Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rdbase]

My man in Havana sends me this screenshot of the tokenised Greymarket of COIN US:
580 USD per shares means almost 200 BLN of market cap.
YUGE.

Expect some rollercoaster, on COIN, but BTC also.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is the favorite whale past-time.

Knew the coinbase IPO would be shaking up the markets today but it seemed to have spiked the price just when it opened. See the spike 2 hours ago on the bitstamp chart:


But it has recovered now to a new ATH at $64.4k.
Expect it to rise once it settles in on wallstreet what BTC truly means to businesses around the world.

[JayJuanGee]

[The crypto winter was 2014.
In 2015 the recovery started from a super dip below 200 USD in January, and ended over 450 USD in December, more then a doubling. That's not exactly a bear market.

Hm yeah, the winter caught more than the first half of 2015 as well tho.

There sometimes can develop a bit of a delusion when it comes to describing history, so yeah there was a downfall of price in 2014 that got us down into the mid $100s in January 2015, and then almost all of 2015 was flat (or down) in the mid $200s for the most part, and in the end of August 2015, there was even a dip back down to $200 and even through about half of October 2015, we were having some struggles of getting above $250 - so there was not much if any confidence until then end of October/early November to have the price rally to $504 and thereby correct into the $300s and $400s until the end of May 2016....

Of course, there were signs of optimism at the end of 2015, but really the market recovery for even people who may have been engaging in decent DCA practices (and or attempts to buy on dips and HODL) might not have recovered very convincingly until late 2016 or so when BTC prices clearly started getting to $700 and above (even though we did not stay there for too long relatively speaking).

I remember this very well since 2015 is the year I threw away most of my coins at random stuff so that I wouldn't lose my Bitcoin holdings since there were rumors it was on the brink of death. Big mistake. Paid a (now) damn fortune on crap and all I really lost is a final chance to accumulate the hell out of BTC.

Surely there was a considerable potential to really accumulate BTC during that 2015-ish time, and your (kevin) post goes to show that even in 2015 there was a decent amount of shitcoin distractions, and there was a lot of lacking in confidence in BTC that was likely peaking towards the end of 2015, and the little rally of October/November 2015 did not even bring great confidence since it took until late May 2016 for the BTC price to get back above $500... I certainly gained a decent amount of restored confidence from the October/November 2015 rally and the end of May 2016 rally, yet gosh, I will even say that the August 2016 shenanigans on Bitfinex (with the supposed hackening of 119k BTC) caused additional pessimism, including the FUDsters coming out in great force.

And, maybe in the end, we can look back and say, we should have been accumulating BTC during that time, so there were definitely no exact clear signs that BTC was the right way to go, but surely anyone could have still established a BTC portfolio that was 1% to 10% of the value of their quasi-liquid investments and ended up doing quite well based on really modest and even the most conservative (presuming 1%)of investments into BTC would have ended up performing quite well with BTC being known, even then, to be an asymmetric bet, and so many people failed/refused to even accomplish the bare minimum (again referring to a mere 1% allocation to BTC) to take advantage of the asymmetric bet.

Anyway, we're talking about a timeframe of approximately 1 year and 9 months of bearish markets.

Sure there are ways to frame the timeline in shorter periods - such as going from the 2014 continued downfall in BTC prices through 2015, but still I would still calculate the time period as closer to 3 years in terms of really  having some confidence of being out of the mess - even though clearly in retrospect, we can measure the bullmarket starting from October 2015 and lasting a bit more than 2 years, but we did not really know for sure that we were in a bull market for a considerable time.. and some people took longer than others to come to such a "bull market" assessment.

Similar with the 2018 to 2020 correction.. can really be unclear when the bull market started back up, exactly, but in retrospect, it seems quite apparent by mid-May 2019 that we should have had decent signs that we were in a bull market, even though there was a further dip in March 2020 to cause confusion about that already existing "bull market" status - that continues to be the one that we are in and not really clear about how long such bull market is going to last... but still even though we are in a bull market and have been in a bull market, there have been some people who have both been confused by our status or even feeling that their portfolios were underwater because their investment costs were greater than the BTC price for a decent amount of time  (referring to our continuing to go below $10k and even the uncertainties about supra $10k being sustainable as late as September 2020 during the last challenge (or so it seems) to $10k).

If you get caught in that with only BTC laying around and no cash reserves or other sources of income, you're pretty f*cked. Those +120 years of reserves will suddenly turn into just a decade, if you're lucky and have no financial "surprises" along the way.

I agree with you, kevin, that using tops to measure where you are at are going to cause your supposed reserves to shrink down to nothing because there was a kind of fail refusal to account for volatility and including accounting for possible bottoms (or that the bottoms might last for a decent amount of time).

Anyway, it seems like inflation is taking a hit in the US at least: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897

My grocery bills have also increased over the past year. In fact, almost all prices had an increase of at least a few %. Guess what, this means Bitcoin might go nuts soon. Imagine halving bull cycles mixed up with some good inflation and scarcity. The helicopter graph from earlier today might need to switch from $5k to $5k instead of $1k soon.

Agree on these points.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

[BitcoinBunny]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

I can see both sides to this. Of course you are right historically speaking but the stock market and Bitcoin are now more intertwined than before.
Like I said: I think it's risky.

[eddie13]

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

[milkshock100]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

so the presence of instiutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

[milkshock100]

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

exactly.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

[Arriemoller]

With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

That is a possibility, but I don't think we are there yet, maybe next cycle.

