Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I’d like to be able to HODL my entire stash for another 10-15 years but I have life goals & if/when we see $70,000+ I won’t lie, I’m going to have to staggered sell maybe 75%.

I will keep 25% long term though.

I can’t put myself & my girl through another mentally crippling multi year bear market.

[1715014657]

1715014657

[1715014657]

1715014657

[1715014657]

1715014657

[1715014657]

1715014657

[1715014657]

1715014657

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating around $11k after this week's jump up to 5 digits... currently $10986USD/$14747CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Almost time to start moving up again.

Go Bitcoin go.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

[gentlemand]

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.

[vapourminer]

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.

[Indymoney]

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.

My plans are also same but have very little difference I want to live in village with my kids as its also very exciting need some good amount for paying bills and this is also boring but still very good for me.

[goldkingcoiner]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating around $11k after this week's jump up to 5 digits... currently $10986USD/$14747CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Almost time to start moving up again.

Go Bitcoin go.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

More like: Don't sell. Period.

Whats that? Your brother needs an operation? Not as much as I need 100k per Bitcoin. GTFO of my Lambo dreams.

I keep going away from this site and now I want to be back for a while but I did notice someone's signature campaign had their business logo on a trucker hat.

What is this bullshit! People copying the wall observer trademark!

I noticed the same.

... Goddamn shitcoin promoters!

[cAPSLOCK]

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I’d like to be able to HODL my entire stash for another 10-15 years but I have life goals & if/when we see $70,000+ I won’t lie, I’m going to have to staggered sell maybe 75%.

I will keep 25% long term though.

I can’t put myself & my girl through another mentally crippling multi year bear market.

This I TOTALLY understand.  But I also believe the last 4 years have hardened me significantly.

[cAPSLOCK]

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

Consider this script:

-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here  
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k.  I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.

That is the point of greatest pain.  A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God.  I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."

They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).

Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.

This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt.  A LOT.  I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for.  And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.

Of course I could be wrong.

P.S On the other side of this?  The hyper bullish version?  We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far.  There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink.  I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys.  They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains.  This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through.  But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.

[gentlemand]

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

2014/15 carried with it the whiff of it still being some sort of fluke that could fade away. This time around it has no doubt hurt for many but you'd have to be pretty stupid and lacking in vision to not think the future is bright no matter what the short term does to you.

[cAPSLOCK]

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

I am remembering the way it was right at the time we blasted through 1k for the second time and then fell to what was it? 800 or so?

I think a LOT of people pulled ripcords around that time.

My scenario is directly inspired by a move of a LARGE amount of my personal holdings onto Kraken, and then a sober realization of the danger I was in and a move back off.  I did not sell any BTC, but i lost an enormous amount of privacy because of that emotionally charged indescretion.

[philipma1957]

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.

It is a ratio thing.
Always be prepared to sell some, but not all.

Also when people say numbers like :
     10,000 ----------- been there done that
     20,000 ----------- been there done that

     50,000 ----------- to move to this number by 2021 means 922,339,050,000 or 922 billion

the world's money supply is easily able to achieve bumping btc to 50,000 or 922 billion by the years end
the world has well over     49,220 billion in wealth

so pushing btc to 50,000 by years end is not that hard to do.

So the upside if you have 3 coins right now is 150,000 by 2021 is possible.

If your coins cost you 3,900 x 3 = 11,700

do your math and figure what to sell.

If you want to be highest risk hold it all risking 11,700 for a possible 150,000

If you want to be lowest risk sell it all.  you get about 33,000 - 11,700 = 21,300 profit a certain win.

If you are sane and want to do what you said in your post

you sell 1.1 coins gives you 12100 you invested 11,700. you are up 400 usd.

and you have 1.9 coins in hand.

Set a price point for next sell say 20,000

do ratios  the upside is the 1.9 could go to 95,000

at 20,000 if you sell .4.  you get 8,000

and still have 1.5 coins.

You can alter the numbers since I do not know your cost basis or your coin wealth. But it is the 50-50 game or 60-40 game or 70-30 game I am playing.
  

