Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pereira4]

I refreshed coinmarketcap and see Bitcoin way above $13k....what the heck!!!!!

Seems cool, but it will be below $10k again, and eventually below $1k again. We probably won't ever see the price above $15k, and almost certainly it will never create new ATHs. There are too many confirmed problems with bitcoin as I have verified over the years. China, Russia, and now Facebook, make it a near certainty. Shorting is wise, but not with too much leverage because bitcoin is unstable enough that random and irrational movements can wipe you out, but the downtrend to zero is definitely still on track if you just look at the data.

The mighty proudhon is back predicting the up and coming doomsday of Bitcoin. Pack it up, it's over.




Anytime now.

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[jojo69]

@Dire sorry bro 
@jojo:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/06/09/what-facebooks-cryptocurrency-means-6-predictions/ 

tnx bro

[sam_ti_dyatel]

0.618 achieved
prophecy

[bigdave1024]

Is this a pump or news behind this run?

[becoin]

The dollar is dropping like a stone against bitcoin. Confidence is lost. Where is the plunge protection team? Why don't they trigger the circuit breakers?

[lightfoot]

Well guess the jackwads at that ATM saved me MONEY! Glad I didn't sell $100 this morning. Now on to something else....

[Last of the V8s]

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[kenzawak]

Don't know what to say, I'm too wow !



Life's good...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is this a pump or news behind this run?

No fucking idea buddy, there must be something behind this kind of run.

[jbreher]

Second day of bitcoin 2019. Insights from Edward Snowden.



"Privacy is not about having something to hide. Privacy is about having something to protect."

(Paraphrased): the community is focused on creating the next 'First National' [Bank -ed]. We need to be focused on creating the first Post-National Bank'

"The lesson that Satoshi teaches us is that opsec works."

Paraphrasing again: I won't say whether I hold any bitcoin or monero or any other cryptocurrency, but I will say this. The service used to transfer the trove of documents to the news agencies that broke the story were paid for with bitcoin.

Sanding ovation.

Intermission music: Uprising. Muse. Fitting.

Actually quite erudite and insightful. Sorry to reduce many great nuanced points to a handful of bon mots.

[ivomm]

I think there is a good chance we get a new ATH in the following weeks. Most of us expected it sometime after the halving, but things developed unexpectedly if favour of a much earlier ATH breach. I feel sorry for bears trolling about a correction at 4K, then 5k, then 6K,.... and now at 13K. But it didn't happen! These shorters are just comparing charts from previous years and trying to make predictions. But as their posts show, they have little or no knowledge of the current market situation.  The fact is that there are so many circumstances that are different compared to 2017 and all are in favour of Bitcoin. I'll try to explain to those who didn't follow closely the market in 2017:

1. Why in 2017 there were so many 40%-ish corrections, and in the last 6 months we had none?

Answer: In Jan 2017, when the price was heading to beat the ATH at $1140-ish, a sudden news appeared on the website of PBOC (people bank of China). It threatened the major China's exchanges with a ban if they don't meet the requirements. This lead to a sudden 40% crash. Since back then 95% of all Bitcoin trades were made in China's exchanges, the panic was huge. Not only that, but  similar news appeared multiple times in Jan, Feb and in Sept. 2017. There was the first ETF denial - another crash. Also, in June there was a decision for a fork, which stalled the market for the Summer. Then in November another more dangereous fork was looming, but thankfully it was cancelled. Then Bcashers started the attack of 'flippening' by selling over 100K BTC in a few days and buying over 2mil bcash. Of course, none of these news matter in 2019.

2. Was the price 20K too high and because of that there was a  80%-ish crash for a year?

Answer. Each time the last ATH is surpassed, traders feel fear whether the price is not too high. Since in 2017 the raise from 700$ to 20K was too big, this fear prevailed. The whole 2018 traders were afraid how low Bitcoin can crash and the buys were pretty low compared to the sells. Does this mean that the price was not sustainable if we exclude the fear? The answer is no, since the price managed to increase with so many bad news and corrections in 2017!

3. When we reach 20K will be there a similar crash?

Answer. There might be some 'bigger'correction because of the fear of repeating the history. But it won't last for a year and 3 months for sure, because of the next halving. If it happens, it will be for several weeks/months until the ATH is finally breached. The worst possible scenario is to have a day with a 40% crash from the top, and by the end of the day 20% to be recovered. Then slowly for several weeks the remaining 20% will be recovered. Or we can just blaze through 20K like a knife in butter, who knows!

And finally, two more observations:

4. Altcoins boomed also at the end of 2017. This was a huge loss of cash, that might have been used for buying bitcoins.

5. Compared to 2017, some of the volume of Bitfinex is now redirected towards  Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase.  This makes it more difficult for the price to crash. At the same time, the overall volume of all major exchanges remains half of what was in 2017 (Bitfinex was a beast then), according to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&t=b (not working ATM, and even if we include Binance, which wasn't a thing in 2017). This is because hodlers bring more coins after multiple ATH's and it becomes more difficult for the market to absorb the new coins. While now, hodlers know that 20K will be reached and breached and don't bring many new coins on the exchanges. So traders have fewer and fewer coins to buy. At the same time, tens and hundreds of millions new comers enter exchanges. Their fiat potential is much bigger than the newly mined coins, considering that even in 2017 their potential was most probably enough to reach 40-50K.

