Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?

No

I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.

Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.

Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.

It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.

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[d_eddie]

Damn... 

Hmm, I don't get it. Who's this cutie? Bitcoin relevant or just necessary eye candy for soon-to-be millionaires?

[BitcoinBunny]

Damn...  

Hmm, I don't get it. Who's this cutie? Bitcoin relevant or just necessary eye candy for soon-to-be millionaires?

Liz Hurley at 58.

And yes just eye candy. 

[d_eddie]

At 58 it must be hard candy, but WOW.
Congrats to Liz.

[NotATether]

[Volgastallion]

Everyone yesterday after the news of the win og greyscale against SEC, was very euphorical, and its ok, but after a day i can say, its not looking so good for us in term of price in the short run.

If after such an important win we only recover a 5% and we start very fast to return into the 27k price and lower, its not a good sign for the short term, i can see us again in the 26/25k for a "long" time like until the end of the year.

The only thing that can cahnge that for me its another new more for the ETF market aprobation or something related.

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1696713063284519104?t=AK6OSoc5RxCkwVLLcTgwtg&s=19

Welcome to my ignore spammer.

TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD BEFORE POSTING YOUR TWATTER SHITLINKS.

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

yeah sure 

[ibminer]

https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1696713063284519104?t=AK6OSoc5RxCkwVLLcTgwtg&s=19

Welcome to my ignore spammer.

TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD BEFORE POSTING YOUR TWATTER SHITLINKS.

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

yeah sure 

    Well, he did edit.. but apparently to make the twitter link better?  smh.. you can't make this stuff up.

A. D. C. court has ruled in favour of Grayscale

[gallianooo]

Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?

No

I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.

Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.

Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.

It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.

But...

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years.

[xhomerx10]

https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1696713063284519104?t=AK6OSoc5RxCkwVLLcTgwtg&s=19

Welcome to my ignore spammer.

TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD BEFORE POSTING YOUR TWATTER SHITLINKS.

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

yeah sure  

    Well, he did edit.. but apparently to make the twitter link better?  smh.. you can't make this stuff up.

A. D. C. court has ruled in favour of Grayscale

 Ah, it's the old  A. D. C. court trick.  Missed it by that much!

[Greyhats]

* BREAKING NEWS *

Typo’d my dca and added an extra zero. Future self will be thanking current self at some point. Current self not sure if should be more careful or make more mistakes on purpose kind of maybe hah.


End of news bulletin

Source: ya reading it straight from the horses mouth

[dragonvslinux]

Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?

No

I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.

Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.

Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.

It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.

But...

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years.

It's a fair point. It's the Bakkt scenario I'm more concerned about, that was after a strong bear market relief rally and months of consolidation (that turned into distribution) in the exact same time frame as this bear market. I highly doubt price would fall further than 60%, because as you said this isn't the peak of a bull market, but who's to say there won't be a run to $50K soon because an ETF approval.

Overall price increasing on an approval is more or less a given I believe, unless something disastrous happens during that period. Look at what happened when Greyscale won against the SEC, that wasn't even an approval and price spiked up by 5% within an hour based on positive news. I therefore don't really see how an ETF could launch without price first dramatically increasing based on the approval news.

So for me the two scenarios go hand in hand. The reason price dumps after a product launch is because the price dramatically increased leading up to it.

[DireWolfM14]

Its quite common for the country extraditing the criminal to specify no death penalty or other conditions that are aligned with their own laws in facilitating details during the transfer process.

Are you saying election interference and contribution fraud are in alignment with the laws of the Bahamas?

[d_eddie]

https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1696713063284519104?t=AK6OSoc5RxCkwVLLcTgwtg&s=19

Welcome to my ignore spammer.

TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD BEFORE POSTING YOUR TWATTER SHITLINKS.

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

yeah sure 

Personally, I generally don't even bother to announce my ignores anymore.

But since both you and Hueristic mentioned this spammer, yes, they made it there very quickly.

[Negotiation]

Damn... 

Sunshine is Looking hot 
Forgot with the wine bottle?

 

[philipma1957]

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

The problem is not in the form in which you draw up a link to the source of this picture. The problem is that this topic has been actively discussed over the past few pages and more meaningfully. If you read the thread, you would know...

Thanks, Yes later went back to previous threads and realized it was already being discussed and that's my bad.

So go back and delete it which would take away the merit jjg gave you

at least I think it would.

A. D. C. court has ruled in favour of Grayscale

[ibminer]

So go back and delete it which would take away the merit jjg gave you

at least I think it would.

Merit does not get deleted.

edit: I think only theymos himself can delete merit, and I think it may have been done before in abuse situations, but I can't find any link.

[vapourminer]

Does merit only drop if the op deletes it?

tossed ya a merit

lets see

[philipma1957]

So go back and delete it which would take away the merit jjg gave you

at least I think it would.

Merit does not get deleted.

edit: I think only theymos himself can delete merit, and I think it may have been done before in abuse situations, but I can't find any link.

okay then why is this on front of thread?


"This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)"



Does merit only drop if the op (intofront) deletes it?

Or has merit deletion on this thread been ended in both cases.

okay testing it. 6215 in place with the tester.

so the 6215 stayed.  then I do wonder how the below happened.

"This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)"


Maybe it was done by theymos or a mod not the op intofront.

[vapourminer]

So go back and delete it which would take away the merit jjg gave you

at least I think it would.

Merit does not get deleted.

edit: I think only theymos himself can delete merit, and I think it may have been done before in abuse situations, but I can't find any link.

okay then why is this on front of thread?


"This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)"



Does merit only drop if the op (intofront) deletes it?

Or has merit deletion on this thread been ended in both cases.

okay testing it. 6215 in place with the tester

ok shows 6215..

so plus 10 merit

take THAT

edit: shows 6225 merits now