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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
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8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26490628 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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June 28, 2021, 11:41:02 PM

... who sold at the bottom?

... same sheeple buying Musk's doge shit at the top?

most here never admit to any selling...unless it is for a ranch or a lake (or next 4-5-6 years of income)  Grin
What bots are doing is irrelevant.
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June 28, 2021, 11:43:08 PM
Merited by bitebits (1)

And the night begins to make things clearer
'cause the fire in the sky is burning us alive
There's a man on the street
With no shoes and no food to eat
While the man in the banker's suit is promoted higher

Here we go again with the war
Dollar drops oil prices soar
It's all part of their fucked up plan
Take cover

'cause the world is on fire
Full of greed and desire
We're living in denial
While the world is on fire

From the watch tower
I see a child's hope fading
In the name of their god
They even kill their own babies
From the Book we read
From the pages we bled
'cause the man in the religious suit
Is a paid liar

Here we go again with the war
Dollar drops oil prices soar
It's all part of their fucked up plan
Take cover

'cause the world is on fire
Full of greed and desire
We're living in denial
While the world is on fire

The truth shall set you free
But the man in the business suit is sworn
To hide it from thee
It's all about money
It's all about power
From the beginning of the age
Slavery's been all the rage
The world is on fire


World On Fire
--Barbed Wire Dolls
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June 28, 2021, 11:50:30 PM

What bots are doing is irrelevant.







 Angry Angry Angry
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June 29, 2021, 12:01:36 AM


Explanation
Copetech
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June 29, 2021, 12:44:08 AM
Last edit: June 29, 2021, 03:01:51 AM by Copetech

[ edited out]

No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood.



Serious question, if it's not too much of an Op Sec violation,  what is your primary spoken language? Makes it easier to predict the phraseology that may be misconstrued if I know what you're accustomed to.
Personally, I speak American English with a slight southern accent, but I think I am understanding your humor and random grumpy old manishness just fine... trying to nail down the disconnect, ya understand... 🤔



*page break*
So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)

Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus.



See, there's that grumpining I was mentioning....



So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.

Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up -



You're losing me here, or maybe I lost you?
I'm not talking about a "Stop Loss" or any kind of Leveraging... I'm talking about a "Stop/Limit Buy Order" as opposed to a market order. By my understanding it just a means of placing an order at a specific price, higher or lower than the current market price, and as soon as, or rather if the market price reaches that level, the bid is activated and filled if there are any asks on the book at that price. For the small amounts I'm dealing with, I can pretty much rely on my order being filled at the exact limit price I set as long as the market price reaches that level. If I was dealing in larger sums, I may need to extend out to a range limit rather than a specific price, but have not gotten to that level yet. Not only does this buying method give me better exchange fee rates, but it also makes it simpler because I don't have to time the market to the price I want, I just set it and walk away while the market comes to me.



[ edited out]
In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not.  Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.



Yea, I think we're talking 2 different languages here. Not seeing where there is any loss? If I hit my lower than market buy points 75% of the time, I am GREATLY increasing the speed at which my Sats are stackening! And if you bother reading forward in the post before you call the other 25% missed...? Is that it? Do you not read the whole idea before you start posting interjections? Do you also spend all your time in a real world conversation thinking about what you're gonna say when the person shuts up rather than listening to what they are actually saying? Not a great conversation strategy that...



If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around.  Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).


You're right, in the end I'm gonna do what I decide to do, but at the current state of things, I'm not sure I have 10+ years to accumulate a decent BTC stack if I don't maximize the volume acquired by every penny I invest. You like to go back to the same accusatory language about "gambling inclinations" but in this conversation, I don't understand the gamble in setting my buys to aim for the lowest price each week, especially if you've read ahead of your current interjection to see that in this system I am leaving any missed orders in place to catch future coins in a case of big dippening... worst case scenario after a 4 year cycle, if I really suck at reading the conditions and missed to the low side 50% of the time, I have a significant lump sum to dump in at the new low after a parabolic crash. And if I REALLY suck at guessing the lows, you'd think I would have missed to the high side of the weekly lows about half the time and still accumulated a lot of Sats that I would not have gotten if I'd always bought at the higher market price.
So where's the disconnect here? Am I misunderstanding the nature of Stop/Limit Buy orders? Or are you misunderstanding the terms I'm using? Or are you just not reading what I typed and assuming I'm just a dumbfuck gambler looking for a get rich quick scheme and therefore in need of pontificating preachery?
Seriously, I want to understand.



Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.

If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.  



This is the point where I think you have JUST read this for the VERY First Time AS you are putting together your interjections. Didn't I say something about "putting away that high horse" back in the very beginning?
*reads back*
Yup thought so.
So for clarity's sake... Read My Words, Not your Assumptions
I am NOT touching ANY coins previously bought, at no point is a Sale ever being entered into the order book.
What I am talking about doing is placing my weekly DCA purchases on the order book at the best price I can reasonably expect to actually get that week rather than just blindly saying "gimme this much money's worth of coins right now regardless of current price or direction of movement in the market"
So, like this week... price seems to be undulating between 31.5k and 34.5k. I can't be certain it's going to go all the way back down to 31.5k but I'm pretty certain it will be below the current $34.6k. So I'd probably set this week's buy at about $32.8k. Pretty good chance I fill that order this week and if not, there's a really good chance it gets filled with in the next 4 years! Right? So over the course of 4 years, If I'm buying $100 every week and getting those results every week, that's $500 more worth of bitcoins even if it never goes above the $35k range! Where am I gambling?




I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so.  So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.  



You do understand what I mean by a "Stop/Limit Buy" right? So by placing stop/Limit orders, I save on exchange fees, and I don't have to spend all week stuck to the chart looking for the best time to buy at market price.
I probably still will, because I like watching the way the candles form and checking depth charts to see if I can recognize indicators of how things are moving at different times... but that's just to sharpen skillz, not actually doing any transactions.




So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle..



And quite a bit behind you and many others who had the time and capital to get started on this year's ago when prices were in 3 & 4 digit figures... So yeah,, it looks like it could reach into high 6 digits and by the dreams of some,, maybe even 7 figures, but what if? What if the mass adoptions and corporate interests cause it to flatten out and stagnate in the high 5 figures? What if this is the last 4 year cycle before all volatility settles out?? I want to maximize my value of every meager penny I can currently afford to invest.. And so I'm asking you guys "What holes do you see in this plan?" And you rage about stop losses, leverage, and gambling?? Yea, we agree, but I'm asking about THIS plan... did you read it?



[ edited out]
so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated.



OK, Yes, the remote chance that I really suck at placing Stop/Limit orders could possibly cause me to end up with less coins if the market never goes anywhere but up. Good point and taken to heart.



 For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.



OK Yes, I also agree that average Joe Q Public generally sucks at anything that doesn't involve sitting on the couch randomly changing channels and stuffing chips in their mouths until they die too young, too fat, and WAY too broke... not generally the type that succeeds at investing and I'm sure you see more than your share of those coming and going to see what this BitCoinCrypto thingy is all about... I give you some leverage there and understand. BTW, did you read the plan I was asking about?
I am married, for 16 years to the same woman. Have my house and 4 cars paid for, no kids, and I'm not excessively overweight or unhealthy. Yea it's a public forum, but I was asking what you thought about the merits of my plan that I'm pondering, not that guys...



Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...

I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not... and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.



So you are starting to catch on to what I'm talking about. So going back to my easy figures, 20-30% gains if we're $100/week over 4 years makes the difference between $20,800 invested and $26,000 invested. (Averaging out to 25%) but if we look further into the system and see that all of those missed orders stay on the books and are therefore filled every time the market dips... doesn't it seem like more than 20-30% would end up being filled? Assuming the market continues to behave as it has with volatility and swings up & down of course. If it's nothing but a parabolic uppity climb, sure I may end up with a lot more orders on the books than filled, but in that case, I'd have a whole lot more total value than I'm currently planning for and I'd still have all the dollars in those orders to lump sum in.

