Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Another 4x or 10x. Talk about kicking the hornet's nest. The higher this thing climbs the more I want to go into hiding. Normals are losing their shit over this.

WAT?


WAT?


Don't get scared RF.....


Do you believe that currently, bitcoin is at some point of instability?

We had a very healthy 13% immediate bitcoin bounce upwards after breaching $10k followed by almost an immediately 23% price correction and then bouncing back and forth in the middle of those extremes for the past couple of days...

Seems like the snake is coiling, no?

Yeah, maybe we are not going to get another 4x out of this bad boy, but still we could more easily get another 50% to 150% upwards, no?  After having our immediate 23% correction after breaking through $10k, I think that is a strong and bullish sign, and I think that we have some more upwards to go... We still need to experience a blow off top, and I don't think that breaking through $10k has been a sufficient nor adequate blow-off top in bitcoinlandia, especially given a lot of the money that has flowed into the crypto space and some of that money is going to fuel some more bitcoin price rising in order that we can see a blow-off top, and yeah some of the 4x to 10x predictions do seem to be a bit much and reaching for the stars might not be a bad idea; however, conservatively speaking, can't you see at least another 50% to 150% blow off top based on current circumstances and the fact that on an ongoing basis, we continue to get bitcoin price corrections on this upwards price slope of the past 3.5 months (since August or so)?

[Meuh6879]

Source : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-30/time-different-part-i-what-bitcoin-isnt

“Backed by nothing”

This is the goto criticism for people who simply don’t understand that crypto-currencies are based upon mathematics, zero-trust, open-source and consensus. They think that bitcoins can simply be created “at will” and are backed by nothing.

They also say that as if the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar, isn’t, literally, “backed by nothing” and hasn’t been since 1972; and as if it can’t be created at will, which it most certainly has, with a vengeance.

Indeed as Galbraith continued in our earlier passage:

    “This was true in one of the earliest seeming marvels: when banks discovered that they could print bank notes and issue them to borrowers in excess of the hard-money deposits in the banks’ strong rooms”.

All fiat currencies today really are backed by nothing and can be created at will (that’s what the word “fiat” actually means), and perhaps unbeknownst to many we are right now in a protracted, global currency war. Every nation is “racing to the bottom”, trying to devalue their currency against their trading partners so they can:

-    give their exporters a competitive advantage

-    pull stronger currencies in to make money on the exchange, and

-    service their ever expanding debts back with devalued, cheaper currency

This is why everybody’s purchasing power is going down despite tenured academics and central bankers incessantly complaining about “low inflation” and political spokesmodels always talking up a “strong currency”.

In Bitcoin or other true crypto-currencies, early holders are not receiving bitcoin from later entrants.

In fact, quite the opposite is happening.

Later entrants must entice earlier ones to part with their bitcoin. Since Bitcoin cannot be created at will, it must be mined at a rate that drops over time (this year approximately 640K new bitcoin will be mined, about 3.8% of the total supply).

Demand for bitcoin is simply outstripping supply of new coins being mined (for reasons we will discuss in Part II).

If said price action rises dramatically (like for example, Bitcoin suddenly became the highest performing asset class in the world) then a feedback loop would occur.

Ever higher prices would be required to induce earlier holders to sell.

Tulipmania

What is described above is the same dynamic that occurs in any “bull market”, as buying begets more buying, and “fear of missing out” kicks in. It is said one of the most accurate gauges of “happiness” correlates closely to how much wealth one has when compared to one’s brother-in-law. Alex J Pollock describes it in “Boom and Bust: Financial Cycles and Human Prosperity”, as “The disturbing experience of watching one’s friends get rich”.




Finally I found Anne Goldgar’s Tulipmania: Money, Honor and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age, which is the most in-depth investigation to the rise and subsequent fall of Tulipmania extant today. In it we learn about the circular references that went on to inform our present time about Tulipmania:

    “If we trace these stories back through the centuries, we find how weak their foundations actually are. In fact, they are based on one or two contemporary pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism. From there we have our modern story of tulipmania.”

