Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[deeplink]

... and governments are done cleaning up the illicit side of bitcoins (tumblers, localbitcoins unregistered users, drug/weapon trading sites, people who don't report taxes--they can find you now or later....its not worth it) ...

Not sure if serious

I'm serious.   Obviously these won't go away.  They will always exist.   But once the majority use of bitcoin is not seen as being based on illicit/illegal reasons, then it can be more broadly accepted.   For those who just want a coin to trade drugs, weapons or to hide money, they will always find a way to do it, whether its cash, bitcoin or some other coin,   but until the vast majority of bitcoin use is seen as legal and valuable, it can't really grow I think.   Most use probably is already legal, but the swarm of news for the last year is heavily biased towards not (Coindesk who is probably shorting doesn't help either).

Illegal and immoral are not the same thing.

Whatever you try to force onto peaceful people using the violence and coercion of the state may be legal, but it isn't moral.

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[manfred]

@aminorex

There are exchanges and I use them.  But they all feel at least somewhat dubious right now, at least if you are a US citizen.

1.  Bitstamp....very good reputation, but there are few who feel really good about a bank in Slovenia.  .  US banks are reluctant to send there, but it has become easier.  I did it, but I have been very nervous each day I left any balance there.  Bank could collapse, fraud on wallets without anyone to guarantee my money/balances.
2.   btc-e, huobi.   I can't use it since it's in China (at least I can't convert to USD), and I would never trust any company in China presently.  Huobi has already been shown to be faking data as well.
3.  Coinbase isn't an exchange but comes close.  However, really poor customer service, poor customer experience unless you are doing very small volumes  and they seem to be hedging customer transactions.  I had 12 out of 15 transactions canceled, most at the last minute after a week of waiting, with a paper loss of around 12K.  I just don't trust them right now anymore and stopped using them.   I also know their engineering on the backend to be highly suspect; maybe that is improving.   But MongoDB, seriously???  A transactional, financial system on a schemaless database.
4.  CampxBx has lost their bank for now.
5.  Gox....don't need to say anything here
6.  Waiting to see what CoinMKT can do.
7.  SecondMarket feels the most sane/robust to me, but they are just beginning.
8..  Localbitcoins.... given recent news I would rate this as highly suspect

I'm hoping for US folks that a US bank or exchange creates a bitcoin layer on top of their existing infra.  At some point they will realize they can't fight the positive of standardized crypto, and I expect to see them buy a company or make their own btc bank/exchange, or partner.  Coinbase is unlikely to get bought out I expect due to the poor engineering and customer experience.

Why not use the fully compliant San Francisco based exchange Kraken?

[Davyd05]

looking at the past corrections of late 2013 and so on, we've become a lot less fear mongering during these uncertain times, not as many coins are being dumped at ludicrous speeds.

I really hope that the recent peak of bitcoin days destroyed is more or less a testament to the fact old coins are going to new strong hands, I mean I know I can't quantify the numbers of who bought for hodling, or day trading but the trend imo seems to be that the market is soaking up coins at the cheapest prices, and people aren't going to choo choo till we eat all the coins being brought in strictly to be sold.

Also every bear and there brother have waited for the dip and I am sure won't give up their short positions till a strong recovery wave begins, I still think that that could be as soon as valentines day. We've only made it easier for more people to join this revolution.

[analytics]

... and governments are done cleaning up the illicit side of bitcoins (tumblers, localbitcoins unregistered users, drug/weapon trading sites, people who don't report taxes--they can find you now or later....its not worth it) ...

Not sure if serious

I'm serious.   Obviously these won't go away.  They will always exist.   But once the majority use of bitcoin is not seen as being based on illicit/illegal reasons, then it can be more broadly accepted.   For those who just want a coin to trade drugs, weapons or to hide money, they will always find a way to do it, whether its cash, bitcoin or some other coin,   but until the vast majority of bitcoin use is seen as legal and valuable, it can't really grow I think.   Most use probably is already legal, but the swarm of news for the last year is heavily biased towards not (Coindesk who is probably shorting doesn't help either).

Illegal and immoral are not the same thing.

Whatever you try to force onto peaceful people using the violence and coercion of the state may be legal, but it isn't moral.

On this point, I am with you and aminorex.  I'm not in support of gov. watchdogging everyone. We should be able to have some anonymous transfers; there are good reasons and there should remain ways to do it.   But being realistic, I don't see how bitcoin can become bigger than it is without some integration and sacrifice on some points.

[aminorex]

It is mathematically inevitable that debt-based monetary systems will explode.  It does not require any particular economic theory or political ideology to recognize this, merely mathematical literacy.

Those be some strong claims.  Doubts about them, I have.
I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation.