But yes that's one market case that the system likely fails on and I will have to keep that in mind.



but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration,  because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.

It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes.



Duly noted and appreciated.




Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,
Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.



Yes! My goal Certainly is Buy & HODL. And all I'm trying to do is increase my odds of buying the most possible with my allotted weekly investment by aiming for the best price and learning to sharpen my aiming skillz.

the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.

I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis.  



Thank You, yes, if I'm gonna do this, I want to dedicate myself to doing it to my very best ability. That's kinda how I roll.



Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).



Yup, glad I'm not that guy! 😜


And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices.



So yea, Mass adoption theories are moot unless I can find ways to simplify and articulate. Good point!



Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.

Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too.  Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you.



Yea, hadn't thought about diversifying my exchanges, but seems like that would magnify complexity and possibly even increase risk exposure... I think I'll keep my limited faith in the one big one until I see any reason not to....


BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?

I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point...



Thank You for taking the time to read and evaluate Jay, even if you do come across as a grumpy old fuck half the time! 🙃


TLDR: none of us  (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?


And once again, I certainly hope that's true! (#nohomo)


(Hopefully quote format worked out better, kinda complicated on a little smartphone)

(Edit: I Hate Autocorrect!)
Biodom
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June 29, 2021, 12:51:50 AM

^^ This new fella has a mindrusting potential...in eventuality.
Although, to me, even M. Saylor has that potential as he bought his stash too fast and, essentially, or margin (at least in part).
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June 29, 2021, 12:55:13 AM

JJG ... looks like you got competition! Cheesy Cheesy

Anyway.... in other parts of lost d!ck eating timeline happenings that should have happened and will never happen...  Roll Eyes  Sad

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June 29, 2021, 01:01:27 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2021, 01:51:56 AM
Last edit: June 29, 2021, 08:24:30 PM by Hueristic



Looks like this is the original source.

https://www.cryptouniverse.at/shop/antminer-s9-bulk-refurbished-fob-shenzhen/
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June 29, 2021, 02:01:27 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2021, 02:05:03 AM



Dude...
I think the garage is full. Might wanna hold off on opening more boxes from China till you can get some racks built. Jest sayin'

-Cope
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 29, 2021, 02:15:51 AM



phils adding to his farms i see.

and man those stacks of (presumably very heavy) boxes ready to fall over and damage the asics? man what a risk.

oh yeah to the peeps too. i guess.
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June 29, 2021, 02:20:33 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5)

Have people on the internet lost all capability to think rationally?

I keep reading shit like "The hash rate has dropped significantly, so yeah all Chinese mining has stopped. Miners---they're leaving China."

No, idiot. It could also mean that mining machines in China were just intentionally turned off. Which also implies that they can just as easily be turned back on.

In that scenario, you wouldn't know the difference, nor would you be able to confirm or deny.  Roll Eyes
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June 29, 2021, 02:34:19 AM

JJG ... looks like you got competition! Cheesy Cheesy

Anyway.... in other parts of lost d!ck eating timeline happenings that should have happened and will never happen...  Roll Eyes  Sad



If there is a BTC heavan and a BTC hell.

Then Macfee will be eat that dick over and over and over.

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June 29, 2021, 02:43:47 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)



phils adding to his farms i see.

and man those stacks of (presumably very heavy) boxes ready to fall over and damage the asics? man what a risk.

oh yeah to the peeps too. i guess.

From what experiences I've had in large shipments of technology, (not nearly that large obviously)
Usually comes in palletized, double-stacked, and strapped. As you breakdown the pallets, empty boxes get stacked high against the wall and pallets get stacked outside the dock door. Machines/equipment is assembled and tested and neatly lined up for deployment. Boxes are kept available to repack any damaged or defective units which get shipped back for credit or exchange. Remaining boxes are then broken down, baled, and sold for recycling weight. But all that can wait until equipment is deployed and deadlines are met.

