Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

#Bitcoin  is now halfway between the bull market cycles of 2013-2017.

$75k by end of March still on target IMO.


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https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1363898712045596682?s=21

[1714632924]

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[1714632924]

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[Dabs]

Sorry, but some of you guys here talking about "institutional investors are selling" are still at the Mt. Stupid level of understanding.

Any large institutional investor that takes up a big long position in bitcoin:

...

Not all corps have strong hands.  Take Nextech AR for example.  They purchased 2m worth in late 2020 with a commitment to increase that in 2021 and then dumped it shortly after they tweeted it out.  Weak assed CFO couldnt handle the dip.
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/Xrtoday/status/1349011999393517569

2m is hardly large. Whoever handles their treasury was ignorant of how bitcoin works and chickened out due to FUD about the non-existent double spend issue.

[Sayeds56]

Sometimes you instantly regret getting something when you haven't thought about the negative consequences of that thing that you only saw the good sides of.
https://imgur.com/gallery/y8G9HAe

[El duderino_]

That's how 80% of people trade


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https://twitter.com/krma_0/status/1363716137901580291?s=21

[Richy_T]

Bitcoin is definitely dead this time.
It was fun whilst it lasted.
Shame.

Yup. Cashed out, bought a cardboard box to live in.

[Parazyd]

Bitcoin is definitely dead this time.
It was fun whilst it lasted.
Shame.

Yup. Cashed out, bought a cardboard box to live in.

Thanks

[BobLawblaw]

And on slightly less good news: It looks like Daft Punk has ended their run.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuDX6wNfjqc
As they say, drat. Off to find my copy of Random Access Memories....

Very sad to hear. The production work that went into "Random Access Memories" was pure love for the art of music.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinCoolCat/status/1363933449359360001?s=20

[friends1980]

That's how 80% of people trade


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https://twitter.com/krma_0/status/1363716137901580291?s=21

I'd dare to add: ... in the beginning.

This is indeed an almost perfect replica of my trading FOMO-weak-hands-panic-selling habits a few years ago.

However, I think you really need this phase to learn and in a certain way even "grow" (sorry don't like to use big words like this one but can't think of a better one) in your trading experience.

"Petit à petit" you"ll start to recognize your own (wrong) patterns and correct them more and more along the way.

The only important advice I'd add is to start on a very small budget. I did, in a way thankfully because I simply had very little money after graduation. (this thought still drives me crazy now because if I had had the money to invest at the point where I started believing in the BTC concept, I would be able to stop working now... But that's an other discussion )

If you put too much money into this, at a time where your experience is too limited, you'll lose a lot and get disgusted and out of the game before you even got started to build up a minimal level of experience.

So a very recognizable situation in the pictures above.

Also, my wife says the monkey and I look alike.

[El duderino_]

Laser eyes were cool for about 24 hours and counting... Then the mETH heads went and trying to ruin the party by copying it, but epic failing, we will keep leading the way.

Ergo, laser eyes are no insanely longer cool.

Fight  Join me. As I do laser dildo as well, might get some laser eyes as well...

FTFY

[tertius993]

#Bitcoin  is now halfway between the bull market cycles of 2013-2017.

$75k by end of March still on target IMO.


foto jpg
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1363898712045596682?s=21

I am very suspicious of a graph that uses an “average” of two widely separated data points and then draws conclusions from it ... the average will, by necessity, follow the higher value rather closely.  I think (but without having done any analysis to back it up) it would make more sense to do a sort of trend analysis ... e.g. I imagine each halving is likely to be proportionately less impactful and/or take proportionally longer for its effects to be seen as the relative effect is smaller (e.g. when compared to the number of coins already issued).

[GreekCoiner]

Trying to read some posts of this topic from the beginning (~2013) will bring you nostalgia and make you nervous. Though, if you insist and decide to search you will find charts that are from sub $100/btc.  
Now at 50k a lot of things have changed but one hasn't changed and I'm not sure if it will ever change. It's the people reactions after every correction.
You will see people panic and trying to log in the exchange to sell their coins. Of course, I'm not saying that selling isn't good. If nobody was selling, then we wouldn't be able to buy but I am just saying that they haven't learned the game yet and I don't believe that they will ever will..

