Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

[1715449808]

1715449808

[1715449808]

1715449808

[JayJuanGee]

I'm in big dilemma now, should I buy back now? Or go 50% in now and next 50% in if we touch $40k-$41k? Got $20k on hands now from selling on $55k-$56k (didn't sell all my stash to be clear).

Sold at 57.5k and panic bought back at 47k. I am still very happy about that. So no matter what level you buy, you be in huge profit. I think we are close to deeper pain stage. So the uptrend should not be far away. But guess we have to go sub or close to 40k before up.

I am having difficulties considering $43k-ish as "deep pain stage" - especially upon zooming out - but hey, if we get into the lower $20ks or even sub $20k, that might start to feel a bit painful.

Regarding necessity to have "deep pain stage" before moving up or continuing UP, I doubt that such is necessary - even though I do understand the concept of shaking some weak hands, and surely some of the weak hands are likely being shaken with some of our current price dynamics, including where we are at, currently.

I am talking about deep pain stage for people who entered at high levels. They need to feel the pain and start to believe the bullrun is over. The whales love to let people feel this pain to shake them out. And I feel like the "blood on the streets" level for these people is pretty high right now. Indicator is still slightly at greed -> https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

For me, I am absolutely happy about $40k.

Fair enough.

The longer that many of us have been in, we have been able to establish our stakes and also prepare ourselves for either price direction.. so the first year or so could be a bit tougher - and surely with any BTC price run we get late entrance who ONLY heard about BTC or started looking into it in recent times, may have only been a couple of months, if that... I hate to generalize too much, but surely, the kinds of folks that you mentioned, UnDerDoG81, do surely exist and surely they may have come into bitcoin in droves in the past couple of months.

Regarding being "happy" about $40k, I remain more of an accept it for whatever it is kind of a guy, and so surely, I already stacked up on BTC a long time ago, so I feel no need to really get excited about BTC corrections or to be happy that they happen (in terms of stacking for my own BTC portfolio - which is already seemingly excessive for poor wee lil ole me), even though the corrections (even ones that are the BIGGER end of the scale - such as 25% to 40% arena) are likely a kind of necessity that likely ends up causing a quite a bit more graduality on the UPpity direction movements for a while, which does seem to be better to allow some of the buy support to catch up to current BTC prices and also to catch up to those BTC prices that have so far been at the higher ends of this particular run - referring to BTC prices in the $50ks and beyond that seem quite likely to come - so yeah, getting into the $60k BTC prices and beyond does seem somewhat better to have allowed some of the buy support to catch up to those prices so that there could be some push that could give us some $10k UPpities that happen within a day or so.. if that is even feasible and reasonable in these here times?

[Richy_T]

**Again the three current BTC price prediction models that I am referring to are 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

My model is zooming out to "all" on the price chart and using an eye that has grown accustomed to judging exponential curves. Hard to predict on the short scale, Bitcoin has been quite predictable in the long scale. Undoubtedly an S-curve will dominate eventually but we still seem to be solidly on a fairly boringly predictable exponential at this time. Large groups of people are predictable in a way that would make Harry Seldon smile.

I'd certainly appreciate another rally though, maybe with some real FOMO this time. It may or may not happen. I don't like assigning probabilities to something that is going to play out how it plays out but I would put my confidence in another rally in the immediate future at no better than 30-40%. I see no path to 1M at all that doesn't have a large label of "wishful thinking" applied to it.

[Elwar]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

[Biodom]

Where s = log (usd per btc / $0.02)
and t = 0.093928 * sqrt (days elapsed since 2010-09-08)
The Twopenny Indicator = (s-t) * sqrt(s+t)
The blue trace is the daily closing bitcoin price run through the twopenny equation (named for the denominator of s).
The red traces are constant-dollar lines at $10.33, $463, $7642 and $81550.  These isovalue lines, which intersect the baseline at halvings, are cyclical price drivers.

it seems that we cross the line and go higher by >2.5X, but 3X<
With 81550 being the line cross, this puts us to 203-244K area, with the historical projected average of "multiplication" factor of 2.73X over the line, resulting in 222.6K.
If we shall use last peak multiplicator of 2.588, then the projection is 211K
In any case, this is quite bullish if it would pan out.
Awesome charts.

[Biodom]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.

[fillippone]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.

As a PlanB zealot, I tend to rule out 15K too.