Granted my experiences have been with b2b sales and installation of business tech or paper processing equipment, but I imagine that nuts and bolts of the operation would be pretty similar.
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June 29, 2021, 02:52:24 AM

and man those stacks of (presumably very heavy) boxes ready to fall over and damage the asics? man what a risk.

oh yeah to the peeps too. i guess.

My question is who the hell would keep the boxes?

Edit ah: I see someone answered. So this is probably assembly of a mine, not the shipping out of a mine. Makes sense with S9's.
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June 29, 2021, 03:01:35 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2021, 03:03:47 AM

[ edited out]

No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood.

Serious question, if it's not too much of an Op Sec violation,  what is your primary spoken language? Makes it easier to predict the phraseology that may be misconstrued if I know what you're accustomed to.
Personally, I speak American English with a slight southern accent, but I think I am understanding your humor and random grumpy old manishness just fine... trying to nail down the disconnect, ya understand... 🤔

Overall, you should be able to figure out what I am saying or just ask.  It seems pretty clear that I already asserted multiple times that if you are  overly complexifying matters (connected with your desires to attempt to beat a pure DCA accumulation strategy by including selling in that), then it may well not work out, but do what you like.

I suggested repeated times to you and to other members here that you better fucking reach and exceed your BTC accumulation goals before you start trying to play around with accumulating more through selling.. in other words, you better have excess to sell in case the price does not come back down to the point that you sold or that you do not give any shits if the price comes back down.. in other words,  selling is not a way to accumulate BTC, if accumulation happens to be your goal rather than having gambling as your goal.


*page break*
So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)

Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus.

See, there's that grumpining I was mentioning....

So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.

Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up -

You're losing me here, or maybe I lost you?
I'm not talking about a "Stop Loss" or any kind of Leveraging... I'm talking about a "Stop/Limit Buy Order" as opposed to a market order. By my understanding it just a means of placing an order at a specific price, higher or lower than the current market price, and as soon as, or rather if the market price reaches that level, the bid is activated and filled if there are any asks on the book at that price.

Ok. sounds like I was misunderstanding you, and I believe that it was your use of "stop"

If you are merely attempting to strategically place your weekly buy order, then that sounds like something that should not really hurt you and within the week you  might be able to try to time lower prices or at least get a little bit of a lower average buy for that particular week so long as you are not too greedy... and that would just be placing a limited buy order, but I would try not to be extreme with it (such as the place where you would put a stop).. but sure you could look at the charts and kind of guess a reasonably low price that is not too greedy and then try to get your buy filled in or around that relatively lower price.


For the small amounts I'm dealing with, I can pretty much rely on my order being filled at the exact limit price I set as long as the market price reaches that level. If I was dealing in larger sums, I may need to extend out to a range limit rather than a specific price, but have not gotten to that level yet. Not only does this buying method give me better exchange fee rates, but it also makes it simpler because I don't have to time the market to the price I want, I just set it and walk away while the market comes to me.

I agree.  No problema - as long as you are not trying to be too greedy with the amount that you set, but even if the BTC price goes up after you had set your order, you could decide to just buy at the higher price, if you conclude that the price is not very likely to come back down within the week.


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In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not.  Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.

Yea, I think we're talking 2 different languages here. Not seeing where there is any loss? If I hit my lower than market buy points 75% of the time, I am GREATLY increasing the speed at which my Sats are stackening! And if you bother reading forward in the post before you call the other 25% missed...? Is that it?

I thought that you were referring to using margin or leverage..


Do you not read the whole idea before you start posting intersections? Do you also spend all your time in a real world conversation thinking about what you're gonna say when the person shuts up rather than listening to what they are actually saying? Not a great conversation strategy that...

I doubt that we need to get into this.  Either you want to interact or you don't.. make up your mind.

If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around.  Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).

You're right, in the end I'm gonna do what I decide to do, but at the current state of things, I'm not sure I have 10+ years to accumulate a decent BTC stack if I don't maximize the volume acquired by every penny I invest.

If you say that you have 25-35 years, then are you changing your mind?  The concept of how much time do you have or want to have attempts to contemplate a kind of retirement date, so surely some people are not really able to say fuck you if they have not reached an official retirement date because they are not able to collect their pension, 401k, social security or various kinds of medical or other cashflows that might be age dependent or if connected with a job years of service dependent or both.  

