Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714795237]

1714795237

[1714795237]

1714795237

[1714795237]

1714795237

[JayJuanGee]

First of all.  Your quoting skills suck.

You need to go to quoting school for the basics.. and probably use the preview button to verify how your quotes are showing on the screen before you post.

I tried to fix your quotes.. but its a bit confusing for me, too.. so I might have not adequately clarified what you had already screwed up.

Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...

I agree..

So,... that means you like.it right? 😉

I did not blanketly agree about any of your seemingly complicated approach, and it appears ripe for dangers that I already contextualized in my earlier response.

of course, for you particularly, the approach might work in order to satisfy your desires to dabble and attempt to beat the DCA averages.. so I don't have any problem with trying to see if you might be capable of accomplishing that on a consistent and regular basis, even if it seems to be a bit of a fools errand.

but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration,  because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.

It sounds good

So,... yep that sounds positive! 👌

You are coming off as a disingenuine fuck if you are clipping my quotes, because I am not blanketly agreeing to your complexity, but I may well be agreeing that you could give your complexity a try to see if you can accomplish consistent returns.. including doing it over a whole cycle.. perhaps.. or at least saying why your doing it in one part of the cycle makes more sense than doing it in the other part of the cycle.

the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.

I agree that in theory that sounds doable..

This all sounds positive!

 Again.  context.  I did not give any blanket agreements to what appears likely to be nonsense, but it may just fit your personality or whatever.  Good luck to your wife.. she's the one that likely needs it more.

And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.

I agree

WOOHOO!.

Getting old, Copetech.

BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?

TLDR: none of us  (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?

Dear God! I Hope Not!
#NoHomo

You should not conclude otherwise in terms of anyone here actually caring about you.

Thank You J1G for taking the time to read my TLDR ponderances!
Sounds like all systems go, glowing reviews to me! (Which surprises me, for some reason I thought you'd take a more negative stance)

If you are reading and quoting what I say out of context, then there is ONLY so much that I can do in order to save you from yourself... in other words, to the extent that you are genuine, you likely do not want to be saved from yourself.  I am having my doubts about whether you are even going to try the systems that you are proposing or to attempt to measure and learn from what you are saying.. you seem to be lacking in discipline, focus and even willingness to sufficiently tether yourself to real facts rather than what you wished the facts were.

For example, sometimes if you tweak some kind of seemingly small part of a system because you believe that you are smarter, but you don't even realize that you are tweaking it or what it was for, then you put yourself in way greater danger than if you were merely attempting to be strategic and purposeful about your tweaks in order to try to learn from them.   

You seem to have way too many areas that you want to tweak and then gloss over the whole matter, which comes off as reckless and gambling, so I really do no have high hopes for your being able to even match DCAing returns over a long period of time, even if you may well be able to match and exceed them in the short term (whether you lie in your reporting or not would be another question.  Gamblers like to lie because they will only selectively report which portions that they want rather than really attempting to grapple with the good, bad and the ugly).

Even the popcorn shrimp can serve as shark bait.
🙃

This is a public thread, so sometimes it can be helpful to attempt to clarify some matters... even if you might be appearing like you are devolving more and more into a potential lost cause.

[Dabs]

i have kept as much as 3 years worth at the current burn rate (that burn rate does not include traditional regular income from ETF etc) on fiat in there. plus the regular burn rate is in large part covered my my tradition stuff.. 401s, etf, stocks, so even if btc crated tomorrow i *should* bbe set.

The "standard" that is often recommended is 3 to 6 months of current burn rate. For your fiat or cash emergency fund.

Interesting that you have 3 years. Although I have read about one traditional early retiree (or maybe he isn't retired yet), that claims he has 7 years worth as his emergency fund. I think that is too much, but hey, that's his comfort and safety level, and good on him for that.

Considering the bitcoin cycles, I'd say 3 years is good, 4 years might be better, but beyond that might be wasting your money unless you have more than you really need.

I mean, if that guy loses all income for 7 years, he should be good, and still have his capital or other investments intact.

1st my wife and i are retired so that may change ones definition of "emergency." i retired many years earlier than even my most optimistic goal. it allowed my wife to take an early one too but the years early for her were not as much as mine due to reasons. anyway thank you bitcoint.

i wouldnt really mind 4 years of emergency money (ie separate from any saving account one may have, as i said emergency money is not used for TVs new computers toys etc. its there for, well, emergencies that could serious fuck up your future.

I would define emergency and the money stuffed into such an account as what is your actual annual expenses, regardless of whether you are retired or not.

If you spend approximately 40k USD per year, and you have 120k in your emergency fund account, then you have 3 years. Having 160k should give you some peace of mind.

The one dude I mentioned had something like 100k USD expenses every year, he has maybe a 4 children or something, and he saved up 700k as his emergency fund (and has a lot more than that invested in traditional fiat investments, probably close to $3 million, but I'm not sure of that) ... I don't think he's a bitcoiner at all, but have not researched if did anything recently to change that.

I'm pretty sure if they did, they would categorize bitcoin has "put money you can afford to lose" or "limit to 1% allocation" or something like that. They see it as gambling. We (royal we) might see it as an asymmetric bet.

[xhomerx10]

blocks the rebound shot !

back to bed!

someone else block him at 7!

 I couldn't wake up that early but I'm working nights now so I should be able to provide some Buddy-blocking assistance in the wee hours of the morning this week.  

[sirazimuth]

....

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/buck-naked-nude-sunbathers-fleeing-deer-fined-for-breaking-sydney-lockdown

 

first...

.... but I'm working nights now .....

I'm jealous bro. My sleeping-in days and higher payrate ended this past May.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Sentiment turning bullishish?

[cAPSLOCK]

Sentiment turning bullishish?

This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding.

I truly hope so.

I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered".  Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom.  So there's that. lol.

[Copetech]

First of all.  Your quoting skills suck.

You need to go to quoting school for the basics.. and probably use the preview button to verify how your quotes are showing on the screen before you post.

I tried to fix your quotes.. but its a bit confusing for me, too.. so I might have not adequately clarified what you had already screwed up.

Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...

I agree..

So,... that means you like.it right? 😉

I did not blanketly agree about any of your seemingly complicated approach, and it appears ripe for dangers that I already contextualized in my earlier response.

of course, for you particularly, the approach might work in order to satisfy your desires to dabble and attempt to beat the DCA averages.. so I don't have any problem with trying to see if you might be capable of accomplishing that on a consistent and regular basis, even if it seems to be a bit of a fools errand.

but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration,  because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.

It sounds good

So,... yep that sounds positive! 👌

You are coming off as a disingenuine fuck if you are clipping my quotes, because I am not blanketly agreeing to your complexity, but I may well be agreeing that you could give your complexity a try to see if you can accomplish consistent returns.. including doing it over a whole cycle.. perhaps.. or at least saying why your doing it in one part of the cycle makes more sense than doing it in the other part of the cycle.

the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.

I agree that in theory that sounds doable..

This all sounds positive!

 Again.  context.  I did not give any blanket agreements to what appears likely to be nonsense, but it may just fit your personality or whatever.  Good luck to your wife.. she's the one that likely needs it more.

And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.

I agree

WOOHOO!.

Getting old, Copetech.

BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?

TLDR: none of us  (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?

Dear God! I Hope Not!
#NoHomo

You should not conclude otherwise in terms of anyone here actually caring about you.

Thank You J1G for taking the time to read my TLDR ponderances!
Sounds like all systems go, glowing reviews to me! (Which surprises me, for some reason I thought you'd take a more negative stance)

If you are reading and quoting what I say out of context, then there is ONLY so much that I can do in order to save you from yourself... in other words, to the extent that you are genuine, you likely do not want to be saved from yourself.  I am having my doubts about whether you are even going to try the systems that you are proposing or to attempt to measure and learn from what you are saying.. you seem to be lacking in discipline, focus and even willingness to sufficiently tether yourself to real facts rather than what you wished the facts were.

For example, sometimes if you tweak some kind of seemingly small part of a system because you believe that you are smarter, but you don't even realize that you are tweaking it or what it was for, then you put yourself in way greater danger than if you were merely attempting to be strategic and purposeful about your tweaks in order to try to learn from them.  

You seem to have way too many areas that you want to tweak and then gloss over the whole matter, which comes off as reckless and gambling, so I really do no have high hopes for your being able to even match DCAing returns over a long period of time, even if you may well be able to match and exceed them in the short term (whether you lie in your reporting or not would be another question.  Gamblers like to lie because they will only selectively report which portions that they want rather than really attempting to grapple with the good, bad and the ugly).

Even the popcorn shrimp can serve as shark bait.
🙃

This is a public thread, so sometimes it can be helpful to attempt to clarify some matters... even if you might be appearing like you are devolving more and more into a potential lost cause.

I humbly apologize J1G, I had various factors come together in the real world (not at all related to bitcoin) which gave cause to celebration, and woke this morning to find a bottle of Vodka had disappeared some time in the night and both my wife and myself were groggy as we woke an hour after the alarms gave up... (possibly all related)

That and I just might derive some sick pleasure from winding peoples up and watching them go off

BUT! I have taken in all of your ACTUAL evaluation & valid input, and I appreciate your advisings and impartment of wisdom gained by experiencings. And most of all, I am sorry for my drunken attempts at poking the bear.

Thank You for being you.

-Cope

(Edit: Hangovers can't type and autocorrect just makes it worse)
(Edited Edit: Ditto)
(Sheesh! Third times the charm, maybe now it will be sensible)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Sentiment turning bullishish?

This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding.

I truly hope so.

I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered".  Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom.  So there's that. lol.

I've had my share of that too, so I know exactly what you mean :-)

[Mpamaegbu]

That's true. It has been in that range since last week.

More like almost 6 weeks since May 19th.

You're right, my bad. I had to closely look at the chart again.

[sirazimuth]

.......
I humbly apologize J1G, ...... I appreciate your advisings and impartment of wisdom gained by experiencings. And most of all, I am sorry for my drunken attempts at poking the bear.

Thank You for being you.

-Cope
.....

I try to make it a habit not to hit the post button till the next morning (after having a few the night before and getting a little "loose" on the kb).
Then upon reading my previous nights drunken drivel, I'm like "jaeeezus...wtf was I thinking?! "...delete.


oh, and don't be brown-nosing Jay.... it shows wobro weakness (or should I say "weakenings"?), just sayin....

[Copetech]

.......
I humbly apologize J1G, ...... I humbly apologize J1G, ...... I appreciate your advisings and impartment of wisdom gained by experiencings. And most of all, I am sorry for my drunken attempts at poking the bear.

Thank You for being you.

-Cope
.....

oh, and don't be brown-nosing Jay.... it shows wobro weakness, just sayin....

LOL

Just because I apologized doesn't mean I didn't laugh my ass off!
or that it wouldn't happen again #nohomo






(Edit: Emphasis Change)

[cAPSLOCK]

Sentiment turning bullishish?

This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding.

I truly hope so.

I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered".  Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom.  So there's that. lol.

I've had my share of that too, so I know exactly what you mean :-)

35000 looks like it wants to be a challenge.

[modrobert]

Sentiment turning bullishish?

This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding.

I truly hope so.

I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered".  Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom.  So there's that. lol.

I have a similar problem, this one is hard to understand/predict at the moment, one more trip down to test support at $30k or are we done?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

....

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/buck-naked-nude-sunbathers-fleeing-deer-fined-for-breaking-sydney-lockdown

 

first...

.... but I'm working nights now .....

I'm jealous bro. My sleeping-in days and higher payrate ended this past May.

 I'd rather be relaxing at home for less money in this heat but at least I can sneak outside to cool off when working nights.  I'm pretty sure this will be my last summer at the higher payrate

[Copetech]

Good Call!


(Grrr! Blocked images are annoying!)

[WaltKitty]

Salutations.

I suppose I should start off with the obligatory first post statement of I am long-time watcher of this eclectic thread. It can be quite entertaining at times. In regards to the recent price action and wall watching or whatever it is that is done here. It seems as if Wall Street has already determined what Bitcoins value is going to be with a volatility ratio comparison to gold. I am not quite certain how I feel about this, especially coming from JPMorgan. Literally in my opinion the belly of the beast. Any comments or thoughts from the esteemed members of this community?

Panigirtzoglou and his team have our call of the day, giving bitcoin a fair value of $23,000 to $35,000 over the medium term, based on the relationship between its volatility and gold’s, as the crypto faces new headwinds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-bitcoin-is-worth-says-jpmorgan-as-crypto-faces-this-summer-headwind-11624533578