Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

[HairyMaclairy]

I think everyone is just asleep at Bitstamp €. 

[Heater]

<FUD deleted>

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

My head hurts after reading this.

a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap you should put your money where your mouth is and short bitcoin & buy the dip.
b) Otherwise, shut up and stop spreading stupid FUD.

If you spread FUD, I assume it's A.

[d_eddie]

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

Of course. Extreme case: with everyone keeping their bitcoins and never selling, the Wall Street sharks can't buy "real" bitcoin, so their profits can only come on the derivatives side. For example, when they short massively, they can gain on cash-settled futures if the price goes down - provided there's a sucker who's longing those futures. If no hodler engages in derivatives trading, the sucker would be some trader - possibly another Wall street shark on the other side.

The logical question then is: what can a minnow do apart from hodling? Is there a way to benefit from swings in the derivatives market without touching one's btc stash?

[toknormal]

a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap

It's not FUD. It's a coherent and thought about opinion on how the market dynamics could work when a futures market is introduced. Please stfu with your FUD accusations unless you've got a reasonable contribution to make that challenges the scenario. I'll be quite happy to entertain it.

[Heater]

New ATH on Bitstamp $11920  

Finex is having a nap.

[TERA2]

Another slow and torturous ATH, like chinese coin torture.

[jojo69]

BOOM

[toknormal]

Of course. Extreme case: with everyone keeping their bitcoins and never selling, the Wall Street sharks can't buy "real" bitcoin, so their profits can only come on the derivatives side. For example, when they short massively, they can gain on cash-settled futures if the price goes down - provided there's a sucker who's longing those futures. If no hodler engages in derivatives trading, the sucker would be some trader - possibly another Wall street shark on the other side.

The logical question then is: what can a minnow do apart from hodling? Is there a way to benefit from swings in the derivatives market without touching one's btc stash?

The thing is, in the gold market the derivatives price leads the physical price. Whatever the derivative sells for, thats the price dictated to the metal sellers.

We sure as hell do not want to end up like that and it might be wise to start understanding the priorities and dynamics of derivatives markets and how they can potentially impact BTC.

Bitcoin has one huge advantage over gold in that respect because it's liquid. Gold bars do not travel through wires so it cannot be traded electronically in its physical form. That basically hands the entire market over to the derivitaves. Bitcoin on the other hand can be so there's a big damper effect on the futures "tail wagging the dog" scenario.

[Rosewater Foundation]

[jojo69]

Of course. Extreme case: with everyone keeping their bitcoins and never selling, the Wall Street sharks can't buy "real" bitcoin, so their profits can only come on the derivatives side. For example, when they short massively, they can gain on cash-settled futures if the price goes down - provided there's a sucker who's longing those futures. If no hodler engages in derivatives trading, the sucker would be some trader - possibly another Wall street shark on the other side.

The logical question then is: what can a minnow do apart from hodling? Is there a way to benefit from swings in the derivatives market without touching one's btc stash?

The thing is, in the gold market the derivatives price leads the physical price. Whatever the derivative sells for, thats the price dictated to the metal sellers.

We sure as hell do not want to end up like that and it might be wise to start understanding the priorities and dynamics of derivatives markets and how they can potentially impact BTC.

The difference I see is that it is a royal PITA to actually settle in physical PMs (r0ach in the hold of the tramp steamer, sitting on his pallet of Ag, pops yet another no-doze and fingers his spare magazines while eyeing the, troublingly brown skinned, deckhands nervously) whereas Bitcoin settles within about an hour anywhere on the planet.  I think arbitrage is going to bite these futures in the ass.

[d_eddie]

<FUD deleted>

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

My head hurts after reading this.

a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap you should put your money where your mouth is and short bitcoin & buy the dip.
b) Otherwise, shut up and stop spreading stupid FUD.

If you spread FUD, I assume it's A.

It doesn't necessarily look like FUD to me. It could be construed as neutral speculation on what's going to happen next. Actually, that's how I'm receiving it. The summary of the quoted posts could be briefly phrased as "hodl for dear life."

I'm trying to understand if there's a better strategy that exploits the opponent's strength at one's advantage, like financial Aikido for hodlers. So I was stirring discussion, hoping to elicit informed, intelligent replies from savvy forum dwellers.

