Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

not to bitch about a 'free' graph, but, sir, there are two things  (price and volume) smashed into each other and obscuring the overall view...sorry.

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[Toxic2040]

not to bitch about a 'free' graph, but, sir, there are two things  (price and volume) smashed into each other and obscuring the overall view...sorry.

squeaky wheel gets grease

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Sold nothing but I logged into Kraken & thought about it  

Just hope it stops soon man.

For sure... it is going to stop, soon.^tm

I was close to selling the BTC I have on Kraken, roughly 2.5% of my stash.
Glad I didn’t, it was the exact bottom (local bottom, whatever).

Every time I wanted to sell before and did sell, it turned out to be a wrong, emotional decision.

Yes!!!!

Don't be doing that Biodom.  I have been trying to edumacating uie-pooie.

The way I fight the urge to sell these days is by telling myself: "you want to sell, maybe it is an indication that you should buy or at least hold"...it worked out so far.

You can also shave a wee bit off as the price goes up in order that you do not feel so overinvested... just in case the price does go down.

Anyhow you do tend to come off as quite of a bit of a walking contradiction too.. because you were whining and proclaiming impending DOWN, and now when you finally get some DOWN, you act like you don't know what to do.

Go figure?

That said, having coins on exchange gives an additional impetus to sell..since they are right there, easy to dispose of, hence i don't keep any bitcoin on exchanges with the exception of some dust.

Fair enough.

If you have tendencies to get emotional, then you should not be tempting ur lil selfie.

Just like if you have an inability to stop eating chocolate (or marshmallows) when they are in your grandma's house, then maybe it is better to let grandma know not to buy those things.

My bank account savings - $200(I am broke)
But deep inside the devil inside me who is holding Bitcoin is happy.

You little devil.

Are we all wearing McDonalds hats with flags now?
Can I have mine with Scanian flags please?

You guys are spoiled brats,

and grandpa homer is way too nice.

You know Raul Pal is still on that horse as of today...

I hate to say it because he seems like a decent chap, but i will not cry if he gets wrecked.

He's a dweeb.. or retarded.

Any serious financial person should not be pumping (or promoting) that smoke and mirrors scam facilitating bullshit.

In udder words, Raul Pal deserves to get wrecked.. at least for his shitcoin (ethereum et al.) holdings/promotion..

[El duderino_]

When #NutS*ckPrices

#few

[Biodom]

Can someone apart from me tell that obnoxious know-it-all bot 'girlfriend' to stop being so naggy....just about everybody and pretty much everything?
The informational content from that direction is minimal.

[JayJuanGee]

A good reminder on a few trading rules:

Don’t buy new lows.

Don’t short new highs.

Always scale in and out of positions.

Set stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.

Always look for new ideas.

Admit when you’re wrong and move on

Though why not buying lows, those are never wrong imo, I love buying cheap corn...

Not buying lows because there could be lower (or much lower) lows.
It always, always pays to buy into rising, NOT declining market.
How many people here were buying at small dips from 60K (55,50,48, 42, etc)?
My 24 year market experience tells me that and I have scars to show for it...way back when always buying into declines, hoping for bargains..nope, it does not work this way.
You could be bailed out by something like bitcoin cycles, but it is a no-no, typically.

Wrrrrroooooonnnnnggggg.    




Buy on the way down, sell on the way up (of course, not too much selling on the way up because it is mostly insurance), and if you are not sure about how to do it, modify the size.. for example, don't be selling too much on the way up, and careful to be able to stagger out your buys on the way down so that you never run out of cash, even if the dips are extreme.  Works pretty damned great to offset volatility if you structure the matter correctly..and you are not fucking around trying to time the market and guess if the BTC price is going up down or sideways.. because if you structure your matters correctly, you largely give no shits and you lessen the likelihood of becoming emotional about the price direction matter...

In udder words, there is a quite a bit of sanity that comes with having a system that you do not have to attempt to guess the direction of corn prices in the short term and then start pumping out nonsense talking-points because you want the BTC price to go in one direction or another.

I personally will admit that I am biased about BTC's upside and surely long term upside that has played out way more than generously, but surely I figure why the fuck would anyone want to invest into anything that s/he did not believe in the long term bullishness of such asset, even if there may well be a decent amount of short-term volatility in that same asset...

