Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it? If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin). In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month. So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

No we are not in a classical bear market

"this time is different"


anyone mining the coin outside of China is earning as much fiat as they were in May when coin was near 64k

So for instance my farm has 1700 th when the diff was at 25.04 the farm made 1700 x .00000475 = 0.008075 btc a day about 516 usd I can not recall the exact number

the farm made 1700 x 0.00000879 = 0.014943 btc a day or 505 usd a day.

So for my mining ops I make almost 2x the btc and just amount the exact same in fiat /usd = bullish

Now for my holdings they are losing value = bearish


this is a mixed market for me.

and for everyone mining coin to make wealth they are not in a bear.

for pure traders I say it is a bear.

and for everyone "this time is different." = true

Doe it mean an explosive spike up and over 70k in the fall I hope so.  but remember this 1 btc = 1btc

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/19oNXtgrEX9Lt6c7w3XXAxAWR2T7Ff7CiC.

Still true and has been true since btc was invented.

[1714771309]

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[vapourminer]

[altcoin crap deleted]

Cant someone warn him ? Admin? Talking about a fcking shitcoin here

ITS BITCOIN RELATED HERE BRUHHHHH GO TO A OTHER FORUM OR DISCUSSION ?

I say give him a ban talking about tron

i just have him on ignore.

[bitebits]

https://medium.com/blockstream-markets-weekly/blockstream-markets-weekly-july-9-2021-47e38d292075

- $55B Marshall Wace prepares BTC fund
- Square plans hardware wallet
- exchanges pinched by regulators
- China eyes stablecoins
- volatility contracts
- and mining profitability soars as the BMN kicks off mining

[Copetech]

It appears the winds have changed... same signs that I have been seeing for downity conditions are absolutely 100% reversed. We could be in for a big spike upward in the next couple hours...

Short Term:
A LOT more resistance around $33,700-$33,850 than I was expecting (ChartBuddy called it but I wasn'ttaking his wise counsel), but the strong upward push is still there. Once it breaks through I expect a hard fast climb to near $35k. But I don't think there's enough momentum to break that $35k wall and I expect it'll bounce hard off of it.

Long Term:
I still think we're going to need to do a quick dip down the $25k-26.5k to pick up the momentum for a parabolic uppity climb to the $45k range. Once we see that the bulls will run. If we don't get that dip, then we're probably stuck in the $31k-$35k sideways action for a couple more months before taking a more measured upward course to peak out in ATH's in mid December. I certainly don't think we'll see anything as drastic as 5he $20k murmuring that's been going around (at least I hope not!) because, if I understand correctly, a lot of big institutions got in around the $24.5k-$25k range, and a fall below that level could cause new weak kneed but very large investors to dump stop loss sales and could truly leave us lost in bear country.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Lots of respected peeps predicting a breakout this coming week. We’ve been in a tight range for a significant time now. What do you think guys, bears on toast or a big dump?

Would love to see those Bitfinex shorters get rekt.

[philipma1957]

Lots of respected peeps predicting a breakout this coming week. We’ve been in a tight range for a significant time now. What do you think guys, bears on toast or a big dump?

Would love to see those Bitfinex shorters get rekt.

the up ⬆️ to the 🔝 will start around august 9th.

I expect to be celebrating both my 35th wedding anniversary and 50k. On that same day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Lots of respected peeps predicting a breakout this coming week. We’ve been in a tight range for a significant time now. What do you think guys, bears on toast or a big dump?

We might see normal pumps in the market and then breakthrough in prices with nominal range of $32k-$37k and till that bears can enjoy toast but the ignition is being powered to bull run start and with next month start this barrier will be crossed and $40k levels would be crossed and bears will burn their toast so waiting for that period.

[JayJuanGee]

So who thinks those chinese miners are the ones attacking Wrongs shitcoin?

Which one(s) (shitcoin/s) are they attacking, and how do you know?

It appears the winds have changed... same signs that I have been seeing for downity conditions are absolutely 100% reversed. We could be in for a big spike upward in the next couple hours...

You believe that such a thing happens so quickly?

Take for example our correction to $3,124 in November 2018 (sure I appreciate that we are not exactly in the same place but similar short-term principles/dynamics could apply?).  I recall that we got stuck in mid-to-upper $3ks for several months, but then the move from $3.8k to $4.2k took about the whole month of March to play out before our April 1 break out that ended up lasting for three months and brought us a 3.5x.