Of course, if you are able to generate enough income to make up for those various cashflow streams until some of them might kick in, then your date would come much sooner.  So for example some people might proclaim that they are going to retire 5 years early, but they are thinking about ways that their cashflow would be able to fill in during those years before those other cashflows start to come in.

Other people might add up the various benefits of their pension, 401k, social security or various kinds of medical or other cashflows and conclude that if they want to maintain anything close to their hoped for or accustomed standard of living they are going to need to have a certain amount stuck away.. and sure this is where the bitcoin part could end up serving well.

In 2013, I had been using $1 million as a kind of general guide for someone who might want to both proclaim fuck you early and/or to supplement whatever income that might end up coming in when reaching retirement ages whether that is in the upper 50s or even going into the late 60s depending on what kinds of options might be available.  Sure of course, some people feel that they cannot rely hardly at all on the various other streams of income so they would have to completely attempt to support themselves on the target amount of accumulated value in something like bitcoin, and like I mentioned in 2013, I had tentatively used $1 million as a starting entry point to fuck you status, but even with the passage of time and ever since some of the crazy-ass money printing from 2020 that we can recognize as going to cause quite a bit of inflation, I had concluded that starting with $2 million might have become more widely relatable, even though there probably still are some people who can make $1 million work for them for their entry level fuck you status.

So you cannot necessarily rush getting to fuck you status because you don't want to be gambling, but if you have ways to attempt to preserve your principle and to attempt to keep your money working for you reasonably well, then you may well be able to cut in half the time to get to fuck you status from what had traditionally taken 20-30 years or more to achieve and some people still never reached it, but sometimes you might be able to reach fuck you status much quicker if you are not putting your principle at risk and you are invested in something like bitcoin - that is designed to pump forever...

But in any event, accumulating BTC through a couple of full 4-year cycles could well put you in a very good place.  I already did some charts on this if you want to see them again in terms of how many coins you would need to have to be at fuck you status now as compared with the passage of time, and sure now you need around 150BTC, but in 2042, you will only need a
bit over 10 BTC... and of course, with the passage of time, we may well see that the quantity of BTC required may come down.. just depending on how this bad boy does.

See this post from three days ago.

or see this post - from about 4 hours later


You like to go back to the same accusatory language about "gambling inclinations" but in this conversation, I don't understand the gamble in setting my buys to aim for the lowest price each week, especially if you've read ahead of your current interjection to see that in this system I am leaving any missed orders in place to catch future coins in a case of big dippening... worst case scenario after a 4 year cycle, if I really suck at reading the conditions and missed to the low side 50% of the time,

 Well hopefully, you set your limited sell order for the week, and if it does not fill, then you just buy at whatever is the price at the end of the week... but again.. it might not matter too much either way if you just leave those orders or you buy like you are supposed to each week.

If you have lump sum investing, buying on dips and DCA.. the dca portion is supposed to be regular without fucking around.

If you want to increase your buying on dip allowance or if you come across a sum of money that you want to lump sum invest, but you want to wait for a dip, then those are choices that might work out o.k. or they might not.

Let's say that every month you have an extra $1k that you can buy bitcoin with, and you decide to just say fuck it.. $250 a week and I am not going to think about it.

But then once or twice a year you get an extra $6k lump sum that you can spend on bitcoin.  You could split that three ways into your three kinds of ways of buying or you can attempt to be more strategic about all or part of it.  It's a free country.


I have a significant lump sum to dump in at the new low after a parabolic crash. And if I REALLY suck at guessing the lows, you'd think I would have missed to the high side of the weekly lows about half the time and still accumulated a lot of Sats that I would not have gotten if I'd always bought at the higher market price.

 I cannot really know about you. . You seem a bit inclined to gamble and to overly want to tweak.

So where's the disconnect here? Am I misunderstanding the nature of Stop/Limit Buy orders? Or are you misunderstanding the terms I'm using?

