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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26381202 times)
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June 22, 2021, 07:23:33 PM

....... if I was a nocoiner and wanted to get in I'd be loving this dip.

Seems like nocoiners are uncomfortable with dips like this...

They should be able to look at the charts and figure out not to be scared.

In fact that is how it was for me in 2013 after the 266 highs.

I spent 2 full days researching Bitcoin during that rip higher and I came away convinced of its awesomeness. I opened a bitstamp account and waited for the bubble to pop. Which it did a few days later. Got my first coin under 100 and was not scared at all in buying it. There would be many out there in that situation right now, and they deserve their future gains.

Maybe we should clone you, somac?  The non-scared version of a nocoiner.. kind of like what a nocoiner should aspire to be.

I am getting scared just thinking about it.


a bunch of somac's in the thread.  Anybody else scared of that?


And in a decades time my immediate response when someone says I was lucky, will be to punch them in the face.

That's not nice.  Hopefully, you will be able to become more comfortable with ur own lil selfie.

This shit ain't easy, but it does pay off.

yep... when whining almost the whole time, it does make the shit less easy.  Or at least I would imagine that to be the case.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Anybody selling?

I was feeling confident 30k would hold, but had a stop-limit order which went through selling some BTC when we went below 30k. The reason for placing the order a couple of days ago was so I could get some sleep and USDT to BTFD if the 30k barrier was broken, feels like a dumb plan in hindsight, not sure yet. Probably a bad idea to admit in here, but it's the truth.

Yeah.. does not seem to be a good idea to admit it here... I remember one time in November 2015 I had been following my new system of selling on the way up and buying on the way down, and when the BTC price went shooting up from $250 to $500 in what seemed to had been a pretty short period of time, I cancelled a lot of my sell orders and then I used a pretty large amount of my extra fiat stash that I had been building up for several months to buy at about $500, which was the top of that cycle, and when the BTC price dipped back down to $300, I was wondering why the hell I did not have any money to buy more BTC... and it took about 6 months for the BTC price to get back above $500 - and I probably did not admit that I did that for quite a lot longer than after the BTC price went back above $500.. perhaps a year later.. what dummies we can be some times.

Furthermore. we can be a bunch of meanies too, and use everything you say (especially the less than favorable stuff) against you, when the opportunity comes (for a teachable moment.. or a I told you so.. )..

By the way: if a hodler sells on the way up, it should NOT be that BIG of a deal if that hodler does not buy back, so long as the hodler was o.k. with the amount sold.. hopefully not the whole stash.. for sure.. but just a fraction of the stash..

But if a wannabe hodler sells on the way down (which is what your stop loss did).. then the HODLer wannabe could end up being kind of fucked into a scenario that the BTC price has got to go down below the part that it already had gone down when HODLer had SODLed rather than HODLed.. ..

Sure of course, you see that now, and of course, the bottom is NOT necessarily "in" even though it could actually be "in".. really still seems a wee bit difficult to know, and not really seeming as solid as the mindrust situation.. even though when we are going through the dippenings, they all kind of feel as if they are going to dip forever, but at some point they stop dippening.. and hopefully the amount SODLed was not too much.. yet I know that sometimes when I make a mistake.. the mistake can kind of grate upon me for a decent amount of time..and then usually I will figure out some kind of ways to structure my BTC orders to make up for that mistake.. or to attempt to move on from the mistake.. maybe not completely make up for it, but partially make up for it.. and maybe try to learn some kind of lesson from the mistake, too.. if possible..
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June 22, 2021, 07:34:33 PM

So where is the spring meant to get to with all that wyckoff bullshit?

Well, the price tanked exactly below $30k.


https://twitter.com/giordiedvn/status/1406908628989190148



https://twitter.com/mikevechain/status/1407349912656875525?s=21

What if …. A TA is actually right…..??

I don't care if this was scaled a little to fit... it's gruesomely accurate.
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June 22, 2021, 07:35:46 PM

~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?



Nice 1 . Thanks

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... Smiley whee.

what you guys think about this style? Grin



I'm lovin' it!
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June 22, 2021, 07:38:06 PM

In other words, traders and fudsters are trying to persuade us that the fair market cap of Bitcoin is equal to eth market cap a month ago?!? Really?!? Even if 30K is breached for some time, so what? Moar buying of course!

Oh gawd... don't remind me of that crap..

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Both buying and selling ……  Grin

Yeah, smart people buy, idiots sell. The great digital wealth transfer at play.

hey...

That's not nice.

Does remind me, though.. of some of my own words....

"You are not wanting to be part of the greatest transfer of wealth in history?"

Somewhat difficult to really and truly feel that transfer from the status quo to my lil selfie at the current moment.. but surely it should be feeling MOAR better somewhere down the road...

wen feel MOAR better?

