Great visualization of the rewards of hodling. Why would you ever trade this thing?
- Think of the x-axis as the date you purchased bitcoin.
- The y-axis is how long you held that bitcoin.
- Longer description in the
source.
That is a reasonable visual, yet it is presuming profitability based on lump sum investing on certain dates, and many folks will take several years in order to establish their BTC position, even if they might have goals of being aggressive in their BTC accumulation.
Another potential misleading angle is that it seems to be using spot prices, and we know how much spot prices tend to vary, so the level of profitability may well tend to vary too...
For example, if we use spot price as our measure of BTC value, a guy who might have an average BTC cost of around $1k would have gone from 1,000% (10x) profitability around the end of 2020, and then reached around 6,900 (69x) profitability in late 2021, and then by late 2022 would have been back down to 1,600% (16x) in late 2022, and then now back to around 6,900 (69x) profitability.
On the other hand if we use the 200-WMA to assess such profitability valuations of his portfolio would have ONLY gone up.. and they would have had been around 7.3x in late 2020, around 17.84x in late 2021, around 24.11x in late 2022 and around 35.3x currently. You can punch in your dates to obtain find out 200-WMA valuations here:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategyI understand folks like to use BTC spot price measurements, and it shows the similar things as the 200-WMA, in terms of the ongoing trend upward.. but just a lot more variation in where the BTC price might be located at any given specific time.
To make it clear -like some people wondering- i did not dismembered myself with a Mindrust move.
Everything is still according to plan.
It’s still is a bit weird
Mindrust being a Turk, Turkey where BTC being adopted and used more and more…He was an early Turk holding and able showing the way but instead he’s and early seller…
He had a descent amount of corn and if he would stick to the DCA/Hodl which he always said been doing… then he would be a perfect example by now.
But what a turn diende make …
Let's just say that mindrust had concluded that he had been overly accumulating BTC and sometime in early 2020 (such as March 1-ish), he decided that he would just buy $10 of bitcoin per week, while at the same time, just holding onto his then 10 BTC, then right now he would have
right around 10.09802 BTC....
Or suppose alternatively, on March 1, 2020, mindrust could have had concluded that he has too much BTC, and he could have started to sustainably sell BTC at around 6% per year, and even that gives around 0.05 BTC per month, but then brings down the balance to around 7.75 BTC with $72k worth of value having had been withdrawn over the past 4 - ish years. None of that sounds too bad, even if the goal ended up being to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal rather than ongoingly accumulating of BTC in the last 4-ish years.
You can put in the sustainable withdrawal (date, portfolio size and withdrawal rate) information at this site:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy70
Locked up
Again
Feels like LFC's $9000 Vegeta game, except we're 8x higher.
Strange how BTC price appreciation works.
Imagine.
8x higher than previously.
A vast majority of folks (who invest in traditional assets and even if they get lucky with some of their investments), they never reach 8x higher on any of their investment in their lifetime, in comparison towards their abilities to have had been able to reach such levels of BTC price appreciation in right around 4 years if we use the second or third time that that BTC was struggling to get through $9k, but yeah we could use 2018, or 2019 or 2020 as our guides to when BTC prices was struggling to get through $9k - even though it did not really struggle too much when it first passed through 49k in 2017... .. and now, $9k is quite likely something to never be seen again, and an overwhelming majority of the world do not have enough (or any) BTC to be able to have had enjoyed such a stupendous price appreciation of this particular asset... and yeah some of us longer term bitcoiners also seem to get frustrated that BTC is not moving up fast enough.. and jeez.. we might be sneezing at a kind of solidness in the 8x that we have achieved in the last 4-ish years.
70
Locked up
Again
It’s a chewy bone though
I think that it is is different than $9k though..
It is more like we were bouncing around $20k - a previous ATH... .so $70k is like 2x as good as $9k.. .. while at the same time we know that in 2021, we did not come even close to as high as our various earlier blow off tops of 2013 and 2017....
but at the same time, even though UPpity price move percentages might seem reasonably capable of being compared in terms of trying to figure out what it means to both do 8x,... but at the same time to be able to sustain BTC spot prices at those higher levels, and while at the same time a lot more capital has to be moving, even if we might be doing another 5x from here... but the capital is there. The new capital is coming in - perhaps even better than expected in terms of quantity, even while worse than considered in terms of the motivations of such new capital to hold their own coins.
$70,000 still a tough nut to crack by the looks of it. We’ll smash through it soon though, I really don’t know why people are selling or shorting in this range. It’s like picking up pennies in front of a steaming locomotive.
I think this time next year we will all be a hell of a lot richer than we are now. It’s the start of the business end of this four year cycle. Don’t drink too much, don’t take too many drugs, cut down on the hookers. We all need to be of sound mind for throughout the next 18 months now.
FTFYIt seems that those of us who have been in more than 1 cycle are going to need some kind of plan, and sure there are some guys who are bordering on a whole cycle, and don't get me wrong because there can be dilemmas at each level.
Even if some of us might not stick with the exactly plan that we end up making, it still seems better to have some kind of a rough outline of a plan, and surely there could be some guys on the border of wanting to make a plan, but then they end up regretting not doing anything because their plan was not solid enough to show them how to act.. and alternatively there will be some guys who end up selling too much too soon. Either way could contribute towards unnecessary regrets.
It seems in the two years or so I have been posting back and forth with several forum members in regards to the idea that those members with less than a whole cycle in bitcoin, and especially those who just got into bitcoin in the last year or two, they may well not be in a position to be figuring out how to sell any of their bitcoin, and they are likely going to be better off to just keep buying bitcoin through the whole cycle, rather than figuring out some other strategy that may or may not end up with being able to accumulate more BTC (such as trading).. yet many of us likely realize, especially if we had made it through more than a whole cycle, that the first cycle seems to have higher levels of pressures - especially if we do not create, maintain and carry out some kind of a plan.. even if we might end up tweaking the plan a bit from time to time and even making mistakes in regards to our plan, we are likely better off to put some kind of a ballpark plan in place.
Poll