[Rosewater Foundation]

@Jay
I'm just speaking personally. This kind of money makes me feel like a target. I'd prefer to get rich under the radar if possible.

[600watt]

Comfortably over $10K going into 2018 I can foresee.
$100,000 by the summer and $1,000,000 after the next halving in 2020 sounds totally unrealistic.
I think one of the problems at this point is that even those that hold lots of cash let alone those on the breadline are totally unaware you can buy a fraction of a coin.

But I'd happily be proven wrong.

she thought that she had to buy in increments of a whole bitcoin

That's really common - at least two of my friends have said to me "oh, I can't afford to buy btc now because it's over $10,000"

imho, the fact that the bitcoin community failed to carry on with mBTC (1/1000 btc) a few years ago is one of the main reasons we see thousands of alts, hundreds of ICO and all this forking sheit.

yesterday evening some employees of mine and their friends invited me to answer their cryptocurrency questions.  they have been watching me advocating bitcoin for several years, but now they got interested.

everyone was asking me what alt they should invest in. the. whole. evening.  I told them that I would only invest in btc. they ALL said "but it is way too expensive" - and they know they can buy fractions. it is a psychological trap. and the bitcoin community as whole did not see that.

when I was through with a lengthy and detailed description of the reasons why bitcoin is superior and the safest way to go in crypto, they asked me again: really now, what altcoin do you think has the most potential?  

[Rosewater Foundation]

^I disagree. The higher the price the more people want to buy it. Humans are right confusing.

[Totscha]

^I disagree. The higher the price the more people want to buy it. Humans are right confusing.

Humans are stupid.

[JayJuanGee]

Comfortably over $10K going into 2018 I can foresee.
$100,000 by the summer and $1,000,000 after the next halving in 2020 sounds totally unrealistic.
I think one of the problems at this point is that even those that hold lots of cash let alone those on the breadline are totally unaware you can buy a fraction of a coin.

But I'd happily be proven wrong.

she thought that she had to buy in increments of a whole bitcoin

That's really common - at least two of my friends have said to me "oh, I can't afford to buy btc now because it's over $10,000"

This used to be one of the complaints lobbied at bitcoin for "having its units wrong" and why bitcoin is over priced and a bunch of similar bullshit like that; however, I have come to realize that it is a sign that even very smart people have difficulties grasping the concept of bitcoin until they really get in there and grapple with it and buy a few satoshis, and then the divisibility will sink in, perhaps a bit better.

[Colonel Panic]

BitcoinSegWit is not Satoshi’s immutable protocol, i.e. it is not Bitcoin. It is a “pay to anyone” shitcoin. I smell a rat on the horizon combined with shorting on futures markets.

It's the ledger that's immutable, not the "protocol"

Jeez, Rog needs to improve the 1hr induction session.

[JayJuanGee]

@Jay
I'm just speaking personally. This kind of money makes me feel like a target. I'd prefer to get rich under the radar if possible.

Well, I think that I can kind of relate to that.  I recall that there were periods in July, August, September that I discontinued some discussions and interactions with people (in the real world) about bitcoin, because the price had been going up so much that I thought that people were starting to get really weird and the scammers were coming out, etc. etc. 

And, you could be correct about this $10k threshold, too.  I had noticed a few real world interactions that I had recently that kind of cause me to conclude that the freaks are coming out ... so yeah, perhaps the more wealth that we acquire in bitcoin the more we have to safe guard some of the wealth because it is adding up to a lot of money.  I had to move bitcoins off of several exchanges, because what I had considered a kind of "spare" change and "dust" had turned into real value and I no longer wanted to have that much value tied up in a few places... .  So the more I think about it, I can relate... I can relate.