Incidentally, I think that the scenario depicted by the "FUD" (which, I repeat, doesn't look like FUD to me) is a medium term one. At first, naked shorting without a substantial hard underlying hedge (real btc in hand) can be too risky even for sharks.

[bones261]

Of course. Extreme case: with everyone keeping their bitcoins and never selling, the Wall Street sharks can't buy "real" bitcoin, so their profits can only come on the derivatives side. For example, when they short massively, they can gain on cash-settled futures if the price goes down - provided there's a sucker who's longing those futures. If no hodler engages in derivatives trading, the sucker would be some trader - possibly another Wall street shark on the other side.

The logical question then is: what can a minnow do apart from hodling? Is there a way to benefit from swings in the derivatives market without touching one's btc stash?

The thing is, in the gold market the derivatives price leads the physical price. Whatever the derivative sells for, thats the price dictated to the metal sellers.

We sure as hell do not want to end up like that and it might be wise to start understanding the priorities and dynamics of derivatives markets and how they can potentially impact BTC.

The difference I see is that it is a royal PITA to actually settle in physical PMs, whereas Bitcoin settles within about an hour anywhere on the planet.  I think arbitrage is going to bite these futures in the ass.

Futures investors are going to be like Bitmex investors. 
https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt?lang=en

[jojo69]

Futures investors are going to be like Bitmex investors. 
https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt?lang=en

jesus christ...is that real?

hilarious

[Rosewater Foundation]

<FUD deleted>

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

My head hurts after reading this.

a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap you should put your money where your mouth is and short bitcoin & buy the dip.
b) Otherwise, shut up and stop spreading stupid FUD.

If you spread FUD, I assume it's A.

It doesn't necessarily look like FUD to me. It could be construed as neutral speculation on what's going to happen next. Actually, that's how I'm receiving it. The summary of the quoted posts could be briefly phrased as "hodl for dear life."

I'm trying to understand if there's a better strategy that exploits the opponent's strength at one's advantage, like financial Aikido for hodlers. So I was stirring discussion, hoping to elicit informed, intelligent replies from savvy forum dwellers.

Incidentally, I think that the scenario depicted by the "FUD" (which, I repeat, doesn't look like FUD to me) is a medium term one. At first, naked shorting without a substantial hard underlying hedge (real btc in hand) can be too risky even for sharks.

The handy infographic is a bit much.  

[JimboToronto]

Go figure. I spend some coins and the price immediately soars to a new ATH.  

At least what I spent is dwarfed by what the rest of my coins increased in value.  

Not only that, my overall fiat investment was lowered by about 7.8%.  

[yefi]

those are delicate ecosystems, important for migratory avian and other species

no

don't do that

Screw 'em, they should have evolved more. Bulldoze it and install tiki bars with lasers.

[Heater]

<FUD deleted>

This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it.

The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it.

Indeed.

It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible.

The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities.

i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes.

My head hurts after reading this.

a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap you should put your money where your mouth is and short bitcoin & buy the dip.
b) Otherwise, shut up and stop spreading stupid FUD.

If you spread FUD, I assume it's A.

It doesn't necessarily look like FUD to me. It could be construed as neutral speculation on what's going to happen next. Actually, that's how I'm receiving it. The summary of the quoted posts could be briefly phrased as "hodl for dear life."

I'm trying to understand if there's a better strategy that exploits the opponent's strength at one's advantage, like financial Aikido for hodlers. So I was stirring discussion, hoping to elicit informed, intelligent replies from savvy forum dwellers.

Incidentally, I think that the scenario depicted by the "FUD" (which, I repeat, doesn't look like FUD to me) is a medium term one. At first, naked shorting without a substantial hard underlying hedge (real btc in hand) can be too risky even for sharks.

The argument is that one party can control the price up and down in a controlled way - over and over again.

Now I could dump right now and move the price if I wanted too - but I would get rekt because there are other parties out there ready to pounce if I do something stupid like that.

Now if you are asking me if the volatility will go up or down - I don't know, but this is actually an interesting question.  I'm guessing it will go down because of increased liquidity. The infographic implies it will go up. Time will tell.

[Punisher13142]

12k$ on geminis, all the other exchanges almost there. Nobody cares. This is Bitcoin. I love it  

[nathalie20]

11997 I love my bitcoins for many years