Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[1714909390]

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[philipma1957]

although I listed some for sale at $39,876.50

i listed some for sale too, but at ~$120k usd

Yeah I ladder up a bit .

39k
49k
75k

85k
95k
105k

115k
125k
135k

$120k - $135k is not even 2x and those numbers should have been reached previous bullrun. This time another halving with tighter supply and ETF's in play. Add $50k - $100k on top of your bearish outcome.

today I made 30 posts. so I guess the bull has me going.

My projection is 500k for this cycle in fall of 2025.

48 k end of 2023
70k right at the 1/2 ing
111k Dec 2024
500k dec 2025

It's possible, but unlikely.
Most likely btc will be dominated by ETF and ETF will be dominated by institutions and those are prone to take massive profits periodically, causing the curve NOt to be exponential.
I still think it will be $140-150K at the next peak with next bottom at maybe $60-70K, then to $300-350K at the peak after (in 2028-2029) with $1mil-ish by around 2032-2033.
Additionally, I kind of expect a sharp dip in almost everything within the next two-three months to "allow" the Fed to "cleanly" switch to an easier policy.

I watched and held gold as it went sideways for over ten years 1992 to 2002. it is more than five x that.

so maybe you are correct and btc only does 5x to 190k from the 38k it did today.

or maybe it goes 5 x from our 69k high which is 345k

[OgNasty]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

[hisslyness]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree... I am still waiting on a buddy of mine to ask me to buy him Bitcoin again.. He's been a reliable indicator of when ATH will be in!... Predicted the last 2 ATH.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree... I am still waiting on a buddy of mine to ask me to buy him Bitcoin again.. He's been a reliable indicator of when ATH will be in!... Predicted the last 2 ATH.

Yes, I have a buddy like that as well and so far he has been silent. However, the pitching of a shitcoin by an acquaintance is definitely a red flag for me that the shitcoin market is getting hot in the short term. When I start getting Facebook messages from friends telling me they’re buying Bitcoin then I’ll feel like the ATH is near, but that’s still probably a ways off.

[OutOfMemory]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

Maybe an early bird, who will be selling the next correction and call cr**to a scam until 2025 ATH, when he will cash out his life insurance to buy in again...

[hisslyness]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree... I am still waiting on a buddy of mine to ask me to buy him Bitcoin again.. He's been a reliable indicator of when ATH will be in!... Predicted the last 2 ATH.

Yes, I have a buddy like that as well and so far he has been silent. However, the pitching of a shitcoin by an acquaintance is definitely a red flag for me that the shitcoin market is getting hot in the short term. When I start getting Facebook messages from friends telling me they’re buying Bitcoin then I’ll feel like the ATH is near, but that’s still probably a ways off.

Let’s remember these post and quote it when they make contact… Funny thing, I am sitting across the backyard bbq/fire from him, not a mention of Bitcoin yet, and I will not mention anything… it only works if he initiates the conversation!…

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[bitcoinPsycho]

Let the volatility commence 

[Lucius]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree... I am still waiting on a buddy of mine to ask me to buy him Bitcoin again.. He's been a reliable indicator of when ATH will be in!... Predicted the last 2 ATH.

I'm sure no one will ask me anything until we hit the last ATH, and unless the SEC decides Santa Claus is coming earlier this year I don't have a feeling we'll cross $50k by the end of this year. Personally, I wouldn't have anything against such a gift under the pine tree, and I don't believe anyone else who understands that 2024/25 will be the year when there will probably be a lot of talk about Bitcoin in the mainstream media.

When someone asks me when is the best time to buy Bitcoin, I usually say that it was when you last asked me the same question. I understand people who only want to invest in the short term and make a profit as soon as possible, but I don't understand at all that they still think that Bitcoin is some kind of online fraud that can fail at any moment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[El duderino_]

Well, it has happened. I got contacted by someone I know to pitch me on a shitcoin. That typically means the rally is about over with for now and a correction is due. Will that happen? Not sure. The first sign of a top is in for me personally though. As for my buddy, they’re betting the farm on SOL, which they also did at its peak in 2021. So I’m slightly less bullish now than I was yesterday, but long term I feel we’re still looking good.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree... I am still waiting on a buddy of mine to ask me to buy him Bitcoin again.. He's been a reliable indicator of when ATH will be in!... Predicted the last 2 ATH.

Yes, I have a buddy like that as well and so far he has been silent. However, the pitching of a shitcoin by an acquaintance is definitely a red flag for me that the shitcoin market is getting hot in the short term. When I start getting Facebook messages from friends telling me they’re buying Bitcoin then I’ll feel like the ATH is near, but that’s still probably a ways off.

Let’s remember these post and quote it when they make contact… Funny thing, I am sitting across the backyard bbq/fire from him, not a mention of Bitcoin yet, and I will not mention anything… it only works if he initiates the conversation!…

Hmmm bbq weather…
For here only rain and cold days… 🙃

[JayJuanGee]

although I listed some for sale at $39,876.50

i listed some for sale too, but at ~$120k usd

Yeah I ladder up a bit .

39k
49k
75k

85k
95k
105k

115k
125k
135k

$120k - $135k is not even 2x and those numbers should have been reached previous bullrun. This time another halving with tighter supply and ETF's in play. Add $50k - $100k on top of your bearish outcome.

today I made 30 posts. so I guess the bull has me going.

My projection is 500k for this cycle in fall of 2025.

48 k end of 2023
70k right at the 1/2 ing
111k Dec 2024
500k dec 2025

It's possible, but unlikely.
Most likely btc will be dominated by ETF and ETF will be dominated by institutions and those are prone to take massive profits periodically, causing the curve NOt to be exponential.
I still think it will be $140-150K at the next peak with next bottom at maybe $60-70K, then to $300-350K at the peak after (in 2028-2029) with $1mil-ish by around 2032-2033.
Additionally, I kind of expect a sharp dip in almost everything within the next two-three months to "allow" the Fed to "cleanly" switch to an easier policy.

Your price predictions seem a bit conservative (but maybe not quite bearish), but they are not unreasonable because that still wouild be a considerable amount of UPpity, but still nowhere even close to the UPpity levels (in terms of percentages) of previous cycles.. so sure that might end up being true - except we still have a situation in which only around 1% (if not less) of the world's population actually own BTC, so even with these various kinds of investment vehicles, bitcoin still has a lot of potential to actualy be bought by a lot of normies and without having access or usage of those kinds of investment vehicles..

which sure, I am not really disputing the power of those kinds of investment vehicle, but there is also quite a bit of power in individuals to take their own coins and their own custody and not to be using either those kinds of investment vehicles and/or if they purchase their BTC on exchanges to not hold very much value on exchanges.  Sure there are current efforts to outlaw and/or restrict self-custody, yet I have my doubts that people are just going to agree to that kind of bullshit, rather than that kind of bullshit ending up hurting certain jurisdictions rather than being able to extend BIG DADDY government hands across jurisdictions... I have my doubts about whether all of the goverrnments are going to be wiling to go along with those kinds of controls.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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