Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[illyiller]

Bears attempting another selloff. It would look like a double top if successful, but the dump isn't getting too far from the looks of it. The daily candle will close a doji at this rate.

Anyone think this is the top?

[Toxic2040]

Good afternoon all

Hope everyone got out and blew the stink off yourselves. I sure did, the upper Methow is stunning right now even if still wet and cold.

Lucky dog (re location). It's hard to do when it is 93F around here.
Maybe will visit WA or OR toward the end of the summer, though.
Never been there, it looks very nice.
https://www.vrbo.com/722563

+1 WOsMerit

I probably should just say it rains all the time and is miserable..   

Truth of the matter is I have been all over the world and I live in this area for a reason. A couple of hours driving and you have 4 distinct climates that are unique and support diverse wildlife. Aside for questionable plate tectonics it is darn near perfect imho. If it gets over 85F I need shade and a body of water to dunk into plus a cold one or two. 

[JayJuanGee]

We are at Dec 3, 2017´s price... 12 days later we were at ATH.

Based on the above we could be in the next bear market within a month.

That is a very good observation. The exponential rise we are in at present is just the sort of move that ends a bull run, and starts a long bear market.

However, comparisons with Dec 2017 are invalid for a number of reasons.

My own observation is that the medium-term chart looks strange compared with 2015-6. Price has significantly deviated from the nice steady early stage bull market of the first few months of the year, and now resembles a late-stage bull run. However, that is not to say that there couldn't be other developments.

That makes for a greater unpredictability.

You could be losing credibility if you were to embrace that bearmarket theme too much, Majormax.  When people speculate about pie in the sky scenarios and happenings that have very low probability of playing out, then that is NOT a "good observation."  So, in that regard, I appreciate your assessment that this is a bit of an uncertain situation rather than something that is flipflopping between bear market to bull market to bear market.

Markets, including bitcoin, don't just switch back and forth from bear to bull to bear without a bit of reason for it.

Yeah, of course, if this market gets too overheated, then we have decent chances to experience a large and perhaps drawn out correction, but that still would not signify that we immediately transitioned back into a "bear market".. just makes no sense....

NOW if such a BTC price correction were to take us below $5k and even stay prolonged for 6 months or more, then that would be another story regarding whether the more accurate assessment would be that we actually would have transitioned back into a bear market...

In other words, if bear wannabes, have not gotten the memo (you seem to recognize this fact), we are currently in a bull market until circumstances justify changing the label, so even if we get a bit too overheated in our current UP, that would not mean that we are all of a sudden, again, transitioned into a "bear market."  Otherwise, I agree with you assessment that we are in a bit of a strange territory, at the moment, but since when have we ever expected bitcoin to act within TA parameters of mature markets, when BTC's market is no where near mature, and there is also a bit of a exponential adoption s-curve that can account for some of the irrationality towards the upside that might actually allow buy support to keep up with some of these seemingly outrageous and ongoing upwards price moves.

[JayJuanGee]

Bears attempting another selloff. It would look like a double top if successful, but the dump isn't getting too far from the looks of it. The daily candle will close a doji at this rate.

Anyone think this is the top?

People have been saying this since $5k, so you are not really saying anything new when you assert that "this looks like the top" for real this time.   

[yefi]

Anyone think this is the top?

On what time scale? The week, maybe. The year, not at all.

[soxxx]

We are at Dec 3, 2017´s price... 12 days later we were at ATH.

Based on the above we could be in the next bear market within a month.

That is a very good observation. The exponential rise we are in at present is just the sort of move that ends a bull run, and starts a long bear market.

However, comparisons with Dec 2017 are invalid for a number of reasons.

My own observation is that the medium-term chart looks strange compared with 2015-6. Price has significantly deviated from the nice steady early stage bull market of the first few months of the year, and now resembles a late-stage bull run. However, that is not to say that there couldn't be other developments.

That makes for a greater unpredictability.

You could be losing credibility if you were to embrace that bearmarket theme too much, Majormax.  When people speculate about pie in the sky scenarios and happenings that have very low probability of playing out, then that is NOT a "good observation."  So, in that regard, I appreciate your assessment that this is a bit of an uncertain situation rather than something that is flipflopping between bear market to bull market to bear market.