P.s. As I was writing this post, the price shooted from 12800 to over 13400!!! Way to go, Bitcoin! Good job!

[kenzawak]

Is this a pump or news behind this run?

No fucking idea buddy, there must be something behind this kind of run.

Still wanna sell at 25k ?
You know that's next week, right ?

[Ibian]

So I just woke up, glanced at the price. Oh, it's still at xx400... wait... didn't that digit used to be a 2 instead of a 3...?

Talk about a power nap. Made a years working income while sleeping just now.

[aesma]

I bought back coins this morning (at a higher price than I had sold...) and now the magic number I was thinking about might happen today as things are going.

And I have revised this number once, by computing how much income tax I would have to pay to be good with the taxman, that's about 35% tax, so I added that to the number.

FOMO I can understand, but it's also too many people with lots of money they don't know where else to invest in. I don't know such people, I'm almost the only person I know that owns stocks for example.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is this a pump or news behind this run?

No fucking idea buddy, there must be something behind this kind of run.

Still wanna sell at 25k ?
You know that's next week, right ?

I want to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in X city centre outright for rental so yeah, I’m going to.
I have plenty of coin for the real business at $100,000

I’m trying to make sure I never have to worry about income again.
I have one apartment that I rent out, I want another one.

The idea is to get a fairly big monthly fiat income so I don’t have to do anything ever again & I can enjoy my real stash.

[pereira4]

hello

I have sold half my coins on the way up, not wanting to go back to so "little" value as before. Now of course it seems stupid to have done that, but catching the top is not my forte. When this bull run started I figured, when my stash is worth a certain amount (one with enough 0s), I'm selling everything but 1 coin.

Now I don't know. On the one end, if such bust and bull runs can still happen, then the logic is to sell at one point yes, but with the goal to buy back later when it will have crashed. I expect I could double my stash at least from doing that.

Then again, maybe it's the last bull run, and once it's down, if I convert from cash to coins again, I will have double the coins, but which will never rise again.

I know some of you have enough coins to play all scenarios, but not me.

When I say the plan was to sell once enough 0s reached, the idea was to get that money out and invest it in something else, probably a mix of real estate and stocks, or just real estate.

Now it seems playing with coins at least a couple years more might be well worth it.

But it's such a wild ride !

Well have fun paying massive tax, being put on on some sort of list, and also get some good lawyers. Biggest reason to hold is that even if your bitcoins are from licit origin, it's a gamble how the government will deal about it.

Also lol at this is the last bullrun.

[infofront]

This is unsustainable. The price will be under $10k before the end of the year, and stay there until Libra takes over. Bitcoin is done. Short bitcoin.

Merited for making me laugh. I'm borrowing the jbreher rule.

[Raja_MBZ]

Bitcoin dominance touching 63%.

Is this a pump or news behind this run?

No fucking idea buddy, there must be something behind this kind of run.

Still wanna sell at 25k ?
You know that's next week, right ?

I want to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in X city centre outright for rental so yeah, I’m going to.
I have plenty of coin for the real business at $100,000

I’m trying to make sure I never have to worry about income again.
I have one apartment that I rent out, I want another one.

The idea is to get a fairly big monthly fiat income so I don’t have to do anything ever again & I can enjoy my real stash.

Sounds great. Good luck with your plans mate!

[Icygreen]

hello

I have sold half my coins on the way up, not wanting to go back to so "little" value as before. Now of course it seems stupid to have done that, but catching the top is not my forte. When this bull run started I figured, when my stash is worth a certain amount (one with enough 0s), I'm selling everything but 1 coin.

Now I don't know. On the one end, if such bust and bull runs can still happen, then the logic is to sell at one point yes, but with the goal to buy back later when it will have crashed. I expect I could double my stash at least from doing that.

Then again, maybe it's the last bull run, and once it's down, if I convert from cash to coins again, I will have double the coins, but which will never rise again.

I know some of you have enough coins to play all scenarios, but not me.

When I say the plan was to sell once enough 0s reached, the idea was to get that money out and invest it in something else, probably a mix of real estate and stocks, or just real estate.

Now it seems playing with coins at least a couple years more might be well worth it.

But it's such a wild ride !

Well have fun paying massive tax, being put on on some sort of list, and also get some good lawyers. Biggest reason to hold is that even if your bitcoins are from licit origin, it's a gamble how the government will deal about it.

Also lol at this is the last bullrun.

I bought back coins this morning (at a higher price than I had sold...) and now the magic number I was thinking about might happen today as things are going.

And I have revised this number once, by computing how much income tax I would have to pay to be good with the taxman, that's about 35% tax, so I added that to the number.

FOMO I can understand, but it's also too many people with lots of money they don't know where else to invest in. I don't know such people, I'm almost the only person I know that owns stocks for example.

This made me laugh. Good on ya. HODL   BTW congrats on becoming hero!

[DireWolfM14]

@Dire sorry bro 

Don't be, I think I'd rather be wrong.  It was only 0.08BTC.  Whoooohoooooo!