Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

Just sold some at 36303 coinbase.

no it was 36363

maybe we go past 37k

we peaked at about 36633

Selling?!?! WTF my dude. If there’s one thing I learned early on with Bitcoin, it’s that it’s better to wait and sell on the way down then to sell on the way up. You’re no newbie to the 4 year cycle. Surely you must be expecting BTC to hit deep into six figure territory 18 months from now. Does this mean you aren’t dollar cost averaging anymore?

[1714658027]

1714658027

[Biodom]

@phil...Unless politics will be totally screwy, I am planning to stay put no matter the bitcoin price.
GDP per capita in US is higher than in UK and Germany, albeit lower than in Switzerland and, interestingly, Ireland, which means that salaries are typically higher in US as well.
The long term cap gains are manageable, too, at 20-23.8% (with no taxes on the first 89K for a couple and 15% on the first $553K).
Take 89K per year with no taxes, use it on whatever (regular salary covers everything else): real estate, investment in private companies, etc, etc.
89k is very roughly $1mil house mortgage plus RE taxes in lower RE tax places like California.
In TX, a higher RE tax (was about 1.6%/year, effectively; now prop 4 just passed, so it would be lower by about 15%, so maybe about 1.4%) but you get "more house".

Phil, Biodom,

I have often thought of leaving the USA should I get rich (not quite there yet).  The problem is finding a nice "Plan B" country, which over the years I have given a lot of thought to.  My first inclinations were to look at South & Central America, as I speak the language and have some familiarity with some of those countries.  One country in particular I looked at in detail, as I have nice in-laws there, the food is good, etc.  But the politics of ALL those countries is very volatile, can drastically change on a dime...

Europe sort of looks good, but most is expensive.  And the cultures just different enough so that I would feel like, well, a foreigner.  Europe is pretty diverse, and I have not visited all of the many countries there.  Weather (cold) is an issue that I do take into account as well.  I do understand why many Americans would be happy to look at somewhere in Europe.

I've even visited and looked at Dubai, which has some strong plusses and minuses.  Rest of Asia?  No thanks.

Even with our chaos, the USA still looks relatively good to me vs. all the other countries I have visited and/or examined.

Things can change though, and probably will.  I'm leaving my options open.

Australia
Italy
Argentina


Based on the size of my wife's family and here relatives I have met the three above could work.

My main issue is my wife and I have 3 pensions all paid by US fed government so I would need quite a bit of money to leave the USA.

Australia...great cities (a couple always score in the top 5-10 worldwide), very safe. Negatives: real estate is overvalued and maybe a bit too much sun (relatively high incidence of skin cancers).
Italy...sounds great...sometimes I dream about the hills of Tuscany..maybe images from some movies about the Roman empire, perhaps. If so, find a place that is a blue zone (check the wiki)..I know that Sardinia is one of them, maybe some others as well...could extend the life by a good 5-10 years or even longer.
Argentina...no opinion, but it used to be up, now down, which means it has an up potential right now. With their inflation, bitcoin could be a godsend there.

[WatChe]

Why not $500 million per corn, then?  That's reasonable.  What about $500million in the next 6-18 months?  How many of "us" would still be holding by then?  and if so how much would we be holding?

What would be use of $500 million/coin as JJG has refrained us from selling our coins. On even $500 million/coin, JJG would tell us that he has average buying price at 999$ and he is still HODLing for indefinite period.

Haha what line, by dear Bruce Lee, I'm sure when he said that He was pointing to the Bitcoin accumulator ahaa don't rush I know he was a visionary person maybe he met Satoshi when Stoshi was a newborn.

This line fit everywhere my friend whether its BTC HODLer, an academic student, business person or any other field. My aim for Bitcoin price is $100k TBH.

[Biodom]

Just sold some at 36303 coinbase.

no it was 36363

maybe we go past 37k

we peaked at about 36633

Selling?!?! WTF my dude. If there’s one thing I learned early on with Bitcoin, it’s that it’s better to wait and sell on the way down then to sell on the way up. You’re no newbie to the 4 year cycle. Surely you must be expecting BTC to hit deep into six figure territory 18 months from now. Does this mean you aren’t dollar cost averaging anymore?

yea, for some reason @phil and @jjg always sell on the way up instead of on the way down (or maybe they sell both, I lost track).
you don't sell in an early bull, unless you have to due to mining electricity bills, etc.

[OROBTC]

...

I have not been to Australia, so I don't have a good opinion to offer.  It is far away from everywhere else, and there are lots of nasty plants and animals there, but that info is just from my reading.

Argentina has been a candidate.  Good food, yeah...  But, yes, you would need a lot of Bitcoin to be secure, as their governments change policies so often.  Perhaps Mr. Milei will win the upcoming election, his ideas might be good for Argentina.  Of course, any good could be erased when the Peronistas win in the future.

Ahh..., Italia!  Excellent food everywhere I have visited there. But, again, arrive rich with lots of hard to confiscate BTC.  The Italian language is close enough to Spanish so that I would not get heartburn learning it.


EDIT: I sold BTC in small pieces from around $30,000 up through the $60s, then down to about $45,000.  I then wondered if I had sold too much (yes, in retrospect), so I did my imperfect version of DCA buying from around $40,000 down to the low, and since back up until a small purchase just a few days ago.  All in small pieces, poco-a-poco.

Bitcoin has been good to me...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

Well shit, birthdays cancelled.

[Greyhats]

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!