Stops are different from limited buy orders.

So if you are just using limited buy orders, I have no problem with that.  If you are using stops, I believe that those are problematic to be using, even though some other guys swear by the use of stops.

I am not going to use them for reasons that I already described.


Or are you just not reading what I typed and assuming I'm just a dumbfuck gambler looking for a get rich quick scheme and therefore in need of pontificating preachery?
Seriously, I want to understand.

 No need to take matters personally.  Either you want to attempt to clarify or not.. We do not need to continue to discuss the matter.

Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.

If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.  

This is the point where I think you have JUST read this for the VERY First Time AS you are putting together your interjections. Didn't I say something about "putting away that high horse" back in the very beginning?
*reads back*
Yup thought so.
So for charity's sake... Read My Words, Not your Assumptions
I am NOT touching ANY coins previously bought, at no point is a Sale ever being entered into the order book.

Great.  Don't be fucking selling until you reach your accumulation goals first... glad that we got that clear, Copetech (and any other similarly situated person who might be considering the matter).


What I am talking about doing is placing my weekly DCA purchases on the order book at the best price I can reasonably expect to actually get that week rather than just blindly saying "gimme this much money's worth of coins right now regardless of current price or direction of movement in the market"

Right.  Gotcha.


So, like this week... price seems to be undulating between 31.5k and 34.5k. I can't be certain it's going to go all the way back down to 31.5k but I'm pretty certain it will be below the current $34.6k. So I'd probably set this week's buy at about $32.8k. Pretty good chance I fill that order this week and if not, there's a really good chance it gets filled with in the next 4 years! Right?

 For me, filling this week, means filling this week, so if the current price is $34,600, you could just buy right away at $34,600 and get it out of the way, or maybe if I was in the accumulation mode, I would see if I might be able to fill it in the lower $34,100 arena.. .but if it does not fill in a few days, then maybe I would just buy at whatever the price would be at the time.  Sure, we just came up from $32,500 about 17 hours ago, but personally I am only so willing to attempt to strategize with my weekly buys.  That's why you have the buying on dip category that should already be set up to take care of those kinds of matters of the BTC price dippening.


So over the course of 4 years, If I'm buying $100 every week and getting those results every week, that's $500 more worth of bitcoins even if it never goes above the $35k range! Where am I gambling?

sounds like gambling to me.  You might get lucky and you might not... and that is why you should be carrying out your DCAs.. and yeah, maybe you buy 1/3 of the DCA amount at the beginning of the week, and then wait to see what the price is going to do and then you end up buying the other 2/3 of it before the week is over and you have the next week.  If you don't have enough money, and you want to buy on dips with portions of it, then you have to change how you allot your allowance.. and maybe allocate more towards buying on dips...

If you have such dip inclinations, then maybe you have dip orders that go all the way down to $20k at every $1,000.. starting at $32k or something like that.  If you made each of those $1k, then that would cost you $12k of dollars to retain that level of buying on dip allocations.. so of course, you could adjust to your budget, so if you have satisfied your buying on dip allocation, then when you get your $100 per week, just fucking buy, and don't be trying to fuck around with it very much beyond maybe minimally to see if you could catch a 1% or 2% dip to perhaps cover your fees.. or something that is not overly fucking around with your wife's money...  
 

I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so.  So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.  
You do understand what I mean by a "Stop/Limit Buy" right?

 Apparently not, but you clarified it later.


So by placing stop/Limit orders, I save on exchange fees, and I don't have to spend all week stuck to the chart looking for the best time to buy at market price.

that is called a limited buy order so long as you are not using the "stop" function, but there is likely a capacity to employ a stop as well if you like, so better just refer to it as a buy order or a limited buy order.  No problem with that.

Like you said, limited buy orders have lower fees than market buy orders and they also allow you to attempt be a bit strategic about their placement and yeah you do not have to watch the price all day (and especially all night) long when you are supposed to be sleeping.  No problem... All fine and dandy about using  limited buy orders.
 
I probably still will, because I like watching the way the candles form and checking depth charts to see if I can recognize indicators of how things are moving at different times... but that's just to sharpen skillz, not actually doing any transactions.