This drop might be like the one from 6k to 3k in 2018. Reckon it won't get any lower than 20k though and that will be the end of the drops.

Does not seem the same.. but hey.. I suppose time will tell.

Feels more like the March 2017 dip from $1k to $891, and I remember a kind of cocky guy saying that he sold (and it was on a different forum), and I mentioned that this is not the time to be selling.. you should be buying.  The price never did return to those "sold" levels.. but hey whatever, too soon to know what is going to happen in this particular situation, right?

Happy parity day!

Don't remind the royal we.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

Going up through page parity was much MOAR funzies.. and it happened so quickly, it was almost painless.
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June 22, 2021, 07:47:45 PM

Unpopular opinion: You've missed the 4-digit price.
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June 22, 2021, 08:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 22, 2021, 08:04:13 PM

I grabbed some corn today.

Will get more later.


Don't rub it in, money bags.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[~long story of many trials and tribulations of the good ole days and then a punchline below~]

We are kind of lucky though...

I feel lucky....







punk


Crypto is death comments starting to Pop up everywhere. This time for real?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Did I die and fall into "crypto"

Oh shit.

I thought that I was into bitcoin and sound money and proof of work paradigm shifting amazements...

Go figure?

Weekly RSI dropped below 40, same happend in 2015, 2018 and last year during Covid crash, price went up after.

Ultimate buying opportunity here.



Oh?

Good thing that I did not SODL nuttin.

 Wink

Unpopular opinion: You've missed the 4-digit price.

How would that be "unpopular"?

Folks are going to be pretty damned lucky to be able to buy below $25k.. even if there might be a wee bit of pep in the steps of peeps filled with hopium.. but if they failed and refused to buy under $43k.. all the way in these here parts because they have been waiting for sub $25k, they may well never get such opportunities.. and sheeeiiittt. we have been in these hare parts for a little over a month..

In other words, if there are peeps who have not bought any corn in the past month, then they might as well HFSP... what can be done about those peeps?

How much longer do they have for coins below $43k?  I am not sure.... but seems like a good time to make at least some level of purchase of lil fiend rather than stacking fiat.

I dont know about you guys but I feel like it's all over 2013 again. A feeling of capitulation where I said fuck you bears I chose to go down with the ship instead of selling now. We might go to low 20s but I take out all my cryptos from exchanges now. Will not sell anything. And if I have to wait another 4 years, so it might be.

Fair enough.

Crypto is death comments starting to Pop up everywhere. This time for real?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


I take out all my cryptos from exchanges now. Will not sell anything.
I spent too much money on Doge (while sleeping) Cheesy I had sold some, bought back, sold again, and turned a profit in euro. I set buy backs orders all the way back to a fraction of a cent, the higher ones triggered. So I now have more Doge than I started this adventure with, and still euros left. I'll see later whether or not buying back was a good call, but ending up with more than I started with doesn't feel like an absolute loss.
I kinda hope Doge will go all the way down, then I'll be ready 4 years from now when it hypes again.

Are you purposefully trying to irritate peeps here?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Talking about that piece of shit - and seemingly attack vector made out of games  - and whatever you may have done with it is a big


so fucking what


 Shocked Shocked Shocked
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June 22, 2021, 08:05:44 PM

~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?



Nice 1 . Thanks

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... Smiley whee.

what you guys think about this style? Grin



Brillant  Grin
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June 22, 2021, 08:10:20 PM
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An interesting thought...

We often think of bitxcoin finding it's price by realizing the answer to this equasion:

y/21,000,000

Where y = everything in the world.

This is a good thought... but I was just thinking about part of the reason that is somewhat over-simple.

y/(21,000,000-x)

Where x = the coins in FIRM  hands and y=what is currently for sale.

We are really only able to price what is being currently valued, but the pool of AVAILABLE bitcoin is MUCH less than 21mm.  Of course there are all of Satoshi's coins, which may be out of the game.  Then there are all the lost coins, and THEN there are to coins that are not going to move very easily at all, like mine.  It is this last bit that becomes interesting because it is dynamic.

I am not selling.  I might trade some of my bitcoin for a little land to retire on some day.  But that's going to be a while off.  Obviously the price of Bitcoin currently has something to do with this.  For every holder there is a price where he or she will say "You know... it is now worth it for me to let go of x of my coins so I can have y.

Those variables are a constantly moving target both because of the time preference of the holder as well as the items for sale. 

And I would suggest that the second equation takes us to ultimately higher number than the first.

We are seeing bitcoin become a value CONDUIT as opposed to a value Container.  This is a VERY interesting distinction. Today US dollars can be sent all over the world using the lightning network.  If I send $100 from A -> B using the lightning network does it matter how many BTC that transaction sends?  It could be .000001 BTC, or 10 BTC and it does not matter.