So, sure the dynamics could be different here because one thing is trying to break above $40k or is it $43k or is it $46k in order to get the sense that we are returning UPpity, but then we end up running into a new question in terms of whether there is going to be some sticking points - and surely many of us would be flabbergasted by anything close to a 3x or more price run, even if it took 3 months to play out.. but of course, reaching all new time highs would have its own kind of self-fueling effect, presuming that we could first get some of the momentum to get above the first resistance points in the $40ks - wherever that break might be.

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market?

Seems too early to come to that conclusion, even if it might end up being true.. and even if the odds seem to be against it..

And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it?

A bear market would presume end of the cycle... and so I surely am not willing to call a correction a bear market unless this thing takes a couple of years or more to play out to get us back to ATHs.... so it still is going to depend upon how low we go and how long we stay there before a bear market would correctly label where we are currently at.

If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin).

Even that kind of a scenario (of a correction lasting less than 4 months) would likely rise to the level of something that would compare less severe (relatively speaking) than our 2013 mid-year price lull period, even though it might feel more dramatic and drastic for some of us while actually going through it, rather than looking at the other one on the historical charts.

In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month.

Of course, none of them were in the 50% correction territory.. but at least they were in the midst of a price rise, so probably goes to show that it remains difficult to compare any two periods - even though the comparisons can give us some ideas of whether what we are experiencing is relatively more or less severe and if it might be feasible to go up from here rather than conceding that our direction would inevitably end up down rather than up.

So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

Sure, likely you are correct that if we end up in 6 months of either down or sideways, we may well have to reconsider where we are at - and even right now, we are still only two months into the down than then mostly moving in a $30k to $42k range (and one, so far) bounce below $30k.... so even revisiting sub $30k again may well tell us that this correction is NOT over.. even if it has been about 3 weeks since we even saw sub $30k... .. but of course, can't be counting our chickens before they hatch and we remain in sub $30k striking distance, for sure.. which is currently causing me to be looking at supra $40k in order to feel comfort, and probably $46k plus would cause me to start to gain high levels of confidence and perhaps even stick out my tongue... with an under the breath proclamation that the "bottom is in"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it? If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin). In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month. So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

No we are not in a classical bear market

"this time is different"


anyone mining the coin outside of China is earning as much fiat as they were in May when coin was near 64k

So for instance my farm has 1700 th when the diff was at 25.04 the farm made 1700 x .00000475 = 0.008075 btc a day about 516 usd I can not recall the exact number

the farm made 1700 x 0.00000879 = 0.014943 btc a day or 505 usd a day.

So for my mining ops I make almost 2x the btc and just amount the exact same in fiat /usd = bullish

Now for my holdings they are losing value = bearish


this is a mixed market for me.

and for everyone mining coin to make wealth they are not in a bear.

for pure traders I say it is a bear.

and for everyone "this time is different." = true

Doe it mean an explosive spike up and over 70k in the fall I hope so.  but remember this 1 btc = 1btc

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/19oNXtgrEX9Lt6c7w3XXAxAWR2T7Ff7CiC.

Still true and has been true since btc was invented.

I doubt that clear thinking is involved when we try to suggest that the same market (talking about BTC here) is a bull for miners and a bear for traders... It just seems to be mixing up too many concepts, and not even BTC gives any shits if it is in a bear or bull market, those categorizations just serve as kind of short hand efforts to attempt to figure out where we are at in terms of a kind of middle term price dynamic.. because surely in the short-term (such as one day to 1 month), in the vast majority of times, no one has any fucking clues, and in the long term (such as a year or more - or maybe we have to call this 4 years plus?), we (those of us who have any kind of clue and are not distracted into shitcoins - not referring to you philip) know that BTC is amongst the best of investments so it has very good odds of either being a wee bit up or very much up.

So trying to call bear or bull in the short term comes off as gobbledy-gook in BTClandia because we have pretty good ideas that bitcoin is following 4-year cycles and has historically followed 4-year cycles, and there is no real sign that the 4-year cycle death knell has come, at least not yet.... so the best we can do is try to attempt to say that we might be in a bear or bull market while suggesting if the 4-year cycle is "on time" or if it is front run or delayed... and of course, some of us neither agree to the frame work, and even some of us (not saying that I am in this club) want to complete ignore the dominant BTC price prediction models and roll their own lame ass price prediction model (based on factors that are probably not as good as accounting for the currently credible models (actually I might be thinking of you here, philip, even though some others do this too).. that sometimes might appear, especially in the short-term, that they might not be playing out).