 Most of us in these parts are somewhat addicted to looking at charts on a regular basis.  Sometimes I will be socializing and then I will realize after a few hours that I had not looked at the BTC price for several hours.. so I will sneak a peak.  Probably the vast majority of the regulars here do that.

So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle..

And quite a bit behind you and many others who had the time and capital to get started on this year's agibwhen prices were in 3 & 4 digit figures...

Fuck off with that nonsense.

You need to figure out what you are going to do based on yourself, and don't be getting worried if you are behind or not.  That's a bad kind of mindset.

You should be considering whether bitcoin is a good investment now or not, and whether it works for you.  Like I said many times, as a starting point, anyone with at least a 4-year should be considering allocating 1% to 10% into bitcoin, and there are so many no coiners, precoiners and just people who think that they are too late, blah blah blah, and your getting in and established now is likely going to put you way ahead of them, as long as you do not employ too many dumbass strategies trying to beat the system and probably start out with some variation of DCA, buy the dip and lump summing and tailor it to your budget and circumstances, and seems to me that you still have very good chances to reduce your reaching of fuck you status by a considerable amount, if you do not get too smart for your own good.

So yeah,, it looks like it could reach into high 6 digits and by the dreams of some,, maybe even 7 figures, but what if? What if the mass adoptions and corporate interests cause it to flatten out and stagnate in the high 5 figures? What if this is the last 4 year cycle before all volatility settles out?? I want to maximize my value of every meager penny I can currently afford to invest.. And so I'm asking you guys "What holes do you see in this plan?" And you rage about stop losses, leverage, and gambling?? Yea, we agree, but I'm asking about THIS plan... did you read it?

You are talking about situations regarding how much to allocate towards bitcoin, and not about whether or not to invest, so if you are investing $100 per week or more into BTC, you are likely going to be in a good position, but of course, there are no guarantees and you should be tailoring the level of your aggressiveness to your own circumstances including your cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your view of bitcoin compared with your other investments, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to plan, learn along the away, research, and tweak including trading and reallocating from time to time, if you believe that works for you.

No one can give you answers regarding how much to allocate towards BTC, if anything, and how to figure out your various personal financial and psychological details - and hopefully you are able to do those things, right?  Mostly it seems that you are capable, even though your emotional outbursts give me some doubts, but that does not mean that you might not be able to focus ur lil selfie a wee bit more and not get so easily distracted.


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so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated.

OK, Yes, the remote chance that I really suck at placing Stop/Limit orders could possibly cause me to end up with less coins if the market never goes anywhere but up. Good point and taken to heart.

For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.

OK Yes, I also agree that average Joe Q Public generally sucks at anything that doesn't involve sitting on the couch randomly changing channels and stuffing chips in their mouths until they die to young, too fat, and WAY too broke... not generally the type that succeeds at investing and I'm sure you see more than your share of those coming and going to see what this BitCoinCrypto thingy is all about... I give you some leverage there and understand. BTW, did you read the plan I was asking about?

I read all of your crap, so far.  Does not mean that I understood any of it.

I am married, for 16 years to the same woman. Have my house and 4 cars paid for, no kids, and I'm not excessively overweight or unhealthy. Yea it's a public forum, but I was asking what you thought about the merits of my plan that I'm pondering, not that guys...

 
You already mentioned some variation of this, and so surely sometimes personal details could be helpful if you are contemplating your timeline or maybe how much you might want to allocate towards property versus bitcoin.. because if you are more stationary, then you might be o.k. having higher property allocations, and sometimes if you are more stationary, it does feel good to having various nice things, such as cars or whatever other things that you might like to do.


Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not...
and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.

So you are starting to catch on to what I'm talking about.

I see no reason to devolve into patronizing.. but do what you like.
 
