Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

Breakout...for real this time?

Straight back down.

Bears fighting for their lives to keep us under $70,000 for some unknown reason.

May I suggest appropriate reading material.

[Lucius]

- Thailand approves first spot Bitcoin ETF.

Great news - first they banned Bitcoin as a means of payment, but they don't mind trading through ETFs - is that called adaptation or?

Hypocrisy?

And what else could it be - countries like Turkey and Vietnam have the same laws - I wonder if some other countries will follow their example in the future?

When supply shock? Bears are about to get fucked, hard.

When I last looked at the liquidity data on CEXs, it said that they had about 1.8 million BTC - and regardless of the accuracy of the data, I think that the supply shock that has been talked about for years is not yet in sight.

According to Coinglass it's ~2.5m currently.
But IMHO only a small percentage of that balance is actually in the orderbooks and their owners willing to let these coins change hands. Also the amount decreases quickly and seems to be at an all time low right now:



To demonstrate to a coiner friend where we currently are in Bitcoin supply/inflation life, I created a tiny script to output supply, supply % and halving year:

Halving 1 in 2012 (at block # 210000) supply: 10500000.0000 (50.000%)
Halving 2 in 2016 (at block # 420000) supply: 15750000.0000 (75.000%)
Halving 3 in 2020 (at block # 630000) supply: 18375000.0000 (87.500%)
Halving 4 in 2024 (at block # 840000) supply: 19687500.0000 (93.750%)
Halving 5 in 2028 (at block # 1050000) supply: 20343750.0000 (96.875%)
Halving 6 in 2032 (at block # 1260000) supply: 20671875.0000 (98.438%)
Halving 7 in 2036 (at block # 1470000) supply: 20835937.5000 (99.219%)
Halving 8 in 2040 (at block # 1680000) supply: 20917968.7500 (99.609%)
Halving 9 in 2044 (at block # 1890000) supply: 20958984.3750 (99.805%)
Halving 10 in 2048 (at block # 2100000) supply: 20979492.1875 (99.902%)
Halving 11 in 2052 (at block # 2310000) supply: 20989746.0927 (99.951%)
Halving 12 in 2056 (at block # 2520000) supply: 20994873.0453 (99.976%)
Halving 13 in 2060 (at block # 2730000) supply: 20997436.5216 (99.988%)
Halving 14 in 2064 (at block # 2940000) supply: 20998718.2587 (99.994%)
Halving 15 in 2068 (at block # 3150000) supply: 20999359.1262 (99.997%)
Halving 16 in 2072 (at block # 3360000) supply: 20999679.5589 (99.998%)
Halving 17 in 2076 (at block # 3570000) supply: 20999839.7742 (99.999%)
Halving 18 in 2080 (at block # 3780000) supply: 20999919.8808 (100.000%)
Halving 19 in 2084 (at block # 3990000) supply: 20999959.9341 (100.000%)
Halving 20 in 2088 (at block # 4200000) supply: 20999979.9597 (100.000%)

Right now we're at 93.84% of supply mined and the demand from institutional money is at record heights, I am none the wiser than you but I have a feeling the much bespoken supply shock is very close (rather weeks or months but not years I'd say).

So even more than I thought - but still it is a large amount, and people who keep their coins on CEX obviously have a good reason for it - let's assume that they want to sell them at a certain moment, maybe when the price reaches $100k? I have nothing against you being right - I would like to experience someone wanting to buy a large amount of BTC, but not being able to do so because there are no coins on the market.

[Ricardo11]

Bitcoin will be rich, definitely rich..
we all will get rich with this, keep calm..
Keep your heart and mind calm.
And accept the reward of peace..

[Phil_S]

Over 66000 for 15 days straight...

[Zeunerts]

70K @ stamp

[GIF-JOBS]

70K Done again....

[El duderino_]

Moon have been broken.
The old days have been brutal.
Keep printing red dots.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

Promise me you will stay above $70k for than 5 minutes this time?

[Phil_S]

Promise me you will stay above $70k for than 5 minutes this time?

As soon as we'll get to $80k, yeah... we might stay above $70k for a while then...

[bitcoinPsycho]

 

[Gachapin]

Breakout...for real this time?

Straight back down.

Bears fighting for their lives to keep us under $70,000 for some unknown reason.

quite some shorts to protect that get liquidated at 71-72k...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

70.7k again. hey buddy how bout 77k?

[Greyhats]

Its nice to see us over 70, the last few weeks its been hard to stay bullish when we have been stuck in this range. Some days I'm hesitant to even bother checking the prices because i know it will be in the range and then other days I am super bullish and and start digging into the data, and dreaming of next run. Ahhhh the trials and tribulations, #1stworldproblems

A new thought popped into my head this morning though, and this is pure speculation(since speculating on a range bound asset price at the moment is boring AF). Could the accumulation thats going on over the last 3months be tied into when the next ATH will hit. For example, if we look at the current date range of this sideways action its Mar - Jun, for a short-term investor of 1yr timeframe in the US at least they have to hold the asset for 12months to get the long term capital gains rate. Could we be in store for fun in Mar - Jun in 2025, is this where some of the short termer's planning to sell into to.

I would like to definitely say I'm not a short term investor, but just some speculating on whats going on in the market now and how this might effect the markets next year.

Keep calm, keeping stacking :-)

[promise444c5]

We broke the trend yet approach the major supply zone
let's see how it fights this time  

[philipma1957]

We broke the trend yet approach the major supply zone
let's see how it fights this time  

time and time again eventually we  "will break on through to the other side" Doors Morrison

[criptoevangelista]

Anytime  




ATH

[STINKYBEE]

Stack more and run those bitcoin nodes

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@jvs_bitcoin
This is now BTC best ever start to a halving cycle, up 11%.

Epoch 2 was up 10% at this point.

https://x.com/jvs_btc/status/1798044575044616279