Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[milkshock100]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

so the presence of instiutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

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[milkshock100]

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

exactly.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

[Arriemoller]

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

That is a possibility, but I don't think we are there yet, maybe next cycle.

[strawbs]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

That sounds like a terrible idea, to be honest. Firstly, with the amount of institutional capital flowing into btc recently, there's a significant possibility that its four year bear/bull market cycle could have been broken. All signs (other than looking backwards to historic patterns which in no way predict future patterns) point towards BTC making increasing gains - CBs printing fiat for fun and the associated incoming inflation; unsustainable stocks prices; major corporations holding btc on their balance sheets; governments probably doing the same; etc etc. The list goes on and these developments mean that btc is inhabiting a totally different place to where it was four years ago. It wouldn't be surprising to never see a btc bear market again - 80% dips could be a thing of the past, never to be seen again.

Also, trying to time the top is pretty much impossible and will only happen with a huge chunk of luck.

I wouldn't advise anyone to swap btc for stocks anytime, ever.

[BitcoinBunny]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

You might be right. In that scenario however I think it will be alts that would face the biggest exists.
I mean, the Dogecoin rallies. Really? 

[JayJuanGee]

By the By today is my 8th Year Anniversary of finding out about Bitcoin! April 13th, 2013!

I have memories of buying my first bitcoin in April 2011, and I just searched my email to see if I could fit the exact date.

27th of May

OK, close enough.

Wiring $500 to MtGox. Sketchy as frig.

I just don't have my original forums account here, someone nicked it.

that should have been about 50 btc, give or take aka $3mil today.

I then went back and spent a bit over $2.5k total over the next 2 weeks. I had 168 btc total back then.

I do not have 168 btc now though. I learnt my Hodl lessons in trading. Easy to make btc in a bear market, hard when it turns bullish, as it did in 2013.

I am doing well though, your estimate isn't far off. I've sold off ~$250k worth between 2017 and today.

Maybe this rendition shows that BTC can rescue even pretty short-sighted and seemingly inept strategies to cause the largely BTC HODLer to still come off as seeming to be close to genius, even if having less than 1/3 of their original BTC stashes.

A kind of balance remains in terms of needs to take some profits along the way and holding onto a sufficient quantity of BTC and surely each of us are going to come to those balancing considerations in different ways, including that if we have something like less than $10k of investment into BTC (if I am getting these facts correct?), but over the years, we are able to take $250k out as cash and we are also still holding onto BTC that exceeds $3million in value, there would be and should be a certain feeling of empowerment and maybe even feelings of fortune to feel that you are and have been playing largely with house money.

Maybe you, dakiller322, have not given enough facts, but it does seem that you have a pretty great return on what appears to have been about a less than $10k investment, unless maybe I am getting your investment quantity wrong, no?

Easy to make btc in a bear market, hard when it turns bullish, as it did in 2013.

Easy bear market -
Drink vitriol, short the corn
hybris gets punished.
#haiku

Hybris = hubris?  Is that what you mean, d_eddie?  or did I miss something?

I looked up hybris and I got hybris meaning the same as hubris in ancient Greece.. even though we are not ancient greeks here, are we?  Or you, d_eddie, are trying to lurn us some things?

[Biodom]

My man in Havana sends me this screenshot of the tokenised Greymarket of COIN US:

580 USD per shares means almost 200 BLN of market cap.
YUGE.




Expect some rollercoaster, on COIN, but BTC also.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is the favorite whale past-time.

Why buy overpriced COIN, when we have btc and.....doge (kidding)?
I had some $ in ret account allocation prepared for COIN, but 100% sure will not buy at 580 or anything close to it.
Will observe with awe, hopefully.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

so the presence of institutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

No, it doesn't mean anything to me, the institutional investors are still few and they are most likely hodlers so their holdings won't significantly impact the bear year, and the fact that we have risen in parallel lately is just a coincidence where stonk uppity indicators and bitcoin uppity indicators happen to appear in the same time frame, with some overlapping of course, but not enough to say that they are intertwined.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

That sounds like a terrible idea, to be honest. Firstly, with the amount of institutional capital flowing into btc recently, there's a significant possibility that its four year bear/bull market cycle could have been broken. All signs (other than looking backwards to historic patterns which in no way predict future patterns) point towards BTC making increasing gains - CBs printing fiat for fun and the associated incoming inflation; unsustainable stocks prices; major corporations holding btc on their balance sheets; governments probably doing the same; etc etc. The list goes on and these developments mean that btc is inhabiting a totally different place to where it was four years ago. It wouldn't be surprising to never see a btc bear market again - 80% dips could be a thing of the past, never to be seen again.

