Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

~snip
I propose collectively wearing above hat with laser eyes to $50k. @xhomerx10 can you do you magic please?

Nice 1 . Thanks

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... whee.

what you guys think about this style?

 Okay, that is a pretty awesome stylized Bitcoin symbol. 

 

  Thanks for the merits marcus_of_augustus!

 It appears that I'm in need of an upgrade on my eyeglasses - appreciate the critique bitebits.  I cleaned up the 'wings' and some other artifacts in the images.  We can't be showing up at 50k BTC looking like impoverished vagrants

[xhomerx10]

 

... borderline genius-level work here

 Thank you.  I can't take credit for the idea though, I just shuffled the pixels until it looked right.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

BUT.  The pipe has to be big enough to send ALL the transactions that need to be sent at any one time.  BUT it also has to take into consideration the fact that much of the existing BTC is simply NOT AVAILABLE. That means instead of bitcoin being equal to 1/21000000 of everything, instead the AVAILABLE float is equal to all the of things currently for sale -- at least.

I am still working on this, but i feel like this train of thought goes somewhere... maybe just in circles?  

You're on the right track. But even the float is fake to some extent...it can never be accurately known what the float has available for sale. There likely is all kinds of fraud going on with it: naked buying, naked shorting, fake buy/sell walls, phantom coins, rehypothicated coins shared across multiple "owners" with supposed valid claims, fake or vastly under reported reserves, etc. This is compounded by the amount of leverage many of these exchanges are allowing whales to use.

My gut tells me that that the actual amount of physical bitcoin "available" is a mere fraction of what actually trades virtually. Only massive bull runs and massive short squeezes can help to reveal the truth. Or big buyers like Grayscale come in.

For example, when you see the Bitcoin market hit the lowest of lows and seems dead. The price is all fake, because the exchanges don't really have all the bitcoin available for sale at that low price. They only have a fraction, and whales have used fraud and naked shorting to push the price down that low. And their bluff gets called the minute another whale comes in with a real massive buy order, the price jumps massively. The float price can literally double overnight.

Another way to look at it is that the asks virtually extend a long way to the right. My bitcoin are off the market but if you offered me 100k OTC, you might well squeeze one out of me. What you see on the exchanges is just the "hot" part of trading. Even there, given how we see walls come and go, a lot of that isn't even "real" either. Though certainly there are a lot of "lost" bitcoin too but the question is, what difference does it make? Just remember that the price is just the last that two parties agreed to exchange for and there's much more to the story. It's a stochastic process.

What is definitely not real is "market cap". But hopefully we all recognize that by now.

[philipma1957]

Yeah if my buy ladder is for a total of .25 btc


and my sell ladder is for a total of .25btc


while i have 1.5 btc in a cold wallet


you are not seeing the real picture.

as ¾  of the btc is hidden.

I am not the only one that has a cold wallet. with more offline than in an exchange.

[modrobert]

Regarding hashrate and the protection of Bitcoin blockchain, I don't see any reason for concern, still ridiculously high level of protection even if you would move down towards 10% of current hashrate. If large scale mining operations gets hunted down and obliterated like old exchanges (starting to look that way) it will be more smaller scale operations working with lower difficulty instead (as Satoshi intended). If you really worry and want to support, then start mining small scale, without profit in mind.

My only real concern would be if this was a move by the Chinese government to obtain direct control of >50% of the hashrate with malicious intent. With the Chinese government, the latter us possible though hopefully the former is not.

The price is crazy flat. Constant seller pushing down or constant buyer pulling up?

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

Agreed about the price, almost as if someone is worried selling too much at once would crash the rate to unknown depths, so they place market sell orders slowly and carefully (a bot?), here's hoping that plan will fail, up or down is fine by me, but this shit feels artificial and tense. Continuous cliffhanger...

EDIT:

Hmm...
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-count

[Torque]

What is definitely not real is "market cap". But hopefully we all recognize that by now.

Yes "market cap" for Bitcoin is definitely not real.

And it's beyond laughable with the shitcoins that have either a ridiculously high premine, high issuance cap, or no cap at all.

[vapourminer]

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

well they could just take over bitmain and force them to crank new miners out exclusively for gov use, leave it offline until they are assured of >51% then attack bitcoin simply to try and destroy it (ie no direct financial advantage they just want it gone so it doesnt compete with there own digital centralized stuff).

it would take stockpiling all new bitmain stuff, leaving it all offline (secret) wait till assured >51% and then unleash it all at once. pretty tall order but maybe possible?

[philipma1957]

Regarding hashrate and the protection of Bitcoin blockchain, I don't see any reason for concern, still ridiculously high level of protection even if you would move down towards 10% of current hashrate. If large scale mining operations gets hunted down and obliterated like old exchanges (starting to look that way) it will be more smaller scale operations working with lower difficulty instead (as Satoshi intended). If you really worry and want to support, then start mining small scale, without profit in mind.

My only real concern would be if this was a move by the Chinese government to obtain direct control of >50% of the hashrate with malicious intent. With the Chinese government, the latter us possible though hopefully the former is not.

The price is crazy flat. Constant seller pushing down or constant buyer pulling up?

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

Agreed about the price, almost as if someone is worried selling too much at once would crash the rate to unknown depths, so they place market sell orders slowly and carefully (a bot?), here's hoping that plan will fail, up or down is fine by me, but this shit feels artificial and tense. Continuous cliffhanger...

EDIT:

Hmm...
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-count

well we will be down from a diff of 26.3 to 16 very soon

so the government of china if they are stealing the gear to attack is getting close.

btw any major government can attack any pow coin if they can get enough gear.

on the plus side my btc mining will soon go from

.007 coins a day to

0.0084 coins a day

[Copetech]

So I bought dip and hodl.

Still have buys at

29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023

Scary how closely our buy points line up! I'm a few dollars over the 500's rather than the even 1000's but playing down to the same bottom. Still in frantic accumulation mode though so I have half as many sell points as buy points starting from $40k up to $48k. Really hoping to see it hit $46 and bounce back down before shooting for the moon, but we'll see.
(I want moar cheap corns!)

[modrobert]

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

well they could just take over bitmain and force them to crank new miners out exclusively for gov use, leave it offline until they are assured of >51% then attack bitcoin simply to try and destroy it (ie no direct financial advantage they just want it gone so it doesnt compete with there own digital centralized stuff).

it would take stockpiling all new bitmain stuff, leaving it all offline (secret) wait till assured >51% and then unleash it all at once. pretty tall order but maybe possible?

I like your critical thinking of worst case scenario, definitely a possible approach. The more reason to start mining small scale distributed, power of the many over a few corrupted.

[Torque]

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

well they could just take over bitmain and force them to crank new miners out exclusively for gov use, leave it offline until they are assured of >51% then attack bitcoin simply to try and destroy it (ie no direct financial advantage they just want it gone so it doesnt compete with there own digital centralized stuff).

it would take stockpiling all new bitmain stuff, leaving it all offline (secret) wait till assured >51% and then unleash it all at once. pretty tall order but maybe possible?

Still doesn't make sense tho. The time to have done this to kill off Bitcoin successfully and easily was 8 years ago.

IMHO, I think China plans to keep mining around. Big miners will either cut deals to pay the extortion bribes, or move to better locations. Most of them will likely pay to stay.

Governments don't like to run public servers and deal with such maintenance and overhead. They know they suck at it.

Look for a reverse FUD announcement in the future like "China to allow miners who adhere to new renewable energy policy restrictions to resume Bitcoin mining."  

[philipma1957]

So I bought dip and hodl.

Still have buys at

29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023

Scary how closely our buy points line up! I'm a few dollars over the 500's rather than the even 1000's but playing down to the same bottom. Still in frantic accumulation mode though so I have half as many sell points as buy points starting from $40k up to $48k. Really hoping to see it hit $46 and bounce back down before shooting for the moon, but we'll see.
(I want moar cheap corns!)

keep posting i gave you 5 merits you will make rank

yeah the exchange has small buy and sell ladder.

And i hold the middle numbers

over 30k to 65k off line

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

Yes, good point, the "51% of hashrate attack" is a serious threat. The core idea of mining incentive is greed, assuming it's more profitable to support than abuse something profitable, but if a state gains control and it turns political, that could be a nightmare. What I don't get is why China would be kicking out the miners out then? If the plan was to gain control I mean.

well they could just take over bitmain and force them to crank new miners out exclusively for gov use, leave it offline until they are assured of >51% then attack bitcoin simply to try and destroy it (ie no direct financial advantage they just want it gone so it doesnt compete with there own digital centralized stuff).

it would take stockpiling all new bitmain stuff, leaving it all offline (secret) wait till assured >51% and then unleash it all at once. pretty tall order but maybe possible?

Still doesn't make sense. The time to have done this to kill off Bitcoin successfully and easily was 8 years ago.

I think China plans to keep mining around. Big miners will either cut deals to pay the extortion bribes, or move to better locations. Most of them will likely pay to stay.

Governments don't like to run public servers and deal with such maintenance and overhead. They know they suck at it.

Look for a reverse FUD announcement in the future like "China to allow miners who adhere to new renewable energy policy restrictions to resume Bitcoin mining."  

Yes, definitely feels more likely there's no attack plan in the works, but good to cover all angles, even if less likely.

Thinking about mitigation of a "51% attack" if it was in the works. We could always DDOS the fuckers into orbit, and developers could black list them in Bitcoin client software patching them out, or a hard fork (as a last resort). There are lot of skilled people out there who wants to see Bitcoin succeed, pretty sure we can deal with this shit if it ever happened.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1407682144374345732?s=21

She knows

[El duderino_]

Beautiful said….. BTC doesn’t need them….

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1407683658085974019?s=21


The one reversal indicator we can count on

[modrobert]

on the plus side my btc mining will soon go from

.007 coins a day to

0.0084 coins a day

Happy to read that, the more miners the better.

[Torque]

M. Saylor absolutely nailing the point about inflation yet again. Almost all Average Joes are looking at the wrong data.

Look at assets that people actually want that have value, not the CPI basket.


https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1407386415760089093