Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

blocks the rebound shot !

back to bed!

someone else block him at 7!

[UnDerDoG81]

No time to breath I guess. They playing their own pump and dump between 30 and 40k. Let em exhaust themselves and we keep going up in September.

[Mpamaegbu]

Ripe for a fall... Hopefully, no news shakes it off.

No time to breath I guess. They playing their own pump and dump between 30 and 40k. Let em exhaust themselves and we keep going up in September.

That's true. It has been in that range since last week.

[vapourminer]

Dancing around OPsec, but once we are able to reach a certain number of coins, sure we can spend and shave off from some of those coins along the way, but at the same time, each of us should attempt to establish the hanging onto a certain number of coins too.  

I will say even for myself, I have had some times in which mistakes were made - but I have retained some ongoing efforts to attempt to hang onto a certain number of coins (and sure that number of coins that I have been striving to hang onto has been adjusted through time), and a lot of this also brings us back to Gresham's law considerations, and if we are keeping some value in other kinds of assets (presumptively some of that is liquid, such as cash), then we should be attempting to figure out ways to spend from the other assets before spending from our bitcoin stash, especially when we seem to be in a dippening kind of stage..

Of course, if BTC prices are in an upwards and exponential price rise period, we might be able to carry ourselves a bit more like drunken sailors and perhaps end up spending a bit more of our BTC stash up to amounts that are within our consideration of how many coins that we are ok. with shaving off before going back to spending our less valuable assets/currencies such as cash.

pretty much as you say.

but there can come a time when you absolutely need some most or even ALL your corn sold. dont even feel bad about it. be thankful you have it. beads crushing debt, hospital bill that will send you to section 8 housing.

never sell btc unless its for funzies (ie  you have plenty of corn. maybe even look to replace that btc with fiat if it drops but dont depend on it. and usually i dont ever bother to re buy back on dips depending on what my reserves look like - although i do on occasion. frex last year i found the need started to keep a large cash position that i have on the "DONT MOVE THIS FIAT" account. and yes the emergency account that ONLY is used for that. i have kept as much as 3 years worth at the current burn rate (that burn rate does not include traditional regular income from ETF etc) on fiat in there. plus the regular burn rate is in large part covered my my tradition stuff.. 401s, etf, stocks, so even if btc crated tomorrow i *should* bbe set.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

If government clears out all the FUD and make it a clean way, I am sure this value of investment will be x10 the current investment in Crypto.

[Arriemoller]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/buck-naked-nude-sunbathers-fleeing-deer-fined-for-breaking-sydney-lockdown

 

There's something fishy here, it's the middle of the winter in Australia right now.
And did they get stung by nettles?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[UnDerDoG81]

That's true. It has been in that range since last week.

More like almost 6 weeks since May 19th.

[Torque]

Dominance

Meaningless

[cAPSLOCK]

"It's going up forever, Laura!" and the futility of Bitcoin day-trading

[This started as a one-paragraph reply to one of Jay's posts, but it grew uncontrollably, so I decided to post it on its own.]

As with any non-deterministic variable, Bitcoin price is volatile. And volatility means ups and downs. What many people fail to realize is that these short-term ups and downs are actually noise. Maybe not white noise, it's almost always tainted by various events like Elon's tweets, China's bans, futures' expiry dates and a million other things, but it's still essentially noise. And noise is a random process (i.e., a "roll of a dice" case, albeit a loaded dice at times). Would anyone in their right mind bet their Bitcoin stash on the roll of a dice? Would that really be a viable long-term winning strategy?

Short-term Bitcoin price action is noise (i.e., unpredictable in any practical sense), and yet there are day-traders ("daytarders", as I like to call them), who try to predict short-term price movement using all sorts of fancy tools and techniques, hoping to catch the market and make a profit. To me, it all feels like those mad "scientists", usually of poor theoretical scientific background, desperately trying to build a perpetual motion machine by using elaborate, complex contraptions, while the laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that this is not possible. To me, consistently profitable Bitcoin day-trading is almost as futile as trying to build a perpetual motion machine.

But the big question is this: why worry about the short-term volatility, when we can predict the long-term trend with pretty good accuracy? Long-term price action is much less noise and much more math and science, as has been repeatedly pointed out by Bitcoin advocates such as Andreas Antonopoulos, and as can be clearly seen by studying the protocol itself. Saylor has been screaming about it for some time now, I wonder how many understand him. Money is energy. Monetary energy. The laws of thermodynamics state that energy is conserved. You cannot have a working system when you have an energy leak. And what do banks of the fiat system do? They introduce leaks into their own monetary system "by design" (they call it inflation), and subsequently dilute their monetary units (fiat currencies) by having their money printers go brrrrrrrrrr... That's some "perpetual money machine" to the untrained eye, except that there's nothing perpetual about it. It's actually dissipative, repeatedly diluting and dissipating our wealth into piles of fiat paper money that are worth less and less each day goes by. This is the laws of thermodynamics in action, proving once more that "there is no free lunch" in the universe.

Bitcoin is the one and only monetary network in the history of mankind, which respects the laws of thermodynamics, as they pertain to monetary energy. But wait! Has this all become too complex? Is there too much math & science involved? Is there some complex equation we should all learn and understand? How about 1 BTC = 1 BTC? Is this simple enough? This, and the fact that there will only be at most 21,000,000 BTC in existence, ever. An equation and an upper bound -- these are the only two things necessary to predict the future behavior of this system. This is possible because it is a thermodynamically closed system. This has nothing to do with volatility, but with the long-term trend. It's like filtering out the noise and observing the resulting smooth, clean, upward curve. This is what the moving-average indicators do, which I consider about the only meaningful metrics when it comes to Bitcoin trend analysis.

As Saylor puts it: "It's a gift. Once in a thousand years do you actually see the invention of a fundamentally new thing, this is our once in a thousand years opportunity. You get to buy into it early, what would it be like if you owned 10% of all the electricity that's ever going to be pumped, or what if you could buy 1% of all the running water that's ever going to be pumped? That's what this is, it's 1% of all the fire that's ever going to be lit. You have a chance to buy a percentage of the future. Seems like a no-brainer to me."

"It's going up forever, Laura!" That's the only thing anyone really needs to know about Bitcoin.

Great post.  My favorite thing in that clip is when Saylor asks if you were able to would you buy 1% of all the fire, or all the water that would be pumped.  He is framing The Bitcoin Network correctly when he does that.  He realizes that RIGHT NOW he is able to buy 1% of the TOTAL base asset traded on what will be the Earth's primary monetary network, an invention as important as fire.  He has made his fortune by being able to see the really big shifts in the technological landscape and putting his money directly into those things.  And he has realized that NOTHING he has seen in his WHOLE LIFE is even CLOSE to the magnitude of this nascent network. 

Even the internet and the pocket super computer.  Which are the inventions that made him the fortune that allowed him to leapfrog all us early bitcoinners and become one of the richest humans in history (not yet, but he will be).

This is also why I will STILL risk my reputation and say that the "supercycle" is still in play.  In that clip he says he does not expect an 80% drawdown.  And I still agree with him.  I would imagine the short sighted Shin has already baked herself a cake after the 55% drop we HAVE seen.  I am sure in her mind that proved the validity of her question.  And I suppose it sort of did, though it did not invalidate Saylor's answer at all.  As you put it "Who in their right mind would roll the dice with their Bitcoin?"  Many have, and the battlefield is littered with the corpses, and scratched up lambos.

But I still see this pullback of the most recent breathtaking bull run as the first HUGE wave of a continuing series of waves on the ascent that we have all dreamed about.

Why the HELL are we still asking "Wen Moon"?  Are we THAT greedy?  Maybe a little.  But also we all know we still have not seen it yet.  Bitcoin WILL find a fairly stable price in our lifetimes.  And that will involve a very violent series of moves up in value.  We have not seen that really complete yet.

But we are about to. 

Carolina.

[Dabs]

i have kept as much as 3 years worth at the current burn rate (that burn rate does not include traditional regular income from ETF etc) on fiat in there. plus the regular burn rate is in large part covered my my tradition stuff.. 401s, etf, stocks, so even if btc crated tomorrow i *should* bbe set.

The "standard" that is often recommended is 3 to 6 months of current burn rate. For your fiat or cash emergency fund.

Interesting that you have 3 years. Although I have read about one traditional early retiree (or maybe he isn't retired yet), that claims he has 7 years worth as his emergency fund. I think that is too much, but hey, that's his comfort and safety level, and good on him for that.

Considering the bitcoin cycles, I'd say 3 years is good, 4 years might be better, but beyond that might be wasting your money unless you have more than you really need.

I mean, if that guy loses all income for 7 years, he should be good, and still have his capital or other investments intact.

[somac.]

Dominance

Meaningless

Yep, when 200 zero liquidity shitcoins are added per day.

[cAPSLOCK]

So here we are on the most horrible looking head and shoulders.  One that Perter Schiff has pointed out, if it comes to fruition, actually points at a bitcoin value of under $0.

Tee hee.



Eek.

But really?  What sense does this make today?

Look at the macro landscape.
Look at the news.
Look at interest rates.
Look at the world governments.
Look at the brrrrrrr.
Look at brave little El Salvador!
Look at the BIRTH of the lightning network.

And then think about what has to happen.  Some really really big holders will have to start selling just about right now.  I suppose if the governments of the world want to try one last time to stop bitcoin that right now would be one of their only chances.  And they would have to:

Coordinate to ban it, make it illegal, and or legislate the light out of it.
And then they would have to sell a LOT of it on to the retail markets to kick off the Schiff bear.

Which would mean they had to have bought a lot of it.

OK.  Lets say China, the US, the UK, the EU, Japan, and a few others met, and decided to execute this plan.  And some or all of those countries were going to SELL ALL THEIR BITCOIN THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING.  RIGHT NOW!

Ready! GO!!!



Heh.  See what I mean?  The ones that actually go THROUGH with that plan?  Are the losers.  And they know it.

It's way way past too late.

[Richy_T]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/buck-naked-nude-sunbathers-fleeing-deer-fined-for-breaking-sydney-lockdown

 

There's something fishy here, it's the middle of the winter in Australia right now.
And did they get stung by nettles?

Vitamin D is thought by some to be very important in protection against covid.

[Dabs]

if it comes to fruition, actually points at a bitcoin value of under $0.

Apologies, I have to stop you right there. Realistically, bitcoin will never go to $0. It may dip some more and we might possibly go down from here. But every order of magnitude, or ever decimal point in USD is literally 10 times more unlikely.

30k maybe?
3k unlikely.
300 very unlikely.
30 improbable.
3 virtually impossible.
0 not going to happen unless humanity is extinct and the internet is disconnected worldwide.

Any model, or prediction, that says the value is going under, maybe 10k or even 20k is fundamentally flawed, or wishful thinking. Anything that shows 0, there is something wrong with that chart/model.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

if it comes to fruition, actually points at a bitcoin value of under $0.

Apologies, I have to stop you right there. Realistically, bitcoin will never go to $0. It may dip some more and we might possibly go down from here. But every order of magnitude, or ever decimal point in USD is literally 10 times more unlikely.

30k maybe?
3k unlikely.
300 very unlikely.
30 improbable.
3 virtually impossible.
0 not going to happen unless humanity is extinct and the internet is disconnected worldwide.

Any model, or prediction, that says the value is going under, maybe 10k or even 20k is fundamentally flawed, or wishful thinking. Anything that shows 0, there is something wrong with that chart/model.

Obviously I agree with you entirely, and would point out that Schiff's assertion is that this H&S points to ZERO.  Not mine.

The most ominous thing about #Bitcoin's head and shoulders top pattern is that with a head near $65K and a neckline around $30K the pattern measures a move to zero. That's because the pattern projects a move below the next line that equals the move from the neckline to the head.

The point of my point is to point out the basic wrongness of that idea, and to suggest this is not going to be the big H&S that happened at the very top of Bitcoin.  The moment the bubble burst.  I believe rather it is MUCH more likely that this pullback will be the first of a repeating series that will decrease in magnitude while possibly increasing in frequency until we reach a much more stable price.

I think we are at the very beginning of the S-curve adoption explosion, and the price will follow.  And I *think* it will happen sooner than we think .(this time lol)

At the same time we are in a nasty place from a T/A perspective (from my limited understanding).  So whatever is going to happen, COULD be bad.  But I do not think so.

[vapourminer]

That classification is bs anyway. I posted about this before.
There are 25K blue whales in the world and, according to the link below, you need to have "just" 89 btc to be in the top 25K owners:
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Total whale numbers the world-about 75K, so the btc number you need to hit to be comparable with a whale (in bitcoiner numbers) is somewhere between 15 and 89, probably around 50, give or take. Maybe numbers are different now, but if anything, the distribution could be flatter.

interesting. yeah i liked to call myself plankton on that scale. but seriously we do need to redo that chart,

a "whale" to me indicates someone who has enough corn to move the market on occasion and 15-90 coins doesnt line up with that. you can sell 90 btc and it would basically be unnoticeable in the market.

now, if a sloth were a sea animal i would be all set. the sloth is my spirit animal (well a glonk is a better fit though).

https://flanimals.fandom.com/wiki/Glonk

[vapourminer]

i have kept as much as 3 years worth at the current burn rate (that burn rate does not include traditional regular income from ETF etc) on fiat in there. plus the regular burn rate is in large part covered my my tradition stuff.. 401s, etf, stocks, so even if btc crated tomorrow i *should* bbe set.

The "standard" that is often recommended is 3 to 6 months of current burn rate. For your fiat or cash emergency fund.

Interesting that you have 3 years. Although I have read about one traditional early retiree (or maybe he isn't retired yet), that claims he has 7 years worth as his emergency fund. I think that is too much, but hey, that's his comfort and safety level, and good on him for that.

Considering the bitcoin cycles, I'd say 3 years is good, 4 years might be better, but beyond that might be wasting your money unless you have more than you really need.

I mean, if that guy loses all income for 7 years, he should be good, and still have his capital or other investments intact.

1st my wife and i are retired so that may change ones definition of "emergency." i retired many years earlier than even my most optimistic goal. it allowed my wife to take an early one too but the years early for her were not as much as mine due to reasons. anyway thank you bitcoint.

i wouldnt really mind 4 years of emergency money (ie separate from any saving account one may have, as i said emergency money is not used for TVs new computers toys etc. its there for, well, emergencies that could serious fuck up your future.

but i settled on three because i have enough passive income through traditional stuff that it takes a load off what i need in the emergency fund.

three years even in a bear market will allow some halfway decent price point to be waited for selling if i need to (yes less of course) as i would have plenty of time to sell what was needed before it gets really low (like a local bottom). being able to watch an 80% drop and just wait it out because i know i can wait for a somewhat decent price (as opposed to a mindrust price but no guarantees of course) helps me sleep at night.