Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Seller exhaustion?

Let’s hope so and we start to rally as the halving approaches.


@Pentoshi
Pretty key update today as I've tracked this for some time

Stable coin bleed stopped as discussed earlier in October, and has not made a new low now in over 3 months. It's even essentially had a very small uptick

It could be a sign that capital is finally done exiting. Another positive development

https://x.com/pentosh1/status/1715847424982360176

Pretty much all up from here. Any dips at this point are a massive buy. Next year, and the following, will be pretty damn awesome. Actual big money will be coming in this time, the events of the world are now aligning for the greatest BTC bull run of all.

Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.

Bitcoin looks pretty cyclical to me.

140-150K would be fine honestly, but, the world is going to shit in a major way and that essentially means lots of money creation via fiscal policy. It won't stop either because if it does governments will be in a very tricky spot. Look at the current US deficit, and this is before a response to any major economic crisis. 

[1714202826]

1714202826

[1714202826]

1714202826

[1714202826]

1714202826

[1714202826]

1714202826

[1714202826]

1714202826

[Biodom]

Seller exhaustion?

Let’s hope so and we start to rally as the halving approaches.


@Pentoshi
Pretty key update today as I've tracked this for some time

Stable coin bleed stopped as discussed earlier in October, and has not made a new low now in over 3 months. It's even essentially had a very small uptick

It could be a sign that capital is finally done exiting. Another positive development

https://x.com/pentosh1/status/1715847424982360176

Pretty much all up from here. Any dips at this point are a massive buy. Next year, and the following, will be pretty damn awesome. Actual big money will be coming in this time, the events of the world are now aligning for the greatest BTC bull run of all.

Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.

Bitcoin looks pretty cyclical to me.

140-150K would be fine honestly, but, the world is going to shit in a major way and that essentially means lots of money creation via fiscal policy. It won't stop either because if it does governments will be in a very tricky spot. Look at the current US deficit, and this is before a response to any major economic crisis.  

yes, of course it is cyclical (so far). By linearly I meant: we expect something...and exactly that happens with some small deviation.
Bitcoin is mostly tangential to local expectations while being within a long term repetitive four year cycles which may or may not continue to be as drastic as before.
So far, interestingly, the tops are getting less pronounced with each cycle, but bottoms remain quite severe, which is somewhat paradoxical, in my opinion.

[JayJuanGee]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9zitIm432k

There exists a much less discussed but incredibly influential member of the silk road story. That man, is variety jones. The secret and forgotten mastermind of the entire operation.

Nice Share for people who join this forum just few years ago.    

Silk Road was at least in the very beginning a very placid environment where like minded people came to share a common goal that goal just happened to be highly illegal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9zitIm432k

Hey JJg, you have a cameo as well as a few other members.

There is a silk road thread on Bitcointalk.org also that was very much active from Mar 1, 2011 to  Jun 15, 2011. JJG is the only one I know there.

I did not really know much about bitcoin until November 2013, and I did not join the forum until February 2014.  The ONLY place that I saw myself or my username was that I had merited one of the cited posts - which surely the merit system first started in January 2018.

Well, if that dev Bob cited is right, then Lightning is apparently cooked unless a fix is possible.
If so, Phil has a solid argument as you cannot accommodate coffee buying on bitcoin (without Lightning).

Do I care? Not much as my infrequent txs can still be posted, but it (bitcoin) cannot be a medium of exchange for the planet.
Is BitVM any better? I have no clue, maybe it is too new.

Perplexed.

Last time I'd check, Bitcoin and Lightning was still being developed and improvements are being sort and worked through...

am I missing something?.... the narrative over the last a few pages make it seem like, that is it! we are fucked! nothing can be done to solve buying a coffee!

stop being a BTC maxer and let LTC/Doge do the lite work.

BTW I will be driving to the mine and dropping in 550th of BTC miners and zero Scrypt miners.

Poor shitcoiner Philima1957 can't phantom that his beloved shitcoins wil never be able to carry all that global adoption weight that will irrevocable lead to implosion.

Netherless, Twitter should have been exploded by now if Lightning is in serious trouble. This is a bump along the way to completion, enough brainpower available fixing it.

Relax, have a nice weekend.