Stock to flow price according to  digitalik.net/BTC is  34,488. As market price has never been below 50% of this value, I am ready to call 17K the bottom.
Bear in mind that S2F model is rapidly growing by now, so the floor is rising fast too.

If market get below lower, S2F model breaks, and nobody know what happens then.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

[vroom]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

you became a real bear lately    this is the second time you call the top of this cycle.

[Elwar]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.

As a PlanB zealot, I tend to rule out 15K too.

Stock to flow price according to  digitalik.net/BTC is  34,488. As market price has never been below 50% of this value, I am ready to call 17K the bottom.
Bear in mind that S2F model is rapidly growing by now, so the floor is rising fast too.

If market get below lower, S2F model breaks, and nobody know what happens then.

Ya, I threw $15k out there as just eyeballing the charts.

[Elwar]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

you became a real bear lately    this is the second time you call the top of this cycle.

Yep, I was wrong last time too.

Happily.

Cautiously pessimistic.

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

EDIT: BTW, I like those guys, but Saylor was chasing the price and E. Musk was clearly FOMO-ing, in a retrospect.
It most likely will still work out, but I hope that Saylor does not have some nasty conditions on this converts, especially the latest batch, bought at 52-53K.

Yes, overall you are seeming bullish Biodom, but you cannot help to get your little digs in, as if the actions of Saylor and Musk are not sustainable.,.

You are full of shit to be making those kinds of implications.

I reserve the right to make digs at anything I want, well, maybe not Satoshi.
That said, you do your little "buy down, sell up" things and I will do mine "whatever" strategy.

Fair enough.. and whatevers in regards to your strategy sounds about right... just go by what you are feeling at the time.        

As far as Saylor-I don't know what nasty covenants debt-giving people put in there, but I can assure you that something is there.
Do you think that someone gives a guy $1 bil at 0% coupon and not have some "protection"? Lol

From my perspective, you seem to be getting worked up about nothing.  Yeah, sure Saylor is in the news a lot in recent times  (his less than a year in bitcoin has resulted in 6-8 months of ongoing in the press and getting a lot of attention for whatever his variations of strategies, propagandizing and even seemingly quite adventurous kinds of techniques and buying that might even seem to be too good to be true - even though we don't really have any solid evidence - besides some whiners that what he is doing and saying is not true).

Regarding the specific terms of whatever contracts (financial debt instruments) that he creates, sure some of those terms might be private, but he also seems to be revealing a lot of the terms, which seems to be at least some of the requirements for publicly traded companies.  Yeah, sure he is playing some of his fame and credibility in a way that seems to allow him to even get terms that are more favorable to him, and might even cause some folks (including uie, Biodom) to question why any reasonable person/business might get into such a seemingly lopsided (unfavorable to them) contract.  In the end, peeps gonna do what peeps are going to do, and whatever products Saylor has created has gotten bought up in very short-periods of time, so it's NOT like the market does not want whatever he is selling, and it is quite likely that he has buuuku numbers and skill levels of attorneys looking at his actions/products to attempt to make sure that he/his company is not likely to get into trouble from regulators regarding whatever products they are offering and selling.

That said, check out MSTR long term chart-it might be instructive. Sometimes things don't exactly repeat themselves, but they sure do rhyme.

Probably you need to explain a bit better, Biodom.  You are suggesting that they are overvalued?  Do I give any shits?  It's going to play out however it plays out.  Is it going to bring bitcoin down?  what point are you making?  I am supposed to read your mind because whatever that happens to be in the MSTR charts is obvious as fuck?  I doubt it.  'Splain me like I am 7.   

Finally, if btc suddenly goes to 100K, 200K, 300K, it's all for the better, but we don't want MS suddenly selling the last batch of his btc at, say, 33K if debt holders raise a demand that he does so, providing that they can.

Sure any scenario could play out, and is that what you are getting at?  You focus on some kind of unlikely scenario and then you try to place way more probability on such scenario than it deserves?  and who fucking cares?  We gotta go to the $100k, $200k or $300k first.. won't that be ccccciiiiittting!!!!!.. Yeah, we can focus on the subsequent downside later.. and as if it such a downside is guaranteed or even close to guaranteed being condition precedent on the upside happening first...