BUT.  The pipe has to be big enough to send ALL the transactions that need to be sent at any one time.  BUT it also has to take into consideration the fact that much of the existing BTC is simply NOT AVAILABLE. That means instead of bitcoin being equal to 1/21000000 of everything, instead the AVAILABLE float is equal to all the of things currently for sale -- at least.

I am still working on this, but i feel like this train of thought goes somewhere... maybe just in circles? Wink 
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June 22, 2021, 08:49:14 PM

Are we all wearing McDonalds hats with flags now?
Can I have mine with Scanian flags please?

 Last one for a bit.  I promised my daughter a visit to the grandparent's place Smiley





Thank you!
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June 22, 2021, 08:54:13 PM

Selling now would be for the purpose of either manipulation or panic.
It always feels like I'm being pulled 2 ways:
1. They want me to sell when it drops!
2. They want me to get hope again when it goes up a bit!
So I do what I always do: I'm not buying, I'm not selling. Just making sure I can afford to pay my taxes next year Smiley

I suppose that is one way to deal with the situation, especially if you feel that you have accumulated enough BTC.


I personally believe that one of the most guaranteed aspects of BTC is volatility, so if you can establish ways to deal with that volatility without getting bothered then it is all good.... One of the strictest ways are ongoing DCA buying and buying on dips.. one of the problems with the buying on dips portion is to sufficiently measure yourself so that you never run out of fiat.. sometimes easier said than done, especially during seemingly extreme dippening times.

I dont know about you guys but I feel like it's all over 2013 again. A feeling of capitulation where I said fuck you bears I chose to go down with the ship instead of selling now. We might go to low 20s but I take out all my cryptos from exchanges now. Will not sell anything. And if I have to wait another 4 years, so it might be.


This is 2021

2013 is history

This Time is different  Roll Eyes
'
'Sure, the BTC price does not perform exactly the same, but there are some potential similarities to 2013  - especially because 2013 had two price peaks with a higher one the second time around.. but 2013 also had a 100x overall return, which surely seems to be a bit out of range for this time around... gosh.. $4,200 x 100.. = $420,000... Oh?  100x is not totally out of the question.. so sure.. maybe 2013 like scenario could be within reach.. I mean $420k is merely slightly below gold's market cap, and many of us already realize that bitcoin is in the territory of 100x to 1,000x better than gold, just a matter of time to get to that 100x to 1,000x price location... so stopping around 1x might not be unreasonable, even for this particular cycle with still is seemingly early in the whole working out the wrinkles of ongoing and early stages of bitcoin adoption.

 And one scenario I thought about looks just like this a faster bull/bear pattern that shakes even the most ironballs bulls out of the boat.

For sure that would be an interesting concept to attempt to shake the most iron of bulls, yet I doubt that any of us who have been through at least one previous cycle is going to be shaken very easily absent sub $10k prices, and how the fuck is that going to happen?  Does anyone really believe that even if fuck twat governments and banks threw all their phoney money at BTC and also engaged in bullshit fractional reserves that they would achieve sub $10k?  I suppose it is possible, but just seems like a whole hell of a lot of resources thrown at something that would end up blowing up on them and then they really lose any kind of control that they might have had over the matter.. .. who knows?

I think that a better target would be attempting to go after folks like Michael Saylor or Saylor look-a-likes.  Not too likely that they are shaking Saylor, either absent both getting the BTC price below $10k and being able to keep the BTC price below $10k for a long time.. a year or longer.. just does not seem very easy to accomplish.

Or maybe it's just dead.  Could be that too.

Yes.. reverse psychology you are playing..

I know that you do not even believe that.  I am going to slap you... hahahaha


I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house.  That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

That is very funny... I am presuming that this "friend" is a nocoiner?  Sometimes friends might end up "knowing too much", and probably you deserved a certain level of chiding anyhow because you likely had been "rubbing in" your friend's ongoing lack of taking you (or your BTC investment) seriously.  So here's his opportunity to get back at you, no?

I mean aren't you suffering cAPSLOCK?  You are only around 3x UP from September and you could have been 6.5x up.. NOT to mention that your costs are likely way the hell below $10k anyhow, so we are just considering what has happened to your portfolio since September until now, and gosh it hardly seems like any kind of suffering situation.. except for someone wanting to chide about ONLY being up 3x from September rather than 6.5x, and I suppose that the dweeb friend also is suggesting that you "better sell now" while you are still up.. and trying to knock some common sense into you (that is the common sense of a nocoiner, which is hardly common sense when we really consider the matter). 