[xhomerx10]

https://decrypt.co/75686/bogdanoff-twins-claim-they-helped-invent-bitcoin

Bogdanoff Twins Claim They Helped Invent Bitcoin
The bizarre statements follow a running gag that the 71-year-old twin brothers control the crypto markets...and the world.
By Ekin Genç
4 min read
Jul 11, 2021

In brief

• Igor and Grichka Bogdanoff claim they knew about Satoshi Nakamoto through a Japanese scientist and influenced Bitcoin’s development.
• The bold claims come years after being subject to a long-running gag in crypto that portray them as omnipotent market forces.
• French TV personalities and former theoretical physicists Igor and Grichka Bogdanoff claim they knew of Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto and were involved with the creation of the cryptocurrency.

“Igor and I, as mathematicians, were able to participate in the elaboration of some of the source code, especially the ‘predictive code’,” said Grichka Bogdanoff on French TV show Non Stop People on July 1, who expanded on his claims on L'Heure des Pros on July 7.

In the early 90s, the two brothers said they worked with François Mizzi, the inventor of the touchscreen, whose lab included a Japanese scientist, Soïtchiro Shimoda, who was “someone close to the mythical person or a group of people” called Nakamoto. The Bogdanoff twins said they would often discuss ideas about a digital currency with Shimoda, though they didn’t specify any details.

What if Satoshi Nakamoto suddenly returned?
His return is imperceptible, at first a faint rumour in some dark reach of the web. A lone cybersecurity researcher uncovers curious activity on a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet, unused since 201...

The Bogdanoff twins also claimed that Nakamoto gave them two “ancient Bitcoins” in “physical form” when Bitcoin was created in 2008.

Hellmouth Banner, editor-in-chief of French crypto media outlet Journal du Coin, told Decrypt that these claims should be taken with a pinch of salt since, “in terms of credibility, [the twins] are equivalent to a scientific version of the Kardashian family.”

Who are Grichka and Igor Bogdanoff?
Physicists by training, the Bogdanoff twins rose to prominence in France as hosts of science education show XTemps during the 80s. These days, they're treated as socialites rather than scientists.

“Their atypical look and their often offbeat and original statements make them good recruits to attract audiences,” Banner said. They have been the subject of many controversies over the years, including disputes about the veracity of their academic credentials and a recent court case alleging that they scammed a bipolar millionaire.

Despite the bold claims about their involvement with Bitcoin, the twins’ passing mention of their investment in Ethereum has attracted even more attention.

There is, after all, a long-standing meme that the twins are able to control the market.

The rise of a conspiracy-meme
The brothers became a running gag in crypto following a series of parody videos in 2018 by the YouTube channel Bizonacci, which portrayed the Bogdanoffs as omnipotent market actors who conspire against an average crypto trader.

“Get Vitalik on the line,” one Bogdanoff orders in the video. “Pump Ethereum for two hours and then wake him up,” he tells an obeying Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder. Once the trader FOMOs into Ethereum, Bogdanoff orders the market to crash, and it crashes.

The popularity of the Bogdanoff meme follows an online trend that began in 2015 when a Reddit user posted a photo of the twins in the subreddit r/wtf, with the title “How do they think is attractive?!” in reference to what looks like botched plastic surgery.

In 2017, an anonymous 4chan user posted a made-up list of conspiracy theories about the Bogdanoff brothers, such as direct contact with aliens, the ability to control the French prime minister and “evidence which suggests that the Rothschilds are operating under their supervision.”

The conspiracy meme was best captured by a photo of Grichka Bogdanoff speaking on the phone. And that photo, said the Bogdanoff twins on July 1, will become an NFT soon.

"It is probably Nakamoto who made [the photo] circulate,” Igor Bogdanoff nonchalantly suggested. That photo was “in all blockchains between 2010-2012,” and it’s been downloaded more than 1.3 billion times, he claimed.

“Anyone with two hours of crypto culture can see that it's a bunch of improvised nonsense,” said Banner. But the Bogdanoffs have access to the entire Parisian intelligentsia, he added, so if they were to launch a crypto project, it could well be a success.

During the interviews, the Bogdanoff twins also announced they would launch a cryptocurrency called Exo-Coin. They didn’t share details, but if the conspiracy theories are anything to go by, the mighty Bogdanoffs will force their way to victory.

Andreas Tsamados and Jefferson Kernel contributed to this report.

 I've got two “ancient Bitcoins” in “physical form” right here for them.

[philipma1957]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long …

No we are not in a classical bear market
"this time is different"
…


So for my mining ops I make almost 2x the btc and just amount the exact same in fiat /usd = bullish
Now for my holdings they are losing value = bearish
this is a mixed market for me.
and for everyone mining coin to make wealth they are not in a bear.

for pure traders I say it is a bear.
and for everyone "this time is different." = true
Does it mean an explosive spike up and over 70k in the fall I hope so.  

but remember this 1 btc = 1btc
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/19oNXtgrEX9Lt6c7w3XXAxAWR2T7Ff7CiC.
Still true and has been true since btc was invented.

