Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[modrobert]

After reading some tweets this morning, sadly realize the high profile people I added recently who promote Bitcoin (with laser eyes) as a currency for its functionality and features are now whining about dumps and giving questionable trading tips. I guess they are stuck in some crap position making them nervous and not following their own ideals after all.

Going against the Twitter narrative, I might adopt an approach commonly used before the MTGOX crash, when all you see is volatility then go for rebalancing.

The constant-mix rebalancing strategy will outperform all other strategies in oscillating markets. The buy-and-hold rebalancing strategy will outperform in up-trending markets.

Usually what happens by the time I port the rebalancer bots to work with new exchange APIs is that the rate turns flat for ages, so perhaps I'll go manual trading for now until volatility is confirmed.

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[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

After reading some tweets this morning, sadly realize the high profile people I added recently who promote Bitcoin (with laser eyes) as a currency for its functionality and features are now whining about dumps and giving questionable trading tips. I guess they are stuck in some crap position making them nervous and not following their own ideals after all.

Going against the Twitter narrative, I might adopt an approach commonly used before the MTGOX crash, when all you see is volatility then go for rebalancing.

The constant-mix rebalancing strategy will outperform all other strategies in oscillating markets. The buy-and-hold rebalancing strategy will outperform in up-trending markets.

Usually what happens by the time I port the rebalancer bots to work with new exchange APIs is that the rate turns flat for ages, so perhaps I'll go manual trading for now until volatility is confirmed.

This bot is thinking:  "Fuck rebalancing and those theories about blindly rebalancing such a great investment as bitcoin."

You know that some of the professional investors who are investing the funds of other people are forced to rebalance their BTC because they are not allowed to go beyond certain allocations.. whether that is 2% or 5% or some other whimpy number, they are not allowed to let their winners ride.

Individuals can authorize their lil selfies to do whatever they want.  Individuals do not have to follow the same underperforming guidelines of professional investors, and not even that professional investors out perform index funds..  and if individuals want to engage in dumb investing techniques such as rebalancing, then let those individuals sacrifice their lil selfies and limit their little selfies from being one of the beneficiaries of the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever experienced (at least to date)... so yeah.. cut off your nose off, despite your face.. and that will have been your choice regarding how to play out your bitcoin investment..

If I had been forced to rebalance my BTC, I would be poor as fuck right now.... or at least I would have around 13.5% to perhaps 20% if were to be allowed to be aggressive in BTC and the rest in traditional investment and relatively poor performing assets..

If I had even followed that formula, perhaps I would not have even had been allowed to buy up to 13.5% allocation into bitcoin because I had already recommended to my little selfie to invest ONLY up to 10% of my quasi-liquid investable assets into BTC, but then when I reached a 10% allocation around the end of 2014, the BTC price stayed pretty flat through most of 2015, so I continued to add BTC and my BTC investment had reached 13.5% investment into BTC by October of 2015.

Seems to me that the better theory when it comes to BTC is to let your winners ride and to employ some more minimal volitility offsetting formulas that are not so damned extreme as rebalancing back to pathetic or whimpy allocation amounts.

In 2017, my winners (BTC) went from 13.5% up to 80% and then came down to about 44% at its low in December 2018.. and now my winners (BTC) is at about 86.5% currently, even though it had been about 91% during the April-ish BTC price peak.. but what the fuck need is there for me to get caught up on worrying when there might be a peaks or troughs in the BTC price or whatever direction the BTC price might go when I am already comfortable with what I got and my various strategies within BTC to help to protect myself from some of the seemingly inevitable price volatility, including that I am comfortable that my current about 13.5% allocation of investments into various traditional assets are enough to mostly sustain me if needed and I am not even worried about my BTC since my BTC has been overall outperforming without any real expectations that it is going to stop outperforming all traditional assets including compounding value upon itself, and seems to me to be a way to keep yourself poor if you are regularly reallocating (or rebalancing) your winner (BTC) at times that might not be appropriate.. including some of the potential complexities of paying taxes on the part that you sold and maybe you really did not want to sell that portion of your BTC.

