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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368158 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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April 09, 2021, 03:34:26 PM

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The Bitcoin software, network, and concept is called "Bitcoin" with a capitalized "B". Bitcoin currency units are called "bitcoins" with a lowercase "b" -- this is often abbreviated BTC.
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Kylapoiss
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April 09, 2021, 03:37:42 PM

today is friday Leg day
i will open a few cold ones
bitcoin is awesome


Leg day? But the gyms are closed. At least in here.
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April 09, 2021, 03:41:00 PM

today is friday Leg day
i will open a few cold ones
bitcoin is awesome


Leg day? But the gyms are closed. At least in here.
Now saturday for me and everything is open here.
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April 09, 2021, 03:41:19 PM
Merited by Krubster (1)

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April 09, 2021, 03:49:14 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), Parazyd (1)

I’ll raise you to a PAIR OF QUEENS  Smiley

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April 09, 2021, 03:50:49 PM

Thank you so much guys... I'm using Electrum now.

You might want to learn how to use it offline, together with either another phone or with your computer. You can use that Samsung as your cold wallet, while it's probably okay to keep it online as your hot wallet too.
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April 09, 2021, 03:53:54 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)


https://twitter.com/thecryptodog/status/1380295012718497793?s=21
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April 09, 2021, 04:00:19 PM
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How are the lower and the upper lines chosen?  You just pick a price starting point from January 2013?

Starting points do not matter, since the idea is to illustrate a slope, and compare it to the BLACK SLOPE of 200WMA.
I just think the slopes are approximately similar.

Of course the 200 WMA should be the most factually ladened of the lines and the 2x lines seem to be largely attempting to make a projection of where the BTC price might be going based on where the BTC price has been.. and surely whether starting in 2011 or 2013 or which price is chosen can be interesting thought experiments, even if somewhat randomly chosen.. and I will sometimes choose my own representations of BTC prices at certain points in time based upon where BTC prices might seem to be gravitating over that period of time (which is not unlike what others do, even if they might arrive there based on different kinds of maths and sciences), so in that regard, to me it seems that some numbers are more significant (because of their seeming representativeness) in terms of bouncing off points in comparison to numbers.

Similar to the recent subject about when should we start to measure BTC's price because of course, one of the very first transactions to buy two pizzas for 10k bitcoin might not be as representative as prices a few months down the road when larger numbers of trades are allowed and even locations for conducting such trades become more common.. so in that regard, there is a kind of product of the number of transactions and maybe the passage of time, and I do have some troubles gravitating on any price analysis that uses 2010 data because it seems so sporadic.. but it seems by the time that we are getting to 2011, even if the BTC price discovery is relatively immature, it seems fair enough to start to use that data rather than waiting for 2013 or some further down the road date - at least in my thinking.

I am wondering if a large number of these folks really mean 100% per year, even though they are saying 200% per year...

No, it started with some recent article, that compared recent prices with the prices 10 years ago, and claimed that it triples every year. Everyone started repeating it, even Saylor who is smart enough to know better. So they're basing this conclusion on going way too much into the past, into unreliable territory of tiny volumes/prices.

I do agree that going too far into 2010 is going to give way too tiny of numbers that it is not a fair representation, so yeah maybe we can still agree to disagree whether 2011 numbers are helpful in this regard or if the earlier dates are just way too inflammatory in their representations because the starting out points do end up being so small, even in 2011 when we don't see BTC prices above $1 until about January/February 2011, but once BTC prices went above $1 they did end up staying there, even after the mid-2011 price peak to $32-ish that ended up correcting to $2-ish.. and gosh.. maybe we could start measuring from $1, even though there are still prices in January 2011 that are below $1.. but still even if it is seeming somewhat random, starting from $1 does seem to have some calculation ease within it, and it would be after there had been a decent amount of quite rudimentary price discovery for 6 to 9 months prior to that...

Are you annoyed by their seeming to get the numbers wrong?  or are you annoyed because they are stealing your idea without giving proper credit?

The first.

I just think it's important to establish a rough estimate of a multi-year trend for such volatile asset. Since it's based on 4-year halving cycle, I think considering the last 8 years is fine, like on that PlanB's chart. His black 200WMA line is also fine, since it roughly keeps the slope year-after-year. It's almost linear.

