Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long …

No we are not in a classical bear market
"this time is different"
…


So for my mining ops I make almost 2x the btc and just amount the exact same in fiat /usd = bullish
Now for my holdings they are losing value = bearish
this is a mixed market for me.
and for everyone mining coin to make wealth they are not in a bear.

for pure traders I say it is a bear.
and for everyone "this time is different." = true
Does it mean an explosive spike up and over 70k in the fall I hope so.  

but remember this 1 btc = 1btc
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/19oNXtgrEX9Lt6c7w3XXAxAWR2T7Ff7CiC.
Still true and has been true since btc was invented.

I doubt that clear thinking is involved when we try to suggest that the same market (talking about BTC here) is a bull for miners and a bear for traders... It just seems to be mixing up too many concepts, and not even BTC gives any shits if it is in a bear or bull market, those categorizations just serve as kind of short hand efforts to attempt to figure out where we are at in terms of a kind of middle term price dynamic.. because surely in the short-term (such as one day to 1 month), in the vast majority of times, no one has any fucking clues, and in the long term (such as a year or more - or maybe we have to call this 4 years plus?), we (those of us who have any kind of clue and are not distracted into shitcoins - not referring to you philip) know that BTC is amongst the best of investments so it has very good odds of either being a wee bit up or very much up.

So trying to call bear or bull in the short term comes off as gobbledy-gook in BTClandia because we have pretty good ideas that bitcoin is following 4-year cycles and has historically followed 4-year cycles, and there is no real sign that the 4-year cycle death knell has come, at least not yet.... so the best we can do is try to attempt to say that we might be in a bear or bull market while suggesting if the 4-year cycle is "on time" or if it is front run or delayed... and of course, some of us neither agree to the frame work, and even some of us (not saying that I am in this club) want to complete ignore the dominant BTC price prediction models and roll their own lame ass price prediction model (based on factors that are probably not as good as accounting for the currently credible models (actually I might be thinking of you here, philip, even though some others do this too).. that sometimes might appear, especially in the short-term, that they might not be playing out).

Well of course we are looking at may 1 to jul 11.

A very small slice of time.

It is a unique slice of time.

We dropped about 50% in both difficulty and price.

It is different but too short term.

As a miner I earn 2x the btc. I earn the same cash 💵.

If this lasts it would be a bear for traders and a bull for miners. That would be new.

Of course it may just go sideways till the fall and take off.
Or it could crash enough that miners hurt as much as traders.
But I am calling it for what I see a mixed market.

In 75 more days I will call it again.

I would actually prefer to have it right where it is.
I do not believe that price will be in the 32-34 slot and diff will be under 15 on sept 25 which is 75 days from now.

But if we stay in the slot the big winners will be miners for the next 75 days.

Time will tell.

[ImThour]

People be like To The Moon! After buying a meme coin. What will they do once their shitcoin is worth a fart? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Buddy continues to do a fine job of steering n that 32-34k slot.

and diff is around -6.8%

steady as she goes.

Hoping for this to go on and on and on and on.

[Biodom]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it? If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin). In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month. So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

You could be right re the 'bear period' and we shall see shortly. Another possibility is when hedge funds/wall street started to get involved, they started to frontrun both bull and bear, distorting the cycles. First, take a note that we "front run"/overshot the bull chart (both fractal and S2F) twice already in this cycle. Also note 'analysts' like Scott Minerd.
First, he was rah-rahring about 300K when we were just above 20, now he turned into a bear with 10-15K calls. This is WS for you. When they get into a position, they would provide wild numbers on both upside and downside, especially those "shops" (like Oppenheimer) that mostly work with the hedge funds.
On a positive note, they could also compress the 'bear part' from 1-1.5 year into only a few months.
In this situation, it would be hardly a 4 year cycle, but some waves and wave breaks, which is what i expect, with adoption and Metcalf's law being more important than halving.

[OutOfMemory]

... nothing surprises me about the characters that show up in bitcoin, perform bizzare antics (and some leave spectacularly too), it's an endless stream of ass-clownery you wouldn't get if you paid for it at the circus

.. Like CSW and Musk joining forces to produce the One-True coin wouldn't surprise me at this stage, it would totally fit the bitcoin history of crazies, interlopers that the 2 biggest charlatans got together, ass-hat and ass-clown double act

The cream top is calvin ayre trying to impress elon with various bsv patents.
Here he is: Shitcoin Jesus 

...wait? This reminds me of someone who also recently disappeared in the chambers of unimportance 
It all started out with a chainsplit 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

as buddy steers us faithfully along the slot of solid mining profits and fuck you trader.

my advice to traders is dca and hodl  for 60-90 days.  then make your moves.


to miners smile all the way to the bank.

oh for hodlers

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/19oNXtgrEX9Lt6c7w3XXAxAWR2T7Ff7CiC.

 still looks like 1btc to me

[OutOfMemory]

Virgin female cannabis = sinsemilla. Later to be used with Pink Floyd albums and Doritos.

wow does that bring back memories. Animals (the pink floyd album) and sinse.. wadda combo for a weed noober like me back then. i still get head rushes on that.

