If you study the charts and the confirmed data you can clearly see that this marks the end of the short-term, irrational up-trend. We've resumed bitcoin's downtrend. Like I said earlier, $15k is likely unobtainable (on any time-scale). Bitcoin will never set ATHs again. Soon it'll be clear enough to everyone in the market. 2017 was bitcoin's last big move. The downtrend will hold. By 2020 $10k bitcoins will be a dream. 2021, $1k. By the end of that decade bitcoin will be a hilarious memory.
Well, good to know where you stand. I gather you have bought and held a lot on this theory in order to capitalize profits on the way down? Or future bet thereof?
Myself, I see it in the framework of 10 years of bitcoin and use/adoption worldwide in countries where you hide gold in the basement for bad times.
Store of value wise. Bitcoin has adoption and use at worst 2-3x that of the store of value that is gold.
1) Bitcoin will never go full tulips. IMHO, it will never go below $3k in that it as a virtual gold has a better use than gold as a store of value. So at worst
Bitcoin at 3K will go sideways due to use and adoption and grow like a traditional investment from then on.
2) Bitcoin will pump to 10k and above and say at 10-15k the same thing. Adoption is met/use/etc and Bitcoin then grows from this point at the rate of a traditional investment.
3) Bitcoin will do as it has done 7 times in the past go full parabolic past the ATH or even more. Because not yet even in the adoption phase yet in its store of value growth.
Also remember, I'd say 1/2 or more of ALL Bitcoin out there is owned by HODL'ers who held from the ATH all the way down to the 3.2k BTC lows. They have not sold out yet.
There are no 'weak hands' in that group anymore. They have all drunk the kool-aid.
As a result in the future, there is only those speculating crypto/BTC and newer. The last 3rd group besides hodler's and speculators are the newbies..getting in.
There is top 1/2 or more group of Bitcoin in HODL mode, there is no middle group, they sold and bottom new adopters, just drank the kool-aid too group.
Thus, if you think 87% of all the bitcoin has been mined with increasing difficulty and that 1/2 the HODL'ers being Kool-Aid drinkers not likely to sell all and get out.
Then, I disagree.
We will see, chump or champ. But for those 1/2 HODL'ers I guess about motives like myself, are in at a much lower rate, likely to panic and sell someday with BTC under $1k demise.
So with that bedrock, of long term HODL'ers and adoption/increasing scarcity of coins, I can't see BTC going below 3K ever and I think 20k is more likely than the 3k scenario.
My 3-way risk on how I look at HODL mode above. There are a lot of us at even the 3K or 1K BTC price are still doing more than well from our first foray into Bitcoin.
We will see chump or champ we will see.
Brad
This is unsustainable. The price will be under $10k before the end of the year, and stay there until Libra takes over. Bitcoin is done. Short bitcoin.
Should not you avoid posting during the bull runs?
No. That's when people need a solid dose of good advice.
The shit must be really really bad, for the Central Banks to resurrect your sorry arse?
I only get paid by 2 or 3 banks, and they do it because they want me to spread an important message to protect people from financial ruin. Bitcoin is dangerous and has failed. Just look at the clear data. Bitcoin is going to trend to zero. Sure, there will be ups as it moves down, but bitcoin will ruin more people financially than it will help, so be careful. The data is clear, bitcoin is an unsafe investment and current prices are just crazy death rattles.
Well, hell at least he is honest about where his 'bread is buttered'.
Brad
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