That is a major component.  In and of itself, it would not make collapse inevitable, but it forms the foundation upon which collapse is built.
The system was designed to rent-seek in the margin, draining the energy made available by economic growth, on an exponential growth model.
The system can no longer work as designed, because the exponential growth assumption has reached end-of-life.  The energy available is declining.
It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible,
in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems:

It is useful to characterize ecological systems by their path through a three-dimensional phase-space, the axes of which are energy requirements, interconnectedness, and diversity.   Ecological systems, incorporating predator-prey dynamics, are attracted to a lemniscate path through this phase space.  When energy requirements approach the limits of available energy, interconnectedness is high, and diversity is low, the system is reaching a catastrophic portion of the trajectory, and a very rapid motion to a loosely-coupled, low-energy, high-diversity region ensues.  

The predators are about to become carrion, upon which a new diversity will feed.

[NewLiberty]

Banks and users can choose to only deal with addresses that are "clean" with some identity tied to it.

Then block-reward coins will have a different values then circulated coins.  

This is already occurred.  Fresh coins never spent can be sold for more.  Never having been exposed to a shipping address or any transaction, there are those today that may seek these above all others.

[pietje]

looking at the past corrections of late 2013 and so on, we've become a lot less fear mongering during these uncertain times, not as many coins are being dumped at ludicrous speeds.

I really hope that the recent peak of bitcoin days destroyed is more or less a testament to the fact old coins are going to new strong hands, I mean I know I can't quantify the numbers of who bought for hodling, or day trading but the trend imo seems to be that the market is soaking up coins at the cheapest prices, and people aren't going to choo choo till we eat all the coins being brought in strictly to be sold.

Also every bear and there brother have waited for the dip and I am sure won't give up their short positions till a strong recovery wave begins, I still think that that could be as soon as valentines day. We've only made it easier for more people to join this revolution.

Nothing happened at the previous peak of bitcoindays destroyed. Could be some big fonds or wall street starting to buy in, or just a wallet change for a early adopter.

[JorgeStolfi]

I may be naive, but I do not believe that the Chinese government will try to ban or further restrict Bitcoin trade in the near future.

The People's Bank of China has prudently forbidden banks to speculate or trade crypto-coins, so there is no risk that they would lead to instabilities in the banking system.  

Commerce has been prohibited from quoting prices or accepting payment in crypto-coins, so the PBOC monopoly on issuing currency is preserved.

And exchanges are now limited to BTC/Yuan transactions, with withdrawals and depositis in Yuan through Chinese banks; so crypto-coin trade cannot bypass PBOC's tight control on the Yuan's exchange rate, nor the government's ability to track money flow inside China or across the border.

So now the flow of Yuan in the crypto-coin economy in China is isolated from the flow of other national national currencies outside China.  Trading in crypto-coins may transfer sizable amounts of Yuan from some Chinese pockets to other Chinese pockets, but the PBOC is not concerned about that
(in fact, that is what the finance industry is all about).   Crypto-coins now cannot be used to exchange Yuan for dollars or vice-versa.

A Chinese citizen still can buy 10 BTC with 45,000 Yuan at Huobi, sell them at Bitstamp for 7000 US$, and use that money to pay for his trip to Disneyland.  But the PBOC is happy with that, since those Yuan stayed in China, and those dollars came out of the pockets of the American bitcoiners who bought those coins.   Why would the PBOC object to Americans giving a 7,000 US$ trat to a Chinese citizen?

It is true that the transaction removed 10 BTC from the pool of bitcoins in the Chinese exchanges. Theoretically, that made bitcoins a little more expensive in China, which means the Yuan lost a little of its purchasing value.  However, the PBOC thinks bitcoins are worthless, so reducing their supply does not reduce China's real wealth in their view.  And, anyway, the positive effect of those bitcoin exports on the Chinese BTC price is nil compared to the price swings that we have seen in the last 18 months.

What about the opposite: an American investor buys 10 BTC at Bitstamp, sells them on Huobi, and uses the 45,000 Yuan to pay for his holidays in China?  In that case, it would be the Chinese bitcoin investors who would pay the foreigner's expenses.  In theory, the PBOC should not like that, since it makes hotels and food a bit more expensive (in real terms, not just in Yuan) for the Chinese people.   However, since there is no Bitpay or equivalent in China, the tourist would have to open an account in a Chinese bank in order to open a Huobi account and get the Yuan out of the exchange; which is probably difficult, if not impossible.  So the PBOC should have no reason to worry about that either.

