Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA2]

[Wekkel]

It's a Trap 

[HairyMaclairy]

Good to remember things like this in the right light. The market is a lot more mature now. Just as volatile, I should think.

I don’t think we’ll ever see a 96% crash again (the sole exception being a hidden flaw in the bitcoin protocol).  A 40% crash is going to be a “big deal”.

[JayJuanGee]

I love how your all online shopping for teslas n lambos while I'm sitting here on my 0.44 btc hoping for it to hit 25k or something crazy to make my life alittle smeg easier than living pay check to pay check 😂😪

Rome was not built in a day, and neither was financial prosperity.

Almost always financial prosperity takes a long time to build; however, you are on a real fucking decent track if you have at least identified an asset in which you believe that you are going to feel comfortable investing in the long term, namely bitcoin, - so long as you do not get distracted by stupid-ass "get rich quick" schemes, such as propaganda of various alts that attempt to trick you out of your bitcoins by playing on your temptations to gamble on luck  rather than something more solid, like bitcoin, that has foundationally strong fundamentals.

[AlcoHoDL]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice... I feel I should have invested more in BTC when I could. But I guess that's the greedy side of me talking. Will see how things play out...

[TERA2]

http://whatbubble.ytmnd.com/

[DaRude]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice, or a borderline FUD call...

Just a typical diversification advice. Don't invest more than you can loose etc.etc..etc...

[HairyMaclairy]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin years ago, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice, or a borderline FUD call...

If you have enough to lead a happy, comfortable life if Bitcoin goes to zero tomorrow, then there’s nothing wrong with the vast majority of your wealth being tied up in Bitcoin.  

[JayJuanGee]

So has anyone here actually treated themselves to anything after passing an arbitrary milestone?

Not yet. OTOH, my daughter asked me to walk her through my 'laddered day trading' strategy for monetizing the volatility. She's been sitting on her BTC for just shy of four years now. I guess she's ready.

Well, you going to share some kind of outline of that overall strategy with us (in it's current iteration and how it might vary for your daughter, who likely has a smaller BTC/fiat stash), or is your overall strategy a secret to pass only on to family members?

[DaRude]

I always wondered if I went back in time and bought 1,000,000 coins, what would happen and how it would change. Maybe btc would just fail altogether.

Do not f*ck with the past, it's working out perfectly ... well for the majority of us at least. Just continue doing whatever it is that you do.

[JayJuanGee]

Good to remember things like this in the right light. The market is a lot more mature now. Just as volatile, I should think.

I don’t think we’ll ever see a 96% crash again (the sole exception being a hidden flaw in the bitcoin protocol).  A 40% crash is going to be a “big deal”.

You go from pessimistic to optimistic to pessimistic.. currently seeming optimistic.. ?.

We had a 40% drop in mid September from $4980 to $2790, and then we had a 30% drop a couple of weeks ago from $7,888 to $5,555, and then we just had nearly a 27% drop from $11,395 to $9,000.

I personally think that a 60% to 80% drop is possible, especially if we look at spike amounts, and perhaps, it could be sustained at somewhere above 60% - however, it does not seem that we get there in the near future based on current BTC price market dynamics, and gosh, I am not sure how much we go up before a BIG ASS crash and even sustained downward manipulation becomes realistic.. so yeah, maybe we go up to $30k first, or perhaps $80k...

We cannot really know the amount that we are going to go UP until we go there and even how long it might take to get to the UP point.  For example, I think that if all of a sudden, within less than a week, we were to do a 3x in the current BTC price, then that would likely NOT be sustainable and perhaps in that kind of situation, then we may get more than a 60%, and even perhaps spikes down to a 80% correction?

So, my point is that I would not rule out these kinds of BIG ASS corrections, even though in the current market situation, any such correction is not likely to get anywhere close to 40%, because we just had one, within the past week, that took us down nearly 27% and we "recovered" quite nicely.. so having another 40% seems a bit preposterous.. absent some major successful FUD or something like that.

[TERA2]

-CME cancels the future due to SEC
-Japan pulls a China
-Segwit/Lightning/etc are teh fail
-Bitfinex is goxxed
-Satoshi becomes a bear and dumps all in one market order on Bitstamp filling my order for a million coins at $0.11

[jbreher]

So has anyone here actually treated themselves to anything after passing an arbitrary milestone?

Not yet. OTOH, my daughter asked me to walk her through my 'laddered day trading' strategy for monetizing the volatility. She's been sitting on her BTC for just shy of four years now. I guess she's ready.

Well, you going to share some kind of outline of that overall strategy with us (in it's current iteration and how it might vary for your daughter, who likely has a smaller BTC/fiat stash), or is your overall strategy a secret to pass only on to family members?

