Most oversold supposedly and still going down. All the graphs and tools suck ass.
I did look at that
daily RSI, and it does look pretty low, relatively speaking to all of BTC's history that I could see (which ONLY allowed me to go back 2 years using the daily), but it still might be a BIG ASS so fucking what... even though it might justify a short-term bounce, and then maybe continued downity.
If I look at 3D RSI and weekly RSI (which allowed me to go back 6.5 years and 11.5 years respectively), there are surely way lower RSI points in earlier periods as compared to now, so then the question becomes why get concerned about the
daily RSI when there are longer term RSIs that we could also look at, and perhaps the main reason to look at the short-term RSI would be for someone wanting to make some kind of a short-term bet regarding the probabilities that we might get a bounce from her, and attempt to trade upon that information, and many of us here don't consider ourselves to be shorter-term traders (based on recent WO surveys maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 50-80% of us, depending on who you ask.)...
...yet at the same time, I suppose that we are
wall watchers, and so maybe some of us might consider that if there is some kind of convincing evidence, then we might want to try to either trade on that information or at least maybe decide whether to buy (a little more cornz) here or whether to sell if the RSI were in the opposite direction.. so that is a kind of trading (or hedging), I suppose.
Personally, at this time (and based on these current BTC prices) I am not really doing anything different than I had already been planning to do, which is buy when the BTC price goes down and sell when it goes up... and of course, for someone who might be reading my post for the first time, the way that I sell on the way up is to just sell very small amounts as the BTC price goes up, which seems to be somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up (not exactly that, but somewhere in that ballpark amount).. so in that regard, maybe if the BTC had gone up 100% (doubled), then maybe I might have ended up selling 5% of the BTC from what I had at the 1/2 price.. ..
So my way of selling would look something like this if a hypothetical person had 10 BTC at $20k (that would be $200k), so every time the price doubles, then such hypothetical person's BTC would reduce yet his fiat value would be going up much faster than the amount that he is withdrawing, so the cashing out would look something like the below chart:
**Example of hypothetical person cashing out 5% of BTC every time it doubles in fiat price
# BTC | Fiat Price | Total Value | Rake BTC | Rake USD | Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL |
|
10.00000 | $40,000 | $400,000.00 | 0.50000 | $20,000.00 | $20,000.00 | |
9.50000 | $80,000 | $760,000.00 | 0.47500 | $38,000.00 | $58,000.00 | |
9.02500 | $160,000 | $1,444,000.00 | 0.45125 | $72,200.00 | $130,200.00 | |
8.57375 | $320,000 | $2,743,600.00 | 0.42869 | $137,180.00 | $267,380.00 | |
8.14506 | $640,000 | $5,212,840.00 | 0.40725 | $260,642.00 | $528,022.00 | |
7.73781 | $1,280,000 | $9,904,396.00 | 0.38689 | $495,219.80 | $1,023,241.80 | |
**note: I will apologize to fillippone in advance for the format of these charts, because I could not get his google spreadsheet conversion tool to work for me**Revised note: The charts look nicer due fillippone providing me with a new templateSo if I keep up this same 5% cashing for every doubling, by the time that the price get's to $1.28 million, such hypothetical person has ONLY cashed out around 2.65535 BTC (and he got more than $1 million in fiat for that) from his original 10 BTC stash that started out with a $20k value, and at the same time, his 7.73781 BTC stash is then worth about 9.9 million.
So really such person could potentially afford to be more aggressive with his cashing out of BTC than from that 5% formula and still maintain a pretty decently-sized investment portfolio value increase overall while enjoying some of the profits along the way and just having those profits along the way to be available to him, if he so chooses, and so even if such hypothetical person increases his cashing out amount to be 10% of his BTC stash for every BTC doubling of the BTC price, as the revised chart looks below, he is still doing pretty well by the time the BTC price reaches $1.28 million.
Example of hypothetical person cashing out 10% of BTC every time it doubles in fiat price
# BTC | Fiat Price | Total Value | Rake BTC | Rake USD | Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL |
|
10.00000 | $40,000 | $400,000.00 | 1.00000 | $40,000.00 | $40,000.00 | |
9.00000 | $80,000 | $720,000.00 | 0.90000 | $72,000.00 | $112,000.00 | |
8.10000 | $160,000 | $1,296,000.00 | 0.81000 | $129,600.00 | $241,600.00 | |
7.29000 | $320,000 | $2,332,800.00 | 0.72900 | $233,280.00 | $474,880.00 | |
6.56100 | $640,000 | $4,199,040.00 | 0.65610 | $419,904.00 | $894,784.00 | |
5.90490 | $1,280,000 | $7,558,272.00 | 0.59049 | $755,827.20 | $1,650,611.20 | |
Even in this revised scenario of cashing out 10% for every BTC price doubling, such hypothetical person has ONLY cashed out around 4.1 BTC (and he got about $1.65 million for that) from his original 10 BTC stash, and at the same time, his 5.9049 BTC stash is then worth nearly $7.6 million.
I am pretty sure that I am currently closer to the 5% per doubling scenario rather than the 10% per doubling scenario, but I still can recognize and appreciate that even a more aggressive cashing out of 10% per doubling does not necessarily deplete my BTC holdings and/or value in unacceptable ways, and each of us are still able to tweak the amounts to our own circumstances and senses.
Of course, if the hypothetical person buys back some of his sold BTC along the way, then the amount of the reduction in his BTC holdings may well not end up being as much as I am showing in these two tables... with this particular variation of the charts, there is a kind of assumption of selling at various UPpity price thresholds and not buying back with the proceeds of those on the way up BTC sales.
Edited: Fixing tables to not ONLY cause them to look nicer, but also becoming more substantively accurate based on fillippone's detection of a variation contained in my earlier amounts. Based on changes in the numbers, I changed my descriptions of the substance and my interpretation of the meaning of the tables too.
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