Of course the 200WMA keeps moving up and its slope is greater during periods of greater price divergence.. and sure there might be some extended time that BTC prices do end up going below the 200WMA.. but so far has been quite rare.. and even in March 2020 when prices dipped down to $3,850, we really ONLY had a few days below the 200WMA.. which was around $5k at the time of that March 2020 dippening.
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April 09, 2021, 04:04:56 PM

Yes that’s always true “Not your keys, Not your coins”

One question how much can we trust these third party wallets then? Specially these wallets on our mobile apps. Although they give us access to the private keys but still can we trust them? I have been using Jaxx. But often I will open my wallet to confirm my coins are still there or some developer of Jaxx have already transferred my funds to some cold wallet :p

Why use Jaxx when Bitcoin for Android and Electrum works? What do these other wallets have? I understand some like Casa and Unchained are multi-signature services but you can also do those on your own.

Does Jaxx publish their source code for the app? Can you compile it yourself and check?

And Electrum have been promising easy multisig for a while. I expect they'll deliver when it's tested appropriately.


Thank you so much guys... I'm using Electrum now.

I have been using iPhone but for my bitcoins today I bought second phone Samsung galaxy S8... just for using Electrum and for the safety of my bitcoins and finally transferred my Jaxx bitcoins to Electrum wallet.

I'm sure bitcoin will pay off this little investment too.

Good stuff Smiley
Today I also just published my implementation of an Electrum server: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5329445
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April 09, 2021, 04:49:27 PM

Another thing is that you seem to be ongoingly suggesting (or is it whining) that there are some other coins out there that are better than bitcoin, but surely you leave these implications in vague ways because you probably realize that there ain't shit out there that is even close to being as good as bitcoin, but you want to leave that vague implication out there as if there is some kind of valid criticism of bitcoin that is contained within it.

Well, since I was directly asked, I will respond. No, I'm certainly not shilling other coins. I don't hate them other than the obvious scams (of which there are too many to count), I simply have no interest in them. The trivial amount of Litecoin I have is from trying out scrypt mining with a GPU way back when and the ETH is a similarly tiny amount bought on a whim. I had hoped that BCH would be able to address the capacity issue but for a variety of reasons, it was unable to take the crown and as its major attraction over other alts was that its fork nature meant that it had the potential to take the user base with it. As time has passed, it has moved more and more away from that and has basically reverted to just another alt. BSV is simply a joke because of the close association with the clown, CSW.

Well, at least you admit that there is nothing even close to bitcoin, and yeah we do not necessarily need to elaborate in regards to those various other shitcoins, but if we are currently both recognizing them as largely shitcoins that are not even close to bitcoin in terms of any kind of potentiality, then that is a good place to agree upon.


Here's the thing, love SOV as much as you like, not addressing the on-chain capacity restriction is going to have some effect on certain aspects of Bitcoin that were long considered to be important aspects of it.

Here's where we get into battle because you are getting into prescriptive areas rather than descriptive, and whining because bitcoin is not good enough in some aspects that you wished it to be better.. so just do not use it or allocate out of it to the extent that that aspect of "on-chain" capacity is deficient.. or work on improving that or fund someone to work on improving it.  It just seems a bit derailing to be asserting bitcoin does not do x even though it does y and z. .and whining about x ongoingly... including that some people either do not consider x to be as big of a deal as you and some people consider having limited x remains a feature rather than a bug.. so.. your ongoingly framing x as a problem seems to be a problem with you rather than a problem with bitcoin.


When those aspects are brought up in thread, the correct answer is simply the correct answer.

I don't know about that..  There is descriptive and there is prescriptive, and when you talk about descriptive there are going to be some answers that are way more accurate (and therefore correct) than others and when you talk about prescriptive, we are going to go all over the place in terms of what might be better blah blah blah.. and there is likely no correct answer even though some have more rationale and justification than others.

Now, adding a different perspective on that answer "That is true but SOV/decentralization/what have you is more important" is fine but people go off on all sorts of tangents about what they think I'm saying. Not so many years ago, it was quite common to give away a little bit of bitcoin to get people interested. Not reasonable anymore. Bitcoin used to be viewed as for the world and now it's just for the rich. Now, whether that's OK or not is a discussion that could be had but people just don't want to admit it.