Oh hell, JJG. It's not secret. In fact, I've divulged it here before*. And indeed, to the extent that you have revealed yours, I think it is largely the same strategy.

*I've couched it in terms of 'taking value in fiat', in a means that plays off the volatility, that sometimes nets you even more BTC than before starting to pull out fiat value. Either way, maximizes your possible net. Maybe a month or two ago. Let me know if you need me to drag it out again. Though I distinctly remember you commenting upon at at the time.

The important point is daughter is now interested enough to try to absorb it. I find this an excellent development, as dinner table discussion between the Mrs. and me has transitioned from 'what do you want to do now that we have all this money'? to 'what is the most responsible way to handle dynastic wealth'?

Really the only variable for a smaller owner is using smaller amounts. Everything scales to holdings. I'll simplify to BTC only, and only on GDAX (where makers pay 0%). At least at first. The strategy -- such as it is -- is applicable to other scenarios, perhaps with additional complications.

We're divided by a 45 minute drive and infrequent emails & phone. She really needs a full intro. I figure it'll be a written manual, plus live demo when we can get together. First installment written and sent, but that is really an overview of available data that a trader might need. I'll post it if you want, but it is likely remedial for Bitcoin wall watchers, and only covers background info. Next installment will be an exchange overview, then third likely the method itself.

[Ted E. Bare]

-CME cancels the future due to SEC
-Japan pulls a China
-Segwit/Lightning/etc are teh fail
-Bitfinex is goxxed
-Satoshi becomes a bear and dumps all in one market order on Bitstamp filling my order for a million coins at $0.11

Stop being a bear. Just buy bitcoin. Hodl and chill. Best decision you will ever make.

[TERA2]

-CME cancels the future due to SEC
-Japan pulls a China
-Segwit/Lightning/etc are teh fail
-Bitfinex is goxxed
-Satoshi becomes a bear and dumps all in one market order on Bitstamp filling my order for a million coins at $0.11

Stop being a bear. Just buy bitcoin. Hodl and chill. Best decision you will ever make.

This is false. You need to replace 'bitcoin' with 'dogecoin'.

[JayJuanGee]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice... I feel I should have invested more in BTC when I could. But I guess that's the greedy side of me talking. Will see how things play out...

I also don't really know what he is saying, except perhaps that we need to be  making conscious assessments about what are doing and how we are allocating our assets and whether we may be in a decent position to be considering reallocation.

Surely, I doubt that you need to have anything near an allocation of 50% initially in order to be approaching 90% currently and based on the exorbitant extent of our recent price appreciation(s).

I can look at my own initial goal of allocating around 10% that ended up being closer to 15%, and even though I lost a decent amount of coin through a hacker(s), I still am running numbers very close to 90%, depending on how I frame my investment. 

On a personal level, I feel fairly cognizant about the personal appropriateness of the approach that I am taking, and surely I appreciate the concept of diversification and reallocation too.  i also appreciate the concept of selling on the way up and buying on the way down, which I continue to believe to be a really decent vehicle that could sufficiently address allocation and diversification concerns and allow what might appear to be more risky/lopsided BTC allocation levels.

I know that each of us develop some strategies here, too, and I am thinking about Bob, too... .. I mean sometimes guys give us ideas about the quantity of their holdings, and sure, he is saying that he is diversifying by cashing out some of his Bcash, and stuff like that, and is that level of cashing out enough?  Should not each of us be cashing out a little bit along the way.. just in case (without making any BIG ASS cashing outs?)  Another thing that Bob said, is where is he going to put his money that is better than BTC.. and in that regard, just having it in cash is not better, but it does help to prepare for BTC dips, even knowing that long term cash is not going to hold its value, but for a year or less, it is not a major price to pay to hold some cash, just in case for buying BTC dips, no?

[AlcoHoDL]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice, or a borderline FUD call...

Just a typical diversification advice. Don't invest more than you can loose etc.etc..etc...

Sure, the "don't invest what you can't afford to lose" advice is good and should be followed by all but the most adventurous. But if you've already applied it when you invested initially (at 50%), then it still holds true now that you're at 90%, so you can still be adventurous without the risk (well, you're only risking your current gains).

If you have enough to lead a happy, comfortable life if Bitcoin goes to zero tomorrow, then there’s nothing wrong with the vast majority of your wealth being tied up in Bitcoin.  

Of course, it would be sad to live poorly and in misery just to keep a big BTC stash! But if your life was already OK before investing your 50% on BTC, I don't see a good reason for returning from 90% to 50% just to secure the profits. It's a risk that many of us are willing to take. If BTC goes to the moon, all the better for us. If it drops to zero, the initial investment was small anyway, so life goes on as normal. That's the way I approach it.

