Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Greyhats]

for 2024 I tripled my dca amounts, and i did a little bit of guessing;

- I think that for this year my avg cost price will be about 45k$usd
- 2025 ATH will be about 140k$usd and with the next correction cycle the ATL will be 49k - 56k$usd range

My thought process is that I'm accumulating now in 2024 at the probably the next ATL range in 2026/7.

Im not overly concerned about avg cost price, and that was my biggest learning from 2023. I ran the numbers and I would prefer to have more btc and higher avg cost price, than less btc and a lower cost price.

I'm quite liking the resiliency of the btc market in light of all this etf stuff, i'm starting to think that this might disrupt the 4 yr cycle though in the future. I would imagine too that the skittishness of wall street may also cause deeper dips too, as much as people are bullish on new money entering the market, the money leaving the market could also increase. Is it about to get wilder in the wild wild west?

 

[Biodom]

Greyscale will sell much more.

This is just the start of a soul crushing multi-month pre-halving correction.

Consolidation during summer.

It will go up again q4 with a possible ATH.

Real fun starts in 2025, until that happens i will remain extremely bearish.

Sorry..

Greyscale sells, others buy that much AND a bit more...so who cares if they sell or not?
Remain whatever you are...maybe don't come back and stay bearish?

[Biodom]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Yea....so what if others pick it up and more.
This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance).
I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying.

[Lucius]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

I think the end of those sales is very far away considering that the Grayscale has accumulated a huge amount of BTC over the years and now it's time for them to profit. Apparently, only a small number of people understood that the approval of BTC ETFs will not have a positive but the exact opposite effect on the price considering the conversion that happened when it comes to Grayscale.

Looking at the bigger picture, nothing bad is happening - everyone who thinks the price is too high will have the opportunity to buy cheaper, and on the other hand, the more Grayscale sells, the better for the future. Such a concentration of BTC in the possession of only one company is always nothing but a big risk.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Investors are migrating to other ETF with lower fee and I think Grayscale has to sell their holdings to meet up.
If nothing is done about their fee
Then more investors would bail out leading to more sell out.
I doubt changes would be made since the CEO believes 1.5% is right and others wouldn't survive with their low fee.

Disadvantage of such  power in the hands of a single firm.

[WatChe]

I think the end of those sales is very far away considering that the Grayscale has accumulated a huge amount of BTC over the years and now it's time for them to profit. Apparently, only a small number of people understood that the approval of BTC ETFs will not have a positive but the exact opposite effect on the price considering the conversion that happened when it comes to Grayscale.

Looking at the bigger picture, nothing bad is happening - everyone who thinks the price is too high will have the opportunity to buy cheaper, and on the other hand, the more Grayscale sells, the better for the future. Such a concentration of BTC in the possession of only one company is always nothing but a big risk.

There is sell off of around 2 billions dollars worth of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) after its conversion into ETF. Majority of this chunk coming from FTX, who sold all his 22 million shares (around 1 Billion USD) of Grayscale's ETF [1].

Such news defiantly have an impact on Bitcoin price for short duration but not in the long run. We have a dip day before yesterday and today also Bitcoin price is a bit down. Let these news of ETF's, sell-off go away and we will resume our normal journey of Bitcoin. Things will get more clear in coming 10 to 15 days.


[1] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/01/22/ftx-sold-about-1b-of-grayscales-bitcoin-etf-explaining-much-of-outflow-sources/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Pretty relentless, sustained selling. It has to end soon, surely?

We’re down from $49,000 to $39,700 since ETF approval today.

Fuck Grayscale.

[DaRude]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Yea....so what if others pick it up and more.
This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance).
I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying.

As of 19th GBTC had BTC566,973 in the fund, the claim that they lost BTC18,3k today, and the days isn't even over, is hard for me to believe but would be nice to see, pull that band-aid off already! Where the 534 000BTC number came from i couldn't follow at all   percentage of dormant bitcoin in GBTC would be interesting to speculate on, but they've been seeing average outflows of about BTC12k per trading day, so at this rate about 46 more trading days until they hit 0.

And that's the root of the problem, market doesn't believe that others are picking it up and more

Bloomber
Crypto Funds Saw Outflows Last Week After Debut of Bitcoin ETFs
Global demand for cryptocurrency investment products eased last week, with funds seeing $21 million in outflows, according to a report from CoinShares.

This doesn't line up with my numbers, but after reading into it i realized that they're talking about all crypto (including shitcoins) but according to their source bitcoin only outflow is even worse at $-24,7MM they only have $656MM inflow under "Other" category which i couldn't really follow

[philipma1957]

I got 2 pieces in the 39.5k - 39.8k range.


My Ladder goes down to 33224


Get your corn on sale

[AlcoHoDL]

Tom Petty - Free Fallin'

At least it's a good song...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

is this part of the ride?

[Agapios]

Hi guys in last month I have been always asking my self one question, one scenario about ETF and I dont see such thing mentioned on news, so if someone can please explains me what i am thinking wrong, because i bet there is some protection again such scenario or I am thinking something on wrong way.

So like i understand largest bitcoin holders (if we count out Satoshi Nakamoto who could benefit even more) have around 100k bitcoins right ? and if someone out of them would put all on them at once on sell he would drag price down a lot right ? I assume we would go down to 30k, 20k ?

So why he cant do this if he have money to also enter into ETF big scale. Or perhaps thats plan of people at Blackrock, Grayscale?

I am thinking on next scenario.
One of top bitcoin holders enter ETF, put shorts on ETF, dump all their bitcoin, wait for dust to settle, close shorts on ETF, he go LONG, he buys again bitcoin

What am i thinking wrong ? if Satoshi nakamoto was some big company who could quickly buy ETF on large scale he could get fast insanely right and get a hold of even larger sum of bitcoin ?
What am i thinking wrong? This probably cant happen because of?

[BitcoinBunny]

When in doubt, zoom out.  

[AlcoHoDL]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Pretty relentless, sustained selling. It has to end soon, surely?

We’re down from $49,000 to $39,700 since ETF approval today.

Fuck Grayscale.

Yup. That's a 20% drop. We are used to these, but still, after the pre-ETF euphoria, this feels odd to say the least. Not too worried about it, but it does feel like a let down if I'm honest. I even persuaded a friend to invest in a couple of coins pre-ETF... Losing $10k+ in 2 weeks is no fun for a Bitcoin noob.

Hopefully, the selling spree will end soon and UPpity will resume. Got to play Irish for a little while longer it seems... GTCTTWW.

[Hyperjacked]

Tom Petty - Free Fallin'

At least it's a good song...

We all saw this coming a mile away… ETF and Media drama = High Volatility
This 2 shall pass… one bitcoin = one bitcoin
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/19/bitcoin-ftx-gbtc-etf-grayscale

[ivomm]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Yea....so what if others pick it up and more.
This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance).
I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying.

As of 19th GBTC had BTC566,973 in the fund, the claim that they lost BTC18,3k today, and the days isn't even over, is hard for me to believe but would be nice to see, pull that band-aid off already! Where the 534 000BTC number came from i couldn't follow at all   percentage of dormant bitcoin in GBTC would be interesting to speculate on, but they've been seeing average outflows of about BTC12k per trading day, so at this rate about 46 more trading days until they hit 0.

And that's the root of the problem, market doesn't believe that others are picking it up and more

Bloomber
Crypto Funds Saw Outflows Last Week After Debut of Bitcoin ETFs
Global demand for cryptocurrency investment products eased last week, with funds seeing $21 million in outflows, according to a report from CoinShares.

This doesn't line up with my numbers, but after reading into it i realized that they're talking about all crypto (including shitcoins) but according to their source bitcoin only outflow is even worse at $-24,7MM they only have $656MM inflow under "Other" category which i couldn't really follow

When I wrote this post on https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50 there was data for 21th Jan, showing 14K outflow to 552K BTC. Later they deleted it and now it shows 566K. May it was a mistake, since 21st was Sunday. Tomorrow we will know what are the outfolws for today.