Also, trying to time the top is pretty much impossible and will only happen with a huge chunk of luck.

I wouldn't advise anyone to swap btc for stocks anytime, ever.

Nah, that's what people said alredy back in 2017 (including me) and we were all wrong, I have learned that "this time is different" doesn't exist.

About selling the top, You have to factor in that I bought around the 200-400 dollar range and selling at say 100k would give me a huge profit even if it then goes on to 200k.
My actual strategy is to sell chunks at preset numbers, starting with one fourth at 100k.

[_javi_]

Look away for 30 seconds, miss the new ath

waiting for of a pic of the C128 next

and then the Amiga line..

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

[Arriemoller]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

I don't think he's completely correct either. So it could be there might be a bear winter thing, but maybe not 80% to 90% corrections. If you are prepared for that, and we get a smaller one, then you should be fine.

[gallianooo]

NASDAQ still not open ?

https://www.nasdaq.com/fr/market-activity/stocks/coin/real-time

Don't see anything for COINBASE.. 

[philipma1957]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

You might be right. In that scenario however I think it will be alts that would face the biggest exists.
I mean, the Dogecoin rallies. Really? 

Because it is well backed by hard iron = ie lots of asics.

If you believe in satoshi that pow and decentralized structure is good  (ie BTC)  than the step to have some belief for LTC/Doge merge mined coins does exist.

Basically almost no coins other than BTC make sense but LTC/Doge do if you believe that pow and decentralized structure works.

I did not bring up the subject of an alt coin you did.

I was asked not to talk about alts in this thread a while back. So I simply ask you to do the same.


BTW I cash in Doge yesterday and today. I convert them into LTC.  I then sold some of the LTC in fiat and the rest into you guess it BTC.

Please do me a favor and do not talk about DOGE or LTC.  
If you mine Doge/LTC like I do it is a way to get discounted BTC that is why DOGE rallies.

Here is the math. 20x L3+ miners earn  61 usd a day in ltc and now 39 usd a day in Doge that is 100 usd a day.

they burn 336 kwatts to do it. so at 10 cent power 100-33.6 = 66.4 profit.

or I pay 33.6 cent on the dollar for that coin which I change into BTC

That means I buy btc at 21504 a coin. With 10 cent power

And I buy Btc at 10752 with 5 cent power.

That is why Doge rallies along with LTC

I will make you a deal and not defend doge it you do not talk about it here.

This is not about ego bro it is simply why DOGE whales along with LTC.

[JayJuanGee]

I'll provide my "story" as well, as I pulled a Bawb as well and "took a little off the top" today.

Joined this forum 11/26/2013 after buying my first coin a month prior in October.  Bought the "top" at $1,000 back then, then continued to buy all the way down haha to $190.  Then I stopped, thinking oh man, what did I get myself into.  But never did stop believing.

What a wonderful opportunity this has afforded me, as I just took early retirement at age 50 and bought a second small home in Oregon and will be caddying part time starting around the end of this summer at Bandon Dunes.

What a majestic use of this invention, it propelled me to be able to step back and get out of the rat race at least ten years earlier than I would have been able to do without it.

So glad a friend emailed me an article about it at work one day.  I remember sending him .15 of a coin as a thank you, at the time, this would have been a $100 gift.  I do think he still has this $9k+ gift today.

Love reading all the success stories and am definitely trying to keep my stash as robust as I can, and will continue to sell the dips and buy at the top going forward haha

Wow, that's great to hear. I had 21 BTC at one point, then kept liquidating along the way, partly due to debts, partly due to holidays. Today i have less than 1 BTC but it has been a fun ride. I am debt free with a home already paid for, cant say i did too badly, but there is always that lingering thought of "What if...". Fantastic to see someone who actually harnessed the full potential of bitcoin! More power to you!

I was considering whether it is worth any kind of comment for anyone who has been into BTC nearly as long as me (going by your registration date) to be thinking that it is a good thing to currently have ONLY less than 1 BTC.. or even if we round up to 1 BTC, there seems to be something wrong with such a picture.