Sold nothing but I logged into Kraken & thought about it  Grin

Just hope it stops soon man.

For sure... it is going to stop, soon.tm

I was close to selling the BTC I have on Kraken, roughly 2.5% of my stash.
Glad I didn’t, it was the exact bottom (local bottom, whatever).

Hahahhaha

It would have not exactly been a mindrust because it is a small portion rather than all of it.. and sure mindrust did buy back around 10% (if we believe his story),.. but jeez, I am seeing that based on your posts, you do need to shave a bit more off.. so not sure about what to say... especially since I had been doing the opposite of you which is buying.. .. and yeah, I don't want to buy, either because I don't want the price to go down and to continue to go down but buying does seem like the best thing to do.. I mean until the fiat runs out.. ..

On the other hand, I think that if I had failed to sell enough BTC on the way up in order to be able to be in a situation in which I am able to buy, I would just HODL until the cash comes in.. but gosh.. who can really say?  There are no guarantees that we might not test lows at this time, even though the most dominant theory is that we are still in a bull market..

but when push comes to shove, theories do not help a whole hell of a lot because they are attached to probability rather than certainty... and of course, we need to plug our own circumstances into how we weigh the theories.. so there are several components... and gosh.. what's the BIG deal anyhow LFC.. you already have the RR.. so that could be a kind of temporary fix.. even though... you are having regrets about not being more aggressive in your selling a few months ago.. .... and that is a lot of what each of us have to contend with in terms of having UP momentum and realizing that things can turn sour.. and that we could end up in a kind of seemingly shitty situation that is much outside of what had been expected.. that is the preparing for both up and down.. and various extremes of each.
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June 22, 2021, 08:56:13 PM

~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?



Nice 1 . Thanks

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... Smiley whee.

what you guys think about this style? Grin



Ba da ba ba ba, I'm loving it.
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June 22, 2021, 09:01:34 PM


Explanation
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June 22, 2021, 09:04:05 PM

This day shall be remembered as the end of the so called bear market May-June 2021. 30K is a tough nut for the bears to crack  Grin Grin Grin

You could actually be correct......



this time.





One thing that helps about staying consistent is that sooner or later, you are going to be correct.

#nohomo


~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?




I am keeping the hat of my own lil selfie


#nohomo

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June 22, 2021, 09:10:32 PM
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I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house.  That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

That is very funny... I am presuming that this "friend" is a nocoiner?  Sometimes friends might end up "knowing too much", and probably you deserved a certain level of chiding anyhow because you likely had been "rubbing in" your friend's ongoing lack of taking you (or your BTC investment) seriously.  So here's his opportunity to get back at you, no?

I mean aren't you suffering cAPSLOCK?  You are only around 3x UP from September and you could have been 6.5x up.. NOT to mention that your costs are likely way the hell below $10k anyhow, so we are just considering what has happened to your portfolio since September until now, and gosh it hardly seems like any kind of suffering situation.. except for someone wanting to chide about ONLY being up 3x from September rather than 6.5x, and I suppose that the dweeb friend also is suggesting that you "better sell now" while you are still up.. and trying to knock some common sense into you (that is the common sense of a nocoiner, which is hardly common sense when we really consider the matter). 



Of course I suffer a little during these times.  Even though I have learned to avoid as much of the pain as possible and have grown a bit more spine than I had way back when I also have more to lose now than ever.  If you had told me I would ever been in a position to lose or gain what I can lose or gain in a single day I would have been astonished.  But I would also have been delighted.

A problem I would like to have, as I say.

But that does not change the fact that all of our "numbers" have been up 2x what they currently are, and that is painful.

My friend will never reveal to me whether he has bought Bitcoin or not, though I told him about it at sub 4 digit prices.  He did buy some ripple and Bcash I know that... *sigh*.  I am hoping he has bought a little Bitcoin too.  But I think he has done OK in the stock market.  He is just frustrated that he thinks I have enough to retire and that not having done so means I am greedy.

For me the equation is simple.  The amount I have to gain by putting off retirement is enough to make it an easy choice to be able to still work, and even throw the occasional couple K at Bitcoin on days like today.  I bought the last time we were near 30, and today. Actually today I got it at 29980. HA!

I am a simple man, who leads a simple life.  My descendants will have wealth they cannot believe if I am right about this bitcoin thing...  I often wonder if that is a good thing...
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June 22, 2021, 09:13:11 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (2)




~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?




I am keeping the hat of my own lil selfie


#nohomo

 Tongue Tongue Tongue

I am all the HATS  Cool
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There is news and there is noise, be on the right side of reading and paying attention

close to HODLSLEEP
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Explanation
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June 22, 2021, 10:23:43 PM

a mid afternoon report

#dyor

1h

#stronghands
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