Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.
I am fairly comfortable with knowing myself insofar as my predispositions. I have held BTC since before I registered on this forum. And I have net sold exactly zero of them.
That failure/refusal to sell any can cut both ways, including causing a person to feel some kind of necessity to sell, when really shaving some profits along the way may well remove any such urge.
By the way, I would concede that getting into BTC in early 2011 or so, is going to create all kinds of advantages relative to later entrants.. such as myself, including the fact that if you have never sold any BTC, then even if you had made the mistake of buying lots of BTC at the wrong time, you still would likely have a pretty low average cost per BTC for any of those early BTC.
Anyhow, I would speculate that such early entrance into BTC should cause a bit more confidence in terms of NOT really worrying about tops or bottoms or timeing the BTC price with any kind of precision. Go figure.
And over the years I have also improved my ability to pick up MORE BTC when a fire sale shows up.
Of course, buying more BTC along the way is all a good practice in part because many of us earn money in fiat along the way, so we would not have the same capital or even foresight or even ability to earn capital 5 or 10 years down the road.
So, yeah accounting for our cashflow or even inflation, in theory our cash flow should be going up through the years , or at least, still coming in all along the passage of time, so we can take advantage of cash as it comes available that was not previously available.
I don't know why you would consider me predisposed to being a weak hand. But I also don't care one way or the other what you think in that regard.
O.k. Maybe I overspeculated, but surely, some of your points suggest that you might be worrying about little things and even trying to time the market, when that does not seem to be a very prudent approach, especially for anyone who has been in bitcoin for more than 9 years already... makes me feel like a bitcoin baby with less than 7 years.
But to call speculation on what will be INEVITABLE psychology in this new market "overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios" is one of the dumbest things I have heard you say, if I am interpreting your meaning correctly. I suppose talking about that makes you uncomfortable?
I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.
I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.
With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up. Am I missing something?
Here are the two reasons it is not only a good idea but PROFITABLE to consider what psychology will do to ourselves and others.
Psychology is only one portion of any market, whether bitcoin or otherwise.
1. Anticipating scenarios in the market allow us to set a strategy for what we will DO in the face of how we FEEL. This is wiser than moving forward with no plan, or a plan that ignores the information.
Did you ever hear me suggest that any of us should be winging it? I am all for planning, and maybe I was just asserting that your plan to sell in the deadzone was not a good plan? I was not asserting that you should not plan, and even if you decide to sell in the deadzone, that is your choice. I was merely expressing my opinion about it, which I already did in my earlier post.
2. Preparing oneself for times that people will act irrationally in markets allows one to do something like this:
You are preaching to the choir. You believe that I do not have various plans? Or that I am not in agreement about having plans?
March 12th was a GOOD day to buy bitcoin. I was able to add BTC to my stack at just a little over 4k USD per. I will have tripled my money with that purchase soon. In my opinion being prepared for the large swings in psychology is a tremendously good idea. And one must be resolute in the face of strong emotions to act quickly and decisively.
We are on the same page, there. Seems like.
Predisposed to having weak hands... lol.
Sure, it is possible that I overstated the case or I used language that was too strong. Otherwise, I have no reason NOT to stand by the rest of my post and the overall contents of it. If I got some of your details wrong, then maybe my post should be just considered as more of a general observation rather than about you, or your specific situation? even though it did seem that you were contemplating selling BTC (perhaps even too much) in the deadzone based on considerations that seemed to be improbable outcomes - and that was largely meant to be my point.
Poll