Get fucking grip first, Biodom.. sure fancy thinking several steps ahead like a damned 3D chess wizzard, but in the end, sometimes thinking too far ahead and getting caught up into some kind of scenario that depends on a whole hell of a lot of factors is way the fuck too speculative  - even if we can all recognize that we do happen to be in a speculative thread.. but fringe theories are going NOT going to help your credibility, just like they did not help JStolfi very much when he was spouting out supposed academically backed fringe-ass scenario bitcoin theories of various things that could happen while ignoring more likely scenarios that ended up playing out..   Are you engaged in similar speculations that make you want to show like you have considered innovative theories while down-playing or even outright ignoring the more likely paths forward in bitcoinlandia?

I would be shocked if they don't have some "protection", though. After all, debt holders are in the senior position in any company structure.

Also, you are likely depending on Microstrategy's cashflow drying up...  so they cannot service the debts.. sure it "could" happen.  Seems likely to me that Microstrategy peeps including Saylor have decent ideas about their historical cashflows and even projecting them out, even if they seem to be changing some of their emphasis on bitcoin and might even becoming way more bitcoin dependent in a variety of ways..  but still they have likely considered a variety of scenarios and even considered that they can consider other scenarios as their business and their business model changes including that they are not necessarily locked into the present and they can move with the punches and adapt along the way, which are similar things that any company does that is taking risks and going down innovative paths including that they might fail in a variety of ways.. which may or may not end up affecting king daddy... cross that bridge when we get there including the likelihood that satoshi is going to be selling most (if not all) of his bitcoins at around the same time that Saylor and MSTR are forced to sell their coins.. sure sucks to be a bag HODLer in bitcoin during these crazy ass times... like as if I am locked in too.. 

[serveria.com]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

$58000 being the top is just out of the question. It's impossible. We're going higher to at least 6 digits guys! 

[Biodom]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

[serveria.com]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

Much stronger hands than mailmen and grannies in 2017 if you ask me... 

[Biodom]

@JJG, again, you have no clue about debt, seniority or debt covenants.
Either educate yourself or stop talking about s-t you have no clue about.
BTW, yes, I always try to play chess...it helps to generate "if..then" scenarios, especially when I am being chased by the bear...remember the relevant strategy?

[El duderino_]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

you became a real bear lately    this is the second time you call the top of this cycle.

We will here 7-8 more calls easily

[gallianooo]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

Not really agree with the "second deep correction of  6". We are much more close to the 2013 scenario timeframe than the 2017. The second deep of the previous bull market was end of 2016/january 2017... We are almost in March 2021 and already way ahead of the previous cycle.. So it looks not correct, from my opinion, to compare.

The main thing we should keep in mind is that it is standard to see 25/30/35% corrections, before to see the TOP of the new cycle.

It is much more coherent to have this than a 120-240K$ TOP without any significant corrections between.

[sirazimuth]

......
Now I can relate to the toilet paper edited point... at least in my earlier days in bitcoin.. such as during 2015.. I had to suffer a bit on some of my luxuries..

Furthermore, I feel for you.. and ur lil "old" butt.. .. ..

By the way.. in the past 5 months-ish, i have been traveling, and I have a habit of drinking coffee in the morning and going on walks in the afternoons.. However, if traveling frequently my walks are in areas that I am NOT really clear about the availability (or locations of ) bathroom facilities, and sometimes the coffee that I drink in the mornings can create explosive kinds of situations that carry out into the afternoons.... so I have learned to carry some toilet paper in one of my pockets, but even with relatively nice toilet paper in my pocket, sometimes locations for carrying out "duties" can be quite lacking in luxury.....some branches and garbage lying around...  that's for sure.. especially given the kinds of places that I am sometimes walking.. including the unknown factors as I had suggested.  

I suppose then the term, "does a bear shit in woods?", (when used in this thread anyway) shall henceforward be updated to
"does a JJG shit in the woods?"......  perhaps?....

[DaRude]

As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:



https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Market%20Indicators&m=indicators.NetRealizedProfitLoss

What is this?

Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit - Realized Loss

So we are basically looking at the difference between

Realized Profit denotes the total profit (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was lower than the price at the current movement.

And of course:

Realized Loss denotes the total loss (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than the price at the current movement.

This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market.
I think this time won’t be different.

A month ago when we crossed this price for the first time we were at ATH. This means that overwhelming majority of transactions are spending UTXOs from within this month. New money just slushing around bloating the blocks, BTC float must be tinier than i thought

Edit: can also just be the outflow from exchanges of BTC bought this month e.g. Elon moving his stash to cold wallet