In any event one of the matters that is almost guaranteed in bitcoin is its ongoing volatility - not even sure about how much price movement in one direction or another in the short term or how long it is going to stay there, and also at the same time there seems to be quite a few tendencies to overshoot expectations, too... while at the same time continuing to retain long-term bullish fundamentals that can be played to your advantage as long as you are largely erring on the side of ongoingly stacking sats and attempting to accumulate so that you are not attempting to risk too much BTC and perhaps even able to somewhat project how many BTC that you should be able to have at various upside projected price points - even if you won't be able to know when it will get to those upside price points.. and surely not guaranteed to get to the upside price points either, but still you should be able to project out to anticipate a plan for what to do for various UPpity price points.  

[eXPHorizon]

[JayJuanGee]

Can someone apart from me tell that obnoxious know-it-all bot 'girlfriend' to stop being so naggy....just about everybody and pretty much everything?
The informational content from that direction is minimal.

I got this one.

Hold my beer.


Stop being soooooo naggy, girlfriend!!!!!


Let me know if it did not work.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

#dyor

4h


D

#stronghands

[Sayeds56]

Selling now would be for the purpose of either manipulation or panic.

It always feels like I'm being pulled 2 ways:
1. They want me to sell when it drops!
2. They want me to get hope again when it goes up a bit!
So I do what I always do: I'm not buying, I'm not selling. Just making sure I can afford to pay my taxes next year

I suppose that is one way to deal with the situation, especially if you feel that you have accumulated enough BTC.


I personally believe that one of the most guaranteed aspects of BTC is volatility, so if you can establish ways to deal with that volatility without getting bothered then it is all good.... One of the strictest ways are ongoing DCA buying and buying on dips.. one of the problems with the buying on dips portion is to sufficiently measure yourself so that you never run out of fiat.. sometimes easier said than done, especially during seemingly extreme dippening times.

I dont know about you guys but I feel like it's all over 2013 again. A feeling of capitulation where I said fuck you bears I chose to go down with the ship instead of selling now. We might go to low 20s but I take out all my cryptos from exchanges now. Will not sell anything. And if I have to wait another 4 years, so it might be.

This is 2021

2013 is history

This Time is different  

'
'Sure, the BTC price does not perform exactly the same, but there are some potential similarities to 2013  - especially because 2013 had two price peaks with a higher one the second time around.. but 2013 also had a 100x overall return, which surely seems to be a bit out of range for this time around... gosh.. $4,200 x 100.. = $420,000... Oh?  100x is not totally out of the question.. so sure.. maybe 2013 like scenario could be within reach.. I mean $420k is merely slightly below gold's market cap, and many of us already realize that bitcoin is in the territory of 100x to 1,000x better than gold, just a matter of time to get to that 100x to 1,000x price location... so stopping around 1x might not be unreasonable, even for this particular cycle with still is seemingly early in the whole working out the wrinkles of ongoing and early stages of bitcoin adoption.

And one scenario I thought about looks just like this a faster bull/bear pattern that shakes even the most ironballs bulls out of the boat.

For sure that would be an interesting concept to attempt to shake the most iron of bulls, yet I doubt that any of us who have been through at least one previous cycle is going to be shaken very easily absent sub $10k prices, and how the fuck is that going to happen?  Does anyone really believe that even if fuck twat governments and banks threw all their phoney money at BTC and also engaged in bullshit fractional reserves that they would achieve sub $10k?  I suppose it is possible, but just seems like a whole hell of a lot of resources thrown at something that would end up blowing up on them and then they really lose any kind of control that they might have had over the matter.. .. who knows?

I think that a better target would be attempting to go after folks like Michael Saylor or Saylor look-a-likes.  Not too likely that they are shaking Saylor, either absent both getting the BTC price below $10k and being able to keep the BTC price below $10k for a long time.. a year or longer.. just does not seem very easy to accomplish.

Or maybe it's just dead.  Could be that too.

Yes.. reverse psychology you are playing..

I know that you do not even believe that.  I am going to slap you... hahahaha

I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house.  That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

That is very funny... I am presuming that this "friend" is a nocoiner?  Sometimes friends might end up "knowing too much", and probably you deserved a certain level of chiding anyhow because you likely had been "rubbing in" your friend's ongoing lack of taking you (or your BTC investment) seriously.  So here's his opportunity to get back at you, no?