[bkbirge]

Talking of strategies to sell some, what are strategies being planned by others here?

• Where do you invest/save your new stack of fiat in the current economy?

Moon colony apartment penthouse. It's a growth industry and the view would be spectacular.

[Hueristic]

It’s degenerate gambling imo

I don't see your point, whats wrong with that? 

[-CryptoViking-]

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.

My plans are also same but have very little difference I want to live in village with my kids as its also very exciting need some good amount for paying bills and this is also boring but still very good for me.

I am with you guys, I want to move back to my village, buy some more land, plant a forest, grow my own food, have my own water and secure jobs for my family and close friends on my ranch so they can all eat and live healthier and less stressful lives surrounded by nature.

Hopefully pass that down the generations after I'm gone.

[Hueristic]

I keep going away from this site and now I want to be back for a while but I did notice someone's signature campaign had their business logo on a trucker hat.

What is this bullshit! People copying the wall observer trademark!

I noticed the same.

... Goddamn shitcoin promoters!

We should gang bang that shitcoin thread, where is it?

[JimboToronto]

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

More like: Don't sell. Period.

Whats that? Your brother needs an operation? Not as much as I need 100k per Bitcoin. GTFO of my Lambo dreams.

What I meant was: don't sell unnecessarily for mere fiat "money".

Buying medical services or retirement homes (or fine foods or beverages... maybe even hookers, Lambos, and blow, depending on your tastes) is Bitcoin well spent, as is discharging all debt.

Selling bitcoins to bank dollars (or euros or pesos, etc.) is just plain stupid, although many people do it.

Keep your profits in Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21

Personally, I do believe that some deviation from a self-created plan (or even a plan that any guy might have taken from someone else) can be employed, but having a pretty strongly thought out plan is way better than not having much if any kind of plan, so at least if you already have a buy/sell/HODL plan, you at least know from what you are deviating, in the event that you consider or employ deviation to your plan.

Many of us likely realize that one of the major issues with mindrust is that he seemed to have not been sufficiently convicted in his BTC plan, and then when he actually deviated from his plan, it deviated in a very extreme way, like throwing out both the bathwater and the baby.. and then coming up with some feel good, and likely quite inferior plan.

Sure, we cannot exactly get in the head of mindrust, even though he did give us a decent amount of contemporary thoughts that he was having at the time of his crisis, and so even he disclosed along the way and during the crisis that he was having that he was really NOT very prepared some some extreme scenarios, and accordingly, he was already planning to fly by the seat of his pants, somewhat, if any extreme scenario were to unfold... part of the reason that I am such a fan of incrementalism in something like bitcoin - even though probably many of us do imagine some extreme scenarios that might even cause each of us to lose our shit.

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21

3 day RSI above 85 -> sell a bit.

Buy back lower.

Repeat.

Easy.

Have you been employing such strategy over the years, Wekkel?  If so, for how long, and if so, did you screw up some times along the way? or did you take some time to figure out such a seemingly objective approach to this matter?

Also, how do you know when and how much to buy back?  Is there a certain measurement that you use, or do you just "wing" the easy-peasy part?

 

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21

3 day RSI above 85 -> sell a bit.

Buy back lower.

Repeat.

Easy.

Easy for some, hard for most

Again.  I am beat to the punchline.     Only by 9 hours, but who is counting besides me?

[bkbirge]

[JayJuanGee]

Sell some short term so I can try to buy MOAR lower?

I’ve been heavily invested in corn for 6 years & never tried to day trade. It’s degenerate gambling imo & even if you’re an expert at TA, market movements etc you probably only have a 50/50 or 60/40 success rate. It’s not for me but maybe I’m just too stupid.

What I will do is when I think (it’ll be a total guess) we’re near some kind of top next year I’ve leave 6 figures on an exchange & at least try to buy some of the huge bulk of my stash I’ve sold back. It’ll be the first time I’ve ever done something like that. I might get to buy some of my stash back cheap but if I don’t, no problem, the rest of the coins I sold will be more than enough so I never have to work again, hookers, Lambos, blow etc.

I think that you have precisely identified the issue, LFC.

When you sell your BTC, you gotta be ready, willing and able to leave the proceeds of those sales on the table forever and ever and ever and NOT be planning, hoping or wishing to buy back lower.

So, it appears that you have never been willing to take that chance, and I doubt that anyone can fault you for that personal inclination, even if some of us might come to differing conclusions regarding at what points to sell some BTC and how much.

I have actually seen you revise your thinking on this matter through the years, and probably both of us can recall that you had gone through tentative plans to sell very large portions of your BTC in around the $50k region (surely a price that we have never reached, yet), but you seemed to have modified your thinking and even revised plans that are still going to allow you to reach your hookers, lambos and blow goals in somewhat revised ways that are presumably even better tailored to your own situation, including your risk tolerance and other personal variables.

Anyhow, I admit that some members might get somewhat bored with my repetition, and I have even had to revise my psychology along the way too, because when I was first selling BTC in late 2015, I was having some difficult times to really psychologically leave those sales behind - and surely, I have way fewer psychological issues in that direction these days, and my thinking is more strongly in the arena that if I make any sale of my BTC whether it is .001, or .0352818 or some other BTC amount, I am largely ready, willing and able to leave those BTC behind if the price does not return to my preset points.  

Sure, I might tweak my sell or my buy back plan here and there along the way, and I do make some tweaks on a fairly regular basis, but my overall psychology has become a lot stronger in terms of leaving my sales behind when I make them, and part of my own justification for that comfortable feeling is that I believe that I had largely over-invested in BTC 2014/2015, so I am more than willing to part with some of those BTC along the way.

By the way, regarding a tweak that I had done in the past couple of days, I had looked at my BTC sell settings between about $11,500 and about $14,500, and I thought that those BTC sell orders were not quite right. There was something "off" about them in terms of really harmonizing with my psychology and my then thoughts of my finances.. and of course, some psychology can change a bit when the BTC price goes shooting up $2k in less than a week with $1,700 of that price appreciation within about 12 hours.. hahahahaha.. Anyhow, I tweaked all of my BTC sell orders between $11,500 and about $14,500 that caused for better harmony and maybe even changes in the overall added up amounts being sold within that price range by somewhere in the 5% arena...

I also had various outstanding BTC sell orders between $15,500-ish and $36k-ish that had a mixture of placement dates between early 2018 and even a few stragglers that were placed in mid-2019.  I reviewed those BTC sell orders and I thought about them in terms of my current personal situation, and the punchline is that I didn't feel any need to adjust any of those $15,500 to $36k BTC sell orders, even though they had already been in place for a few years.. but I did have to make a few minor (maybe technical and not really amount-wise) adjustments to some BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k for an exchange that I had NOT been using very much in early 2017/2018.. so I had not yet created those BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k, which I accomplished in the past couple of days...

Side note: interesting that with this particular BTC price move, I ended up being more motivated to toothpick level analyze all of my BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k, when I had not been motivated to do such tweaking at any earlier date, including our April-June 2019 BTC price rise to $13,880.  That April-June 2019 BTC price rise (and/or any subsequent BTC price movement, until this recent one) did not motivate me to even consider tweaking those $22k to $36k BTC sell orders.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-grifters-chapter-1-kodak/

They’re. Not. Even. Pretending. Anymore.

Who is “they”?

On the corporate-grift side, it’s Kodak Chairman and CEO Jim Continenza (SEC CIK 0001197594), who picked up about 3 million shares and cheap options over the past year. It’s Kodak board member George Karfunkel (SEC CIK 0001085765), of the private equity and banking Zyskind-Karfunkel family, with his 6.4 million shares. It’s Kodak board member Philippe Katz (SEC CIK 0001579836), who owns about 4.3 million shares through at least five shell companies.

Who is “they”?

On the government-grift side, it’s Donald Trump, who gets a press conference and a talking point.

It’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who sit on the DFC board of directors and approved this deal, each pocketing a favor.

It’s Larry Kudlow, University of Rochester alum and friend of Kodak, who pockets a BIG favor.

It’s Adam Boehler, 41 year-old CEO of the DFC, who cements a lucrative career once his government “service” is complete.

etc good stuff