You are devolving into making shit up again.  People do not need to buy a whole bitcoin, and also they can profit from merely stacking sats.  Furthermore, people have had quite a long time to front run institutions and richie peeps, and surely more institutions and richie peeps are coming into bitcoin but normies can still get in.. they just have to pay more the longer they wait (even if there are likely to continue to be dips along the way, we just cannot know when such dips are going to be coming or how much of dips are going to be coming).

I don't really have much against second layer solutions either but we hit full blocks in 2016 and now it's 2021.

Here, even if you are NOT making shit up, you are exaggerating.  Sure there may be times in which 1 sat per byte transactions are not going to go through, so in that regard, when that heavy spamming bullshit was happening in late 2017 until January 2018, that has proven to be such a gold mine for making up shit, and of course, there has been more attention to fees and how much it will cost to get BTC transactions to go through.. so of course, there are ways to attempt to send transactions with low fees, but surely when dealing with strangers or if the delivery of the product is needed quickly, there might be a desire to get the transaction to go through quickly so then a measuring of fees to cause such transaction to go through quickly.

Of course, the more fees the less feasible to be using onchain bitcoin transactions for smaller transactions, even below $1k might seem to be a small transaction if fees go up to $100 during short periods of time... so people will weigh such fee options based on their circumstances too, which kind of seems to be a feature and not a bug as you are making it out to be a bug... but at the same time, second layer is likely going to serve more and more important roles in the future, especially if we get another 10x to 100x price rise from here, and of course the block reward ongoingly decreasing as well in every 4 year increments until completely vanishing in 2140 (likely sooner).

LN was already in development at that stage and still is not delivering.

Well, you may recall that in January 2018, there were some folks who ended up causing lightning network to go live in a kind of rush response to the ongoing then spammenings of the bitcoin network that had been happening for nearly 2 months at that time, and surely a lot of bitcoiners considered that move to be reckless, but it seemed to have contributed to a stop of the then spamming... so yeah, lightning network continues to get worked on and seems to be ongoingly becoming more and more capable and reliable...

So whatever in terms of your desire to prematurely label lighting network as dead or suggest it to NOT be unimportant even though from your perspective it could be better blah blah blah.. getting into your prescriptive bullshit (we could call it the richie T wishlist... .. which is a BIG fucking so what, no?.. bitcoin gives no shits what you want.. either you see value in bitcoin and you use it or you do not or maybe you just allocate less into bitcoin.. which you already know that... I would suspect.. even though you keep whining about how bitcoin is not satisfying your needs)


Someone will quote me some number of LN nodes but that's a totally irrelevant stat if it is still not properly useful. It should also be noted that opening an LN channel requires one transaction and closing it another. Simply put, Bitcoin doesn't have the capacity for LN to be used by a meaningful number of people.

Ok.. don't use it then....and we will see if LN (and/or other second/third layer solutions) becomes more and more used with the passage of time. 

The LN developers have even effectively stated this themselves. LN, although potentially an excellent solution for what it was designed for, micropayments, also has several shortcomings for use in the manner that second-layer proponents are advocating. Seriously, if you're a LN advocate and haven't read and comprehended LN's shortcomings, you're underinformed and in for a shock.

ditto my above answer.. and there are still a large number of peeps who hardly have a fucking clue about what LN is, so it is difficult to assert that they are underinformed or do not comprehend when they hardly even know about it.


So yeah, in summary, while I've never been a hardline BTC maximalist, it's always been my favorite coin and I just wish we weren't still passing around blocks on these.



You hardly make any sense on this point Richy.. You seem to be wanting to spout out some kind of nonsense about bitcoin being "grandpa coin" which is hardly even close to the case.  As you likely realize, but maybe fail to appreciate, is that bitcoin remains paradigm shifting technology that has come along way since its October 2008 white paper and its January 2009 activation.. and there have surely been tweaks and developments along the way that keep it serving its original objectives and amazing levels of adoption, development, network effects, and future potential that is already built on strong foundations that you want to ongoingly poo poo as if some shitcoin might be better, even though you admit there is nothing that even comes close, but you still want to whine about grandpa coin not being enough for you.  I hardly get your purpose, but hey hopefully some day you will figure out some ways to balance a bit more, and maybe get to fucking work on chartbuddy, so we can at least get some pleasures to balance out the pain of having to put up with your ongoing seemingly persistent whinings... #nohomo... you fuck.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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April 09, 2021, 05:07:52 PM
Merited by LoyceV (2)

It’s still early days of Bitcoin.
Want proof?
Here traditional media and journalists have just started sitting and telling us about Public/Private Keys

https://youtu.be/Cwgw6dqMY6k
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April 09, 2021, 05:13:54 PM

Seems we're out of the downward channel.
* OutOfMemory prays: Please make it permanent, please make it permanent, please make it....