I mean aren't you suffering cAPSLOCK?  You are only around 3x UP from September and you could have been 6.5x up.. NOT to mention that your costs are likely way the hell below $10k anyhow, so we are just considering what has happened to your portfolio since September until now, and gosh it hardly seems like any kind of suffering situation.. except for someone wanting to chide about ONLY being up 3x from September rather than 6.5x, and I suppose that the dweeb friend also is suggesting that you "better sell now" while you are still up.. and trying to knock some common sense into you (that is the common sense of a nocoiner, which is hardly common sense when we really consider the matter).  

Sold nothing but I logged into Kraken & thought about it  

Just hope it stops soon man.

For sure... it is going to stop, soon.^tm

I was close to selling the BTC I have on Kraken, roughly 2.5% of my stash.
Glad I didn’t, it was the exact bottom (local bottom, whatever).

Hahahhaha

It would have not exactly been a mindrust because it is a small portion rather than all of it.. and sure mindrust did buy back around 10% (if we believe his story),.. but jeez, I am seeing that based on your posts, you do need to shave a bit more off.. so not sure about what to say... especially since I had been doing the opposite of you which is buying.. .. and yeah, I don't want to buy, either because I don't want the price to go down and to continue to go down but buying does seem like the best thing to do.. I mean until the fiat runs out.. ..

On the other hand, I think that if I had failed to sell enough BTC on the way up in order to be able to be in a situation in which I am able to buy, I would just HODL until the cash comes in.. but gosh.. who can really say?  There are no guarantees that we might not test lows at this time, even though the most dominant theory is that we are still in a bull market..

but when push comes to shove, theories do not help a whole hell of a lot because they are attached to probability rather than certainty... and of course, we need to plug our own circumstances into how we weigh the theories.. so there are several components... and gosh.. what's the BIG deal anyhow LFC.. you already have the RR.. so that could be a kind of temporary fix.. even though... you are having regrets about not being more aggressive in your selling a few months ago.. .... and that is a lot of what each of us have to contend with in terms of having UP momentum and realizing that things can turn sour.. and that we could end up in a kind of seemingly shitty situation that is much outside of what had been expected.. that is the preparing for both up and down.. and various extremes of each.

Happy to see green candle on day chart. We are now above pivot point and next target is 33226. BTC should stay above 33K to consolidate gains it had yesterday after pull back from 28K.

[bitcoinPsycho]

40K in one hour

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

If you want to make money, listen to this..it works better:

https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/common-and-deadly-investing-mistakes-buys-on-the-way-down/

https://financialpost.com/investing/5-reasons-why-its-better-to-average-up

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1407403983023460354?s=20

Hahahahaha

Willy woo is both a smart guy and has great presentation of the subject matter, but remember he had a bet that was likely lost about a month ago, which was something like :  "the BTC price will not go below $45k this calendar year"  - something like that.

No problem really because if you are a public figure who draws squiggly predictive power lines about the BTC price, ultimately there's going to be a bet in there.  I would imagine him to be a pretty gracious loser.

I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house.  That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

That is very funny... I am presuming that this "friend" is a nocoiner?  Sometimes friends might end up "knowing too much", and probably you deserved a certain level of chiding anyhow because you likely had been "rubbing in" your friend's ongoing lack of taking you (or your BTC investment) seriously.  So here's his opportunity to get back at you, no?

I mean aren't you suffering cAPSLOCK?  You are only around 3x UP from September and you could have been 6.5x up.. NOT to mention that your costs are likely way the hell below $10k anyhow, so we are just considering what has happened to your portfolio since September until now, and gosh it hardly seems like any kind of suffering situation.. except for someone wanting to chide about ONLY being up 3x from September rather than 6.5x, and I suppose that the dweeb friend also is suggesting that you "better sell now" while you are still up.. and trying to knock some common sense into you (that is the common sense of a nocoiner, which is hardly common sense when we really consider the matter). 

Of course I suffer a little during these times.  Even though I have learned to avoid as much of the pain as possible and have grown a bit more spine than I had way back when I also have more to lose now than ever.  If you had told me I would ever been in a position to lose or gain what I can lose or gain in a single day I would have been astonished.  But I would also have been delighted.

A problem I would like to have, as I say.

But that does not change the fact that all of our "numbers" have been up 2x what they currently are, and that is painful.

My friend will never reveal to me whether he has bought Bitcoin or not, though I told him about it at sub 4 digit prices.  He did buy some ripple and Bcash I know that... *sigh*.  I am hoping he has bought a little Bitcoin too.  But I think he has done OK in the stock market.  He is just frustrated that he thinks I have enough to retire and that not having done so means I am greedy.