In the end, do what you want regarding rebalancing your BTC, but I am pretty convinced that my late 2016/early 2017 to allow my winners to mostly ride has overall brought way more compounding of value to me and comfort to me and richie status to me than if I had rebalanced to some set percentage (whether that would have been 10% or 13.5% or even 20% to be generous to my BTC allocation) every time the overall BTC portfolio went up relative to those other traditional assets that I have.

Even if I would have allowed more generous allocations to BTC by rebalancing to 20%, seems to me that I would have caused my lil selfie to have a way smaller BTC stash and a lot of stress trying to figure out how to get back the BTC that I had sold, and sure I would have plugged that money into a bunch of relatively-speaking loser investments that I did not want to accumulate more of.. and maybe I would have been able to buy BTC back lower.. but not feeling good about how all that would have played out.

In other words, seems to me that it would be way better to figure out how you would like to play your bitcoin hand without necessarily going to extremes or blind formulas that are failing/refusing to recognize the exponential s-curve potential of king daddy and getting forced into some traditional finance nonsense that causes you to sell way too much of your BTC way too soon, and largely you are likely not very interested in those other investments, anyhow.. except perhaps merely as kinds of place holders... but whatever.. do what you want. You have to live with whatever it happens to be.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

After reading some tweets this morning, sadly realize the high profile people I added recently who promote Bitcoin (with laser eyes) as a currency for its functionality and features are now whining about dumps and giving questionable trading tips. I guess they are stuck in some crap position making them nervous and not following their own ideals after all.

Going against the Twitter narrative, I might adopt an approach commonly used before the MTGOX crash, when all you see is volatility then go for rebalancing.

The constant-mix rebalancing strategy will outperform all other strategies in oscillating markets. The buy-and-hold rebalancing strategy will outperform in up-trending markets.

Usually what happens by the time I port the rebalancer bots to work with new exchange APIs is that the rate turns flat for ages, so perhaps I'll go manual trading for now until volatility is confirmed.

This bot is thinking:  "Fuck rebalancing and those theories about blindly rebalancing such a great investment as bitcoin."

You know that some of the professional investors who are investing the funds of other people are forced to rebalance their BTC because they are not allowed to go beyond certain allocations.. whether that is 2% or 5% or some other whimpy number, they are not allowed to let their winners ride.

Individuals can authorize their lil selfies to do whatever they want.  Individuals do not have to follow the same underperforming guidelines of professional investors, and not even that professional investors out perform index funds..  and if individuals want to engage in dumb investing techniques such as rebalancing, then let those individuals sacrifice their lil selfies and limit their little selfies from being one of the beneficiaries of the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever experienced (at least to date)... so yeah.. cut off your nose off, despite your face.. and that will have been your choice regarding how to play out your bitcoin investment..

If I had been forced to rebalance my BTC, I would be poor as fuck right now.... or at least I would have around 13.5% to perhaps 20% if were to be allowed to be aggressive in BTC and the rest in traditional investment and relatively poor performing assets..

If I had even followed that formula, perhaps I would not have even had been allowed to buy up to 13.5% allocation into bitcoin because I had already recommended to my little selfie to invest ONLY up to 10% of my quasi-liquid investable assets into BTC, but then when I reached a 10% allocation around the end of 2014, the BTC price stayed pretty flat through most of 2015, so I continued to add BTC and my BTC investment had reached 13.5% investment into BTC by October of 2015.

Seems to me that the better theory when it comes to BTC is to let your winners ride and to employ some more minimal volitility offsetting formulas that are not so damned extreme as rebalancing back to pathetic or whimpy allocation amounts.

In 2017, my winners (BTC) went from 13.5% up to 80% and then came down to about 44% at its low in December 2018.. and now my winners (BTC) is at about 86.5% currently, even though it had been about 91% during the April-ish BTC price peak.. but what the fuck need is there for me to get caught up on worrying when there might be a peaks or troughs in the BTC price or whatever direction the BTC price might go when I am already comfortable with what I got and my various strategies within BTC to help to protect myself from some of the seemingly inevitable price volatility, including that I am comfortable that my current about 13.5% allocation of investments into various traditional assets are enough to mostly sustain me if needed and I am not even worried about my BTC since my BTC has been overall outperforming without any real expectations that it is going to stop outperforming all traditional assets including compounding value upon itself, and seems to me to be a way to keep yourself poor if you are regularly reallocating (or rebalancing) your winner (BTC) at times that might not be appropriate.. including some of the potential complexities of paying taxes on the part that you sold and maybe you really did not want to sell that portion of your BTC.

In the end, do what you want regarding rebalancing your BTC, but I am pretty convinced that my late 2016/early 2017 to allow my winners to mostly ride has overall brought way more compounding of value to me and comfort to me and richie status to me than if I had rebalanced to some set percentage (whether that would have been 10% or 13.5% or even 20% to be generous to my BTC allocation) every time the overall BTC portfolio went up relative to those other traditional assets that I have.

Even if I would have allowed more generous allocations to BTC by rebalancing to 20%, seems to me that I would have caused my lil selfie to have a way smaller BTC stash and a lot of stress trying to figure out how to get back the BTC that I had sold, and sure I would have plugged that money into a bunch of relatively-speaking loser investments that I did not want to accumulate more of.. and maybe I would have been able to buy BTC back lower.. but not feeling good about how all that would have played out.

In other words, seems to me that it would be way better to figure out how you would like to play your bitcoin hand without necessarily going to extremes or blind formulas that are failing/refusing to recognize the exponential s-curve potential of king daddy and getting forced into some traditional finance nonsense that causes you to sell way too much of your BTC way too soon, and largely you are likely not very interested in those other investments, anyhow.. except perhaps merely as kinds of place holders... but whatever.. do what you want. You have to live with whatever it happens to be.

Last time I used bots for rebalancing successfully it was ~280% profit in two weeks, granted, at that time Bitcoin was swinging a lot more than now and some exchanges allowed pending orders without allocating funds until triggered. In my opinion, there are several benefits of using bots; works a lot faster than a human, removes emotion from the trade, moves your strategy from making individual trades to tuning the rebalancing scheme. Fully aware that this probably means I'm a bad trader, but good at programming, so there you go.

I agree with several of the points you are making, and thanks for the tips. At this very moment it looks way too flat for rebalancing, need bigger fluctuations on an hourly basis.

[Biodom]

bitcoin IS money..stop making a straw men out of your zeroes and ones.
Where are the beloved ratts, damn it? Deleted?
Btw, one day you are 'rich-as-fuck', next day you cannot find 10 bitcoins to your name.
So, what is it...or rather which version of "reality" you are currently on?
All complete bullshit.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Last time I used bots for rebalancing successfully it was ~280% profit in two weeks, granted, at that time Bitcoin was swinging a lot more than now and some exchanges allowed pending orders without allocating funds until triggered. In my opinion, there are several benefits of using bots; works a lot faster than a human, removes emotion from the trade, moves your strategy from making individual trades to tuning the rebalancing scheme. Fully aware that this probably means I'm a bad trader, but good at programming, so there you go.

I agree with several of the points you are making, and thanks for the tips. At this very moment it looks way too flat for rebalancing, need bigger fluctuations on an hourly basis.

Your response shows that we are talking about two different things.  

You really seem to be talking about using bots for trading, which surely is beyond my skillset or even my desired things that I would like to learn.

Does sound like a potentially good way of making good returns, so long as you are good at programing, like you said, and you have some parameters that you want to set that will likely work well without the bot going beserk on you... but of course, if you either limit the wallet balance within the hands of the bot and/or make sure that you are not setting parameters in a way that you are not going to get drained.. then you may well have to give a lesson on that here for peeps who might be interested in doing something like that.. at least in the event that you don't want to give away too many trade secrets, either.

bitcoin IS money..stop making a straw men out of your zeroes and ones.
Where are the beloved ratts, damn it? Deleted?

Look at you.

Responding to a peep (or bot) that you are supposedly ignoring.

Pathetic.    

Btw, one day you are 'rich-as-fuck', next day you cannot find 10 bitcoins to your name.
So, what is it...or rather which version of "reality" you are currently on?

Depends on the point that I am wanting to make.

And, what's your point exactly?

Are you suggesting that this peep is inconsistent?

That could not be.

Let it NOT be so.  I insist!!!!!!

[Hueristic]

Stumbled on this, thought one of you guys might find it interesting.

Exercise to the reader: steal my bitcoins from my 3rd identity wallet (mgh4VjZx5MpkHRis9mDsF2ZcKLdXoP3oQ4) to your own wallet If done successfully, the 3rd wallet will show “Final Balance” of 0. At the time of writing this is 0.00095000 BTC, as we intended and expected.

https://karpathy.github.io/2021/06/21/blockchain/

https://www.blockchain.com/btc-testnet/address/mgh4VjZx5MpkHRis9mDsF2ZcKLdXoP3oQ4

[Biodom]

You admitted to being a congenital liar or a fake buffoon.
It figures.

[Gyrsur]

I bought 1100 $BTC in the past few days. Will keep buying more.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin in July



Well no I should hope not ofc.

 

[modrobert]

Your response shows that we are talking about two different things.  

You really seem to be talking about using bots for trading, which surely is beyond my skillset or even my desired things that I would like to learn.

Does sound like a potentially good way of making good returns, so long as you are good at programing, like you said, and you have some parameters that you want to set that will likely work well without the bot going beserk on you... but of course, if you either limit the wallet balance within the hands of the bot and/or make sure that you are not setting parameters in a way that you are not going to get drained.. then you may well have to give a lesson on that here for peeps who might be interested in doing something like that.. at least in the event that you don't want to give away too many trade secrets, either.

The first bot I used with some minor modifications was this one by prof7bit written in Python:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181584.0

Later used one in Java for BTC-e (now defunct, another destroyed exchange).

I would most likely port the old Python one (see link) to support the Binance API, but we will see, not going to bother unless we see some volatility/oscillation action.

[Xinarae*]

Bitcoin's downturn is over now Bitcoin is getting ready to go up Bitcoin has seen a lot of growth in the last few hours. so Bitcoin pumping soon in higher start
 first week on july and next move to higher 



https://twitter.com/FSgura/status/1407560503249997827

[Wekkel]

The real boss: https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/human-nature-is-pro-cyclical/

It’s just a cycle. Grow a pair 

[modrobert]

Bitcoin core developer Pieter Wuille...

For the first time in... I think forever, I'm going to need to adjust the range of my hashrate graphs downwards. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Source: https://twitter.com/pwuille/status/1407447313988014081

Regarding hashrate and the protection of Bitcoin blockchain, I don't see any reason for concern, still ridiculously high level of protection even if you would move down towards 10% of current hashrate. If large scale mining operations gets hunted down and obliterated like old exchanges (starting to look that way) it will be more smaller scale operations working with lower difficulty instead (as Satoshi intended). If you really worry and want to support, then start mining small scale, without profit in mind.

I've recently installed the latest Bitcoin core client (bitcoind), currently downloading the blockchain, and will start solo mining with my old Jalapeno ASIC to support with a full node once again and do some minuscule mining.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

You admitted to being a congenital liar or a fake buffoon.
It figures.

I did not admit to either or both of those.

I doubt that I am very popular, but rarely have I been accused of being some form of disingenuous... except maybe rare occasions when certain members are getting too emotionally involved in some kind of seemingly irrelevant derailed personal attack and battle coming within their own feelings, which seems to be where you are currently wanting to go with this thread of our conversation.