Yup, I remember that shit back in the day. thought it was a different strain like tie weed.

Heh, me too, though i'm a bit younger than you. I was an early starter, despite my upper middle class parental background.
Mum'n Dad always told me to stay away from "the bums", but they were a dozen times more straightforward than what i knew from my family with the inbred stick-up-the-butt "syndrome"  

EDIT: So if my children are buttstickers as welll when they will be grown-ups, i probably deserve it this way. But i already have an exit plan for living at the outer border of society when it's due.

Living on society's border is a young mans game, when you get old you need easy access to health care and food and such, but living on the border, maybe somewhere the boonies, when you are young is boring, unless you are the unabomber.

First:
I mean near the outer border, not outside the border Thus you are right, imo. It's a place 10 mins away (per car) from the next neighbor, 15 mins to the next village and 1 hour away from the next city. I could live with that. My great grandparents lived their whole lifes like that, except without access to cars and in one case without electricity. I will go a step further and have a solar powered house with a well and a sump. Cattle (milk), chicken (eggs), vegetable garden. Lots of grassland, part of a forest and no signs of humanity in plain sight. Maybe i'll see some distant hikers on mountain ridges, with the help of binoculars. Cricket concert all summer long, with a constant uphill breeze. I used to spend weeks and months in these kind of places, from childhood to young adolescence, with shorter visits as an adult.
It's a place where natural drinking water will likely run out last on earth. Probably i'll need a license and some exclusive firearms for hunting. I also like to have dogs again when the kids will be living on their own. Until then i'll stay near the urban areas.

Second:
"marinesoldat" is correct, although google suggested "marine soldat", which are two distinct terms, like spelling "roof top" instead of "rooftop".

EDIT: Observing resistance weakening a bit, so breakout may be due soon, but when drawing lines, i'd second that early august pump opinions.
As most of you might know, i'm drawing lines for fun, taking them not too serious, because king daddy taught me not to do so  
EDIT2: This lesson took a while, though   

[JayJuanGee]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it? If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin). In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month. So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

You could be right re the 'bear period' and we shall see shortly. Another possibility is when hedge funds/wall street started to get involved, they started to frontrun both bull and bear, distorting the cycles. First, take a note that we "front run"/overshoot the bull chart (both fractal and S2F) twice already in this cycle. Also note 'analysts' like Scott Minerd.
First, he was rah-rahring about 300K when we were just above 20, now he turned into a bear with 10-15K calls. This is WS for you. When they get into a position, they would provide wild numbers on both upside and downside, especially those "shops" (like Oppenheimer) that mostly work with the hedge funds.
On a positive note, they could also compress the 'bear part' from 1-1.5 year into only a few months.

Of course you can try to compress.

You can make it appear that you have compressed.

But, when you look back, you may well discover that king daddy did not give no shits.... spin it how you like.

In this situation, it would be hardly a 4 year cycle, but some waves and wave breaks, which is what i expect, with adoption and Metcalf's law being more important than halving.

You may well be correct, but still seems too early to be calling what is going to happen before it happens as if it already has happened.

 

You may well thank me later.   



Most-likely not, though.

 

[philipma1957]

Yeah we have a new pattern say may june july

maybe some of april.

90-95 days tops.

It will unfold and reveal itself over the next 90-95 days

It is mixed and has been mixed for those 90-95 days.

Lets watch and see.

A good time to dca maybe 0.001 btc a day for 100 days.

[Hhampuz]

Why is $34k being such a stingy little bitch 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

buddy is riding that 32-34 slot for a long time.

keep on sticking that groove buddy.

hour after hour.

day after day.

ride that slot buddy.

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

My DCA was set weekly for $50 vs 200 or 250 usd a month for last 4,5 months.

It is now set on the 1st and 15th of the month for 201 so 402 usd worth of BTC monthly for next 3 months.

[Sterbens]

Don't mess up the match, I have to shut you up. no tweets in the stadium

[becoin]

Why is $34k being such a stingy little bitch 

Because someone is selling bitcoins they don't have and they will pay a heavy price for that!

[Copetech]

Why is $34k being such a stingy little bitch 

Makes no sense! There's twice as many bids as asks on the depth chart and has been for about 10 hours straight but price has only moved up $300... Somebody is desperately trying to hold it down. They can't last much longer... can they?