I dunno guys, I think it's going all tulips on us.
Don't break my dream. Of course, it may go Tulips! That is how most of my guess/endeavors in my life have gone. Tulips.
I'm hoping for a break in that trend and Bitcoin and Crypto with all its varied colors and interactions pulls something out that has value and purpose and worth.
But yeah, Tulips is a possibility.
My view of Tulips now, vs 2013 no longer is down to ZERO in price, I figure as 3 broad options below:
(1) I'm 99% sure it will not go to zero and full tulips.*unlike 2013*. Thus my first guess is at worst, BTC will go down to say $3k and go sideways at a 'bit' better rate than gold. Say 2x the
amount of what Gold is worth more or less. On the supposition that this tops out as BTC's natural level of adoption. Then from this point on, would grow more like a traditional investment.
that is if all the FUD'ster's are correct. This is as bad as I can see it going, more or less, tulip wise. Thus this is the BOTTOM of my expectations.
(2) BTC stays say around the present, at $10k having met its niche and adoption in the world as per, as I say FUD and pushback. Thus also from this point onwards acting more in
growth like a traditional investment. Not as great as I'd like, but likely a lot better than I ever would have expected BTC to do in 2013 when I got into this.
(3) BTC goes parabolic again. 7x to 14x the $10k rate because it has NOT met its adoption needs worldwide yet and is indeed revolutionary. This has been kinda a
the pattern in the past. This still is my 'speculative' bet on bitcoin. I think it is at 87% of all Bitcoin has already been mined. Thus if this 3rd option is true, this right
now is some 'pretty' big prices left to obtain or going to be really valuable virtual real estate at only 21 million coins, of which 87% are now in existence for the purposes of BTC.
But, hell, I've been in this since 2013.
So in my case, even my first (now revised version of tulips) option above is still pretty good as a result of when I got into this. I mean even that from when I started would be remarkable.
I mean, I got into mining in 2013, rather than put up my old bbs game server up again and lose $60 in electric a month running it. Yes indeed, I was that frigging bored.
With a Bitcoin miner, I could pay for the electric with the coin as I went along and MAYBE just before the miner became a doorstop, due to difficulty, I'd have 4 or 5 months of my house
utilities paid in FULL! This before I'd have to shut the miner off as not working to make me BTC anymore. Also, being a fine fellow, it was promoted at the time to help the new micro-lending
in India projects back in 2013. So yeah, I'm still surprised indeed. Like ever frigging day since I turned my 1st BTC miner on! Oct 18th, 2013!
Anyway, those are my current (as of today) fears/dreams/expectations in 3 parts.
Not that I know zip. But at least I feel the boogie man of full TULIPS is no longer in play. Bitcoin has been here for 10 years
so I feel it can never be completely worthless at this point. So all the above 3 steps go from my worst case to my best case 1-3. That is my line in the sand of what my expectations are!
We will see. Chumps or Champs, we will be the first to know!
Brad
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