Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1376636880024920064?s=21

[AlcoHoDL]

Edit: Oh, and trust me on this: I'm extremely picky about typography, maybe as picky as you, if not more! This is not meant as an offensive comment. I think there are very few of us left. I'm always happy when I find another one...

At least three in the WO. Be happy!

Good to know! 

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1376265659286347776

20x per epoch might be a bit too optimistic.

I would just stick with 5x previous ATH as a conservative expectation. Anything above that is a bonus and depends on factors you cannot predict. Like Michael Saylor said if a few billionaires suddenly enter the game all comparisons with what happened before just go out of the window.

100K 2020-2024

500K 2024-2028

2.5M 2028+

Looking at charts constantly and setting your expectations too high I think is just a waste of time.

You are nearly guilty of some similar thing that you are describing as problematic, BitcoinBunny, no?

Truth of the matter remains that bitcoin is a quite different kind of asset class that has never been witnessed previously in its current incarnation.   Sure there have been variants of bitcoin, and bitcoin was NOT built from scratch, so we cannot really lock it into any kind of model of something that may have previously happened exactly - even while there are some decent parallels such as the internet (just not the value/money part) - while at the same time, some of the models/charts./graphs have better explanatory and predictive power than others, so long as we do not try to read any particular one(s) as gospel, which seems to be a similar thing that you are saying. 

So, even though I am not really disagreeing with you on any of your points - especially regarding varying difficulties in predicting anything that is going to happen "in the future", I do believe that you ended up overstating your case to some degree in the poo pooing of the value of models and charts in these trying times.

Oh, and furthermore, some peeps get more worked up and emotional about charts and models than others, but it does not seem fair to generalize in saying that the varying levels of emotions (and even irrational exuberance from time to time) are necessarily either not warranted because they are speculating about the future rather than celebrating the past or that there might not be some value in going a little crazy in expressing both where we are and in anticipation of where we might be going.. including

CCCCIIIIIIIITTTTTTTEEEEEE   status

regarding our lil fiend.. aka king daddy, aka dee honey badger, aka bitcoin.

wwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeee!!!!!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1376636880024920064?s=21

I wish the SEC would approve a couple of ETF’s in the next few months. That’d really light the blue touch paper.

[d_eddie]

Since when we saw the tail wagging the dog (derivatives dragging corn down), I've become wary. TPTB have an unlimited amount of shiat money to throw at any ETF. Then who audits the ETF? Who audits the auditors? Physical corn, on the other hand, has this self custody thing that is very very hard to dodge...

[OutOfMemory]

whenever i hear or read that i lost a close friend from the old times, which i haven't seen/heard of for a long time (over a decade), i look up the music we shared in our times of close friendship. It's like temporary revival in the form of memories, because you don't have a chance to experience their presence ever again.
I use the music to start the process of letting go.

I know that dying is a part of life, which allows us to be able to feel these kind of things.
I don't beg for condolence here, by the way.

Maybe some of you remember one of these persons, who you wanted to call or write for longer times, but didn't make it yet for whatever reason.

Good night/day.
fucking timezones!

Meanwhile, king daddy does what king daddy does... 

[El duderino_]

foto plaatjes

[ivomm]

Since when we saw the tail wagging the dog (derivatives dragging corn down), I've become wary. TPTB have an unlimited amount of shiat money to throw at any ETF. Then who audits the ETF? Who audits the auditors? Physical corn, on the other hand, has this self custody thing that is very very hard to dodge...

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becomes fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

[philipma1957]

Since when we saw the tail wagging the dog (derivatives dragging corn down), I've become wary. TPTB have an unlimited amount of shiat money to throw at any ETF. Then who audits the ETF? Who audits the auditors? Physical corn, on the other hand, has this self custody thing that is very very hard to dodge...

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becames fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

October 2020 to June 2022 seems about right.

[d_eddie]

The way I see it, cash settled can "wag the dog" almost as powerfully - at least if the ETF issuer has any clearinghouse function: if number go up, any redeeming of ETF stock must follow the price, basically forcing whoever clears the stocks to hedge against price moves by holding physical btc or other reliable derivatives.

Now let's forget about this for a moment and consider a hypothetical situation: what happens to "the number" when someone short sells, or naked short sells, a btc ETF with the might of a full brrr press?

[Hueristic]

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becomes fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

It wasn't popular but it was pointed out.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2730822.0

[AlcoHoDL]

Since when we saw the tail wagging the dog (derivatives dragging corn down), I've become wary. TPTB have an unlimited amount of shiat money to throw at any ETF. Then who audits the ETF? Who audits the auditors? Physical corn, on the other hand, has this self custody thing that is very very hard to dodge...

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becames fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

I don't claim to fully understand the implications of ETFs getting into Bitcoin. At first thought it seems to be a positive thing (mass adoption, recognition, etc.). But, something makes me feel a little wary about such big players entering this space. All those massively powerful entities will have the power to greatly influence the market, and we must assume that their motives will not necessarily be pro-Bitcoin. On the other hand, if Bitcoin is to have a future, it has to be able to withstand any threat and succeed in any challenge. So, I'm not too worried about it. I see all such cases as tests of Bitcoin's robustness. And, so far, Bitcoin has passed all tests with flying colors. I just have a bittersweet taste in my mouth about this one...

[d_eddie]

I don't claim to fully understand the implications of ETFs getting into Bitcoin.

Neither do I, but...

At first thought it seems to be a positive thing (mass adoption, recognition, etc.). But, something makes me feel a little wary about such big players entering this space. All those massively powerful entities will have the power to greatly influence the market, and we must assume that their motives will not necessarily be pro-Bitcoin.

The problem is they will be able to do so without buying a single satoshi. That's why I advocate strict 'in kind' redemption (physical) and fastidious auditing. Which can only be done on the etf issuer reserves: it is impossible to do on the etf stock once it is out on the market. For a reminder, think of other stocks with short interest ABOVE the float.

It has happened, it happens everyday. GME is the latest famous example. And the asses of the shorters were saved by some opaque chain of factors - Robinhood, the clearinghouse, the antiquate short reporting system (they are going to update it to "within a working day" or so - why don't they use a friggin' blockchain or something?) - we will likely never know.

As a final note, I got my skin off GME while still decently in the green as soon as I understood that wielding my diamond hands would have given me no super tendies.

[Biodom]

ETF would bring big money, but also levered players in obscure derivatives..witness the Archegos fiasco.
I wouldn't want btc to drop 30% because some dude invested in some "secret contracts" with counterparty banks (swaps or "contracts-for-difference").
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3127532/billions-secret-derivatives-lie-nub-archegos-leverage
No sireee.

[Hueristic]

Bears repeating.
some pun intended

[lightfoot]

whenever i hear or read that i lost a close friend from the old times, which i haven't seen/heard of for a long time (over a decade), i look up the music we shared in our times of close friendship. It's like temporary revival in the form of memories, because you don't have a chance to experience their presence ever again.
I use the music to start the process of letting go.

I know that dying is a part of life, which allows us to be able to feel these kind of things.
I don't beg for condolence here, by the way.

Maybe some of you remember one of these persons, who you wanted to call or write for longer times, but didn't make it yet for whatever reason.

Sorry to hear that. Yeah I'm getting better at letting go of grudges, people just go and die for some reason and that's sad.

*hugs*

[savetherainforest]

Sold some more at $58K, dunno if it was a good idea yet.

"... this time feels different."  

[BitcoinBunny]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1376265659286347776

20x per epoch might be a bit too optimistic.

I would just stick with 5x previous ATH as a conservative expectation. Anything above that is a bonus and depends on factors you cannot predict. Like Michael Saylor said if a few billionaires suddenly enter the game all comparisons with what happened before just go out of the window.

100K 2020-2024

500K 2024-2028

2.5M 2028+

Looking at charts constantly and setting your expectations too high I think is just a waste of time.

You are nearly guilty of some similar thing that you are describing as problematic, BitcoinBunny, no?

Truth of the matter remains that bitcoin is a quite different kind of asset class that has never been witnessed previously in its current incarnation.   Sure there have been variants of bitcoin, and bitcoin was NOT built from scratch, so we cannot really lock it into any kind of model of something that may have previously happened exactly - even while there are some decent parallels such as the internet (just not the value/money part) - while at the same time, some of the models/charts./graphs have better explanatory and predictive power than others, so long as we do not try to read any particular one(s) as gospel, which seems to be a similar thing that you are saying. 

So, even though I am not really disagreeing with you on any of your points - especially regarding varying difficulties in predicting anything that is going to happen "in the future", I do believe that you ended up overstating your case to some degree in the poo pooing of the value of models and charts in these trying times.

Oh, and furthermore, some peeps get more worked up and emotional about charts and models than others, but it does not seem fair to generalize in saying that the varying levels of emotions (and even irrational exuberance from time to time) are necessarily either not warranted because they are speculating about the future rather than celebrating the past or that there might not be some value in going a little crazy in expressing both where we are and in anticipation of where we might be going.. including

CCCCIIIIIIIITTTTTTTEEEEEE   status

regarding our lil fiend.. aka king daddy, aka dee honey badger, aka bitcoin.

wwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeee!!!!!

Fair comments.

[JimboToronto]

"Be like a cat, my friend. Be strong like a #strongcat with #stronghands." I could have been possibly drunk too, can't remember.

Maybe the cat was drunk too.

[JayJuanGee]

I've already checked price at mobile app before leaving bed.  Please, help meee!!!

How about a bitcoin alarm that wakes you up by reading the price?

Might not be good, Richy... On the one side such an alarm might cause panic or alternatively premature ejection from bed.

What?  Nullius was born??

No he was manufactured in a lab from what have been going around.

I hope he is not one of those lab meats, then may have been better to name him:  beyond Nullius, no?