I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.
So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.
That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.
Consider this script:
-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k. I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-
We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.That is the point of greatest pain. A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God. I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."
They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).
Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.
This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt. A LOT. I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for. And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.
Of course I could be wrong.
P.S On the other side of this? The hyper bullish version? We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far. There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink. I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys. They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains. This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through. But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.
I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.
Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.
It's just not going to happen. The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.
Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.
Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the 2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.
Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.
#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
nohomoSo I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.
That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.
You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.
If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.
I am remembering the way it was right at the time we blasted through 1k for the second time and then fell to what was it? 800 or so?
I think a LOT of people pulled ripcords around that time.
My scenario is directly inspired by a move of a LARGE amount of my personal holdings onto Kraken, and then a sober realization of the danger I was in and a move back off. I did not sell any BTC, but i lost an enormous amount of privacy because of that emotionally charged indescretion.
Yep... exactly.. you are proving my point.
Those 3-4 months, right around the beginning of 2017 seemed like a long fuckign time, while they were happening, but the reality of the matter is that they were a blip on the radar in the whole scheme of things.. and looking back, we largely sailed right the hell past previous ATH of $1,163... even though that sailing past took nearly 4 months.... hahahahahaha
Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.
Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.
Buy whenever possible and hold.
Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.
Do not deviate.
No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.
I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.
When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.
It is a ratio thing.
Always be prepared to sell some, but not all.
Also when people say numbers like :
10,000 ----------- been there done that
20,000 ----------- been there done that
50,000 ----------- to move to this number by 2021 means 922,339,050,000 or 922 billion
the world's money supply is easily able to achieve bumping btc to 50,000 or 922 billion by the years end
the world has well over 49,220 billion in wealth
so pushing btc to 50,000 by years end is not that hard to do.
So the upside if you have 3 coins right now is 150,000 by 2021 is possible.
If your coins cost you 3,900 x 3 = 11,700
do your math and figure what to sell.
If you want to be highest risk hold it all risking 11,700 for a possible 150,000
If you want to be lowest risk sell it all. you get about 33,000 - 11,700 = 21,300 profit a certain win.
If you are sane and want to do what you said in your post
you sell 1.1 coins gives you 12100 you invested 11,700. you are up 400 usd.
and you have 1.9 coins in hand.
Set a price point for next sell say 20,000
do ratios the upside is the 1.9 could go to 95,000
at 20,000 if you sell .4. you get 8,000
and still have 1.5 coins.
You can alter the numbers since I do not know your cost basis or your coin wealth. But it is the 50-50 game or 60-40 game or 70-30 game I am playing.
philipma1957 is way nicer than me.
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