For me the equation is simple.  The amount I have to gain by putting off retirement is enough to make it an easy choice to be able to still work, and even throw the occasional couple K at Bitcoin on days like today.  I bought the last time we were near 30, and today. Actually today I got it at 29980. HA!

I am a simple man, who leads a simple life.  My descendants will have wealth they cannot believe if I am right about this bitcoin thing...  I often wonder if that is a good thing...

Well am often amazed in terms of how the value magnifies upon itself (also known as compounding), so there are a lot of traditional financial folks (warren buffet types) who said that they were having some troubles wrapping their head around some aspects of bitcoin because they like to be able to earn dividends and a lot of bullshit like that..   but sometimes the value of the corn is appreciating so god damned fast that you may well not even be able to spend it as fast as it grows - absent some kind of major change in your consumption style.

One thing about your current cashflow and taking that fuck you step is for sure having the assurance that you have enough, so yeah, maybe there does come a point where you do have enough.. but you are so god damned stubborn about NOT selling your bitcoin that you end up having to wait another cycle when you surely already had enough to act now or close to now.

Of course, no one is going to be able to conclude the specifics, except for you, including that you have to weigh both financial considerations and psychological comfort levels in terms of projecting out your cashflow, including accounting for the worser case scenarios in bitcoin.  I, personally, believe that it is way easier to accomplish by balancing between cash and bitcoin, but sure other people believe that they can use properties or  even annuities to be able to lock in a kind of certain cashflow for the rest of their lives. 

I am not opposed to any of the varying ways of considering the matter... because of course, you should be able to add up the varying amounts, and come to a conclusion.. which also includes knowing that you have a cashflow from a job that would be reduced if you were to pull the fuck you lever.. and then a question if the appreciation (or value of your bitcoin) is sufficiently enough to offset whatever cashflow it is that you would be using.. including that you might have to ensure that you have health insurance coverage or that you cannot draw from certain kinds of funds until you reach a certain age.. and of course, if you are not contributing into such funds, then those funds will be smaller when you reach such age and become eligible for drawing. 

I have a fund that has been shrinking in value because I have not been contributing into it since 2013 - but I had already calculated that there was going to be a reduction in the amount that I was going to be able to receive because of my 2013 decision to stop contributing into the fund.. but at the same time, I see that the shrinking of that fund is seeming to be more than I had anticipated - meaning that the amount that I am going to be able to draw on a regular basis is less and less and less and even showing that I had made some errors in my calculations - but at the same time, it is a good thing that I had been investing into BTC since 2013, and so even though I had considered my BTC investment to be a potential way to supplement my other kinds of income down the road, I had also figured that even if BTC had gone to zero, I would still be able to sufficiently survive on the various sources of income that I already had and some of them that would become available at later dates. 

One surprising aspect of the bitcoin investment is that it seems to be making up for some of the shortfalls that I am now calculating in the various income streams that I had projected out, so yeah, even though I had figured that there might have been some needs to live on a budget in the future, my bitcoin investment has allowed me to be able to live way better now and even building up to my future budget because there is so much surplus in the bitcoin investment.  Many of us who have invested in bitcoin through the years realize based on personal experiences so long as we had erred on the side of maintaining a decent BTC stash and spending from other sources first, then the BTC has outperformed all other assets.. I mean my BTC outperformed all of my other categories of assets combined - even with the to-date 66% correction (down to $28,600) that there seems to be a sufficient bounce back to put us around a 47% correction territories as I type ($34,300).

I guess my point was that I was hoping that bitcoin was going to supplement some potential short comings in my finances in my future so maybe I could perhaps buy something nice here or there at various points or maybe not have to worry about short-falls in cashflow, so maybe I could use the BTC to buy a new car or go on a vacation or some things like that might have been tighter on the budget or to drive a luxury car rather than a standard car. .. but when the BTC value becomes the size of all of the sources of income combined and even now at a kind of 4x more than the size of all the other cashflows combined, then there seems to be some ability to justify shaving some value off, if needed and not worrying about it.. because not ONLY is the value of the BTC enough to serve its purpose it is multiple times excessive from the original purpose that it was contemplated to serve.. and yeah if there are also irresponsibilities where the  prices of everything goes up 2x or 3x from where you were contemplating, that seems to not be a problem, either.

[explorer]

 

   Hope we've all got baskets full of fresh picked corn...

[xhomerx10]

~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?

Nice 1 . Thanks

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... whee.

what you guys think about this style?

 Okay, that is a pretty awesome stylized Bitcoin symbol. 

