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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26491077 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
FatFork
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June 23, 2021, 08:02:37 PM

As reported by the Spanish media, McAfee was found dead in his cell by prison guards, and all signs point to suicide.

I hope you are at peace, weirdo.  Undecided
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June 23, 2021, 08:11:27 PM

Love him or hate him, he was one of a kind, and a pretty interesting dude.  Smart, eccentric.

And I give it a 30% chance he killed himself.  The only reason I say something that high is he was in prison as he came off whatever the cocktail of chemistry he was feasting on constantly for the last decades.  I can only imagine the withdrawal, and I would assume the natural depression that sets in during this would be HEAVILY exacerbated by being in jail at what it most likely the tail end of your life.

So yeah... he certainly could have done it.

But it's also possible he did not.
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June 23, 2021, 08:32:58 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

As reported by the Spanish media, McAfee was found dead in his cell by prison guards, and all signs point to suicide.

I hope you are at peace, weirdo.  Undecided


Yep. Sad. I knew him back in the 90's, and met him again at Bsides Vegas a few years ago. He was... not well. Really not the person I remembered.

I hope he has found peace, and didn't die from eating his own dick.
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June 23, 2021, 08:40:09 PM

So I bought dip and hodl.

Still have buys at

29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023



Scary how closely our buy points line up! I'm a few dollars over the 500's rather than the even 1000's but playing down to the same bottom. Still in frantic accumulation mode though so I have half as many sell points as buy points starting from $40k up to $48k. Really hoping to see it hit $46 and bounce back down before shooting for the moon, but we'll see.
(I want moar cheap corns!)

Personally, I do not recommend selling BTC in order to accumulate more BTC until you have already reached or exceeded your accumulation goal.

Perhaps Chinacoin is SHA256 too. Just switch over a bunch of hashrate and have instant high security that would put any alt to shame. It would be very centralized, of course but if it's feasible, so was Bitcoin really.

You are saying that bitcoin is (was) centralized or am I misunderstanding you? 

I will concede that bitcoin was likely centralized for nearly its first couple of years of existence while satoshi was around, but what happened since satoshi left in late 2010?  bitcoin became pretty decentralized no?

I think that the failure of the bcash shenanigans and the subsequent (and related) segwit2x actually showed bitcoin to be decentralized rather than not.. are you saying otherwise?

You want to say that developers are centralized or some other aspect?   Maybe we should not go down this road, but maybe I am just trying to get some sense of your "is" or "was" centralized?  and how that might be any kind of an issue that is even close to the level of a nation state's coin.

If we are talking about "was" centralized, when was the "was" that matters to the question and is there a "centralization" issue right now in bitcoin that is comparable to some nation state creating and managing a coin that has no intention to ever become decentralized, even if they use those words to describe their likely to fail project?
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June 23, 2021, 08:48:04 PM

As reported by the Spanish media, McAfee was found dead in his cell by prison guards, and all signs point to suicide.

I hope you are at peace, weirdo.  Undecided


Yep. Sad. I knew him back in the 90's, and met him again at Bsides Vegas a few years ago. He was... not well. Really not the person I remembered.

I hope he has found peace, and didn't die from eating his own dick.

I also hope he didn't die from eating somebody else's dick... anyway RIP John...  Sad
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June 23, 2021, 08:54:27 PM

Wonder if someone got him.
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June 23, 2021, 08:59:22 PM

Just saw this. RIP John.



(from flemish newspaper De Tijd / "Time")
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June 23, 2021, 09:01:34 PM


Explanation
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June 23, 2021, 09:21:11 PM

Central bank digital currencies get full BIS backing. Tongue

Quote
The Bank for International Settlements has given its full backing to the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), saying they are needed to modernise finance and ensure 'Big Tech' does not take control of money.


Strange way of framing the matter, though not really untrue.



Crypto is death comments starting to Pop up everywhere. This time for real?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


I take out all my cryptos from exchanges now. Will not sell anything.
I spent too much money on Doge (while sleeping) Cheesy I had sold some, bought back, sold again, and turned a profit in euro. I set buy backs orders all the way back to a fraction of a cent, the higher ones triggered. So I now have more Doge than I started this adventure with, and still euros left. I'll see later whether or not buying back was a good call, but ending up with more than I started with doesn't feel like an absolute loss.
I kinda hope Doge will go all the way down, then I'll be ready 4 years from now when it hypes again.

Are you purposefully trying to irritate peeps here?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
No, not intentional Wink It's just that I wouldn't dare do that with the real thing, Bitcoin is for HODLing (and the occasional payment), so I don't keep it on exchanges.

Oh for sure any of us can be motivated by Gresham's law, even if we do not know what is Gresham's law.

People do it all the time.  They perceive certain kinds of values for spending and other kinds of values for holding, and surely if they run out of all the spendables, then they have no choice but to spend whatever they happen to have.


Selling now would be for the purpose of either manipulation or panic.
It always feels like I'm being pulled 2 ways:
1. They want me to sell when it drops!
2. They want me to get hope again when it goes up a bit!
So I do what I always do: I'm not buying, I'm not selling. Just making sure I can afford to pay my taxes next year Smiley
I suppose that is one way to deal with the situation, especially if you feel that you have accumulated enough BTC.
I wouldn't say "it's enough", but it also feels like there's not really a point buying dust amounts now.

Well, only you can decide how much is enough and your various other personal factors in order to attempt to achieve your various targets including considering what your timeline might be, so if you have 4 years or more before you are going to need to draw upon your BTC, then it could well be justifiable to continue to buy on dips and to DCA.. .. but sure you need to have enough for the taxman too.. you would not want to get caught having to cash out of any of your BTC that is at any time except for your own choosing.

And, in regards to dust, it all has potentials to be adding up if your time horizon is long enough, and surely I have frequently said that a lot of investors are going to likely need to have at least a couple of bitcoin cycles in order to get to the point where they are starting to be in very decent profits.. and we can never really know whether we are at the bottom, the middle or the top.

I have told this story several times, Loyce, so I don't want to bore you with my repetition, but I do believe that it remains illustrative of various points that I want to make in terms of continuing to accumulate BTC until you are comfortable for where you are at.. and maybe even it can be good to become a bit over invested, especially if you happen to believe that BTC continues to have decent chances of being the fastest horse in the race...

Anyhow, in late 2014, I had considered that I was mostly at a level of BTC accumulation in which I had sufficiently reached my BTC accumulation goals.. which was 10%, so at that point, even though I continued to set up a reasonably modest DCA practice, I had ended up investing more into BTC during 2015 and even accumulating up to 13.5%-ish which would have been a kind of over accumulation because of exceeding my goal to reach 10% and because BTC prices largely remained way lower than my costs per BTC during that whole year (2015). 

Several times in 2015, I made purchases of $25 or some other stupidly modest amount, but sure, even $25 would have been 0.1BTC, and at the time, it seemed like just pocket change.. I mean I had some pretty heavy cashflow problems through about late January 2015 until about May 2015, so I had ONLY made a few BTC purchases during that time, but seems to me that by May 2015, some of my cashflow issues started to work themselves out, so I could resume buying BTC from time to time.  I did make a couple of BTC purchases in that January 2015 to May 2015 period, but relatively speaking they were pretty sparse based on cashflow issues that I had related to another business that I was in (and it was not a bitcoin related business).

So, if we look back to 2015, we are talking in the ballpark of 6 years, which is 1.5 bitcoin 4-year cycles.

I will also concede that I also was able to cheat a wee bit in my getting into bitcoin because when I came to the bitcoin table in late 2013, I had already established a decently sized investment portfolio that did not include bitcoin, so when I decided to get into bitcoin part of the initial motive was just to divert what I already had into bitcoin, and then by the time we were starting to get close to late 2014, I had decided to establish the amount that I was investing into bitcoin to 10%, but that was 10% of a set of funds that were already a decent size.. which could well put me in a bit of an advantage as compared with someone who is starting from scratch and it could take them 3 cycles or more before they really are able to reach their BTC accumulation goals.

I personally believe that one of the most guaranteed aspects of BTC is volatility, so if you can establish ways to deal with that volatility without getting bothered then it is all good.... One of the strictest ways are ongoing DCA buying and buying on dips.. one of the problems with the buying on dips portion is to sufficiently measure yourself so that you never run out of fiat.. sometimes easier said than done, especially during seemingly extreme dippening times.
DCA is only beneficial if the value is dropping, if it's going up a lump sum is better.

Fuck that nonsense Loyce.  Of course, there is an advantage of lump sum investing, but a whole hell of a lot of people do not have a lump sum in which they can invest.

Sure, overall I agree with your point about lump sum first, but once you have invested, then you should be converting over to DCA with a regular amount on a regular basis.  Sure, you can save portions of your money for lump sum investing and for buying on dips, but if you hold back too much then you would be disadvantaged too.. so DCA is a really great practice because you neither know for sure which way the BTC price is going to go, and you do not have to stress out about attempting to guess, and surely you do not have to do an all or nothing approach, and likely I do not even need to show you the DCA chart, right?  From your time on the forum we could use 6.5 years or maybe 7 years as your BTC investment time line and figure out if you have at least matched that level of return with your own investment style over the years (talking about the percentage of returns).

Ok... what the heck.. here goes.  I plugged in your BTC investing start date for DCA'ing as February 26, 2015, and then I put $20 per week for your amount.  So what do we get? We get that you could have been able to get around 35.6x returns on your DCA way of investing into bitcoin.  Hopefully, whatever you are doing is getting in the ballpark of that... I am not suggesting that some of us might not make mistakes along the way or that your performance could have been either higher or lower than the DCA.. but if your system is not getting somewhere close to DCA then there is a lot of need to question your system.. and don't be knocking on DCA in terms of DCA historically being a very powerful strategy... and there is no real evidence that you are going to be able to outperform DCA in the future.... especially if you are not already sitting on a lump sum that you can put into bitcoin right now, as I type this post... or some reasonably prompt period thereafter.
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June 23, 2021, 09:21:52 PM

Just saw this. RIP John.



(from flemish newspaper De Tijd / "Time")


he be dead. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/spanish-court-oks-extradition-mcafee-134640645.html
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June 23, 2021, 09:22:58 PM

You gotta zoom out.

Who cares if we might get stuck in some kind of $32k to $35k or whatever largely noise that you are proclaiming to be flat for a day or two or even a week or two.. does not really matter too much.

Zoom dee fuck out!!!!!!!! #nohomo.


I do quite often (we still seem to be a little bit overpriced from that perspective). But the answer to my question would indicate whether the price is trying to move up or down at the moment.

I think I might add a bitcoin bought vs bitcoin sold to ChartBuddy. That information seems to be available from Bitstamp.
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June 23, 2021, 09:30:28 PM


You are saying that bitcoin is (was) centralized or am I misunderstanding you? 


It's a conditional. If China was able to accomplish that, they effectively had control of Bitcoin anyway (which arguably has been the case at times even if they never exercised that power). I don't know if that's their aim nor whether they are capable of it though.
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June 23, 2021, 09:41:33 PM

You gotta zoom out.

Who cares if we might get stuck in some kind of $32k to $35k or whatever largely noise that you are proclaiming to be flat for a day or two or even a week or two.. does not really matter too much.

Zoom dee fuck out!!!!!!!! #nohomo.

I do quite often (we still seem to be a little bit overpriced from that perspective). But the answer to my question would indicate whether the price is trying to move up or down at the moment.

So what would we consider UP or DOWN from here?

Might be a good time for Infofront to add my poll question request regarding which one is coming first, and I had set those amounts at $25k and $50k.. but that was a few days ago and prior to $30k support being breached... so yeah.. not sure if those would still be the numbers in question based on updated data.


I think I might add a bitcoin bought vs bitcoin sold to ChartBuddy. That information seems to be available from Bitstamp.

More information never killed anybody, right?

never say never  talking to myself


You are saying that bitcoin is (was) centralized or am I misunderstanding you? 


It's a conditional. If China was able to accomplish that, they effectively had control of Bitcoin anyway (which arguably has been the case at times even if they never exercised that power). I don't know if that's their aim nor whether they are capable of it though.

I am not sure if your assertion is helpful or even if it would be correct to suggest whatever they (China) are capable of doing now is a reflection of what they could have done in the past, if they had tried.

Sure, China could have known that they have a card that they could play or could have played to attempt to control bitcoin, and we still do not have evidence that even if they would have attempted to play a card to "control bitcoin" in the past that the would have been successful, so even if they could have done it in the past, but they did not do it, and whether they would be successful to play such a control bitcoin card at this time is still to be determined both in terms of whether they will attempt to play such a card (if they have it) and if such a card play will be successful if they were to play it.

Lots of "ifs" in there richy... .if that's something like what you are getting at.
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June 23, 2021, 09:51:41 PM

Round 16 knockout stages Euro 2021.

Belgium vs Portugal and England vs Germany will be thrillers to watch.

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June 23, 2021, 10:01:27 PM


Explanation
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June 23, 2021, 10:03:01 PM

ChartBuddy separator Smiley

 
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June 23, 2021, 10:44:02 PM


Well, I  guess he ain't gonna be eating his dick after all....

cue ridiculous conspiracy theory in 3...2..
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June 23, 2021, 11:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 23, 2021, 11:12:15 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)


Well, I  guess he ain't gonna be eating his dick after all....

cue ridiculous conspiracy theory in 3...2..

Oh, he, himself cued one for us:

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June 23, 2021, 11:16:07 PM

OK.  I have a confession to make.

I got into a long drawn out twitter fight with Jorge Stolfi today.

I don't know what got into me, but I just wanted to cram all his ridiculous madness straight down his neck.  Which is impossible as he is irredeemable.

I have read his posts since he showed up here like 7 years ago.  In fact, I have a feeling he may have even annoyed this very thread.

What a hopeless statist fool.
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