So going back to my easy figures, 20-30% gains if we're $100/week over 4 years makes the difference between $20,800 invested and $26,000 invested. (Averaging out to 25%) but if we look further into the system and see that all of those missed orders stay on the books and are therefore filled every time the market dips... doesn't it seem like more than 20-30% would end up being filled? Assuming the market continues to behave as it has with volatility and swings up & down of course. If it's nothing but a parabolic uppity climb, sure I may end up with a lot more orders on the books than filled, but in that case, I'd have a whole lot more total value than I'm currently planning for and I'd still have all the dollars in those orders to lump sum in.


Sounds like gambling to me.   I am saying sure play around with DCA'ing a little bit, but don't be playing around with it too much.. The DCA portion of your budget just buys every week at whatever is the price.  If you have a separate allowance for buying on dips, then yes you might have additional amounts that get plugged into that buying on dips system on a regular basis, too.
 
But yes that's one market case that the system likely fails on and I will have to keep that in mind.

Once you get to a certain level of BTC accumulation, you should not feel bad, at all, for the BTC prices to be going up.. and you should prefer it to go up.  Probably it takes a bit of accumulation time before you get to that point, but surely even currently, I am accepting of the BTC price going down because I buy more, but I way prefer the BTC price to go up... so I try to set my buy orders up in such a way that I get a little bit of satisfaction from the BTC price going down in terms of picking up a few more BTC.., even though my overall preference is up.

At the same time, once you reach your BTC accumulation level, you likely do not give too many shits if the BTC price does not go up either.. because you already made it, so any additional UP is merely icing on the cake rather than anything that stresses you out if it does not happen.

 
but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration,  because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.

It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes.

Duly noted and appreciated.

Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,
Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.

Yes! My goal Certainly is Buy & HODL. And all I'm trying to do is increase my odds of buying the most possible with my allotted weekly investment by aiming for the best price and learning to sharpen my aiming skillz.

Nothing wrong with that.  
 
the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.

I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis.  

Thank You, yes, if I'm gonna do this, I want to dedicate myself to doing it to my very best ability. That's kinda how I roll.

Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).

Yup, glad I'm not that guy! 😜

And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices.

So yea, Mass adoption theories are moot unless I can find ways to simplify and articulate. Good point!

Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.

Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too.  Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you.

Yea, hadn't thought about diversifying my exchanges, but seems like that would magnify complexity and possibly even increase risk exposure... I think I'll keep my limited faith in the one big one until I see any reason not to....

Well sometimes the price can be moving a lot and one exchange is "having difficulties" or they might be screwing with your ability to withdraw.. so it is good to have options.. but maybe there is no rush to that for you.. I usually like to have more than just one option whether we are talking about trading or trying to move value on or off of the exchange.

 
BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?

I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point...

Thank You for taking the time to read and evaluate Jay, even if you do come across as a grumpy old fuck half the time! 🙃

TLDR: none of us  (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?

And once again, I certainly hope that's true! (#nohomo)

(Hopefully quote format worked out better, kinda complicated on a little smartphone)

Your quotes seemed to have worked this time.. so I am glad that you fixed it because in the earlier post, it was a bit more difficult to determine who was saying what, even though it was ONLY the two of us (but sometimes when the posts are long, it might get even more confusing too.. regarding who said what)..  

By the way, you do have the ability to go back and fix your quotes of your older posts if you have some old posts that are not quoting properly... I usually catch my bad posts either before I post or soon after posting I might glance back and notice that I messed up some of the quotes... then I just try to fix them as soon as possible.. and even better if I catch them before someone else quotes my bad quotes (and the quoting of bad quotes has happened sometimes, too).
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June 29, 2021, 03:42:27 AM

[ edited out to avoid taking whole pages in a single post]

By the way, you do have the ability to go back and fix your quotes of your older posts if you have some old posts that are not quoting properly... I usually catch my bad posts either before I post or soon after posting I might glance back and notice that I messed up some of the quotes... then I just try to fix them as soon as possible.. and even better if I catch them before someone else quotes my bad quotes (and the quoting of bad quotes has happened sometimes, too).

Yea, the quoting of bad quotes quoted badly would be (quote) "Bad" (/quote)

Especially on a dumbass "smartphone" with auto-incorrect...
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