I also set up sells at
60k
90k
120k
150k
180k
maybe someone will fat finger
You risk having Bitcoin on some exchange instead of safely offline in cold storage?
nyknyc
Sure. it is all about ratios. if you have x btc 5-10% of it should be on an exchange set up for a fat fingered sale.
pretend you are risking 0.1 of 2.0 btc.
set it at 0.030 for 74.5k
and at 0.030 for 104.5 k
and at 0.040 for 144.5k
Then you could be like JJG
Oh I have a honey badger video for you all.
https://www.facebook.com/roaringearth/videos/243425028227744In my earliest days, I think that I might have had right around 50% of my BTC on exchanges, but spread across something like 10 or them, but that does not help too well if you get sim swapped and then the hacker is able to get into several of your accounts somewhat simultaneously. I think around 2017, I reduced my on exchange exposure to less than 25%, and then maybe 2020 or so I reduced it to around 15%, and in the last couple of years I reduced it to below 10%.. I think maybe in the ballpark of 6-7% or even less..
I think that when my Binance US order hit, for some reason that was the largest amount that I had on anyone exchange that was set up in sell orders between $30k and $130k-ish.. and my goal at that time was to have all of my sell orders set to $150k, and I was able to accomplish that on other exchanges (just smaller amounts), but on Binance US, they had some kind of a technical limit (at that time) that did not allow me to se sell orders higher than I had them set, but now they allow up to $150k, so I kept my sell orders there.... and that has pretty much been my practice since around 2015 or so when I first created my system to sell would be to have my sell orders already set up to an amount that the price could go up quickly, and throughout most of 2020 and 2021 the sell orders inched up higher and higher.. even though it is a bit crazy to keep them in place, even though the price momentum has been downity since November 2021...
I think that part of my rationale in recent times has been to keep ONLY as much value on exchanges as I have my sell orders already set, and the rest goes into cold storage (and maybe just a slight little cushion on the exchanges that might constitute a few extra sell orders if I were to want to quickly sell some extra cornz.. which usually does not happen, but I just want to be able to do it if I want to.
And getting back to binance US, gosh at most that would have had been 3% of my total BTC stash.... but I think that it was closer to 2%... so I am not sure how I am coming up with my numbers except that it was probably somewhere between 2% and 3%, and part of the reason that I was swimming from the results of all of those sell orders getting filled is because it was so unexpected to both have all of of the sell orders fill but then it was almost equally unexpected that the price came back down completely almost immediately, so I was able to buy back within about an hour or so around 60% of what I had sold (that allowed me to reestablished my sell orders) and then I just set the rest into strategic buy on the dips all the way down to $13k, but the vast majority of the extra buy on the dip orders were between $30k and $26k (every $500 increments, so that would have had been around 9 extra quantity buy on the dip orders.. and it seems that I might have had thrown some extra ones in there for good measure...
so maybe at this point, I have used about 75% of the proceeds from that fat finger mistake to make BTC buys and make extra buys and some people might be asking how can you have been able to have so much fun with only 0.63 BTC, and that sounds like a don't kiss and tell kind of a question...and by the way, even though I am also so excited about the range of all of the sales, it seems that the average price per sale was still only around $65k. so there you have it .. spilling my guts kind of an update, maybe repeating some stuff, maybe contradicting old stories and maybe even embellishing with a few fun bits.
Oh.. wow...and the honey badger video was a bit scary.. to watch..
I guess were are not yet sure that how long this bull market will be but if it will be longer than the previous one then we may see many crypto-millionaires.
Speak for ur lil selfie.
Have you ever heard of bitcoin?
I also set up sells at
60k
90k
120k
150k
180k
i just found a receipt from a btc sell back in the day.. like waaaay back like ~2012:
sold 3 btc @ $8.50 each (three bitcoins at eight dollars and fifty cents)
lol
Woa.
Can't merit that.. except maybe just to send my condolences.. and my congratulations that it was "only" three cornz.
Approximating bitcoin price 'needed' for miners to be profitable, assuming stable electricity prices:
Currently, miners are said to have full breakeven at 23.4K/btc (including equipment amortization, 21.3K without equipment amortization).
s19 was introduced 3 years ago.
S21 is introduced now, about 3 years later.
During 2020-2023 difficulty increased about 2.86X or 42% a year (186% total).
Productivity in new miner increased from 29.5 to 17.5 J/T or 59% reducing $$ for profitability to 12.64K (with no amortization), but you need to add $7K on bitcoin miner cost amortization.
Currently, S21 will make 0.216btc/year with Zero electricity cost and 0.16 btc/year with 5c electricity, so NO more than 0.1 BTC/year after halving (before subtracting costs)
Assume the miner will make 0.216btcX(5mo/12) before halving (with no network growth)=0.09 btc (before costs).
After halving, the initial electrical cost of operation would be at least 25.2K/btc produced and more in reality, depending on the rise in difficulty.
Let's assume 25.2K/btc initial electricity cost and project 42% a year difficulty growth as it was in 2020-2023.
In three years (by 2026) the break even mining cost would be at least 72K/btc.
You would also need to profit at least $7K to amortize your miner, which is currently 0.257BTC, but could be less later.
However, after halving you would only make 0.08 btc/year (start at 0.1 btc, end at 0.06btc before subtracting costs), then 0.0464 btc year two, then 0.0366 btc year three.
Therefore, assuming a fixed electricity of 5c, you would spend 1533 in years 1, 2 and 3 each, plus 7k on miner.
Total outlay about 12k (as you also pay for miner shipment)
So, you will probably produce about 0.09btc (before halving), then 0.08 btc (y1), then 0.0464 btc (y2), then 0.0366 btc (y3).
Total: 0.163 btc with 639+1533X3=$5238 in electricity cost and $7K in miner cost. Total cost: $12238
Therefore, to breakeven (or make minimal money in $$), your average bitcoin selling price should be no less than $75100/btc during the next 3 year and 5 mo.
Typically, at some point in the cycle miners become VERY profitable, so at least a double of 75K is likely to be attained at some point in the next 3 years and 5 mo.
TL;DR My approximation shows a minimum average price of 75K for miners' bitcoin sell after buying a S21 to achieve a breakeven in the next 3 years and 5 mo (assuming no repairs and a fixed electricity cost at 5c).
That still does not mean that miners have any choice. If the BTC price does not go up to above their costs, then they will have to choose their course of action accordingly, including shutting down and including difficulty adjustment to the downside which includes miners disappearing.
There is no guarantee for the BTC price to go up merely because it is currently costing the miners (as speculators) a lots of money.
We likely know that some miners are wanting to force other miners out.. that is the more efficient ones are already ready for less bullish BTC price scenarios and they will take the coins that the less efficient miners give up by either shutting down or being forced to shut down.
Poll