I doubt that clear thinking is involved when we try to suggest that the same market (talking about BTC here) is a bull for miners and a bear for traders... It just seems to be mixing up too many concepts, and not even BTC gives any shits if it is in a bear or bull market, those categorizations just serve as kind of short hand efforts to attempt to figure out where we are at in terms of a kind of middle term price dynamic.. because surely in the short-term (such as one day to 1 month), in the vast majority of times, no one has any fucking clues, and in the long term (such as a year or more - or maybe we have to call this 4 years plus?), we (those of us who have any kind of clue and are not distracted into shitcoins - not referring to you philip) know that BTC is amongst the best of investments so it has very good odds of either being a wee bit up or very much up.

So trying to call bear or bull in the short term comes off as gobbledy-gook in BTClandia because we have pretty good ideas that bitcoin is following 4-year cycles and has historically followed 4-year cycles, and there is no real sign that the 4-year cycle death knell has come, at least not yet.... so the best we can do is try to attempt to say that we might be in a bear or bull market while suggesting if the 4-year cycle is "on time" or if it is front run or delayed... and of course, some of us neither agree to the frame work, and even some of us (not saying that I am in this club) want to complete ignore the dominant BTC price prediction models and roll their own lame ass price prediction model (based on factors that are probably not as good as accounting for the currently credible models (actually I might be thinking of you here, philip, even though some others do this too).. that sometimes might appear, especially in the short-term, that they might not be playing out).

Well of course we are looking at may 1 to jul 11.

A very small slice of time.

It is a unique slice of time.

We dropped about 50% in both difficulty and price.

It is different but too short term.

As a miner I earn 2x the btc. I earn the same cash 💵.

If this lasts it would be a bear for traders and a bull for miners. That would be new.

Of course it may just go sideways till the fall and take off.
Or it could crash enough that miners hurt as much as traders.
But I am calling it for what I see a mixed market.

In 75 more days I will call it again.

I would actually prefer to have it right where it is.
I do not believe that price will be in the 32-34 slot and diff will be under 15 on sept 25 which is 75 days from now.

But if we stay in the slot the big winners will be miners for the next 75 days.

Time will tell.

[ImThour]

People be like To The Moon! After buying a meme coin. What will they do once their shitcoin is worth a fart? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Buddy continues to do a fine job of steering n that 32-34k slot.

and diff is around -6.8%

steady as she goes.

Hoping for this to go on and on and on and on.

[Biodom]

I guess the most imortant question now is are we in a bear market? And if so, for how long we will be there, before starting to climb up to the last ATH and break it? If the trend changes in the next few weeks, I guess it won't be right to call it a bear market but rather a transition/recovery period from Elon&China FUD (actually they are the same, since there is leaked information that CCP is investing in Tesla and wants Elon to ban Bitcoin). In 2017 we had 3 such periods. The first in the winter - about 1 month, the second in the summer - about 2 months and the third in the autumn - about 1 month. So it is a bit early to tell if the current period is like an extended version of 2017's sideway periods. I guess, however, that if this period extends over 6 months, then we can hardly deny we've entered some kind of a bear market. Time will tell, I guess.

You could be right re the 'bear period' and we shall see shortly. Another possibility is when hedge funds/wall street started to get involved, they started to frontrun both bull and bear, distorting the cycles. First, take a note that we "front run"/overshot the bull chart (both fractal and S2F) twice already in this cycle. Also note 'analysts' like Scott Minerd.
First, he was rah-rahring about 300K when we were just above 20, now he turned into a bear with 10-15K calls. This is WS for you. When they get into a position, they would provide wild numbers on both upside and downside, especially those "shops" (like Oppenheimer) that mostly work with the hedge funds.
On a positive note, they could also compress the 'bear part' from 1-1.5 year into only a few months.
In this situation, it would be hardly a 4 year cycle, but some waves and wave breaks, which is what i expect, with adoption and Metcalf's law being more important than halving.

[OutOfMemory]

... nothing surprises me about the characters that show up in bitcoin, perform bizzare antics (and some leave spectacularly too), it's an endless stream of ass-clownery you wouldn't get if you paid for it at the circus

.. Like CSW and Musk joining forces to produce the One-True coin wouldn't surprise me at this stage, it would totally fit the bitcoin history of crazies, interlopers that the 2 biggest charlatans got together, ass-hat and ass-clown double act

The cream top is calvin ayre trying to impress elon with various bsv patents.
Here he is: Shitcoin Jesus 

...wait? This reminds me of someone who also recently disappeared in the chambers of unimportance 
It all started out with a chainsplit 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation