Let's say for example if we have an average cost of $1k per BTC or maybe even way less, as Jimbo proclaims to have something like 2 digits on his average cost, but anyhow, for the ease of illustration and maybe even to help guys to relate a bit, then maybe if you are currently around 40x in profits and in the whole scheme of things, it does not make very much difference if you ended up selling some of those coins in 39x profits or if you could have had gotten 49x in profits.
Whales are called whales for a reason. They are the one who put there money and trust in Bitcoin when others were laughing on this new discovery. They are called Whales today because they bought Bitcoin at lower prices and are now ruling the market.
I think that even though there could be some overlap, the topic of whales is a bit of a different topic, even though someone who is really able to buy and hold in the real early days (such as in early 2013 or prior to 2013, or even prior to 2012 could have really become a whale with a fairly modest investment level of perhaps less than $10k investment in the real early days, but surely depends on what we might call a whale.. Do we need more than 1,000 BTC or would 500BTC be enough? I know that these numbers are changing, but even by 2013, there would have needed to have been maybe a bit more than $10k invested to get more than 10k coins.. perhaps in the ballpark of $13-$15k. . and sure maybe we could say more than 1,000 coins is a whale, but I am not sure about 500-1,000 coins.. perhaps currently bordering upon whale status.. but not quite there yet.
It could well be that in 10-15 years, then having more than 100 BTC might start to be getting to whale status.. so maybe it partly depends upon when you do the assessment of whale status and it seems to be a bit of a moving target, even though there are ways to attempt to get some kinds of bearing upon making such "whale status" assessments.
Edit: By the way, I will admit that I was able to get quite a few cornz in 2015 during that flat period, even though I was quite broke from both 1) having had done most of my accumulation in 2014 and 2) having some business partner problems in early 2015 that pretty much sucked up quite a bit of my extra cashflows, and there was even one period on a dip that I was able to buy some cornz at around $180, but part of my problem was that I was feeling like a ran out of money whenever there were dips to the low $200s or the one time that it actually dipped below $200 in early 2015.. I think that the late 2015 dip did not quite go below $200.. but it was not like I was feeling rich enough to "back up the truck." and another problem was that I had some sim swap issues in early 2017, so it seems a lot of my efforts of accumulating extra cornz got neutralized out.. so it was quite crazy, but if you think about it, if someone lost 75% of his stash in, but the price goes up 78x, he still ends up making around 20x (based on the spot price) rather than 78x from his investment amount, even though his BTC stash would have had been reduced by 75%.. those kinds of things happen sometimes, and telling the actual numbers is likely not a good idea... but then if we start to look at the 200-week moving average, it still can take a whle for the value to go up as fast, and probably I have ONLY been looking at the 200-WMA to value my stash since about 2019 or 2020.. and admittedly being influenced by stock to flow and PlanB ideas.. that were kind of already in my head, but really drew attention to the 200-week moving average as an important bottom indicator.
Those who have bought Bitcoin at average price of 1000$ or 2 digit and still HODLing have patience in true sense.
You are really mixing groups here because there is still going to need to be an assessment regarding how many coins the person bought whether it is in the lower 2 digits, and then if he did not buy many at those prices, then maybe his average cost per BTC is much higher than 2 digits even though he bought some coins in that price range...and then other mistakes along the way could greatly reduce BTC stack size.
So there are several guys in this thread who claim to have gotten quite a few coins in the lower two digits, but then don't really go into detail in regards to the overall cost of their whole BTC stash, and there are quite a few ways of doing accounting, in which if you keep track coin by coin or if you go by your overall average cost per BTC, but then the facts of the matter whether we are going to assess as current whale or future potential whale or even some other present or future classification of sea animal, this will then likely come down to stack size.. maybe even more than average cost per BTC, and I have frequently said that it is better to be a more aggressive BTC buyer who has 100 or more BTC with an average cost of $1k per coin rather than someone who might have been more whimpy and "only" got 21 BTC for an average of $300 per coin, and the same is likely going to play into the future, but it still would not necessarily mean that someone necessarily needs to hang onto all of his coins, especially if he might have more than 100 BTC, but maybe if he wants to get to whale status in 10-15 years or so, then maybe it becomes more important.. but then maybe those kinds of status matters are not going to matter so much, so if the guy with more than 100 coins ends up going below 100 coins and even getting down to 80 BTC in 10-15 years, he might still not be at the status of whale, but maybe in another 5 years or so (15-20 years from now), then maybe at that point, 80 coins might be considered as whale status.. you can look at
my entry-level fuck you status chart for projected valuation metrics.
I even have a person in my circle who is HODLing and will sell only when Bitcoin touch 100k$.
When you say "sell" sell for what? Why would you want to sell your BTC, unless you are merely referring to maybe shaving some off here and there... no problem with that.
At some point in early 2019, maybe right around the time that the BTC price shot up from $4,200 to $13,880, I had authorized myself to make small sales of BTC, but I was trying to avoid ever having to sell any BTC below $5k, so I still kind of think of $5k as my don't sell below point, so I have to take measures that I am not going to feel any need to sell below $5k. but it seems much better to put yourself in a position of not selling buy either selling in advance or selling way in advance of the BTC spot price dipping to such levels, if it ever is going to get down to those levels again.
It is almost like I have to move up my never sell number, and it seems that
my sustainable withdrawal chart (and
the website powered by @bitserve) has kind of gotten to the sole of this issue with reduction of withdrawal authorizations that goes all the way to zero once the spot BTC price is more than 35% below the 200-week moving average, and if you look at the historical chart and you plug in November 22, 2022, that would have been the most that the BTC spot price had ever dropped in relation to the 200-week moving average, and the website shows $15,814 which is 34.18% below then 200-WMA of $24,027, but if you put in the actual lowest spot price for the day of $15,479 then you will get 35.5766% below the 200-WMA, which would discontinue the ability to withdraw rather than being able to withdraw 40% of your monthly withdrawal limit if you had been in the range of 30% and 35% below the 200-WMA.
The tool seems to kind of resolve my issue and creates a moving target of "never sell if the BTC spot price becomes more than 35% below the 200-week moving average." Maybe those are buying prices at near or below the 200-week moving average for those folks in their BTC accumulation years, but maybe can also be interpreted as "never sell below" for those who are either in maintenance or in liquidation.
Those who are new to the market like me should not lose heart. There are still ample opportunities when we can buy Bitcoin at lower prices.
Of course, folks who are newer to BTC and who are likely either in their accumulation stage or in their early accumulation stage, should be pleased to accumulate during dips, accumulate when the BTC price fails to go up or seems to be static, and it can take a long time to accumulate enough BTC, and maybe you have to spend 10 years or more accumulating before you really start to feel comfortable that you have enough.
I have already made the claim several times in recent times that anyone investing $100 per week for the next 10 years is likely not going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC and maybe not even half of a BTC, but at least there are greater chances of accumulating half of a BTC than a whole BTC, but if you had already gotten started, and maybe you are no spring chicken anymore WatChe. .and congratulations, you are coming up upon your having been registered on the forum for a whole bitcoin cycle.. and if you have been investing into bitcoin for that whole time, then that would have had been helpful too.
Just think about it,
a $100 per week invested into bitcoin over the last 4 years would have had resulted in more than 1 BTC (at 1.0505), but if you had been wanting to double the quantity of your BTC holdings in a similar amount of time, you may well need to increase your investment rate by 4x to 6x or maybe even more.
Sorry I didn’t post it, hopefully someone else did. Last week before the crash mtgox sent out another email confirming exchange information to prepare for the distribution of Bitcoin to creditors. This to me is the last step before BTC will be distributed. As such, I assume the selling we’re seeing is people getting in front of the gox distribution.
I haven't heard this news repeatedly
out of your pie hole for enough years, lets hear all about how it's going to tank us again but this time with some real feeling.
I especially enjoyed the truthfulness of this part, which OgNasty more than deserves.
Usually a dip before the halving.
History like always,repeating itself.
I don't really get very many pleasures from your chart (apart from its poor formatting that I had to completely reduce in order to lessen the suffering in this thread.
In any event, so far, as I type this post, we have a 21.5% correction from $49,048 to $38,505, and your chart is building-in a 42% correction for this (pre-halvening correction) - which would bring the BTC price down to right around $33k, and sure that could happen, but it is probably no greater than 50/50 that it could happen, and surely I would get woken up from such a correction, if it were to occur. .and yeah it would not even come close to breaking either the UPpity streak and it would still be something close to 10% above the 200-week moving average, so it would not be out of the question.. .. even though I don't really like too many preparations for down that might not happen, even though I surely have buy orders down to that level..
and by the way, yesterday, I spent a few hours getting some of the inconsistencies out of both my buy orders and my sell orders, and so they are pretty much resolved (again) which seems like something I do every few months or maybe a couple times a year if things are more solidly in-place, even though after I had pretty much finished reestablishing all my orders, I did notice something that causes me some concerns in regards to how I had set them that I might have to reconsider if I need to tweak them again at some point.. but I don't like to go into such overall tweakenings very often since it does tend to take several hours to both think through what I am going to do and then to cancel all the old orders and then to replace with new ones - well also depends on if I were to end up doing just a partial revision or if the revision were to involve most or all of my orders, and this one mostly was a total revision of both the UPpities and the DOWNities in all places that I have outstanding orders....
Edit: Part of the point I was trying to make in my last paragraph was that my buy order increments are about every $1,200 to $1,300 down until(if?) we get to into the $28ks , and then they are in increments of every $1k until (if?) we get to right around $20k, and then they are every $500 increments for a few more buy orders.. but I would be surprised to even get below mid-$30ks, even though a spike dip down to lower $30ks would not be out of the question..and I am not going to take too many chances either way.. trying to figure out ways to make the unpleasant dips a wee bit less unpleasant, if possible
(so picking up a few more cornz at lower prices is supposed to bring some pleasants to cancel out the unpleasants.. but it ONLY works so much. .especially if there are feelings of running out of money.. which is part of the reason to set the buy orders way lower than it is believed to be necessary in order to never run out of monies)..
Poll
