Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

I don't think you understand proudhon's scientific methods.

Buy faster.

I definitely don't miss the "tide goes in tide goes out.... you cant explain that!" moron.
Unfortunately they (Faux News) replaced him with another even bigger one (moron)

[1714467544]

1714467544

[shahzadafzal]

[Arriemoller]

If bitcoin could just stop going down now that would be great.

[Richy_T]

BTC at 100$ is a total impossibility. With how it is set up (mining power) and how many people own coins, including very rich ones, who really have no reason to dump ever, I'm not sure it can even go back under 10000$.

The rich ones who aren't dumping don't really enter the equation. It's buyers that determine the bottom of the price. Not that I'm suggesting it's likely that BTC is going to take that dive but it's important to look at the relevant factors and eliminate those that aren't.

If we see it at 100$ it might as well be 0$ because it would mean it has been broken by something.

[shahzadafzal]

Having said that, I just don't see us going below $40k. Too much institutional money to prop up the price at that level.

Daaayum bro... i thought we all agreed on $45k... didn't we?

[somac.]

Having said that, I just don't see us going below $40k. Too much institutional money to prop up the price at that level.

Daaayum bro... i thought we all agreed on $45k... didn't we?

40k is a 30% correction. This level of correction would match what we saw in 2017 several times. All very normal.

[Biodom]

I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

EDIT: BTW, I like those guys, but Saylor was chasing the price and E. Musk was clearly FOMO-ing, in a retrospect.
It most likely will still work out, but I hope that Saylor does not have some nasty conditions on this converts, especially the latest batch, bought at 52-53K.

[Richy_T]

I just poked around in the beginning of this thread for a bit of a laugh. Very interesting. April 2013, price around 100, MtGox still in action.  Worth a look.

[somac.]

I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

Fresh fiat doesn't arrive on the weekends, so it's the only chance bears have when Bitcoin is in a bull market. Plus lower liquidity of course.

[Richy_T]

Seems like a different life sometimes.

[JayJuanGee]

BTC at 100$ is a total impossibility. With how it is set up (mining power) and how many people own coins, including very rich ones, who really have no reason to dump ever, I'm not sure it can even go back under 10000$.

The rich ones who aren't dumping don't really enter the equation. It's buyers that determine the bottom of the price. Not that I'm suggesting it's likely that BTC is going to take that dive but it's important to look at the relevant factors and eliminate those that aren't.

If we see it at 100$ it might as well be 0$ because it would mean it has been broken by something.

aesma's point still seems quite valid in terms of even the chance of getting below $10k.  It's surely NOT impossible, but it's going to seem quite difficult, even using your own assertion, Richy_T - that buyers are going to determine the bottom.. and the more and more we seem to be witnessing BIG players getting into BTC in these price, MS buying ($10s of millions or even more) regularly at whatever price it is, which is likely going to cause quite difficulties for BTC prices to go down greatly from here.

On the other hand, I am NOT going to rule out relatively major corrections in the future, whether we are talking 50% to 70% or even those kinds of corrections that reach previous 85%-ish levels - because we know that the trend can be your friend, and sometimes the buyers just wait out the correction before injecting capital back in.. and furthermore, if we get a blow off top in this particular cycle that is a bit outrageous, maybe anything between $350k and $1million will seem outrageous, but outrageous could end up being even higher -  depending on how matters play out and depending on how BIG players might be wanting to play ball in this asset class (referring to BTC)... .. an 85% correction from $1million puts us at $150k... just saying.. and surely, ....