It does seem that Phil does get a bit distracted sometimes, and also a bit distracted into meaningless nonsense, and sure he might think that someone's gotta mine shitcoins, which truly is not the case.  He was mining that piece of shit, aka ethereum, up until the day that they pulled the rugs on him and sure he complained a bit about their pulling the rug, but it is not like they did not tell him that they were going to pull the rug for like 5 or more years prior to actually pulling it.. so some people (miners) felt some kind of need to mine that crap.. including that they were making profits (and some of them were so excited to contribute to a crappy project), until they weren't..

....30k in under a day yea!

Then a dump back to 25k and we do it all over again, hello.

You deserve a slappening for that negative nancy comment, sirazimuth

By the way, last time I checked, less than 10 sats per vbyte to send transactions is not exactly going to kill anyone... and surely the current mempool status and even in the last three weeks, seems to have had been clearing 2-4 sats per byte without too many difficulties... .. which is $0.20 to $1 per transaction, unless maybe you are combining addresses, but you can send $100 or even $1billion for the same fee.  Not exactly expensive or broken... but hey, whine all you like.  It's a free country the last time I checked..

For a lot of us, the point was to get away from filthy fiat. The current state of the world financially should have been a huge boon for Bitcoin.

The last time I checked, just a few minutes ago, bitcoin is doing quite well.

Inflation frequently hanging out near double digits screams for an alternative. But when adoption turned to disadoption and the Bitcoin ecosystem withered away, a lot of incentive is lost when you have to deal with exchanges which represent counterparty risk and loss of privacy under US laws.

There are a variety of ways to use bitcoin, even if you might initially get your BTC through some 3rd party KYC service.  Many exchanges still offer abilities to remove BTC from exchanges, which quite a few people do.. not everyone but quite a few, and surely we still are going to need to see how some of these self-custody versus 3rd party custody matters are going to play out.  The mere fact that there are various attack vectors and potential attack vectors on bitcoin does not necessarily take away from bitcoin's current power or that fact that bitcoin is quite likely going to continue to be powerful, and if you don't believe in the number go up angle of bitcoin, then diversify out of it, and if you are concerned about some of the lack of autonomy angles what are you going to do? 

Is there some other project that is better than bitcoin to be in?  Are you thinking about some supposedly powerful shitcoin because bitcoin still retains quite a lot of its original qualities that make it difficult to change, which seems to remain a feature rather than a bug... were you wanting to change bitcoin in some kind of a way?

You want to make it so that others do not create financial instruments around it and try to trick people out of their bitcoin?  Yes, a lot of them are going to have luck in terms of getting people to buy their products rather than holding their own keys, but I have my doubts about whether that is going to break bitcoin in the future.. even though you seem to be wanting to suggest that bitcoin is currently broken because there are people/institutions and governments inspiring various attacks on bitcoin, but they have not succeeded yet.. the last time I checked, in spite of your ongoing  whining and seemingly negative nancy tendencies.

[WatChe]

I did not really know much about bitcoin until November 2013, and I did not join the forum until February 2014.  The ONLY place that I saw myself or my username was that I had merited one of the cited posts - which surely the merit system first started in January 2018.

This is what I was referring. All users from that thread are not active anyone. The only thing familiar to me was a merit from our beloved JayJuanGee.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

But my aim is not to convince anyone here and now, just plant seeds for when people start to open their eyes for themselves.

Thanks for the warning... I get the sense that now I am going to be better prepared to be able to panic in the future when "we" bitcoiners have continued to fail/refuse to sufficiently build and prepare like you would like to happen in these here parts.

What do you suggest?  BIGGER blocks?  A change in BTC's governance? Or something else?

You ruined my sandwich.

Not everyone can be in a position of making a sandwich, especially during the more exciting times in bitcoinlandia.

Dollar buys half of RE in comparison with 2020:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/home-prices-high-mortgage-rates-how-much-money-to-afford-rcna120801

That said...
..If you had $324K (worth an average house price) on Jan 1 2020 in the bank, you could buy only about 3/4 of a house (if you are buying in "cash" and with current average house prices at $446 thou), but
..if you had $324K in SP500, you can still buy that house as SP500 went proportionally up (SPY from 321.7 to 421.19, roughly matching the rise in house prices)
...if you had $324K in bitcoin back then (34.5 btc), you can buy two averagely priced houses right now with no mortgage (if you want 'em) and have about $100K leftover (0.34 house).