[LFC_Bitcoin]

#Bitcoin  is now halfway between the bull market cycles of 2013-2017.

$75k by end of March still on target IMO.


foto jpg
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1363898712045596682?s=21

I am very suspicious of a graph that uses an “average” of two widely separated data points and then draws conclusions from it ... the average will, by necessity, follow the higher value rather closely.  I think (but without having done any analysis to back it up) it would make more sense to do a sort of trend analysis ... e.g. I imagine each halving is likely to be proportionately less impactful and/or take proportionally longer for its effects to be seen as the relative effect is smaller (e.g. when compared to the number of coins already issued).

We never really had institutional investment before. Look, Musk & Saylor are on board, how many more are secretly buying? This could quite easily be a super cycle & we pump to $500,000 or something. Bitcoin is far more mainstream than during the last 2 cycles. We haven't even had retail FOMO yet during this cycle. We are nowhere near the top now.

[Richy_T]

And, of course, also, if you feel that you do not have enough, you can continue to DCA.. even if it is only $10 per week... though for fee purposes, it may be better to let your amount build up to something like $80 or $100 and then buy once you reach certain thresholds of value.

It that's the issue probably better to keep coins on the exchange until you have enough to make the (artificially high) fees worthwhile

[d_eddie]

After being a scared cat for so long, you decide to buy some crypto at k56  just to fit in...

now today you decide to look at your crypto portfolio and to show off but that dip on the charts makes you to start seeing things such as logo ressemblace to an empty wallet. jeez signal given, that cant be the future!

Sometimes crypto teaches you to have a big heart, happy trading WO

Did they sell you that "crypto" at "k56"?
I've got bad news for you.

[Dabs]

We never really had institutional investment before. Look, Musk & Saylor are on board, how many more are secretly buying? This could quite easily be a super cycle & we pump to $500,000 or something. Bitcoin is far more mainstream than during the last 2 cycles. We haven't even had retail FOMO yet during this cycle. We are nowhere near the top now.

In a recent interview on the Bitcoin Standard podcast, Saylor has said he doesn't believe there are any "cycles" anymore as related to halvings. This is just going to continue for the next several months as more institutions get in, regardless of where they are in the cycle. The cycle is irrelevant to them. They simply factor in the fully diluted value and assume all 21 million coins are already in existence.

As far as we are concerned, it may as well be. The difference between 18 million and 21 million, ... ok fine, it's still 3 million, but that doesn't matter in the long term. Plus, it will take a hundred years anyway.

The other thing, is we will start seeing "institutional" miners which are publicly traded suddenly refuse to sell their mined bitcoins. They'll just keep it.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/vizique/status/1363870197518598148?s=21

[El duderino_]

[aesma]

Hello WO. Big dip today, any reason for it ? Are you buying the dip yet ?

El duderino_ : is that Igor on your cap ?

[tertius993]

#Bitcoin  is now halfway between the bull market cycles of 2013-2017.

$75k by end of March still on target IMO.


foto jpg
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1363898712045596682?s=21

I am very suspicious of a graph that uses an “average” of two widely separated data points and then draws conclusions from it ... the average will, by necessity, follow the higher value rather closely.  I think (but without having done any analysis to back it up) it would make more sense to do a sort of trend analysis ... e.g. I imagine each halving is likely to be proportionately less impactful and/or take proportionally longer for its effects to be seen as the relative effect is smaller (e.g. when compared to the number of coins already issued).

We never really had institutional investment before. Look, Musk & Saylor are on board, how many more are secretly buying? This could quite easily be a super cycle & we pump to $500,000 or something. Bitcoin is far more mainstream than during the last 2 cycles. We haven't even had retail FOMO yet during this cycle. We are nowhere near the top now.

I’m not making any comment at all about the “top” or whether we are near it or not - I’m simply commenting on that graph and in particular the line showing the “average” value between the first and second halvings and questioning its relevance.  If your assessment is correct (and it may well be) then that will make the previous halvings even less relevant to today.