more!  Wink
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February 10, 2014, 02:29:28 AM
 #85234

If the price at Coinbase is higher than that of other exchanges, people should flock there to sell, but no one would want to buy from them at those prices. 

So Coinbase must be collecting lots of bitcoins and depleting their dollar reserves. And they cannot sell those bitcoins now without a substantial loss. This is what MtGOX was doing until a couple of days ago. (Perhaps Coinbese is trying to fill the market niche that MtGOX abandoned?  Grin)

Perhaps they believe that the prices will rebound to more than 730 soon? 

Is there a general shortage of money in the other exchanges, that might be cured when the banks open today?

What is preventing arbitrage from working (buy cheap coins at other exchanges, sell them to Coinbase for 30%+ profit)?  We knew why in the case of MtGOX, but that explanation does not apply to Coinbase, does it?



I assume they gradually raised their quoted prices (importantly both buy and sell prices) until the sell demand started to overtake the buy demand.  Combined with a spread of almost $20 between buy and sell prices, they should still be making plenty of money without exposing themselves to very much risk.

There is nothing preventing arbitrage from happening.  In fact, it almost certainly is happening right now.  It will only last until they wire more money in tomorrow and the price works its way back to the normal market price.  It does hint toward significant US buying demand right now, which suggests an impending rise in the morning.
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February 10, 2014, 02:36:40 AM
 #85235

Essentially, Coinbase is currently operating like a sportsbook does; trying to get equal action on both sides and collecting their vig.
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February 10, 2014, 02:37:58 AM
 #85236

coin base is 4.3% higher

Oops, thanks. I should have written "30 US$" (over Bitstamp) rather than "30%".
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February 10, 2014, 02:46:55 AM
 #85237

Really looking forward to picking up some cheap coins soon. 
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February 10, 2014, 02:53:36 AM
 #85238

Has anyone thought that maybe the high cost of Bitcoin at MtGOX was simply an indication of the true value of Bitcoin?

Is it possible that the price of Bitcoin is being artificially depressed to allow some of the bigger players who came into the market late a chance to get some cheap coin?

Kind of like the very very very very last train to a place that no one will be able to get on again for a long while?

Everybody at least needs one crazy friend. You are my crazy friend.

http://z0r.de/631
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February 10, 2014, 02:55:51 AM
 #85239

If the price at Coinbase is higher than that of other exchanges, people should flock there to sell, but no one would want to buy from them at those prices. 

So Coinbase must be collecting lots of bitcoins and depleting their dollar reserves. And they cannot sell those bitcoins now without a substantial loss. This is what MtGOX was doing until a couple of days ago. (Perhaps Coinbese is trying to fill the market niche that MtGOX abandoned?  Grin)

Perhaps they believe that the prices will rebound to more than 730 soon? 

Is there a general shortage of money in the other exchanges, that might be cured when the banks open today?

What is preventing arbitrage from working (buy cheap coins at other exchanges, sell them to Coinbase for 30%+ profit)?  We knew why in the case of MtGOX, but that explanation does not apply to Coinbase, does it?


They also could just be completing buy and sell orders in house with coinbase users buy and sell orders
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February 10, 2014, 03:00:04 AM
 #85240

Has anyone thought that maybe the high cost of Bitcoin at MtGOX was simply an indication of the true value of Bitcoin?

Is it possible that the price of Bitcoin is being artificially depressed to allow some of the bigger players who came into the market late a chance to get some cheap coin?

Kind of like the very very very very last train to a place that no one will be able to get on again for a long while?

Everybody at least needs one crazy friend. You are my crazy friend.

http://z0r.de/631

lol...I like you...your funny.
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