Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Is this ONLY pertaining to allowing bitcoin or is it a broader policy allowing shitcoins, too?

Maybe a link would be helpful to attempt to suss out some details, if there are some details available.

Here are links for the same article and you could probably find some details here:

Advertise on google

Google new crypto policy

Under the new rules, crypto wallets will have to be registered with FinCEN or a federal or state-chartered bank entity to get on Google’s ad network. They will also need to “comply with relevant legal requirements, including local legal requirements, whether at a state or federal level”. Of course, all existing Google ad policies apply to crypto companies as well.

[ImThour]

It's crazy how people were waiting for 20k BTC when it dropped to 28, now they are buying at 40. Sick!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

go buddy stretch us up and over 44,444.44 by sat morning.

Its bed 🛏 time for me.

But I thought 4 is the number of death, no?

Better pick $55,555.55. We are vaxxed, you know...

That's an interesting proposition, AlcoHoDL - to consider if this run might have a top that is closer to $44,444 or $55,555. 

I hate to lock myself into any scenario that has not happened yet... but sure, there is a kind of need to break through in these lower to mid $40ks that seems likely to fuel more UPpity...

I mean, it's not like we have not been here before.. so $44,444 versus $55,555 seems to be a matter of when rather than "if"....

For me, I can see that there might be some uncertainties regarding if $44,444 is breakable.. and it is surely in a price location that seem to be on the cusp of clearing out most, if any, of the resistance that would exist between $44,444 and $55,555.. so I guess I am suggesting that they do not really seem to be too far apart from one another, yet I am not so brave as to attempt to describe that area as having a high potential for "no man's land"... unless we want to call it some miniature version.. "no babies land".. .but that is not really saying anything... I give up.

It's true though. 4 is supposed to be the number of death. The Chinese among us will confirm it (I'm not Chinese myself, but have Chinese friends who've told me so). Interestingly, you will notice that Asian products often skip "4" in a series of models. For example, in the digital camera market, there was the Canon PowerShot G1, G2, G3, then the G5. There was no G4... Is Canon's leadership superstitious? I don't think so, they're too smart to be, but some of their dumb customers may well be, hence the avoidance of "4". For the same reason, there is often no "Room 13" or "13th Floor" in hotels. It's the same reason why the politicians and military leaders always go to church in public, and strictly follow religious protocols, although they may actually be atheists. They just want to keep the flock happy.

If you ask me, the above mentality is totally stupid, and can even partly explain the anti-vax craze, but I won't go there. To each their own. Life goes on, science/technology advances, some adapt, survive and prosper, others get stuck in their old ways, wear their tin-foil hats and watch Fox News and Alex Jones. Come to think of it, it's a wonderful, self-adapting process, which ultimately promotes the survival of the fittest. There is no need for governments to force anything to anyone. I oppose compulsory vaccinations. Just allow everyone to freely decide what to do, and let the viruses themselves do the hard work.

$55k is better than $44k for sure. And it certainly is a matter of "when" rather than "if". And an UPpity is more likely too, from where we currently stand. And I can also agree that $44k and $55k could in fact be so close to each other that attaining one could quickly lead to the other and the next double digit in the sequence, until there is a need for a third digit, and, before we know it, the counter is reset to $111k. My antennae pick a triple-$k digit price in 2022, which would be awesome and could lead to some major priority shuffling among many of us.

"When", not "if". Those who get it will survive and prosper, those who don't will be left behind and stay poor until they die.

[Karartma1]

snip

merited and applauded, always spot on my friend

[cygan]

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month

january 2021 - check✔

february 2021 - check✔

march 2021 - check✔

april 2021 - check✔

may 2021 - failed✖

june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year

july 2021 - failed✖ 

[fillippone]

<…>
Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785

Great analysis +5WO merits (Fillipone has been too generous last month, Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week).

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

Chart buddy interrupt

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[Hhampuz]

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Looks like it might be an interesting night.

Or not.

[suchmoon]

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

It's the opposite of a death cross, i.e. shorter MA crossing longer MA upwards. It's a bit of a stretch to use it with a 4h chart but this is Bitcoin, we can do whatever we want, as long as we can say that the number will go up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

Plan B is criticized for having a model that fails to account for adoption levels, and only accounts for supply levels.

So in the basic supply and demand formula, Plan B is presumed to ONLY account for one side of the dynamic, yet in some sense, there could be some redemption to suggest that PlanB's model assumes demand as a constant and that it will always exist... so sure his model might fail if demand goes way up or way down and demand ends up NOT being the constant that seems to be implied in his model(s).

Hopefully, I am not misstating one of the commonly repeated presumption of ongoing demand criticisms of PlanB's model.

Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week.

gotta laugh at this one, for sure...

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.

Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

It's the opposite of a death cross, i.e. shorter MA crossing longer MA upwards. It's a bit of a stretch to use it with a 4h chart but this is Bitcoin, we can do whatever we want, as long as we can say that the number will go up.

That's exactly correct suchmoon.. even though you were coming off as a bit of a smartass.... but in any event, one of the three BTC price prediction models has exponential s-curve adoption built into it, so if any of us appreciates that exponential s-curve adoption actually applies to bitcoin, then we also will realize that all roads lead to UPpity... that is not a bug.. it's a feature... so you can push bad boy down and down and down and even get away with pushing it down for a considerable amount of time (beyond expectations).. but sooner or later (sometimes scaring out a lot of the wanna get-rich-quick and emotional types) bad boy is going to spring back up.. it's in the underlying design...