The market would keep going down until those who like to buy on the way down would stop buying and others would sell at the bottom-a typical capitulation.
I wish I can convince bottom seekers to stop buying lower and basically destroying the value of your position, but we all have to learn somewhere.
Of course.. You are genius Biodom. Bottoms are reached when people stop buying.. I had not thought about it that way.
I am going to call my buddy, Saylor, and tell him to stop buying so that we can start to go up.
Where the bottom would be, I don't know,
Of course, you do not know... Neither does anyone else.. that's why they keep buying..
We also do not know when the bears are going to run out of coins... or other instruments that they use to push the BTC price down and to keep it down. I was thinking that the bottom would be in soon,
tm but what do I know?
but it would be lower than now (i give it a 70-80% chance).
Could be lower.. especially because our previous bottom (support) of $30k was broken nearly 3 days ago, so that could create some additional potentially successful bottom seeking... or even scaring a few MOAR weak hands to sell rather than buy or HODL... can't deny that part...
Why?
1. Hash rate decrease indicates a decline in the network strength. The cause of the drop is irrelevant-unless it (drop) quickly reverses.
I heard that we have a difficulty adjustment coming in 7 days.. that might help, no?
2. Government crackdown in a form of various 'regulations' in US, UK, EU, etc is upcoming. This would impact functionality first and foremost, and the price as well.
What kind of "crackdown"? that sounds scary.
Seems that we have had "crackdowns" previously, but this one seems even more scary especially since you listed several BIG scary governments...
3. Tax crackdown-see Korea for a start of the trend. People would stop caring about gains if they would be challenged on taxes all the time.
Yeah.. I am sure that this sounds scary too.. if thought about and probably would be more scary with a link, so I am glad that you did not provide any. I would not want to be scared any more than I already am becoming.
If US politicians had a bit of smarts, they would have positioned themselves as the one's in favor of freedom, but they are not.
The idea that the government should direct everything almost completely permeated even the US. I am ruefully 'amazed' by this development, but where it is not so?
Is there any place where we could be free? I am not sure.
Maybe Joe Biden and his team is orchestrating the US Govt to unite against bitcoin?
For sure that will cause the BTC price to go down more, right?
The bear market is here, and the cycle is broken,
Well before you were on the fence about the bear cycle, and now you are confirmed that we are officially in bear season.. because of your listed reasons, presumably. At least you got over those hesitancies that you had from a day or two ago, and surely the new bottom that moved from $30,066 to $28,600 was helpful in convincing you of our transition into a confirmed bear market..
.
I am not ready to go there, yet.. especially since we are still 3.25x up from our September start of this latest uppity run.. and we are still a wee bit more than 50% above the previous ATH.. but hey, you don't need to have any of those considerations to declare we are "officially in bear market" ... that sucks.
I now have it at 70-80% probability that we are in the bear clutches (early stages).
That helps to assign a number to it.. at least you are not 50/50... but like a ref, you gotta call balls and strikes, right?
The chart is awful too-just look at it.
Depending on the angle, sure the chart doesn't look good.
I cannot bring myself to sell bitcoin despite a gloomy prediction above. One reason is that i don't really need or want money for living-have a pretty decent job plus a bit of cash cushion.
Thanks for contributing to the cause. I am sure your 0.12 BTC stash would potentially cause a lot of cascading., so you are saving us from that.
I am fine selling alts thou-raised some cash easily already. Don't care if this is taxable at 20 or 40%, easy come, easy go.
However, I cannot fathom selling bitcoin and then paying 40% in tax after all trials and tribulations my position went through, I just can't.
I will hodl for half a decade and see what transpires and if i kick the bucket beforehand, then it would not be my problem anymore.
not interested in your alts.
I am not going to argue my points we either polite observes or some potty mouthed bot hooligan(s), but here is a numbers prediction for the bottom (that could be easily checked later on):
around 20K is we are lucky, 10K if we are unlucky. Hopefully, it would be close to $20K.
Happy trading (or hodling)!
The 208-week moving average is around $13,300, so I am having difficulties seeing anything below that for more than a spike.. but that would be if we were to be in a bear market.. so in a bull market, seems that the bottom would be close to being in... so you are going to be lucky to be getting any coins below $25k.. but hey what do I know? There are some ideas that any attempts at FUD spreading and crashening has to be stronger and more severe to actually shake some additional folks out of their corn.. so sure we could get some more shakening... including some additional shitcoin shakening (purging) is likely not a bad thing, overall..
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