I guess that part of the problem that I keep reading between the lines of your factual representations is that you still seem to be in accumulation stage of your BTC investing..
I'm in the accumulation stage of
everything investing
even though you are not sure if there might be a better investment out there.
Chances are nothing else is better, but it's a lot less risky.
Furthermore, there is a kind of screaming for DCA’ing in your circumstances, even though you are proclaiming that you prefer lump sum investing, and like I mentioned, I have no problem with lump sum investing, even while it has to be put in a proper context.
My point wasn't that I'd dare to go lump sum, my point was more that DCA is
only better than lump sum when prices are dropping. But if prices are dropping, not investing at all is even better. Of course you can't know that, so DCA can be a good compromise. I'm currently doing it into VWRL, even though I'm pretty convinced most of the stock market is overvalued.
When anyone tells me that they do not have any other investment besides bitcoin, which is largely implying that they ONLY have bitcoin and cash, then I am concluding that it is fairly obvious that such person is not even close to reaching “fuck you” status, and accordingly such person is likely in a kind of accumulation status.. even if they are stating reservations about whether they have enough or not.. or maybe in your case, you are already feeling overallocated in bitcoin and that is why you are hesitant to acquire more in a blindly kind of DCA-ing way.
I'm not close to FU-status indeed, and even though 100% in Bitcoin gives the best chance of reaching that quickly, it's also the most risky strategy. I might do that if I'd be single, but it's not only myself on the line now.
I have some difficulties conceiving anyone who is either close or into “fuck you” status that ONLY has bitcoin and cash. Does not make a lot of sense to me, even though I do understand that there could be some situations that justify such a way of structuring assets. Ultimately, I am thinking that there is a considerable amount of justification to go beyond bitcoin in terms of investments into assets, even if many of us consider bitcoin as the fastest horse in the race, but we still are not too likely to conclude that its volatility does not need to be accounted for.
To get anywhere close to FU-status in my book, I'd need Bitcoin to go up 5-fold. It might happen this year, it may take 4 more years. But
if when it happens, I plan to diversify more to increase the chance of keeping said FU-status.
I am really sympathetic to any ideas about starting out investing in ONLY one asset, and then once such asset investment gets to a decently-sized level (could take several years, and maybe even 10 years), then figuring out where else we want to place our value. We do not want to keep too much in cash, right? Especially if we are holding over several years, right?
Here's the thing: I've always played quite safe, keeping cash in a savings account with a nice interest. Then central banks decided against any interest, forcing me towards riskier investments. But I also know I'm irrational when it comes to investing: "I'm not buying, I'm not selling" means I miss out on opportunities because I'm kinda afraid to make large changes, and it also means I just stick to where I am (up and down).
Loyce, if you are telling me that you are NOT currently buying bitcoin (by using DCA and other methods) because your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then that would be way more understandable than to imply that you are staying in cash because you are waiting for a lump sum investing opportunity… NOT that you are saying that, exactly.
In retrospect, I should have bought more Bitcoin a year ago. But I don't feel like doing it now, especially since Bitcoin is still more expensive than at my biggest sale ever in December last year (to pay taxes).
I think that one of the things that you are telling me is that you are not DCA’ing in Bitcoin because lump sum is better.. and you are waiting on a “down opportunity”, but if the BTC price does not go down from here, you are just going to suck it up, even though you could have bought more BTC at these here prices.
If BTC doesn't go down from here, I couldn't be happier
There is something missing with our back and forth because surely, as I repeat, your situation is screaming DCA should be in your plan somewhere.. but maybe you are still figuring out a way to say what you are doing in a way that makes sense.
DCA is into my plan, but it's currently towards diversification (stock market) and not (more than I am in already) towards Bitcoin. It does help I have some earnings in Bitcoin too of course, so I slowly gain some anyway.
I say fuck that nonsense, and let’s be more strategic about it. Let’s divide the $12k into three, and invest $4k right away (lump sum), structure DCA for the other $4k (for the next 6 months which is $4,000/26= $154 per week) and buy on dips with the other $4k (if you think that the absolute bottom is $20k then you structure down to what you believe to be the absolute bottom, and since you do not know the bottom beyond pure speculation, you want to use increments with this and not put all of it all the way at the bottom.. that would be nutso.. even though I know some peeps in these here parts are nutso and have to fight back their urges to gamble at every opportunity that they get)… hahahahaaha
The problem with this is I'm pretty sure Bitcoin will at some point drop 85% again. It's done it many times, and just recently dropped 50% again. I'm (a bit) okay with that (even though going up is much more fun), but I wouldn't want to expose more of my everything into Bitcoin. I did set a plan though to sell some at some point, and buy back at another point if it drops enough. I expect/hope to reach those targets in the coming years.
Sure, if you already have some money in BTC, then you might need to adjust how much you allocate to each of the three categories that I describe above.. but nonetheless, from my humble bumble (and not always so humble) opinion the DCA proportion is the strongest of the three… even though for sure, you should be accounting for all aspects of your personal situation in order to plug your amounts into the categories appropriately.
For my personal situation, buying more Bitcoin doesn't make much sense. Each year, depending on my total savings, I pay
0.59%, 1.4% or 1.76% tax on every investment I own. Let's take 1.4%: that basically means I either need to sell 1.4% of my everything, or have enough cash to pay the taxes.
That doesn't sound good. See
El Salvador to airdrop $30 in Bitcoin to every adult citizen:
Prensa Latina notes El Salvador’s citizens will only receive the free Bitcoin after downloading the government-issued cryptocurrency wallet application.
A government controlled wallet sounds very bad
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