[600watt]

^I disagree. The higher the price the more people want to buy it. Humans are right confusing.

let´s start a new bitcoin civil war. big unit-ers vs small unit-ers!  

[Rosewater Foundation]

^I disagree. The higher the price the more people want to buy it. Humans are right confusing.

let´s start a new bitcoin civil war. big unit-ers vs small unit-ers!  

[JimboToronto]

Comfortably over $10K going into 2018 I can foresee.
$100,000 by the summer and $1,000,000 after the next halving in 2020 sounds totally unrealistic.
I think one of the problems at this point is that even those that hold lots of cash let alone those on the breadline are totally unaware you can buy a fraction of a coin.

But I'd happily be proven wrong.

she thought that she had to buy in increments of a whole bitcoin

That's really common - at least two of my friends have said to me "oh, I can't afford to buy btc now because it's over $10,000"

It's better to start off by talking about satoshis.
___

"What are those charts you're always looking at?"

"I'm checking the price of satoshis."

"What are satoshis?"

"A satoshi is a hundred millionth of a bitcoin."

"What's a bitcoin?"
___

Then they start with the idea that satoshis are the basic units.
___

"What do satoshis cost?"

"You can buy a million of them for only $100."

"Wow. I can afford that. I can be a satoshi millionaire for only a benjamin?"

"Yep."

 

[JayJuanGee]

Comfortably over $10K going into 2018 I can foresee.
$100,000 by the summer and $1,000,000 after the next halving in 2020 sounds totally unrealistic.
I think one of the problems at this point is that even those that hold lots of cash let alone those on the breadline are totally unaware you can buy a fraction of a coin.

But I'd happily be proven wrong.

she thought that she had to buy in increments of a whole bitcoin

That's really common - at least two of my friends have said to me "oh, I can't afford to buy btc now because it's over $10,000"

imho, the fact that the bitcoin community failed to carry on with mBTC (1/1000 btc) a few years ago is one of the main reasons we see thousands of alts, hundreds of ICO and all this forking sheit.

yesterday evening some employees of mine and their friends invited me to answer their cryptocurrency questions.  they have been watching me advocating bitcoin for several years, but now they got interested.

everyone was asking me what alt they should invest in. the. whole. evening.  I told them that I would only invest in btc. they ALL said "but it is way too expensive" - and they know they can buy fractions. it is a psychological trap. and the bitcoin community as whole did not see that.

when I was through with a lengthy and detailed description of the reasons why bitcoin is superior and the safest way to go in crypto, they asked me again: really now, what altcoin do you think has the most potential?  

That is a really great illustration of the whole point that those of us who recognize the value of BTC are likely benefitted by some of the public misperceptions, and sooner or later those folks are going to have to get past their intellectual barriers and really begin to understand and grapple with the concept of divisibility.

Fuck them, if they cannot see the value.. and that means cheaper coins for us who can and that means that the price is going to catch up (in other words continue to go up) whether these refusing to see folks begin to understand divisibility or not.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Is anybody here still buying?

[HairyMaclairy]

I don’t find that argument convincing as I believe Bitcoin is a Veblen good.  People are attracted to it because of its stupid price.

[HairyMaclairy]

Is anybody here still buying?

Not at $9800.  




Edit:   this comment will age poorly. 

[Rosewater Foundation]

I don’t find that argument convincing as I believe Bitcoin is a Veblen good.  People are attracted to it because of its stupid price.

That's the word I was looking for.

[JayJuanGee]

Is anybody here still buying?

Of course.

If the price goes down, then buy, and if the price goes up then sell.

The price has been going up and down in the past two days... so just apply the formula.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Is anybody here still buying?

Of course.

If the price goes down, then buy, and if the price goes up then sell.

The price has been going up and down in the past two days... so just apply the formula.

That's day trading. That's madness. I'd get r0ached for sure.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Is anybody here still buying?

Not at $9800.  




Edit:   this comment will age poorly. 

QFT