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[wheel squeaks]

squeaky wheel gets grease

4 sure cannot deny that Biodom has such squeakening properties

40K in one hour

Whoaza!!!!

I want some of that stuff you are smoking.

 

If you want to make money, listen to this..it works better:

https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/common-and-deadly-investing-mistakes-buys-on-the-way-down/

https://financialpost.com/investing/5-reasons-why-its-better-to-average-up

Don't want to make money.

Want to accumulate bitcoin which will make money in the long run because bitcoin is likely to be going up in the long run.

In other words, you biodom have been reading that nonsense, and no wonder you are an emotional reck half the time.  And, the other half of the time, you are you.  Well, you cannot help that part.

I am wondering, have you ever heard of king daddy?

Best to adjust your BTC buying strategies to dee king.. .figure out if you are in an accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage, and adjust your strategy accordingly.

Furthermore adjust your strategies to ur lil selfie including figuring out if you have accumulated enough BTC or if you are still accumulating.  What is your target BTC accumulation goal?

In the early stages, I really am not suggesting any kinds of selling of BTC at all.. just DCA which is blind, buy on dips and lump sum investing.  But once you start to reach your BTC accumulation goal or you exceed your BTC accumulation goals, you may well want to play your BTC hand a bit different by adding some selling of your BTC on the way up.. but only small amounts for insurance purposes on the one hand or not giving a shit if the price never comes back down (so you better be selling small amounts).

Of course, there are some people who have not reached their BTC accumulation goals or exceeded their accumulation goals, so first things gotta come first instead of worrying about making money blah blah blah..

I am no way recommending engaging in selling in order to accumulate more BTC.. which seems to be what you are suggesting Biodom.. not my cup of tea and do not recommend that.. but if you have already over allocated into BTC then you can sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to provide insurance which may result in more BTC on the way down if the BTC price were to go down, but if the BTC price does not go down, then you are more than willing to leave those sold BTC on the table.. so anyhow, the immediate goal should not necessarily be to acquire more BTC through selling.. the acquiring of more BTC when the BTC price goes down (if it does) remains just a side benefit to take advantage of lemons by making lemonade.

I explained my strategy many times and the factors to consider in terms of individually tailoring such strategies.. and I am also letting uie-pooie know that it works very well.. even though uie-poo-ie just want to fight about it on an ongoing basis, so therefore, since we are in a public thread, I am letting dee udder peeps know that buying BTC on the way down and selling on the way up can work really damned well, especially if you figure out a comfortable way to structure what you are doing in order to take out a large amount of the emotion.... don't be selling too much.. and make sure you always have enough fiat to buy on dips.. so you never run out of fiat in case the BTC price dips beyond your expectations. .. then maybe you are left with only HODLing through the matter and just waiting for cash flow to come in or just to wait for the BTC price to get back up to your sell orders which might be quite higher above the current price, especially if you run out of fiat way too soon in a dip.

For example in this dip, a lot of people blew their whole wadd of fiat in the lower $50ks or maybe in the upper $40ks, so when the BTC price dropped below $45k, they had not fiat left for buying.. maybe since we were below $43k for more than a month, there might have been some cashflow that came in for some of those folks to buy some BTC below $43k in the past month.

So sure, you should ONLY be selling if you bought lower.. not talking about leverage here.. so if you run out of money to buy with, then it makes little to no sense to be selling. 

 Of course, if we are considering the matter in terms of you already having accumulated a sufficient quantity of BTC, and not running out of fiat to buy on the way down, then when the BTC price resumes up, a strategy of creating sell orders on the way up is both allowing the setting the price and the amount of what you want to do in advance, and then let the price come to you and don't get worried about if the BTC price is manipulated or pushed in one direction or another or if it stays flat for 3 months with no buy/sell action.. no problem..

Whether buy or sell, when the BTC price comes to you then your orders are executed because you have already decided what you are going to do in advance (and where you had decided to place each order whether on the way up or on the way down)...

You are not trying to guess which way the BTC price is going to go because you should give no shits as long as the BTC price is going UPpity in the long run. 

What better system could there be when we are talking about autonomy, control and getting more and more richie all at the same time, without even having to think about the matter once you place your buy/sell orders?   but you gotta get to BTC accumulation by a combination of DCA, buying on the dip, and lump sum investing.. so I am suggesting that you would not even want to be fucking around with selling BTC on the way up until you first reached or exceeded your BTC accumulation goals.