Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Thinking out aloud here. My thoughts are we are now in a 2013 type market. I don't think we'll get a huge dump like we saw in April of that year, 30% correction from highs at most, but I think that we will be doing a lot of sideways action for several months.

On chain is still showing coins being moved off exchange to hodlers, this is good and will be the reason for the next pump, but like a halving, this takes time to flow through to price.

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[OutOfMemory]

Borrowed roughly $550 from ma wife for buying the after-dip 
As i spent it, i realized it's like spending about $25 in late Q3/2017, when i started, and it will possibly be like spending about $12.000 in 2025, considering things play out roughly linear.

[heslo]

Borrowed roughly $550 from ma wife for buying the after-dip 
As i spent it, i realized it's like spending about $25 in late Q3/2017, when i started, and it will possibly be like spending about $12.000 in 2025, considering things play out roughly linear.

Better than never spending it for bitcoin at all!

[LoyceV]

Borrowed roughly $550 from ma wife for buying the after-dip 
As i spent it, i realized it's like spending about $25 in late Q3/2017, when i started, and it will possibly be like spending about $12.000 in 2025, considering things play out roughly linear.

That's quite some inflation for the dollar.

[BitcoinBunny]

House prices up 8.6% here in Covid rife UK in the past year.
Council tax increase on average 4.3%
Supermarket price increases are not declared but reading between the lines I'd estimate 4-5% easy if you read the price hikes during Covid on certain products and average these out.

Petrol hasn't risen much since last year due to low oil price for most of that time but we are still talking 3.3% at minimum now.
Like I said before my barbers went up 20-25%. I suspect he won't be the only one raising prices after Covid.

But miraculously official yearly inflation is still under 2%.
Funny that hey?

Top job Bank of England!  

[gallianooo]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

[somac.]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

[vapourminer]

House prices up 8.6% here in Covid rife UK in the past year.
Council tax increase on average 4.3%
Supermarket price increases are not declared but reading between the lines I'd estimate 4-5% easy if you read the price hikes during Covid on certain products and average these out.

Petrol hasn't risen much since last year due to low oil price for most of that time but we are still talking 3.3% at minimum now.
Like I said before my barbers went up 20-25%. I suspect he won't be the only one raising prices after Covid.

But miraculously official yearly inflation is still under 2%.
Funny that hey?

Top job Bank of England!  

dont worry; the USA will blow by you guys like youre standing still.

[strawbs]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

[gallianooo]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@sebdebandt
This isn't the cycle top.
#bitcoin  has been trading within 20% of ATH for 51 days.
That's not what a top looks like.
Zoom out.

https://twitter.com/sebdebandt/status/1384836322758742019?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

[gallianooo]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

I'm just saying it's fucking soft, that's a fact. I don't cry, I just make observation. I am into BTC since early 2015 (200$ each) and never sold any of them since.

I know you like to repeat we made new ATHs and blabla. Yes true, but I don't really consider this as It is ATH +1-5%. It is more like a "sideway ATH". Still far from a real move UP, with a real new UP leg.

[Biodom]

Transaction fees are crazy as pointed out above.  
Maybe we are heading for a dip first? Not wanting that but just being realistic.

good info, thanks.
TX fees tend to be volatile, though, but maybe you are on to something...or not.
I fully expected a double-hump bull season, but projected first stop to be 70-85K.
If it is 65K instead, then the subsequent "small bear" (before the resumption of the bull in late summer/early fall) should be less punishing.
We shall see. I am not buying or selling here.

[Biodom]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

I'm just saying it's fucking soft, that's a fact. I don't cry, I just make observation. I am into BTC since early 2015 (200$ each) and never sold any of them since.

I know you like to repeat we made new ATHs and blabla. Yes true, but I don't really consider this as It is ATH +1-5%. It is more like a "sideway ATH". Still far from a real move UP, with a real new UP leg.

Yes, we are currently below Feb 2021 high, so is is "f-g soft", no question about it. 65 was what they call "nominal high".

[ivomm]

@sebdebandt
This isn't the cycle top.
#bitcoin  has been trading within 20% of ATH for 51 days.
That's not what a top looks like.
Zoom out.

https://twitter.com/sebdebandt/status/1384836322758742019?s=21

Speaking of past cycles, there is something interesting I've noticed in the present bull run which resembles the 2017's bull run. We can divide 2016-2017 bull run in two parts. The first is from May 2016 to May 2017. The price increased around 600% from the average price 500$ to 3000$. At the same time 3000$ is a 300% increase from the previous ATH 1000$. Then we had 2 months sideways action in the range 10-20% below the 3K ATH. And from August 2017 to December 2017 the price increased 600-700%. And now we have exactly the same situation as in the Summer of 2017 - 600% from the base of 10K in May 2020 and 300% from the last ATH of 20K. We have already 1-2 months of sidewasy action, so it remains to be seen if the next 6 months will repeat the 2017 pattern of 600-700%. Starting from 60K that would be a top between 360K and 420K.  I can live with that  I mean, literally  And this time I really doubt we will see a 85% bottom from the last ATH. IMO it will be more like 35-55%-ish. 

