Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1552351927593308160

[DaRude]

Grayscale Investment’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has dropped to a new low this week as the bitcoin fund tapped a record 35.18% low against bitcoin spot prices. GBTC’s discount to spot has been underwater for a total of 577 consecutive days.


GBTC discount or premium to NAV 3-year chart on September 26, 2022.

https://news.bitcoin.com/grayscales-gbtc-discount-to-nav-breaks-records-as-spread-widens-by-more-than-35/

So this is real interesting.  Remember the GBTC arbitrage trade that no longer works : from bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/-slam-dunk-bitcoin-arbitrage-fizzles-for-biggest-crypto-fund "When that happens, hedge funds swoop in to take advantage. They borrow Bitcoin, deposit the coins with GBTC in exchange for shares that are more valuable than the coins they bought, and they pocket that profit by selling the marked-up shares after a six-month lockup period expires. Thanks in part to the trade’s popularity, GBTC’s assets have swelled to over $35 billion from about $1.5 billion a year ago."

Now we are at just under 12 Billion AUM.

Did some greedy as fuck hedge funds get fucked ?  35% discount, no one wants to buy GBTC ?  So they "arbitraged" thinking no risk for 34 billion probably as a group, making UNHOLY amounts of money (at first).  6 months is a long time in bitcoin.  Once unlocked I guess they have shares that the market can't absorb.  There just isn't any hecking liquidity, or demand for that kind of bitcoin stuck in a 2% fee vague-regulation-wise fund.

The Discount will keep discounting as they try to unload.  Else they are stuck with the gbtc paying 2%.

So the guy who made GBTC is making bank even in a bear market.  genius.  lure em hedge funds with an arbitrage trade, then use the steam roller to make them stuck in their trades and collect that percentage.  maybe i read this wrong but finance is fun.  get too greedy you'll get eaten by smarter people.

edit: is this guy for real making 200 million a year in fees.  Its ALMOST, ALMOST as good as stablecoin scams (every single centralized one) where they reinvest proceeds to generate returns, and when their chinese commerical paper goes belly up they can just say it didn't happen and apparently that works.

Pretty much, but the other way to look at this is the probability of getting an ETF any time soon. They're the first in line to convert to an ETF and the discount would go to 0 the second they're approved. Looks like market is not pricing in an ETF for another 10yrs or so (2% yearly fee at a current 35% discount cost of money locked etc)

[ImThour]

Hi peeps, we are about to see a breakout on this trendline. I am sure you all did your bitcoin shopping and now ready to take off

Update

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

.....Now Italy has voted for populists in the hope they can do something. That will end it tears, most probably.

Gee, I wonder why??


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy

In reality, it has little to do with it.
It's the dividend of being at the opposition during the difficult time of the COVID and energy crisis.

But good luck to Giorgia Meloni and his friends this winter, when things will inevitably heat up! (pun intended!).

Not sure how many other countries going neo-fascist due to covid response? Are you sure it's not just social and financial pressures leaving majority confused and looking for answers, opening a door wide open to any populist that claims to have a simple solution to everyone's problems preferably which can fit on a cap?


In other news,

The pound’s slide works to the benefit of American tourists, as it allows their dollars to go further.
...
The greenback is up more than 19 percent against a basket of foreign currencies so far this year, which should help reduce U.S. inflation by making imported products more affordable. But at the same time, the stronger dollar is causing problems for U.S. trading partners.
...
chancellor of the exchequer, or finance minister, announced a package of cuts worth 45 billion pounds ($48 billion) — amounting to the biggest shake-up to the British tax system in 50 years.
...
Under Truss, the government has slashed the top income tax rate of 45 percent for those making more than 150,000 pounds ($160,000) a year and scrapped the cap for banker bonuses — moves that will predominantly help more-affluent citizens in hopes that they will increase their spending.
...
In a broader-reaching measure, the government will cap energy bills starting in October — at a cost of 60 billion pounds for six months.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/26/uk-gbp-pound-falls-usd-dollar/

So borrow more to subsidize energy bills of the poor, cut taxes for the bankers, and make American tourists happy tada! everyone wins right, surely no category of people somewhere in the middle is left out of this great plan? At least the queen doesn't get to see GBP-USD parity.

[philipma1957]

₿itcoin is the pin.
Everything else is a bubble.



https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1574446622754365445?t=izUPP64wVRygJpoXeShx7g&s=19

maybe  or maybe the pin is cash and the bubble is btc

I can tell you this fed will try popping btc with many more interest moves.

[cAPSLOCK]

Come on ChartBuddy
Stop dominating this thread
Stopping you at four

I think if I ask ChartBuddy to stop, it won't stop. Because his posts are robotic. He always gives us bitcoin news in a somewhat robotic way. I can't find any other posts on his account.
So I don't think he can be stopped.

Why don't you write a haiku for us please.

Chart buddy is here.
Whether we like it or not!
Here's to liking it!!!

[cAPSLOCK]

Hi peeps, we are about to see a breakout on this trendline. I am sure you all did your bitcoin shopping and now ready to take off

Update
[im width =100]https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/2/2btiSjNk.png[/img]

I shopped in 2011, thanks.  And 2102... 13, 14... 15 . well, yeah.. 16... 17 ... well then in 17 I took a trip to hawaii on bitcoin... whoops.  But then, in 2018, then 2019, 20, 21. 22....

Do I qualify?

Not meaning to be snarky.  I just mostly hold my tongue.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

₿itcoin is the pin.
Everything else is a bubble.



https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1574446622754365445?t=izUPP64wVRygJpoXeShx7g&s=19

maybe  or maybe the pin is cash and the bubble is btc

I can tell you this fed will try popping btc with many more interest moves.

They're trying doesn't mean that they will be successful.  We have seen it before when the bears get too cocky..and then they have to end up chasing king daddy because they were too busy preparing for DOWNity instead of sufficiently and adequately preparing their lil selfies for UP.

Hopefully you are not one of those guys chasing after the train, again... philip...


Like these guys..





I doubt that guys are here in this thread because they want to make sure that they have enough dollars and that they are able to get some yield on their dollars because "The Fed" is currently giving good incentives for them to "invest in America."

Don't get fooled into missing what may well be the greatest investment opportunity in our lifetimes - and especially available to normies, which most other investments have not been very available to normies to be able to buy small amounts and to keep it stashed away through their own holding abilities, even though there is a bit of a learning curve, still, in regards to how to hold the my lil precious that you are able to accumulate.

[xhomerx10]

[OgNasty]

I’m somewhat surprised by the strength we’re seeing in the Bitcoin market right now. It is behaving like a safe haven suddenly while pretty much everything else is selling off. I’m not sure this can be sustained, but if so I would love to be wrong. Keeping my eye on this decoupling to see if this is a fluke or if we’re about to see Bitcoin buck the trends of past to make a run here.

[xhomerx10]

I’m somewhat surprised by the strength we’re seeing in the Bitcoin market right now. It is behaving like a safe haven suddenly while pretty much everything else is selling off. I’m not sure this can be sustained, but if so I would love to be wrong. Keeping my eye on this decoupling to see if this is a fluke or if we’re about to see Bitcoin buck the trends of past to make a run here.

Fluke?  Folks've finally figured fiat's fu¢ked!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

Meh. We need a clean break above $24.5k for this to be more than just another wave in the wavy part of the rollercoaster.

Although the up part of the wave always feels better than the down, that's for sure.

[Gachapin]

It's just a matter of time until "money" (aka endlessly abundant fed-shitcoin) will flow into BTC like crazy.  
But I wouldn't get too excited just yet...

Even though the light decoupling right now is a glimpse of hope...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation