Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

Consider this script:

-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here  
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k.  I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.

That is the point of greatest pain.  A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God.  I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."

They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).

Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.

This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt.  A LOT.  I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for.  And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.

Of course I could be wrong.

P.S On the other side of this?  The hyper bullish version?  We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far.  There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink.  I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys.  They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains.  This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through.  But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.

I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.

Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.

It's just not going to happen.  The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.

Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.

Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the  2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.

Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
 
nohomo

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

I am remembering the way it was right at the time we blasted through 1k for the second time and then fell to what was it? 800 or so?

I think a LOT of people pulled ripcords around that time.

My scenario is directly inspired by a move of a LARGE amount of my personal holdings onto Kraken, and then a sober realization of the danger I was in and a move back off.  I did not sell any BTC, but i lost an enormous amount of privacy because of that emotionally charged indescretion.

Yep... exactly.. you are proving my point.

Those 3-4 months, right around the beginning of 2017 seemed like a long fuckign time, while they were happening, but the reality of the matter is that they were a blip on the radar in the whole scheme of things.. and looking back, we largely sailed right the hell past previous ATH of $1,163... even though that sailing past took nearly 4 months.... hahahahahaha

Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.

It is a ratio thing.
Always be prepared to sell some, but not all.

Also when people say numbers like :
     10,000 ----------- been there done that
     20,000 ----------- been there done that

     50,000 ----------- to move to this number by 2021 means 922,339,050,000 or 922 billion

the world's money supply is easily able to achieve bumping btc to 50,000 or 922 billion by the years end
the world has well over     49,220 billion in wealth

so pushing btc to 50,000 by years end is not that hard to do.

So the upside if you have 3 coins right now is 150,000 by 2021 is possible.

If your coins cost you 3,900 x 3 = 11,700

do your math and figure what to sell.

If you want to be highest risk hold it all risking 11,700 for a possible 150,000

If you want to be lowest risk sell it all.  you get about 33,000 - 11,700 = 21,300 profit a certain win.

If you are sane and want to do what you said in your post

you sell 1.1 coins gives you 12100 you invested 11,700. you are up 400 usd.

and you have 1.9 coins in hand.

Set a price point for next sell say 20,000

do ratios  the upside is the 1.9 could go to 95,000

at 20,000 if you sell .4.  you get 8,000

and still have 1.5 coins.

You can alter the numbers since I do not know your cost basis or your coin wealth. But it is the 50-50 game or 60-40 game or 70-30 game I am playing.

philipma1957 is way nicer than me.

 

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[lightfoot]

You ever buy a Ledger?

https://twitter.com/Ledger/status/1288452973811703810

@Ledger

Our data show that 1M email addresses and 9500 detailed personal information leaked.

[...]

https://twitter.com/trezor/status/1288463431750885383

@Trezor

Fact of the day:
After 90 days, we get rid of all sensitive data about your order in our e-shop database (even e-mail addresses).

[...]

https://gdpr-info.eu/art-17-gdpr/

The "right to erasure". I'd take advantage of that, but many non-EU citizens might not be aware about it and a good amount of EU citizens, too.

Good for Trezor. As I said earlier the only reason I could see a vendor holding onto an address or email would be to sell it to Lamborghini. Or the US secret police.

Hint: Get a drop box for mail and such.

[JayJuanGee]

I understand that sometimes some forum members do not want to share too many of their buy/sell point specific details because it could screw up their plan if others end up front-running their various buy/sell BTC price points in the even their plan gets too much publicity or further adoption.

You ever buy a Ledger?

Hypothetically, yes.  

eth dragging us up. need eth to 'invest' in defi
defi is not the scam we want but it's the scam that will drive this bull, just like ico's last time
shrug

You deserve this V8!!!!!!  



I am sorry, V8.  I provokedly slapped in your direction upon reading about shitcoinery before I realized your ambivalent shrug.  

My bbbbbaaaaaaadddddd.

Sucks to be me.. so many BTC emotional roller coasters..    

isnt that part of what we signed up for?  [...]

Fair enough... you party poop.

I was largely just emoticating for funzies... and for exaggeration purposes.

I mean if you look at the contents of my earlier post.  I was saying that based on recent BTC price rises, I had pre-ordered hookers, lambos and blow, but then after reading OutOfMemory's negative nancy price prediction post, I had to go through the efforts of cancelling my seemingly premature pre-orders.

Could anyone really take those kinds of representations seriously, except maybe metaphorically?  

i knew you were exaggerating, i answered in a general way more for some of the new peeps here.

and admit it.. youre hooked on the rollarcoaster like the rest of us. my crack habit was easy to kick. this? NEVER

I was trained (some label that as "programmed" - deny... ) to deny first, and ask questions later.

In other words, I am never going to admit to anything whether material or trivial, even if I might have perhaps made some seeming statement, at some point, that appears to be an in the ballpark of an admission.. It is not.  You must have misread the context.    

[serveria.com]

I was trained (some label that as "programmed" - deny... ) to deny first, and ask questions later.

[philipma1957]

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

Consider this script:

-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here  
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k.  I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.

That is the point of greatest pain.  A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God.  I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."

They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).

Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.

This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt.  A LOT.  I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for.  And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.

Of course I could be wrong.

P.S On the other side of this?  The hyper bullish version?  We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far.  There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink.  I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys.  They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains.  This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through.  But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.

I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.

Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.

It's just not going to happen.  The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.

Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.

Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the  2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.

Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
 
nohomo

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

I am remembering the way it was right at the time we blasted through 1k for the second time and then fell to what was it? 800 or so?

I think a LOT of people pulled ripcords around that time.

My scenario is directly inspired by a move of a LARGE amount of my personal holdings onto Kraken, and then a sober realization of the danger I was in and a move back off.  I did not sell any BTC, but i lost an enormous amount of privacy because of that emotionally charged indescretion.

Yep... exactly.. you are proving my point.

Those 3-4 months, right around the beginning of 2017 seemed like a long fuckign time, while they were happening, but the reality of the matter is that they were a blip on the radar in the whole scheme of things.. and looking back, we largely sailed right the hell past previous ATH of $1,163... even though that sailing past took nearly 4 months.... hahahahahaha

Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.

It is a ratio thing.
Always be prepared to sell some, but not all.

Also when people say numbers like :
     10,000 ----------- been there done that
     20,000 ----------- been there done that

     50,000 ----------- to move to this number by 2021 means 922,339,050,000 or 922 billion

the world's money supply is easily able to achieve bumping btc to 50,000 or 922 billion by the years end
the world has well over     49,220 billion in wealth

so pushing btc to 50,000 by years end is not that hard to do.

So the upside if you have 3 coins right now is 150,000 by 2021 is possible.

If your coins cost you 3,900 x 3 = 11,700

do your math and figure what to sell.

If you want to be highest risk hold it all risking 11,700 for a possible 150,000

If you want to be lowest risk sell it all.  you get about 33,000 - 11,700 = 21,300 profit a certain win.

If you are sane and want to do what you said in your post

you sell 1.1 coins gives you 12100 you invested 11,700. you are up 400 usd.

and you have 1.9 coins in hand.

Set a price point for next sell say 20,000

do ratios  the upside is the 1.9 could go to 95,000

at 20,000 if you sell .4.  you get 8,000

and still have 1.5 coins.

You can alter the numbers since I do not know your cost basis or your coin wealth. But it is the 50-50 game or 60-40 game or 70-30 game I am playing.

philipma1957 is way nicer than me.

 

Nah I used to be meaner , but I have mellowed with age.

[Biodom]

AAPL is gapping 5-6% up in AH
FB 6%
AMZN 5%

I get it...the nice setup for investment banks to short the market either in am or midday tomorrow.
No deal on stimulus ensues.
SP500 would then gap down on Monday, with a local low by midweek or by Fri at the latest.

Proceed with caution re your purchases of btc (in the short term).

[cAPSLOCK]

Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.

I am fairly comfortable with knowing myself insofar as my predispositions. I have held BTC since before I registered on this forum.  And I have net sold exactly zero of them.  And over the years I have also improved my ability to pick up MORE BTC when a fire sale shows up.

I don't know why you would consider me predisposed to being a weak hand.  But I also don't care one way or the other what you think in that regard.

But to call speculation on what will be INEVITABLE psychology in this new market "overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios" is one of the dumbest things I have heard you say, if I am interpreting your meaning correctly.  I suppose talking about that makes you uncomfortable?

Here are the two reasons it is not only a good idea but PROFITABLE to consider what psychology will do to ourselves and others.

1.  Anticipating scenarios in the market allow us to set a strategy for what we will DO in the face of how we FEEL.  This is wiser than moving forward with no plan, or a plan that ignores the information.
2.  Preparing oneself for times that people will act irrationally in markets allows one to do something like this:


March 12th was a GOOD day to buy bitcoin.  I was able to add BTC to my stack at just a little over 4k USD per.  I will have tripled my money with that purchase soon.  In my opinion being prepared for the large swings in psychology is a tremendously good idea.  And one must be resolute in the face of strong emotions to act quickly and decisively.

Predisposed to having weak hands... lol.

[OutOfMemory]

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

Consider this script:

-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here  
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k.  I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.

That is the point of greatest pain.  A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God.  I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."

They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).

Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.

This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt.  A LOT.  I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for.  And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.

Of course I could be wrong.

P.S On the other side of this?  The hyper bullish version?  We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far.  There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink.  I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys.  They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains.  This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through.  But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.

I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.

Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.

It's just not going to happen.  The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.

Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.

Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the  2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.

Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
 
nohomo

The closer the price gets up to the last ATH, the less sells to buy up, i guess.

More or less these types are involved:

1. People that want to get even
2. People that want at least a little return
3. Hodlers
4. People that dump the next ATH

In Short: Hodlers win (again).
The ATH dumpers get filthy fiat-rich and group 1 and 2 are kinda satisfied, but most won't come again to move the price upwards.
So Hodlers will be setting the support levels for the dump after next ATH (usually around -80%, iirc), weak hands get washed out and group 4 will come again two years later.
Support growth might flatten over the course of the next few halvenings.

Good nite y'all

[marcus_of_augustus]

[marcus_of_augustus]

... bunch of weak-handed, bear-whipped pussies looking to bail out into filthy fiat. Never heard such rot.

... smooth sailing is always on the other side of the next storm.

[marcus_of_augustus]

eth dragging us up. need eth to 'invest' in defi
defi is not the scam we want but it's the scam that will drive this bull, just like ico's last time
shrug

nah, stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is the scam that will be propelling this leg of the bitcoin bull.

It is almost parallel to the "intranet" phase of internet adoption, around the early 1990's. Legacy encumbents try to emulate a decentralised network by introducing centralised 'feel-a-likes' scams and walled-gardens.

Interestingly, the digital gold stablecoin/tokens are actually doing a good thing for the gold market ... shows how broken that clusterfuck has been.

[jbreher]

kodak making drugs and such now. wtf and didnt they sell rights to their name on some shitcoin a while back? kodakcoin or some crap?

Not quite. IIRC, they created their own crypto to be used in licensing of stock images.

[jbreher]

Today 10 years ago:

"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."

The current system where every user is a network node is not the intended configuration for large scale.  That would be like every Usenet user runs their own NNTP server.  The design supports letting users just be users.  The more burden it is to run a node, the fewer nodes there will be.  Those few nodes will be big server farms.  The rest will be client nodes that only do transactions and don't generate.

Quote from: bytemaster on July 28, 2010, 01:59:42 PM
Besides, 10 minutes is too long to verify that payment is good.  It needs to be as fast as swiping a credit card is today.

See the snack machine thread, I outline how a payment processor could verify payments well enough, actually really well (much lower fraud rate than credit cards), in something like 10 seconds or less.  If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=423.msg3819#msg3819

[jbreher]

Imagine some random lurker who doesn’t normally hang out here and landing on this page and reading that.
They’d be like “good lord, these bitcoiners are a nasty bunch!”
Lol

Probably, the newbies are going to blame LFC for all of it, when they really should be blaming jbreher.

 

Not me. Prolly a bit o' Mandy's nasty ol' bike.

[JayJuanGee]

I was trained (some label that as "programmed" - deny... ) to deny first, and ask questions later.

Something like that - I am afraid to say.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.

I am fairly comfortable with knowing myself insofar as my predispositions. I have held BTC since before I registered on this forum.  And I have net sold exactly zero of them. 

That failure/refusal to sell any can cut both ways, including causing a person to feel some kind of necessity to sell, when really shaving some profits along the way may well remove any such urge.

By the way, I would concede that getting into BTC in early 2011 or so, is going to create all kinds of advantages relative to later entrants.. such as myself, including the fact that if you have never sold any BTC, then even if you had made the mistake of buying lots of BTC at the wrong time, you still would likely have a pretty low average cost per BTC for any of those early BTC.