1BTC might not be a bad goal for someone who is either just getting into BTC or maybe only been in BTC for a year or two, but for someone who has presumably been in bitcoin for 7 years-ish, we should be concerned about such paltry level of BTC accumulation, no?

I am pretty sure that I told this story before, but I had a girlfriend in 2015-2016 who I introduced to bitcoin, and she started buying BTC around the lower $200s, and she acquired around 17 BTC, so in November 2015, when the BTC price shot up from mid-$200s to $504, she sold all of her BTC for around $350, and she made something like $1,900, so she was quite happy with her decision, and she said that she bought a nice purse with that money.  She was getting kind of nervous when the BTC price went up to $500, and I kept telling her to buy back.  At one point, she agreed that she would buy back at $300, and she would get back the 17 BTC or something like that.

So she was going to manually enter her BTC buy, and for like an hour the BTC price went down to her $300 buy price, and around that time, I sent her a text and asked her if she had bought back, and she said that she was "on the phone" at the time that the price had dropped, but she would buy back on the next dip... and sure she had quite a bit of patience, but the price did not dip to $300 again, and she ended up buying back some BTC around $415.. Maybe it was around 12 BTC or something like that, but for several months in mid to late 2016, she was reminiscing that she used to have 17 BTC, but that she would never be able to reach that level again, and part of her problem was that she had little to no conviction about BTC and she valued her wealth in dollars (or purses), and she would frequently proclaim that there was a need to live in the present and there were some difficulties that she had with delayed gratification. 

I kind of fell out of contact with her, and I am thinking that she surely does not have very many BTC.. maybe she has 1 BTC presently?  but I don't know.  She was not a dumb person, but she did frequently consider that she had abilities to outsmart the market, and I did attempt to impart some longer term ideas upon her that involved BTC accumulation.. but she had some struggles with those accumulation ideas - and maybe she continued to see a bubble or had fears of the BTC price falling so she could not hang onto her BTC through such periods.

I might have even started some her issues because I recall that somewhere in mid-to-late 2015, Circle had changed one of its features to depict account value in dollars rather than BTC, and my mom told me that she had clicked on that button  (I believe that my mom may have had 20 or so BTC at that time, perhaps?), and the BTC price was around $230, and I said "holy fuck.. they tricked you into selling all of your BTC" You better "unclick that button" as soon as possible to get back your BTC, otherwise you are going to get screwed if the BTC price goes shooting up and all your account (that you believe to be in BTC) is in dollars.  My mom followed my suggestion, and my GF said that part of her reason for playing around with converting her whole BTC stash back and forth between BTC and dollars was because I told her about that converting feature that existed on the Circle platform, and we both had laughed when my mom had converted all of her BTC into dollars - kind of implying that we were both smarter than my mom.. hahahahahaha.  Through the years, my mom had proven herself to be quite a bit smarter than that GF because even though she had some trouble getting back up to her all time high holdings of 21 BTC or so (perhaps similar to you, micky123, she still has a pretty decently sized stash, even though I think that she cashed out around 4 BTC in the $14ks in 2018. .and maybe she has been cashing out a few here and there along the way. 

Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

[Richy_T]

If you do badly at school just say Proudhon was your math and science teacher.

Proudhon is my meth teacher.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Another ATH ($64895 Stamp), a fat-finger micro-dip down to $61418 and leveling out above yesterday's high... currently $63675USD/$80070CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Whew. Ain't we got fun?

Go Bitcoin go.

[eddie13]

Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

Being poor, being born into a shit situation/location, living paycheck to paycheck, and sometimes not even that..

That’s why I have been so adamant about NOT selling, because these lottery tickets are basically irreplaceable..
Were, even at sub 10k levels..

I’ve managed to get and hold onto more than one, but any pragmatic person in many of my past situations would have sold them all to keep up in real life, but I did not, and still will not..
I’m doing much better these days, but not everyone have disposable income for wild investments..



On another note, I bet half or more of DT1 on this forum can’t even sign a half a Bitcoin, much less one whole Bitcoin.. Many not even 1/4 or even 1/10th a coin..
How do you feel about most of the democratically elected community leadership on this forum (DT) don’t even have any skin in the game?

Especially the 3rd world althunter circle with +10 positive trust each in a circlejerk for “finding alts” and being obsessed with leaving red tags.. Most not even having 1/4mm sat to rub together..

Doesn’t seem like the most optimal situation to me..
What do you think?