 Roll Eyes

hourly candle: "hold my beer..."
But hey, i got excited a little, better than nothing  Grin
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April 09, 2021, 05:19:53 PM

Who subscribes to the thesis "One last dump to scare them all"?
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April 09, 2021, 05:26:32 PM

Now that Philip is gone and Liz is on her own hopefully we hear less from the toxic Harry - Meghan assholes.
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April 09, 2021, 05:55:21 PM

Now that Philip is gone and Liz is on her own hopefully we hear less from the toxic Harry - Meghan assholes.

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April 09, 2021, 06:28:25 PM
Merited by wxa7115 (1)

@cryptomanran
Let's bet that $BITCOIN breaks All Time High the day Coinbase lists next week!
https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/1380254708506501133?s=21

I bet it magically breaks ATH the day before the Coinbase listing. On Coinbase at least.

I've been shit reporting - again - a bit lately and therefore I'm a bit confused now: could you tell me which Bitcoin ATH you guys mean exactly? The latest one or the one before that?

the latest ATH price from BAT is about $1.38

Huh? 

There is ONLY one ATH.. and currently that is at $61,782 from March 13.

I understand that in 2020 we had a decent amount of talk about the AYH... (the high for the year).. but once we broke $19,666 (which had been the standing ATH from December 2017 until around mid December 2020.. those new ATH became the talking points - except maybe if we are considering some kind of local high.. but there have not been too many local highs since mid December 2020.. I mean not really enough time has passed to cause any of those other to be worried about numbers..  to become very relevant in the whole scheme of things (at least so far).

from $20 (two pizzas) for 10000 btc

No no no. Going that much back makes no sense. It was completely unreliable territory price-wise.

Markets as we know are just an exercise on price discovery, since its creation bitcoin should have held a very high price but it didn't, even now the price is very low compared to its real value but unfortunately we have to wait for the masses to wake up, as such I agree with your notion that prices back then should be disregarded, if anything I wonder if in 20 or 30 years once the value and the price of bitcoin finally match each other if people will think of bitcoin trading at 60k in the same way in which we think of those 10000 BTC being used to buy two pizzas and will disregard everything which happened before 2021.

You are bringing up some interesting observations WXA.. .which contributes to my assessment that we should be continuing to account for the early dates if we want to understand bitcoin overall.  Of course, there are going to be platforming ups along the way, and the stock to flow charts already seem to account for those platforming ups.. but even within each of the platforms there exit price ranges and price dynamics that are understandable considering which platform is being assessed.. so I am sticking to my guns and asserting that either $1 or the beginning of 2011 is a sufficiently valid starting off point because by then,  there had already been a decent amount of BTC price discovery, even if considered somewhat inadequate in terms of price discovery tools that were introduced thereafter.
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April 09, 2021, 06:45:54 PM

Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.
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April 09, 2021, 07:12:26 PM

Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.

That was pretty amazing. I always wondered, were they playing instruments live or was it synced to a track? I think it was live.
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April 09, 2021, 07:13:23 PM

It’s still early days of Bitcoin.
Want proof?
Here traditional media and journalists have just started sitting and telling us about Public/Private Keys

https://youtu.be/Cwgw6dqMY6k
I think in a matter of decades* those from 2020-2021 will be seen the same way we see today those people who got into Bitcoin back in 2010.

The average guy is so far behind they don't even know what inflation or fiat is. I don't expect them to wake up too soon, lol.

*years....., if a miracle somehow happens
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April 09, 2021, 07:13:57 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), Arriemoller (1)

On a happier note, some serious science on the vaccine effectiveness: Quick summary, you get the vaccine you will not die of COVID and you can't really spread it.

https://www.bioserendipity.com/vaccine-effectiveness-against-severe-covid-19-and-transmission/

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