Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mymenace]

$70000 here we come

[criptix]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-02/jpmorgan-has-some-bad-news-bitcoin-bears

Chances are high that jp morgan bought bitcoin from 5 to 11 k 

[HairyMaclairy]

Anyone thought through the game-theory of buying and HODLing the CME Futures the day they are issued ? I'm thinking it's only going to go up - long - as soon as it's issued.

Was thinking of re-allocating $250k in a retirement portfolio...

It’s not quite that simple.  You are required to make (or receive) a daily cash settlement.  

[bones261]

Here are the confirmed sources
-snip-

You forgot the tea leaves and phrenology.  

And numerology, like JJG likes to accuse me of..

Just call 1-800-966-2294. I'm sure you can find someone who can consult the confirmed sources of your choice.

http://www.thepsychicline.com/

[d_eddie]

Anyone thought through the game-theory of buying and HODLing the CME Futures the day they are issued ? I'm thinking it's only going to go up - long - as soon as it's issued.

Was thinking of re-allocating $250k in a retirement portfolio...

Here's an interesting post from infofront that provides some food for thought.

I got this from another thread. It was originally posted by someone on /r/bitcoin:

I thought I’d share some of my stock market knowledge to help my fellow HODLers get a perspective on the CME futures that will be launching soon.
First let me explain a bit of history: in 1982 CME group launched futures on the S&P500.
What happened next? The stock market went on a spectacular run for 5 years until it eventually crashed in 1987.
Why does this matter for Bitcoin? Because I believe a similar story is about to unfold. This story is the fundamental story about adding leverage to a new underlying asset.
Bitcoin is a relatively “unleveraged” asset as compared to other financial assets. It’s new, it’s untainted. This is significant because of the mechanics of market prices and the future potential of market prices.

When something enters a levering stage, like Bitcoin is about to, the mechanics of the market are HEAVILY weighted to the buy side and not the sell side. Why? Because to be a seller you MUST be a previous buyer (or if you’re shorting, the supply comes from a previous buyer). This may sound weird, but the potential capacity to sell is a function of those who previously bought. This is why in an early market like Bitcoin it’s very hard for it to consistently fall as there’s not a lot of buyers yet built into the price. It takes years and years of accumulation and volatility to create a normalized market. When it’s new, especially pre leverage, it’s very easy to bid it up.
When the CME futures are added, it will likely lead to spectacular rallies, but you need to arm yourself with the knowledge that the eventual buying will plant the seeds of the future capacity to panic.

This is what happened in 1987: The stock market had a 3 day wipeout of over 22%. It took 5 years to develop the buy side enough to create the conditions for panic. This was caused by the CME futures in 1982.
Even since 1987, there has never been a crash of similar magnitude, because that initial levering stage was eventually normalized and a healthy market now exists on both bid side and ask side (sell side).

Why do I tell you this? I want to arm you with expectations to keep your wits when it all goes down. The crash on Bitcoin will likely be of many magnitudes deadlier than the stock market. We just had a 29% correction and it was frankly less than the last two. 20-40% corrections are standard in Bitcoin. When we have the futures levered crash, it’ll likely be 50-60%+. This will be hard on your psychological commitment. Prices do funny things to people’s perception, just like how BCH rose and now suddenly everyone thinks it’s a BTC contender. (Nothing’s changed, price was just pumped up and psychology affected.)

So first thing: prepare for that eventual crash, I suspect it’ll take 1-3 years to create the conditions for an extreme sell side due to leveraging. This sell will start and accelerate, hitting stop losses and margin calls, which is “mechanical selling”. The mechanical selling (forced selling) will cascade and create a feedback loop where more margin calls are hit, more stop losses, etc etc until almost all profits of the last year or 2 are wiped. Combined with the emotional panic caused by extreme falling prices, it will make people think Bitcoin isn’t real and abandon it.

Next thing: the 1987 crash, while devastating in many ways, was completely recovered by the stock market in 8 months. Seriously! The worst crash ever was repaired in 8 months and the market has been much more healthy since then. It is up dramatically since those days, and that crash was just a blip on the screen.
The same will happen with Bitcoin, but my fear is that crash will be worse than even wallsteeters can handle, and it may shake you HODLers to the core.
But if you understand that the powerful selling is just a function of the leveraged previous buying, it’s just fundamentally an opportunity.
I will ride this hard as we lever up, and after an extreme period of euphoria, when Bitcoin is on every front page, when every HODLer owns a mansion, when your government-loving socialist neighbour is asking for your help converting money to Bitcoin, I’ll be lightening up heavily, waiting for the crash. I will bet everything at the bottom of the crash, and sail off into the sunset a crypto-god.

Good luck guys. I hope you weather the next 1-3 years with great savvy.

[gembitz]

Here are the confirmed sources
-snip-

You forgot the tea leaves and phrenology.  

And numerology, like JJG likes to accuse me of..

yeah, that number stuff is nonsense eh?

anyway....$12345.67 incoming!!

When it comes to Bitcoin numerology, I kinda like 1,000,000.00.