I am going to concede that $1million does seem like pie in the sky, currently, but is there anyone sane who is going to argue that $1million in this cycle has zero chance.. .. could even be 1% to 15% odds of playing out that high and that outrageous this particular cycle... only a bit more than 20x from today and 2013 there were two cycles that added up to more than 100x (from quite less than $10 in early 2013 to $1,163 by end of 2013), and I frequently argue that 2017 was 78x - but that is starting at $250 as the base in 2015.. but if we start $2,500 as the 2017 base we only get 7.8x.. and if we start $100 as the 2013 base for the second bubble we ONLY get 11x.. .. and at the same time, we know each of these fractals play out differently - and surely it takes more money to get those kinds of BIG ass price rises in BTC in terms of percentages - but we have players coming into the BTC place and removal of liquidity from the markets and even irresponsible government ongoing printing of money that seem to cause circumstances of a perfect storm that does not even cause 20x to 25x from our current BTC prices to be considered as completely outrageous - even though it would surely feel BIG in any estimation of the current situation and the impact of such perception of BTC market cap, even if such BTC market cap of $350k to $1million per BTC might only end up staying on paper for less than a month.... in this cycle...  perhaps, perhaps?  

Having said that, I just don't see us going below $40k. Too much institutional money to prop up the price at that level.

Daaayum bro... i thought we all agreed on $45k... didn't we?

40k is a 30% correction. This level of correction would match what we saw in 2017 several times. All very normal.

Bitcoin price corrections are not limited to 30% in a bull market.. .

I seem to recall seen corrections that approach 50% (or even more) in a bull market.. .. but the below chart that was posted by LFC ONLY shows up; to 38%... I have not independently verified it.. but seems like it might be missing some details / data of how extreme corrections can be..

For example, think about our correction from $10,300 on February 12, 2020 to $3,850 on March 12, 2020 ... that was nearly a 63% correction.  Sure you can argue that it was an aberration or that it was not really a bullrun, blah blah blah.. but really seems to me, just like the bullrun of 2015 was confirmed to have had started in October  2015, but we did not really realize with certainly until May 2016, and I would argue that our current bull run began in April 2019.. but not really confirmed until later.. even though some pretty BIG corrections along the way, too.  So you can frame the matter how you like in terms of considering the extent to which BIG corrections come along the way of a bullrun and whether they really meaningfully interfere with the overall UPpity BTC price direction that is the overall framework of a BTC bullrun even if it could take years to play out.. just like late 2015 to late 2017 is a two year bullrun that had a lot of wrinkles.. we may well see our particular bullrun having a much longer period.. possibly even close to double. if we consider April 2019 as the starting point.


 

I hope we're not in for years of slow downward slide again. That was demoralizing.

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

What we are currently witnessing in $58,xxx to $47,xxx is only the second big dip of this bull run.
There is plenty of room for up, we’re not even half way to the peak of this bull run.

[600watt]

this weekly $14 000 candle. is red. put it on linear to really grasp its magnitude. we had to wait 8 years for the price to reach 14k. and now it takes a week to swallow that.

found that there is almost no panic or even concern in here. rightfully so.

we might see a short wick down to the lower 40ies. so be it. the bull will continue. remember those harsh 30-40% dips during the 2017 run up? this is when hodlers shine. let the institutional investors get their chance to become hodlers. let them feel the pain like we felt it before. let them not sleep at night thinking they fucked up everything. just as we did. let them get their calls by their no-coiner buddies asking them about this bubble they bought at the top. let them check the charts and see nausea inducing redness, leaving them shell shocked.

bitcoin is the best performing asset in financial history. it is, at the same time, the most volatile motherf in the financial universe.

welcome to the show.

it is only fair.   

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

EDIT: BTW, I like those guys, but Saylor was chasing the price and E. Musk was clearly FOMO-ing, in a retrospect.
It most likely will still work out, but I hope that Saylor does not have some nasty conditions on this converts, especially the latest batch, bought at 52-53K.

Yes, overall you are seeming bullish Biodom, but you cannot help to get your little digs in, as if the actions of Saylor and Musk are not sustainable.,.

You are full of shit to be making those kinds of implications.