Anyhow, I would speculate that such early entrance into BTC should cause a bit more confidence in terms of NOT really worrying about tops or bottoms or timeing the BTC price with any kind of precision.   Go figure.

And over the years I have also improved my ability to pick up MORE BTC when a fire sale shows up.

Of course, buying more BTC along the way is all a good practice in part because many of us earn money in fiat along the way, so we would not have the same capital or even foresight or even ability to earn capital 5 or 10 years down the road.

So, yeah accounting for our cashflow or even inflation, in theory our cash flow should be going up through the years , or at least, still coming in all along the passage of time, so we can take advantage of cash as it comes available that was not previously available.

I don't know why you would consider me predisposed to being a weak hand.  But I also don't care one way or the other what you think in that regard.

O.k.  Maybe I overspeculated, but surely, some of your points suggest that you might be worrying about little things and even trying to time the market, when that does not seem to be a very prudent approach, especially for anyone who has been in bitcoin for more than 9 years already... makes me feel like a bitcoin baby with less than 7 years.   

But to call speculation on what will be INEVITABLE psychology in this new market "overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios" is one of the dumbest things I have heard you say, if I am interpreting your meaning correctly.  I suppose talking about that makes you uncomfortable?

I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.

I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.

With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up.  Am I missing something?

Here are the two reasons it is not only a good idea but PROFITABLE to consider what psychology will do to ourselves and others.

Psychology is only one portion of any market, whether bitcoin or otherwise.

1.  Anticipating scenarios in the market allow us to set a strategy for what we will DO in the face of how we FEEL.  This is wiser than moving forward with no plan, or a plan that ignores the information.

Did you ever hear me suggest that any of us should be winging it?  I am all for planning, and maybe I was just asserting that your plan to sell in the deadzone was not a good plan?  I was not asserting that you should not plan, and even if you decide to sell in the deadzone, that is your choice.  I was merely expressing my opinion about it, which I already did in my earlier post.

2.  Preparing oneself for times that people will act irrationally in markets allows one to do something like this:

You are preaching to the choir.  You believe that I do not have various plans?  Or that I am not in agreement about having plans?

March 12th was a GOOD day to buy bitcoin.  I was able to add BTC to my stack at just a little over 4k USD per.  I will have tripled my money with that purchase soon.  In my opinion being prepared for the large swings in psychology is a tremendously good idea.  And one must be resolute in the face of strong emotions to act quickly and decisively.

We are on the same page, there.  Seems like.

Predisposed to having weak hands... lol.

Sure, it is possible that I overstated the case or I used language that was too strong.  Otherwise, I have no reason NOT to stand by the rest of my post and the overall contents of it.  If I got some of your details wrong, then maybe my post should be just considered as more of a general observation rather than about you, or your specific situation?  even though it did seem that you were contemplating selling BTC (perhaps even too much) in the deadzone based on considerations that seemed to be improbable outcomes - and that was largely meant to be my point.

[sirazimuth]

....

Nah I used to be meaner , but I have mellowed with age.

....
Everybody's swiping their devices everyday  (G   C)
Seems like lately life is just this way  (G   C )
All the time as I get older it   (F )
Seems the more that I get bolder  (C)
While everyone just looks at me dismayed (G  C)
....

[cAPSLOCK]

I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.

I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.

With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up.  Am I missing something?

I actually think you are attributing something to my words that I did not mean.  I am not predicting some doom and gloom scenario where it is incredibly hard to get past the ATH, or that a pullback after breaching it a little bit is going to be earth shattering.

Again I think back to the last even where bitcoin first re-crossed it's (what was in NOV14?) previous ATH ~1100 or whatever it was.  There was a good pull back after that, and the general air was kinda mixed.  There was a LOT of fear at that time.  In retrospect the entire thing was very quick.  But the road was a little bumpy around that price at the time.

I think there is a good chance we see something like that again.  I dunno HOW good?  50/50?  It doesn't really matter.  But a LOT of people got into bitcoin in late 2017, and some of those have soured on it.  We *will* have to chew through that resistance.  And like I also said it might just get blown by as well. 

But what i am doing is practicing putting on my fog lights now so that when it gets foggy I have the best chance at good outcomes.

[CryptoYar]

If the price drops down then it can go to the level of $9850.
If it keeps going up then the level from $12500 to $13500 is quite strong. Imo

#HopeATH

[xhomerx10]

oh boy...