I've rephrased my original post, removing the FUD part, as I feel I was too harsh on him. It is very possible that a huge bear period will come, and we may well lose more than 50-80% of our BTC's current value. But even at that point, there's still profit to be made for many of us, especially the very early adopters.

In short, personally, I'm planning to liquidate half of my BTC stash at the time when the fiat value I will get is enough to allow me to quit my job and pursue an independent career in my field. The other half I will keep, in the hope that BTC will eventually become something much bigger than it already is.

[TERA2]

Having an order at a low price doesn't mean I'm a bear - it has to do with individual exchanges screwing up and liquidating the entire book - I've seen it before.

[ayesha201009]

so far there is a clear trend between btctalk users , it seems pretty clear by now price is up trending and a new record is also probable.
in the last hour price is again around 11k dollars, Are these good moment to buy before another rise? wait for december 18th!

[JayJuanGee]

So has anyone here actually treated themselves to anything after passing an arbitrary milestone?

Not yet. OTOH, my daughter asked me to walk her through my 'laddered day trading' strategy for monetizing the volatility. She's been sitting on her BTC for just shy of four years now. I guess she's ready.

Well, you going to share some kind of outline of that overall strategy with us (in it's current iteration and how it might vary for your daughter, who likely has a smaller BTC/fiat stash), or is your overall strategy a secret to pass only on to family members?

Oh hell, JJG. It's not secret. In fact, I've divulged it here before*. And indeed, to the extent that you have revealed yours, I think it is largely the same strategy.

You are the one who brought it up, and I am kind of getting another lovey dovey tinglie feeling to be anticipate that I could be having a bit of trade strategy bonding (sharing of commonality) with a picnic food eating bear.

*I've couched it in terms of 'taking value in fiat', in a means that plays off the volatility, that sometimes nets you even more BTC than before starting to pull out fiat value. Either way, maximizes your possible net. Maybe a month or two ago. Let me know if you need me to drag it out again. Though I distinctly remember you commenting upon at at the time.

I have read a few posts of yours on the topic, and surely you have informed me in various ways.. but I thought that you could share the overall essence, rather than just saying that your daughter is interested... I mean give us a bit more than merely that.

The important point is daughter is now interested enough to try to absorb it. I find this an excellent development, as dinner table discussion between the Mrs. and me has transitioned from 'what do you want to do now that we have all this money'? to 'what is the most responsible way to handle dynastic wealth'?

Actually that is a very important point.  It takes a long time to put theory into practice and to hone strategies that are comfortable on a personal level and that are personally tailored.. and mistakes are likely to be made, too, in order to learn.. or at least mistakes will likely be made if someone is really engaging with the matter in a meaningful way to attempt to use BTC to reach personalized goals.

Really the only variable for a smaller owner is using smaller amounts. Everything scales to holdings.

Actually, I agree with you, but the owner of a smaller level of assets frequently wants to catch up and gets anxious and then starts to make BIG ASS mistakes.. that has been my experience trying to teach people, many times, they have difficulties keeping down their amounts and exercising restraint because otherwise they either run out of BTC on major price rises or they run out of fiat on major crashes.  I have seen that a lot with people I interact, and even with myself it has taken a lot of time, and I am thinking that I am not completely immuned from such overrunning.

I'll simplify to BTC only, and only on GDAX (where makers pay 0%). At least at first. The strategy -- such as it is -- is applicable to other scenarios, perhaps with additional complications.

Actually, I think that it is good to be able to have the zero fee option, and surely if you try to trade in other place, you gotta cushion a bit more to account for those trading fees.

We're divided by a 45 minute drive and infrequent emails & phone. She really needs a full intro. I figure it'll be a written manual, plus live demo when we can get together.

I am kind of in the opinion to give guidance and then let the person practice and the person should practice with smaller amounts and then can get into more of an interaction about what s/he did and learning from mistakes and smart moves, too... so maybe writing less and just going over scenarios and letting the person develop a strategy that fits within some semblance of acceptable parameters.

First installment written and sent, but that is really an overview of available data that a trader might need. I'll post it if you want, but it is likely remedial for Bitcoin wall watchers, and only covers background info. Next installment will be an exchange overview, then third likely the method itself.

hopefully you do not bore her to death with your bear talk?   hahahahhahaha..

I am just kidding.    Hopefully, she will continue to pay attention through all three treatises... Maybe that is why I have such a love hate relationship with such a picnic bear... reminds me of myself, somewhat.