[strawbs]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

That sounds like a terrible idea, to be honest. Firstly, with the amount of institutional capital flowing into btc recently, there's a significant possibility that its four year bear/bull market cycle could have been broken. All signs (other than looking backwards to historic patterns which in no way predict future patterns) point towards BTC making increasing gains - CBs printing fiat for fun and the associated incoming inflation; unsustainable stocks prices; major corporations holding btc on their balance sheets; governments probably doing the same; etc etc. The list goes on and these developments mean that btc is inhabiting a totally different place to where it was four years ago. It wouldn't be surprising to never see a btc bear market again - 80% dips could be a thing of the past, never to be seen again.

Also, trying to time the top is pretty much impossible and will only happen with a huge chunk of luck.

I wouldn't advise anyone to swap btc for stocks anytime, ever.

[BitcoinBunny]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.

You might be right. In that scenario however I think it will be alts that would face the biggest exists.
I mean, the Dogecoin rallies. Really? 

[JayJuanGee]

By the By today is my 8th Year Anniversary of finding out about Bitcoin! April 13th, 2013!

I have memories of buying my first bitcoin in April 2011, and I just searched my email to see if I could fit the exact date.

27th of May

OK, close enough.

Wiring $500 to MtGox. Sketchy as frig.

I just don't have my original forums account here, someone nicked it.

that should have been about 50 btc, give or take aka $3mil today.

I then went back and spent a bit over $2.5k total over the next 2 weeks. I had 168 btc total back then.

I do not have 168 btc now though. I learnt my Hodl lessons in trading. Easy to make btc in a bear market, hard when it turns bullish, as it did in 2013.

I am doing well though, your estimate isn't far off. I've sold off ~$250k worth between 2017 and today.

Maybe this rendition shows that BTC can rescue even pretty short-sighted and seemingly inept strategies to cause the largely BTC HODLer to still come off as seeming to be close to genius, even if having less than 1/3 of their original BTC stashes.

A kind of balance remains in terms of needs to take some profits along the way and holding onto a sufficient quantity of BTC and surely each of us are going to come to those balancing considerations in different ways, including that if we have something like less than $10k of investment into BTC (if I am getting these facts correct?), but over the years, we are able to take $250k out as cash and we are also still holding onto BTC that exceeds $3million in value, there would be and should be a certain feeling of empowerment and maybe even feelings of fortune to feel that you are and have been playing largely with house money.

Maybe you, dakiller322, have not given enough facts, but it does seem that you have a pretty great return on what appears to have been about a less than $10k investment, unless maybe I am getting your investment quantity wrong, no?

Easy to make btc in a bear market, hard when it turns bullish, as it did in 2013.

Easy bear market -
Drink vitriol, short the corn
hybris gets punished.
#haiku

Hybris = hubris?  Is that what you mean, d_eddie?  or did I miss something?

I looked up hybris and I got hybris meaning the same as hubris in ancient Greece.. even though we are not ancient greeks here, are we?  Or you, d_eddie, are trying to lurn us some things?

[Biodom]

My man in Havana sends me this screenshot of the tokenised Greymarket of COIN US:

580 USD per shares means almost 200 BLN of market cap.
YUGE.




Expect some rollercoaster, on COIN, but BTC also.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is the favorite whale past-time.

Why buy overpriced COIN, when we have btc and.....doge (kidding)?
I had some $ in ret account allocation prepared for COIN, but 100% sure will not buy at 580 or anything close to it.
Will observe with awe, hopefully.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

so the presence of institutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

No, it doesn't mean anything to me, the institutional investors are still few and they are most likely hodlers so their holdings won't significantly impact the bear year, and the fact that we have risen in parallel lately is just a coincidence where stonk uppity indicators and bitcoin uppity indicators happen to appear in the same time frame, with some overlapping of course, but not enough to say that they are intertwined.

[Arriemoller]

I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

That sounds like a terrible idea, to be honest. Firstly, with the amount of institutional capital flowing into btc recently, there's a significant possibility that its four year bear/bull market cycle could have been broken. All signs (other than looking backwards to historic patterns which in no way predict future patterns) point towards BTC making increasing gains - CBs printing fiat for fun and the associated incoming inflation; unsustainable stocks prices; major corporations holding btc on their balance sheets; governments probably doing the same; etc etc. The list goes on and these developments mean that btc is inhabiting a totally different place to where it was four years ago. It wouldn't be surprising to never see a btc bear market again - 80% dips could be a thing of the past, never to be seen again.

Also, trying to time the top is pretty much impossible and will only happen with a huge chunk of luck.

I wouldn't advise anyone to swap btc for stocks anytime, ever.

Nah, that's what people said alredy back in 2017 (including me) and we were all wrong, I have learned that "this time is different" doesn't exist.

About selling the top, You have to factor in that I bought around the 200-400 dollar range and selling at say 100k would give me a huge profit even if it then goes on to 200k.
My actual strategy is to sell chunks at preset numbers, starting with one fourth at 100k.

[_javi_]

Look away for 30 seconds, miss the new ath

waiting for of a pic of the C128 next

and then the Amiga line..

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

[Arriemoller]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

I don't think he's completely correct either. So it could be there might be a bear winter thing, but maybe not 80% to 90% corrections. If you are prepared for that, and we get a smaller one, then you should be fine.

[gallianooo]

NASDAQ still not open ?

https://www.nasdaq.com/fr/market-activity/stocks/coin/real-time

Don't see anything for COINBASE..