(By the way, a while ago I posted a simplified example showing how a non-Chinese trader could do arbitrage between the Chinese and Western exchanges, by associating with a Chinese trader.  As shown in that example, even if the arbitrage transactions do not even out by themselves, the two partners can evenly split the profits by exchanging bitcoins, without ever exchanging national currencies.  In the end, the profit of the non-Chinese arbitrager comes entirely out of the pockets of other non-Chinese traders, and likewise the Chinese partner takes money only from other Chinese traders.  So arbitraging is not a concern to PBOC either.)

In conclusion,  I believe that the PBOC is satisfied with the measures it has already taken, and will not give any more thought about the crypto-coin market.

There are other authorities in China that might want to ban bitcoin trading altogether.  As it happened in the US with Enron and Madoff, and in Brazil with OGX,  if some really big investor loses a lot of money and feels cheated, the Chinese equivalent of the SEC may step in.  Or, if thousands of Chinese workers lose their savings after being lured by promises of fabulous gains, public attorneys may close the exchanges using common anti-scam laws.  But I feel that both are unlikely to happen, given that the PBOC has already warned everybody about the risks of playing that game.

[analytics]

It is mathematically inevitable that debt-based monetary systems will explode.  It does not require any particular economic theory or political ideology to recognize this, merely mathematical literacy.

Those be some strong claims.  Doubts about them, I have.
I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation.

That is a major component.  In and of itself, it would not make collapse inevitable, but it forms the foundation upon which collapse is built.
The system was designed to rent-seek in the margin, draining the energy made available by economic growth, on an exponential growth model.
The system can no longer work as designed, because the exponential growth assumption has reached end-of-life.  The energy available is declining.
It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible,
in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems:

It is useful to characterize ecological systems by their path through a three-dimensional phase-space, the axes of which are energy requirements, interconnectedness, and diversity.   Ecological systems, incorporating predator-prey dynamics, are attracted to a lemniscate path through this phase space.  When energy requirements approach the limits of available energy, interconnectedness is high, and diversity is low, the system is reaching a catastrophic portion of the trajectory, and a very rapid motion to a loosely-coupled, low-energy, high-diversity region ensues.  

The predators are about to become carrion, upon which a new diversity will feed.

I like your thinking actually now that i see it more clearly, and I don't disagree with everything.  The only part written that I disagree with is "It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible,
in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems."   I don't think it's impossible.  I think that evolution is likely.   As you pointed out, it will force a spike of high diversity, but I think that will mean adapting of the current bank system with some integration with bitcoin like crypto.   I like the thought of taking that power away from those that have dominated it to their own gain.   And they likely will suffer no matter what to some degree.  I think we agree on that, but I don't see decentralized cryto replacing former systems completely.  Instead, it's a mix is my belief of where it is headed.   I think we need both versions.

[deeplink]

Illegal and immoral are not the same thing.

Whatever you try to force onto peaceful people using the violence and coercion of the state may be legal, but it isn't moral.

On this point, I am with you and aminorex.  I'm not in support of gov. watchdogging everyone. We should be able to have some anonymous transfers; there are good reasons and there should remain ways to do it.   But being realistic, I don't see how bitcoin can become bigger than it is without some integration and sacrifice on some points.

Fair enough if you don't see it (yet).

I agree that maybe Bitcoin will integrate with organised crime (governments and banks) or sacrifice its original goals. Who knows. But other technologies will take over within months and grow even bigger than Bitcoin.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Those be some strong claims.  Doubts about them, I have.
I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation.

That is a major component.  In and of itself, it would not make collapse inevitable, but it forms the foundation upon which collapse is built.
The system was designed to rent-seek in the margin, draining the energy made available by economic growth, on an exponential growth model.
The system can no longer work as designed, because the exponential growth assumption has reached end-of-life.  The energy available is declining.
It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible,
in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems:

Ok, so a "Chris Martenson crash course" view, if I can summarize it as such.  Me being a little know-it-all b*tch, I have to point out that this takes into account several other aspects of the world, besides the purely mathematical (which you already admitted).  I am not saying I disagree with you, just that "mathematical certainty" gets thrown around too quickly, when it's really the underlying model that should be the object of discussion.  

It is useful to characterize ecological systems by their path through a three-dimensional phase-space, the axes of which are energy requirements, interconnectedness, and diversity.   Ecological systems, incorporating predator-prey dynamics, are attracted to a lemniscate path through this phase space.  When energy requirements approach the limits of available energy, interconnectedness is high, and diversity is low, the system is reaching a catastrophic portion of the trajectory, and a very rapid motion to a loosely-coupled, low-energy, high-diversity region ensues.  
The predators are about to become carrion, upon which a new diversity will feed.