Seems to me that they are ongoingly going to be buying $10s of millions of dollars of BTC on a regular basis.. maybe in the upcoming 6 months or perhaps longer.. whether you appreciate the likelihood of those kinds of anticipated behaviors of guys like that or not, and if you don't believe that there is going to be ongoing BTC price support and pressures on BTC UPpity, then you seem to be attempt to live in a kind of selective wishful thinking reality.. and just hoping for doom and gloom.. it's like a kind of resentment of not being able to relate... just like you cannot seem to relate to my practices in regards to BTC - even though I am profiting quite well, but you still want to hate on such practices because you seem unable to accept.. and you want to get your little digs in and frame some matters in negative ways. .. go figure.. go figure.

this weekly $14 000 candle. is red. put it on linear to really grasp its magnitude. we had to wait 8 years for the price to reach 14k. and now it takes a week to swallow that.

found that there is almost no panic or even concern in here. rightfully so.

we might see a short wick down to the lower 40ies. so be it. the bull will continue. remember those harsh 30-40% dips during the 2017 run up? this is when hodlers shine. let the institutional investors get their chance to become hodlers. let them feel the pain like we felt it before. let them not sleep at night thinking they fucked up everything. just as we did. let them get their calls by their no-coiner buddies asking them about this bubble they bought at the top. let them check the charts and see nausea inducing redness, leaving them shell shocked.

bitcoin is the best performing asset in financial history. it is, at the same time, the most volatile motherf in the financial universe.

welcome to the show.

it is only fair.  

Hahahahahaha

Nice way of saying it.

Maybe you are saying something similar to Biodom, just framing it in a more loving way... to make sure some of the bulls.. even if BIG whale bulls might need to suffer a bit too, just to build (bitcoin HODLer) character... hahahahahaha #nohomo.

[Arriemoller]

I liked the almost 60k feeling, I felt rich, now not so much.

Edit: I even started buying soft 4 ply toilet paper, back to the cheap generic recycled stuff again.

[shahzadafzal]

I liked the almost 60k feeling, I felt rich, now not so much.

Edit: I even started buying soft 4 ply toilet paper, back to the cheap generic recycled stuff again.

You did the right thing... just little early... we are still in Feb!!!

[JayJuanGee]

I liked the almost 60k feeling, I felt rich, now not so much.

Yeah.. this is horrible.... my overall networth dropped by about 25%, when the BTC price dropped from $58,354 to current low prices of about $43,700.. it feels so horrible.  

If you consider that the amount of principle that I had put into BTC is about 2% of my overall BTC portfolio value at current prices, the value of my drop in my networth is about 12.5x the principle that I put in.. and I am going to be down to even-steven if the BTC prices were to drop below $1k.. Feeling kind of fucked right now... like I should have listened to proudhon.  

At least we got a little rebound to $44,750, as I type.. but surely that is a temporary feeew goooo situation..   I better start looking at the one-minute candles ... that should make me feel MOAR better, right?

[Arriemoller]

bitcoinity keeps freezing on my computer, yours too?

[Arriemoller]

stuck on 44844 for 171 seconds now

[somac.]

bitcoinity keeps freezing on my computer, yours too?

stuck on mine too, just use bitcoinwisdom

[JayJuanGee]

I liked the almost 60k feeling, I felt rich, now not so much.

Edit: I even started buying soft 4 ply toilet paper, back to the cheap generic recycled stuff again.

Now I can relate to the toilet paper edited point... at least in my earlier days in bitcoin.. such as during 2015.. I had to suffer a bit on some of my luxuries..

Furthermore, I feel for you.. and ur lil "old" butt.. .. ..

By the way.. in the past 5 months-ish, i have been traveling, and I have a habit of drinking coffee in the morning and going on walks in the afternoons.. However, if traveling frequently my walks are in areas that I am NOT really clear about the availability (or locations of ) bathroom facilities, and sometimes the coffee that I drink in the mornings can create explosive kinds of situations that carry out into the afternoons.... so I have learned to carry some toilet paper in one of my pockets, but even with relatively nice toilet paper in my pocket, sometimes locations for carrying out "duties" can be quite lacking in luxury.....some branches and garbage lying around...  that's for sure.. especially given the kinds of places that I am sometimes walking.. including the unknown factors as I had suggested.