[somac.]

@sebdebandt
This isn't the cycle top.
#bitcoin  has been trading within 20% of ATH for 51 days.
That's not what a top looks like.
Zoom out.

https://twitter.com/sebdebandt/status/1384836322758742019?s=21

Speaking of past cycles, there is something interesting I've noticed in the present bull run which resembles the 2017's bull run. We can divide 2016-2017 bull run in two parts. The first is from May 2016 to May 2017. The price increased around 600% from the average price 500$ to 3000$. At the same time 3000$ is a 300% increase from the previous ATH 1000$. Then we had 2 months sideways action in the range 10-20% below the 3K ATH. And from August 2017 to December 2017 the price increased 600-700%. And now we have exactly the same situation as in the Summer of 2017 - 600% from the base of 10K in May 2020 and 300% from the last ATH of 20K. We have already 1-2 months of sidewasy action, so it remains to be seen if the next 6 months will repeat the 2017 pattern of 600-700%. Starting from 60K that would be a top between 360K and 420K.  I can live with that  I mean, literally  And this time I really doubt we will see a 85% bottom from the last ATH. IMO it will be more like 35-55%-ish. 

Yes, that would do nicely.   

[_javi_]

Transaction fees are crazy as pointed out above.  
Maybe we are heading for a dip first? Not wanting that but just being realistic.

good info, thanks.
TX fees tend to be volatile, though, but maybe you are on to something...or not.
I fully expected a double-hump bull season, but projected first stop to be 70-85K.
If it is 65K instead, then the subsequent "small bear" (before the resumption of the bull in late summer/early fall) should be less punishing.
We shall see. I am not buying or selling here.

I had to pay a 2700usd order at Newegg (0.05 BTC thru Bitpay) as my daughter needs a new laptop for her online "classes" (and daddy wants it to be an rtx3060 one  )

At checkout, i was asked for 22 usd from Coinomi wallet for a 'normal' fee tx. 

(I'm concerned about the payment options presented by Bitpay when Coinomi wallet is selected: BTC... Bcash and Doge  )

[strawbs]

@_javi_

I only just noticed your Manic Miner pic - damn, that brings back memories! We used to play that for hours and hours on end on our ZX Spectrum when I was a kid. The Kempston joystick used to take a hammering  That, and Sabre Wolf are the ones I remember most. Happy carefree days.

[JayJuanGee]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

I'm just saying it's fucking soft, that's a fact. I don't cry, I just make observation. I am into BTC since early 2015 (200$ each) and never sold any of them since.

Whether you are crying or not, you are still complaining about normal price movements, including that we are in a very decent place, and some of the facts you recognized and some I already highlighted in my earlier post.

I know you like to repeat we made new ATHs and blabla. Yes true, but I don't really consider this as It is ATH +1-5%. It is more like a "sideway ATH". Still far from a real move UP, with a real new UP leg.

You are not really saying anything to complain about except that you wished that the price would go up more with less sideways along the way.  and fact of the matter still seems to be that we have had ongoing UPpity with hardly any corrections, and a lot of hovering in the top of the range - which we are still on the border of the top of the range. 

Sure the extreme of the correction was down 20% (to $51,541) from the current $64,895 top from April 14, but we are not even hovering in the bottom of the correction but instead at around $54k (~17%) to $57k (~12%).

Like I already mentioned, nothing to be whining about (even though you do not want to label your remarks as whining), and even to attempt to give way more benefit of the doubt to your "concerns" than they deserve, there is hardly nothing even to see here in terms of depth of correction nor in terms of how long it has been going on because the fact of the matter continues to persist that we have had so much floating at, or near the top (aka "winning") in this particular cycle that several times, I have already proclaimed that these kinds of ongoing and persistent floating at the top of the range does not exist in bitcoin, but it continues to happen despite my ongoing assertions that it does not happen - which also seems to be quite bullish from my perspective, whether it continues to happen or not... and sure it could be the end of the cycle at any time, or we could end up having a BIG ass 50% or more correction (that would be around $32,450), but it seems that in our current ongoingly floating at the top of the range, it is seeming quite more likely that pressures (factual happenings rather than what people are saying) are UP rather than down (even though nothing is guaranteed).

You can consider the facts in front of you in any way that you like including not complaining, complaining or having concerns... blah blah blah.., and surely, I am quite likely to continue to characterize the expressing concerns (aka whining) about small price moves for what they are - even though you are trying to bring some level of legitimacy to what surely appears to be your ongoing inclinations to whine about nothing burgers (or do we call them ant moves - not that a $10k correction in 12 hours or a $8k correction in 30 minutes is anything to be sneezing at - but that is merely the dramatic way BTC prices sometimes move in the short term in order to try to scare some peeps into selling, buying less or whining about it.. hahahahaha)