Green ba-doiiiinggg!

[fillippone]

Explanation
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Observing 36,750@Stamp

I smell FOMO in the air.
preparing for an ETF induced God Candle.
My body is ready.

[JayJuanGee]

Liking this action consolidating at $35k.

Let us not rush things.

Yeah, I much prefer a slower, calmer, incremental rise. Then BANG the long awaited Spot ETF approvals, BANG halving, $250,000 per coin in 2025

People who want fast movement will suffer a fast fall that's why we should enjoy what Bitcoin currently have and its gradual increase is already good so far. This gradual changes indicates that we are having a good run next year so provably huge price will come at and see if this $100k or your $250k price target will be reach so hodl guys.  

If you had never noticed (and/or realized) dee cornz does not tend to do gradual very well.

Maybe some day it will grow up, but I have my doubts that my lil precious will be growing up very much any time soon.

Liking this action consolidating at $35k.

Let us not rush things.

Yeah, I much prefer a slower, calmer, incremental rise. Then BANG the long awaited Spot ETF approvals, BANG halving, $250,000 per coin in 2025

Man, that would be the best day of our life when we see Bitcoin at $250k a coin in year 2025. I think Bitcoin might reach $130k per coin in 2025 but men I wish my prediction to go wrong and instead of reaching $130k Bitcoin may reach $250k and the words from your mouth may become a realty.

It is ONLY slightly less than double, and it seems to me that a $4k to $10k peak in 2017 would have been more than fine, but instead we got a top that was anywhere from 2x to 5x greater than we had anticipated to even be within the cards.. so sometimes (maybe even frequently) surprises happen, even if such surprises to the UPside are not guaranteed.

Why not $500 million per corn, then?  That's reasonable.  What about $500million in the next 6-18 months?  How many of "us" would still be holding by then?  and if so how much would we be holding?

What would be use of $500 million/coin as JJG has refrained us from selling our coins. On even $500 million/coin, JJG would tell us that he has average buying price at 999$ and he is still HODLing for indefinite period.

I am not sure exactly what I would be telling you, but I do try to do my best to adjust my story to the times... I will tell you that much.  

Just sold some at 36303 coinbase.

no it was 36363

maybe we go past 37k

we peaked at about 36633

Selling?!?! WTF my dude. If there’s one thing I learned early on with Bitcoin, it’s that it’s better to wait and sell on the way down then to sell on the way up. You’re no newbie to the 4 year cycle. Surely you must be expecting BTC to hit deep into six figure territory 18 months from now. Does this mean you aren’t dollar cost averaging anymore?

yea, for some reason @phil and @jjg always sell on the way up instead of on the way down (or maybe they sell both, I lost track).
you don't sell in an early bull, unless you have to due to mining electricity bills, etc.

It has worked pretty damned well for me since 2015, and I likely have told my story quite a few times, so I doubt that it is worth repeating, especially if you don't seem to be getting dee idears.

Now Phil, on the other hand, he his a recent convert to HODLing BTC, and maye he has ONLY been doing such a thing for maybe 1 & a half cycles or so, and so I could not speak to the extent that he may well be screwing things up.. because Phil was selling BTC in mid -2022 at around $20k and I was buying down to about $15,500-ish.. even though I did kind of run out of money in the sub $20ks, so my buys were not that great between $15,500-ish and $19.5k-ish  I could go through my records, but why?  I already gave the general jist, and I don't have any problems with what I am doing,.. it is working quite well for me, including that I have sensed that I am (and have continuously been) well over-allocated in BTC since 2015. and I have never gotten to a point in which I have not been overallocated into BTC.. not even close, and I think that the most I ever sold was when I got close to 10% cash in late 2017, but my memory is a wee bit foggie about that, so if you really would like to discuss, I could go back and try to see if I can conjure up some more specifics, to the extent it may well be relevant to anything that matters to anyone else besides yours truly (and the hater wannabes).

 

P.s. By the way, Biodom just because you and OgNasty seem to agree on some kind of system that is the opposite of yours truly (or maybe you don't agree on a system, but you rather agree that you don't like my system, even though you don't really seem to appreciate the over-allocation angle of my system), that does not necessarily mean that you got it all figured out, but it may mean that you found something that is comfortable for you, including in terms of your making sure that you don't invest too much into BTC (aka whimpy), just in case dee cornz might not perform as well as some of your other traditional asset diversions.

Bitcoin has been good to me...

Me too.

[vroom]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[snowpega]

Observing 36,750@Stamp

I smell FOMO in the air.
preparing for an ETF induced God Candle.
My body is ready.

I'm feeling the bad smell FOMO too...

As the market break the resistance of 36k last night maybe due to the approval news of ETF and mojoritys saying 50k too soon well if ETF not approve .... Will market stay in fake sentiments Zone? Or correct itself....

[OgNasty]

I’ve never been called a wimpy BTC investor before, but I like it. I don’t have a system. I just stack BTC. Been stacking since before I had grey hair. Still drive the same car. Still live in the same house. I do intend to spend a little on a Cybertruck, but other than that I don’t have much need to part with my BTC. Pretty sure I don’t even remember my wallet password anymore. I think I still have some BTC somewhere though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JimboToronto]

$37k at Stamp

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Homeybadger is beginning to stir…..



@MortensenBach
BTC  - Bullflag break on higher timeframes after 3 years of consolidation usually results in New All Time Highs. Is this time any different?💥🚀

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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