Bottom line is that in this case you would be essentially unaffected by the affordability crisis described in the link.
Just FYI and another description of why it "pays" to be in bitcoin, long term.

I kind of like your set up Biodom - but still from where are you getting your numbers for BTC?  

When I look at January 2020, I see BTC prices around $8k, so if I put $324k into BTC I get right around 40.5 BTC, and so if I look at current BTC prices, $1.215 million (which is about a 3.75x price appreciation.. .which is quite a bit more than double appreciation for BTC prices.

Ps. Even if I calculate from your numbers of 34.5 BTC (which is a BTC price of about $9,400 in January 2020), yet at the time that I type this post, that 34.5 BTC is still valued at more than $1 million which would still be more than 3x the value of $324k rather merely a doubling of value... and of course, we might not need to be so selective about the time frames that we attempt to compare, because we also likely realize that the longer time frame that we use to look back at BTC versus real estate, BTC prices are greatly outperforming real estate price appreciations... which could put any bitcoiner (hodler and/or accumulator) in a decently good position if they are trying to figure out how to save up for being able to get into a home purchase.

https://www.theblock.co/post/258844/bitcoin-dominance-hits-highest-point-in-over-two-years
"Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market has surged to over 49%, its highest level in more than two years"

It's a pretty dumb and misleading metric.

I did not really know much about bitcoin until November 2013, and I did not join the forum until February 2014.  The ONLY place that I saw myself or my username was that I had merited one of the cited posts - which surely the merit system first started in January 2018.

This is what I was referring. All users from that thread are not active anyone. The only thing familiar to me was a merit from our beloved JayJuanGee.    

Ok.. Fair enough.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinGuru101]

As discussed before Bitcoin price has broken the upper channel trend line resistance. Must confirm it as a support to see more upward price movement. If confirmed, the channel breakout target is $47k this will not happen in one shot but eventually.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very good position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.

The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.

[machasm]

Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very prestigious position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.

The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.

Good luck with the move.
I know I sold some BTC a few years ago to pay off my mortgage and although those same BTC today would easily be worth a sh*t load more, I don’t regret the decision as life for both my wife and I has been pretty much stress free since owning our own home.
Besides, even though we are never satisfied with our stack, we are not ‘uncomfortable’.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Nobody should feel sad buying a home with bitcoin. I bought my house with fiat from selling bitcoin in the last bull run. Isn’t that why we got into bitcoin, to make life better? What do we gain by HODLING until death, not enjoying some of the fruits of our labor?

I will sell more bitcoin in 2025 and buy multiple rental properties also.

[AlcoHoDL]

Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very prestigious position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.

The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.

Best of luck in your new home/location/work. I can fully relate, as I'm in a very similar situation. Will almost mirror your moves, but not just yet... It's not related to the price of Bitcoin, it's just not the right time for me. But it's close, and the price of Bitcoin will hopefully almost certainly be much higher by that time, which will make things much smoother and the decisions much easier to make.

We only live once, there's likely no afterlife, so we'd better make the most of it while we can. Our stash will be worth nothing to us if we end up old, sick and unable to enjoy it.

+1 WOsMerit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Looking at a two year chart of Bitcoin’s price and I think it’s the most bullish chart setup I’ve ever seen. Of course that probably means we’re in for a big drop since what the market does best is takes people’s money, but I feel pretty confident at the moment that we’re about to start heading upward in a major way in the somewhat near future.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Seller exhaustion?

Let’s hope so and we start to rally as the halving approaches.


@Pentoshi
Pretty key update today as I've tracked this for some time

Stable coin bleed stopped as discussed earlier in October, and has not made a new low now in over 3 months. It's even essentially had a very small uptick

It could be a sign that capital is finally done exiting. Another positive development

https://x.com/pentosh1/status/1715847424982360176

Pretty much all up from here. Any dips at this point are a massive buy. Next year, and the following, will be pretty damn awesome. Actual big money will be coming in this time, the events of the world are now aligning for the greatest BTC bull run of all.

Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.

If you add following low/high after 2017 that would be from $3k to $69k is another 20x. Current low is $15k x20 = ~$300k range.
 
Will it happen again? Probability is plausible because all those ETF's coming is a powerfull pump force to be reckoned with.

[BitcoinGuru101]

Money Flow In Crypto !
Bitcoin Pumped
< Large Cap Pumping
 < Mid Cap starting
< Low Caps Soon

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com