Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1378410323653193729

[JayJuanGee]

Its important to see where are we in terms of bitcoin / altcoin season.

What is the meaning of the important thing you are trying to talk about?

The important thing is that this is not a time to invest in the altcoins as many people are shilling their alts (Top 3 altcoins, Altcoins to perform well in April etc etc). Since we are at the top of altseason, its time to sell the alts and get into bitcoins, else you will be stuck in altcoins.

Here is a secret, In the bitcoin season, we should buy cheap alts and sell them in altseason while most people buy alts in altseason.
In altcoin season, we should focus to buy bitcoin to prepare for bitcoin season next.

I think it is just better to buy and hold Bitcoin, or maybe DCA. It has been the most profitable investment until now and it will save you a lot of headaches. Just buying and holding Bitcoin for long enough will result in a great wealth.

I don't want to try to time the market with alts. If you are able to, good for you, but I think most people will profit enough with the much simpler strategy.

And furthermore fucking around with trading alts into BTC and out of BTC to try to make more BTC than you would have had is not even a topic of this thread, assuming that some peeps are able to accomplish such. 

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1378410323653193729

I am sure that some other interesting consumption goods and services (such as  Education, medical, automobiles, hire a plumber or carpenter,  utility costs (including internet and phone services),  electronics (phones, computers, other devices)  could be put into that list to really cause folks to wonder how the fuck is such "official inflation rate" actually calculated.

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[ivomm]

It seems that the bears took advantage of the weak volume and hammered the price 5%. Hopefully the damage will be repaired and 60K will be soon broken. By broken, I mean staying above 70K  

Anyway, I've been thinking recently for a tool to measure the profit/losses of the daily traders who follow the trend. It is well known that those kind of traders are 99.9% losers. I mean, for each pump, no matter how big, they make on average 1%-2% profit. While on the dumps they can't afford a 1-2% stop loss and so make on average (x/2+1)% loss, if the dump was x%. (I'll try to explain my logic below.) Thus, they theoretically are always losing in the longterm. I guess thay have the same level of math and science as proudhon and can't understand this.

If we count the last month(s) losses, we can give an estimate when they remain with 1%-10% of their initial portfolio. And that is the point when they have no power to resist the pump (like a coiled spring) and the price shoots up 20%-100%. So, whether several bigger dumps like 10%-20%-ish or multiple smaller 5%-10%-ish will lead to the same result. Since we've had several bigger dumps already, I believe that the battle for 60K will be much shorter that for 10K last year. My rough estimates show that in the next week we should reach that hot spot and break the resistance. The algo should be something like this (very rough, of course):

1. A trader buys with N amount of cash bitcoins.
2. If the prices falls x%, he cuts his stop loss on average at (x/2+1)%. The reason for this logic is that at least half of the daily trend traders bought at the top and resisted the urge to sell, when they finally capitulate at x%. And practically nobody puts a stop loss at -1% unlike the profit taking. The number of traders putting stop losses -1%-3% is also relatively small, judging by the volume of sells which increases exponentially starting -4%.
3. If the price raises x%, he sells with a 1.5% profit on average. We see clearly that in a trading without real investors, each 1-2% increase is being erased in a matter of seconds, because of this behaviour. In that case, the trader enters again later that day, or the next, believing he timed the uptrend (which in most cases occurs higher than his selling point, on average in a bull market, say +2%). And then he repeats steps 1-3.

This is an easy programming problem and the parameters can be adjusted with the help of some examples for longer battles at some resistance points. Of course, this behaviour will at some point inevitably incur the trader a loss, which will increase with time to the point of losing almost his entire initial investment. Then he either choses to enter with a new sum (believing that this time will be different and forgetting the famous saying - you can't expect a different result doing the same things over and over again), or quits trading. The only "successful" traders are those who manage to reach 2-3 successful 1-2% trades and quit. They argued and mocked the hodlers boasting with 5-10% profits around 6K-7K last year. And of course they've missed the 15x increase for the year. But the vast majority of traders are greedy, so 99.99% of them do not quit after that but continue until they lose (almost) everything.

[ImThour]

1 BTC = 1 Lamborghini Aventador, when?
Right person to guess should be awarded in future by theymos's son.

[modrobert]

I would like to see Bitcoin at $1,000,000 as much as anyone in here, but will be hard to enjoy it while eating a $1000 big mac.

[Arriemoller]

Its important to see where are we in terms of bitcoin / altcoin season.

What is the meaning of the important thing you are trying to talk about?

The important thing is that this is not a time to invest in the altcoins as many people are shilling their alts (Top 3 altcoins, Altcoins to perform well in April etc etc). Since we are at the top of altseason, its time to sell the alts and get into bitcoins, else you will be stuck in altcoins.

Here is a secret, In the bitcoin season, we should buy cheap alts and sell them in altseason while most people buy alts in altseason.
In altcoin season, we should focus to buy bitcoin to prepare for bitcoin season next.

No, you should always buy bitcoin and hodl, trading will make you lose money, period.

[Phil_S]

[vroom]

there are so many metrics to predict future development, what's wrong with this one?

the altcoin market looks to me a bit like bitcoin's lungs. you can really see them breathing in the charts. they act as a buffer and multiplactor at the same time.

this breathing we see there is the flow of capital. People trying to make profits through price movements. small self-reinforcing and self-referencing feedback loops can then lead to huge price explosions, because all the capital is attracted at the same time as if by a sigularity.

soon.

[Arriemoller]

Stop shilling altcoins in this thread will you.

[AlcoHoDL]

I would like to see Bitcoin at $1,000,000 as much as anyone in here, but will be hard to enjoy it while eating a $1000 big mac.

The only way this can happen is if you buy that Big Mac now with Bitcoin.

[BTCaesar]

Good Morning WO’s...

https://youtu.be/HQXsX3ia8B8

[BitcoinBunny]

1 BTC = 1 Lamborghini Aventador, when?
Right person to guess should be awarded in future by theymos's son.

12th February 2022

[BitcoinBunny]

I would like to see Bitcoin at $1,000,000 as much as anyone in here, but will be hard to enjoy it while eating a $1000 big mac.

With the current Big Mac to BTC price index it would either mean a $10,000,000 BTC /$1000 Mac or a $1,000,000 BTC / $100 Big Mac unless you believe BTC can drop 90%.

[El duderino_]

Sideways in dollars,
though that’s not our interest.
Happy Easter WO.

[Arriemoller]

So, Jesus is dead
But don't you worry, he'll be back
Just like bitcoin will

[BitcoinBunny]

Couldn't even get a fucking Easter Egg yesterday.

Supermarkets raking it in as other shops still forced to stay closed "BeCaUsE iT's ToO dAnGeRoUs"
The big players still can't be bothered increasing supplies or hiring more staff. Why bother when you are making money guaranteed and competition has been forced to shut down?

Everything ok folks: inflation is only 1.5%. 

[savetherainforest]

Well, I guess all those that rush to sell at 59K have no laser eyes.   May be they don't believe in 100K? It is only 66.6(6)% away from 60K! Hence it may take only several days/weeks after breaching 60K to reach 100K. I remember 2 consecutive days in Dec 2017, when the price went from 11K -ish to 19600 making a 66% increase. So yeah, anything is possible.  

Sold some at $59.5K ... bought back at $56.5K ...      

[El duderino_]

image uploader

What if you up 200% and then drop 100%, where does it get you?
https://twitter.com/lamps97455677/status/1378271261722357760?s=20

what if you split your investment in 2? So 100 into 2x 50; first 50 goes to 150 (+200%) and second 50 goes to shit, net result 150. and what if I told you that btc has better odds than this 50/50. if you want to know more, google "sharpe ratio, re-balancing, Kelly criterion).
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1378283138946887682?s=20

Exactly. and this is why shorting the market is unpopular you can only make a maximum return of 100%
https://twitter.com/desertislandLTD/status/1378381541546590213?s=20

Great point! Had not thought about it that way. If you short, the odds are against you: max 100% (where long is average 200%, with chance of more).
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1378382137083187206?s=20