Markets, including bitcoin, don't just switch back and forth from bear to bull to bear without a bit of reason for it.

Yeah, of course, if this market gets too overheated, then we have decent chances to experience a large and perhaps drawn out correction, but that still would not signify that we immediately transitioned back into a "bear market".. just makes no sense....

NOW if such a BTC price correction were to take us below $5k and even stay prolonged for 6 months or more, then that would be another story regarding whether the more accurate assessment would be that we actually would have transitioned back into a bear market...

In other words, if bear wannabes, have not gotten the memo (you seem to recognize this fact), we are currently in a bull market until circumstances justify changing the label, so even if we get a bit too overheated in our current UP, that would not mean that we are all of a sudden, again, transitioned into a "bear market."  Otherwise, I agree with you assessment that we are in a bit of a strange territory, at the moment, but since when have we ever expected bitcoin to act within TA parameters of mature markets, when BTC's market is no where near mature, and there is also a bit of a exponential adoption s-curve that can account for some of the irrationality towards the upside that might actually allow buy support to keep up with some of these seemingly outrageous and ongoing upwards price moves.

I think its just the public sentiment too. I think in 2015 there was a real fear that Bitcoin might not ever get back to 1.2k As bad as this previous bear market was, there was still an underlying confidence that we would get back to 10k, 20k, and eventually go to 100k and beyond. I never thought the money left, it was just sitting there waiting for the bottom, in 2015, the money left and wasn't waiting to buy again.

Also, in 2015, people weren't anticipating that the next bull run would take Bitcoin to 20k, you can go back and look at the topics, most people though 2k, 3k or 5k would be the absolute top, and that it wouldn't happen until 2018 or 2019. I think the people buying now are buying for the long term, which means the supply for sale is very limited, with a high demand, the price has to surge. Now if all these people buying don't plan to sell until at least 100k, combined with the demand rising, AND the halving which will further limit the supply. Also the miners in 2015 were likely not holding the way miners are now holding the Bitcoin they earn. I think right now we are indeed setting up for a bull run that will exceed 2017 percentage-wise that will last until 2021.

[jojo69]

I'm back, had a great time, looks like 13 pages of catch up and a new AYH

nice

[Toxic2040]

I'm back, had a great time, looks like 13 pages of catch up and a new AYH

nice

Wb..hope the gig was decent. We might have bent bitcoin a little but it remains unbroken imho.   

Quite far behind in my reading as well. Going to turn in early after a soak in the hot tub.

Good night all.

[jojo69]

... having to report where every single satoshi comes from, which is a nightmare within itself. I have for instance payments from signature campaigns from years ago which im not sure how I should exactly prove they come from there as the websites don't exist anymore (Coinut for instance, used to pay you on their website, and I didn't took any screenshots of the payments or anything... so you tell me). Then there's the forks nightmare, then there's the trading which occurred on exchanges which no longer exist nightmare... and so follows. Those are just motivations to hodl the thing, I don't even want to think about any of that. Im hoping there's some sort of amnesty at some point and we are allowed to sell without having to deliver all those details from ages ago which nobody has kept track of 100%.

This just illustrates how comically antiquated the whole nation-state model is.

If these dinosaurs don't undertake some rapid evolution Bitcoin is just one of the meteors that will spell their extinction.

[jojo69]

What we have here is a failure to go down.

[realr0ach]

... having to report where every single satoshi comes from, which is a nightmare within itself. I have for instance payments from signature campaigns from years ago which im not sure how I should exactly prove they come from there as the websites don't exist anymore (Coinut for instance, used to pay you on their website, and I didn't took any screenshots of the payments or anything... so you tell me). Then there's the forks nightmare, then there's the trading which occurred on exchanges which no longer exist nightmare... and so follows. Those are just motivations to hodl the thing, I don't even want to think about any of that. Im hoping there's some sort of amnesty at some point and we are allowed to sell without having to deliver all those details from ages ago which nobody has kept track of 100%.

This just illustrates how comically antiquated the whole nation-state model is.

What kind of tard reply is this?  A nation is a grouping of people of common ethnic and cultural background.  Saying you want no nations is the same thing as saying you want open borders and infinite migration from the Congo until your town or wherever you lives implodes back to the hunter gatherer stone age level since that's the only type of civilization 3rd world Congolese can function in.  If you don't have borders, some random shithole 2000 miles away having an overpopulation problem then becomes YOUR problem.