Historically, you have devolved into quite a few emotional outbursts in your interactions with me, yet frequently your simultaneous solicitations for the help of others to chime into your concerns does not really seem to bring results - unless you happen to write some content that is actually funny - even if it is meant to be a dig toward me... .

Don't get me wrong.. because I hardly give any shits, but just saying about your ongoing devolutions into emotionalism, that's all.

I am speculating that perhaps an employment of a wee bit more humor from you could be helpful for your own dealings with whatever dilemmas you seem to be having... .. and surely it could even save you from some of your own bafooneries.. though you do come out with some pretty ridiculous ones, fairly regularly... .. and surely no need to repeat any of those here...   posts speak for themselves.  

 

Bitcoin in July



Well no I should hope not ofc.

 

To me, it seems to NOT be very good for karma to be saying what you "don't want".. #justpointingitout

Your response shows that we are talking about two different things.  

You really seem to be talking about using bots for trading, which surely is beyond my skillset or even my desired things that I would like to learn.

Does sound like a potentially good way of making good returns, so long as you are good at programing, like you said, and you have some parameters that you want to set that will likely work well without the bot going beserk on you... but of course, if you either limit the wallet balance within the hands of the bot and/or make sure that you are not setting parameters in a way that you are not going to get drained.. then you may well have to give a lesson on that here for peeps who might be interested in doing something like that.. at least in the event that you don't want to give away too many trade secrets, either.

The first bot I used with some minor modifications was this one by prof7bit written in Python:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181584.0

Later used one in Java for BTC-e (now defunct, another destroyed exchange).

I would most likely port the old Python one (see link) to support the Binance API, but we will see, not going to bother unless we see some volatility/oscillation action.

Might be interesting to know if you would be successful.. in terms of getting a bot to work on another exchange.

Of course, if you had used something like that on MTGOX and then on BTC-e that is quite historical happenings rather than recent happenings.. so you may well be out of practice or rusty, no?

I never did try to set up an account on MTGOX, but BTC-e was an easy place to set up an account in early days (talking late 2013). and yeah, I lost some coins on that exchange (I think that it was around mid 2017?) and I probably should have discontinued using them at a certain point, but did not really realize how badly it was going to devolve.., even though the signs were fairly strong..

PS  By the way @modrobert, I reflected a wee bit more on your stated concern about lack of volatility and/or oscillation, and jeez.. I am wondering what level of volatility and/or oscillation do "need" in bitcoinlandia in order to feel comfortable?  

Perhaps you are looking for BTC prices to stay in a smaller price range?.. and I wonder if you would be able to get consistent returns.. not that you would be very likely to get me to change anything that I do (including the employment of a trading bot).. because right now I consider myself as a mostly HODLer and an accumulator who uses trading for insurance purposes, and I do consider that I trade relatively BIG swings relative to my beginning history ..

I started out trading less than $5 price moves  (and surely the price spread was around $10.. I cannot remember exactly), but sure the BTC price was then only around $250.. and now my trades are $1k price moves between trades, but my spreads are $6k to $7k .. but then if we get back to $60k-ish then my intervals become something like $3,000 and the spreads shuld be BIGGER too.. but sometimes I am NOT sure how those spreads will get BIGGER or even how much dollars/or sats that I might be stacking up until we get there also..  Anyhow, with the passage of time, it does seem that I am quite a bit less active - even though I am setting my orders manually, and of course if the BTC price moves $10k or $20k in a few days, that does tend to cause me to have to be more active in the order resetting arena...  

For example on the most recent BTC price move:  I had sell orders execute in the $37ks $38ks, $39ks, $40k (the ones in the $41ks did not execute); then I had buy orders that executed in the $34ks, $33ks, $32ks, $31ks, $30ks and $29ks (the ones in the $28ks did not execute).  My next sell orders are in the $35ks and every $1k thereafter for quite a ways up.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/tuurdemeester/status/1407344499337072649?s=21