C'mon John Macafee.  

i think i finally figured out who satoshi is :-D funny stuff huh!! ===>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAkY4oS9-Y0

[RealMachasm]

This is clearly as high as bitcoin will ever get, basically. Maybe just a little bit higher because there are people who haven't realized this is a failed experiment, but that's it. 1 bitcoin will absolutely never be worth $50k. $100k? LOL, no.

What'd I tell you guys? That was the last ATH bitcoin will ever see. People are finally waking up to how much of a failure this project is. Here, if bitcoin gets over GDAX ATH of $11,485, I'll give the the first person to quote me here the last of my bitcoin, which is 0.1 BTC.

Quoted

Noted

As stated, I made a special paper wallet for this

1EM8JhDPsvX8maD552WCRvefyyChDcHeE2

Here is the "special one"


Now ... get the fuck on the ball Proudhound, and pay your drama queen bills.  

Paid my bills   I urge erre to sell what I sent, of course, as bitcoin is clearly in the final gyrations of total failure.

Thank you proudhon, you honoured your word.

I will value this even more than it face value because it's your last  1/10 of btc, this will be the last btc wallet I will ever sell (if ever).

Anyway, I see you have at least another 0.011 btc left, is suppose you could just repeat this with 0.01 the next year when btc reach 100k, and the year later with a mbtc for the 1m usd parity...

Oh wow. What a wonderful laugh, erre (no offense). Bitcoin will absolutely, certainly, and in the most confirmed way never, ever reach $100k, or even $50k or $25k (we are at its top more or less), and, I can't believe I even have to type these words, certainly not in "the next year". Not in the next year. Not in the next 2, 5, 10, 50, or 100 years. Not ever. You don't have to trust me on this, just read the best confirmed sources and look at the charts. It's very obvious, I'm sorry to say.

I will absolutely offer 0.01 BTC to whomever first quotes this message (erre excluded). If bitcoin touches $100k USD $25k on any major exchange (GDAX, stamp, finex, kraken) at anytime within the next 365 days, and not through some silly glitch, then the first person to quote this will receive 0.01 BTC.

My last offer did carry some risk that I was aware of, of course, since it's always possible for silly and irrelevant gyrations (which the current prices are). I obviously got burned by these irrelevant aftershocks. This offer is confirmed to be on my side (and that's not putting it nearly strong enough).

Instead of giving away 0.01 BTC when we hit 25K how about you just admit you were wrong and stop trolling?
That has to be worth it isn’t it?

[suzanne5223]

So I'm making a holiday bet with an in-law.

I offered to pitch in $200 for the holiday X-mas meal that he is cooking for the family. He also has a poor attitude toward Bitcoin.

So instead of giving him dollars, I'm going to make him a bet instead just to prove Bitcoin is better. And he loves bets.

The bet will go like this:

1) I give him $200 in bitcoin instead of cash.

2) BUT, he has to hold it until at least Jan 1st, 2019 and cannot sell no matter the price action.

3) If the value of bitcoin falls below $200 by that date, I will give him enough bitcoin to make up the difference in value.

4) If the value of bitcoin stays equal to or rises above $200, he keeps it all and can sell if he wishes.

It's a win-win bet for him. I'm doing this because we need to convert more people to see the power of this new "digital gold".

Torque,that's a brilliant way of making people who have negative feels about bitcoin to see the potential of bitcoin and I'm sure before it second quarter of next year he will be bitcoiner.  

[neilol-real]

He will probably stop now that you asked him nicely. Its not like he been keeping up this troll for years.

It's hilarious man, chill out

[gembitz]

He will probably stop now that you asked him nicely. Its not like he been keeping up this troll for years.

It's hilarious man, chill out

Jello NEVER quits trolling :-D lol >.> satoshi is the dude<<<

[JimboToronto]

Instead of giving away 0.01 BTC when we hit 25K how about you just admit you were wrong and stop trolling?
That has to be worth it isn’t it?

You don't like entertainment? 

[HairyMaclairy]

I see Gdax hit €9951.  I do hope there is a Croatian equivalent of Carolina.

[gembitz]

Instead of giving away 0.01 BTC when we hit 25K how about you just admit you were wrong and stop trolling?
That has to be worth it isn’t it?

You don't like entertainment?  

the occupy movement was entertaining to start with :-D *everyone i knowing lets go storm wall street<<<weee

[JimboToronto]

I do hope there is a Croatian equivalent of Carolina.

Albania?

[jbreher]

I don't care who ya are... That there's funny.

[Rosewater Foundation]

/ignored

[orpington]

Christ, what happened to "maybe we'll hit $10K by the New Year"?

[cAPSLOCK]

"confirmed sources"....new WO inside joke catchphrase  

Not so new really...

[HairyMaclairy]

Christ, what happened to "maybe we'll hit $10K by the New Year"?

High performance culture.  We hit it about 42 times.

[gembitz]

Christ, what happened to "maybe we'll hit $10K by the New Year"?

NEXT yeer lol