Ok, I 'll need some more time to process this, has an interesting ring to it (although I'll probably just forget to do it)  .
Thanks for the nice reply. 

[surfer43]

Illegal and immoral are not the same thing.

Whatever you try to force onto peaceful people using the violence and coercion of the state may be legal, but it isn't moral.

On this point, I am with you and aminorex.  I'm not in support of gov. watchdogging everyone. We should be able to have some anonymous transfers; there are good reasons and there should remain ways to do it.   But being realistic, I don't see how bitcoin can become bigger than it is without some integration and sacrifice on some points.

Fair enough if you don't see it (yet).

I agree that maybe Bitcoin will integrate with organised crime (governments and banks) or sacrifice its original goals. Who knows. But other technologies will take over within months and grow even bigger than Bitcoin.

I know it is easy to simplify things that much.  Most of the times what the government does it has already allowed itself to do. Even the NSA's programs were approved, by a secret court.

Banks sometimes do illegal things like money laundering, but fractional reserve banking is legal.   

[keithers]

Coinbase must be buying and selling in between member's own accounts to keep the price above all the other exchanges.   Usually they are within a few dollars of bitstamp, the spread being that far apart isn't that common...

[Ivanhoe]

Remember when Silk Road went down? "oooooooh nooo bitcoin is going to die, the sky is falling !!!!!!11!!!!" Got news for you, it didn't. Bitcoin is bigger than Silk Road, Mt.Gox and China. It will survive this as well.

For all you get-rich-quick youngsters ( pigs ) out there who are shitting their pants because the price is no longer rising, please sell your coins. Don't waste your time watching a bitcoin price ticker because you own 0,87323 BTC. Go do something productive.

[keithers]

BTC-E and Bitstamp must be loving the Gox implosion...a much bigger piece of the pie for them.   They also must like the panic sells, as they just keep racking up the withdraw fees

[keithers]

Remember when Silk Road went down? "oooooooh nooo bitcoin is going to die, the sky is falling !!!!!!11!!!!" Got news for you, it didn't. Bitcoin is bigger than Silk Road, Mt.Gox and China. It will survive this as well.

For all you get-rich-quick youngsters ( pigs ) out there who are shitting their pants because the price is no longer rising, please sell your coins. Don't waste your time watching a bitcoin price ticker because you own 0,87323 BTC. Go do something productive.

I agree.  I also think that people with the least amount of coins are the ones watching the charts the most.   They are also the first to be claiming the sky is falling, and how everyone needs to get out before it is too late.   

[pietje]

Remember when Silk Road went down? "oooooooh nooo bitcoin is going to die, the sky is falling !!!!!!11!!!!" Got news for you, it didn't. Bitcoin is bigger than Silk Road, Mt.Gox and China. It will survive this as well.

For all you get-rich-quick youngsters ( pigs ) out there who are shitting their pants because the price is no longer rising, please sell your coins. Don't waste your time watching a bitcoin price ticker because you own 0,87323 BTC. Go do something productive.

I agree.  I also think that people with the least amount of coins are the ones watching the charts the most.   They are also the first to be claiming the sky is falling, and how everyone needs to get out before it is too late.   

I would think ppl who are day trading have some coins and watchin the charts alot too

[PoolMinor]

I agree.  I also think that people with the least amount of coins are the ones watching the charts the most.   They are also the first to be claiming the sky is falling, and how everyone needs to get out before it is too late.  

This statement is wrong on so many levels, think about it. If someone holds 100 coins valued at $800 and another person holds 0.25 coins valued at $800, who do you think stands to lose a bigger amount when the price tumbles by half? Who do you think will care whether the price is fluctuating?

[OldGeek]

I would think ppl who are day trading have some coins and watchin the charts alot too

Yes we do.  But I, for one, don't get all heated up by $20 peak-to-peak swings.  Patience is a virtue that makes good things happen.

[Davyd05]

I agree.  I also think that people with the least amount of coins are the ones watching the charts the most.   They are also the first to be claiming the sky is falling, and how everyone needs to get out before it is too late.   

This statement is wrong on so many levels, think about it. If someone holds 100 coins valued at $800 and another person holds 0.25 coins valued at $800, who do you think stands to lose a bigger amount when the price tumbles by half? Who do you think will care whether the price is fluctuating?

I would say, those with the most btc may have bots, better stop loss or limit buys/sells pre-set and staggered. Couple that with price alerts on a phone and they rarely have to stare at the charts. So it is imo equally silly to strictly say that cause they have more invested they would stare at the ticker more often.

I think the main idea of the second sentence of the first quote was that the trolls with small amounts of btc come screaming its dying er mer gerd ! to stir the pot and hopefully get a chance to nibble at cheap coins.