[jojo69]

Don't forget: the drones are coming.

You have been warned.

huh? amazon drones?

not quite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA

[lightfoot]

Don't forget: the drones are coming.

You have been warned.

huh? amazon drones?

not quite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA

Eh, hack em and they can mine bitcoin for you. No biggie.

[Hueristic]

And then I Immediately hit a JJG post.

SHIT!

Yeah... who needs that?  

Why don't you just skim those damned "JJG posts"?

It's a must these days! I remember back in the day when you could actually read a JJG post catch up with the thread and sneak 8 hours of sleep in!

Sorry to hear that matters have been deteriorating regarding catchingupability.  Sucks!!!!!  Whatchyagonnaduuuu?

I'm considering Drugs, I ,mean M0ar Drugs than normal!

[Hueristic]

Don't forget: the drones are coming.

You have been warned.

huh? amazon drones?

not quite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA

What about these drones?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl1w6VDEWq4&feature=youtu.be&t=36

[bkbirge]

Don't forget: the drones are coming.

You have been warned.

huh? amazon drones?

not quite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA

What about these drones?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl1w6VDEWq4&feature=youtu.be&t=36

I like this kind of drone better
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVkFvyhos5U&t=30s

[Hueristic]

What about these drones?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl1w6VDEWq4&feature=youtu.be&t=36

I like this kind of drone better
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVkFvyhos5U&t=30s

But mines a real Botnet.

Day two at MoneroKon in Denver. Interesting intercontinental panel discussion on regulation.

Sarang Noether, Jerry Brito, and Eric Voorhees here in Denver, and Amber Baldet, Jack Gavigan, and Peter van Valkenburgh at Zcon1 in Croatia.

Interesting thinking through governmental regulation from a privacy coin viewpoint.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsJaMw-3gGE

[savetherainforest]

And then I Immediately hit a JJG post.

SHIT!

Yeah... who needs that?  

Why don't you just skim those damned "JJG posts"?

Your glasses are not pink enough!!!

Welcome back from your hiatus.

Looking forward to the return of attempting to read your stream of consciousness, half-baked, quasi-incoherent, but mostly bullish posts on a more regular.  

The best option when everyone feels too much negativity and they want to share it with you: is to just go away and let them suffer until you can come back and find them happy and full of optimism again !!!

[jojo69]

I'm back, had a great time, looks like 13 pages of catch up and a new AYH

nice

Wb..hope the gig was decent. We might have bent bitcoin a little but it remains unbroken imho.    

Quite far behind in my reading as well. Going to turn in early after a soak in the hot tub.

Good night all.

Actually, it was great!  Both the other bands were awesome.  We had a really good night.  But most of all, actually, this is going to take a little digression.

In general, the internet has really killed the bar scene.  20 years ago, young people were going out, drinking, dancing and getting wild.  These days most of them are sitting in their cells playing fortnight or whatever.  The bars are nothing like I remember from my youth.

This town we were in though, in the summertime, it is a regular scene.  It was awesome to play to a bar actually full of people hootin' an' hollerin' and getting wild.  Chicks making out in the corner, arm wrestling matches, spilled beer, some light moshing...it was great!

I did bring you guys one thing too, I thought the thread would appreciate this art from the bar

[Hueristic]

Actually, it was great!  Both the other bands were awesome.  We had a really good night.  But most of all, actually, this is going to take a little digression.

In general, the internet has really killed the bar scene.  20 years ago, young people were going out, drinking, dancing and getting wild.  These days most of them are sitting in their cells playing fortnight or whatever.  The bars are nothing like I remember from my youth.

This town we were in though, in the summertime, it is a regular scene.  It was awesome to play to a bar actually full of people hootin' an' hollerin' and getting wild.  Chicks making out in the corner, arm wrestling matches, spilled beer, some light moshing...it was great!

I did bring you guys one thing too, I thought the thread would appreciate this art from the bar

[img width =50]https://imgur.com/80cd33f7-a664-476f-8324-b11bb02ee6b3[/img]

Where I live MAD and tax collecting Cops killed all the bars.


Edit: Thats one cool fucking wall!  Image wasn't loading before.