Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Roggeredek]

https://x.com/btc_archive/status/1801186384297766929?s=46

Great for us, One day worldwide 700 Billion customers in 2030!

[fillippone]

Today Microstrategy announced the early call of a Convertible bond for 650 millions, and the issue of a new one up to 575 millions.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Today Microstrategy announced the early call of a Convertible bond for 650 millions, and the issue of a new one up to 575 millions.

Can you translate the financial institutional fuckery language here for those of us that opt out.

[dragonvslinux]

70's now gone?  

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

That did not age well.

70's now gone?  

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

are you doing reverse proudhon here ?  ... unfortunately it doesn't seem to work, just like proudhons predictions

I think it did, given I posted it after price had already dropped below $70K... sometimes I forget sarcasm is lost on the internet  

By the way, I saw where you later said that it was a joke, and recall that even though we went down to around $56,500 around April 30, we are still having trouble getting down to some of the lower levels that you had been considering to be so probable.. yet sure, at the same time, we have not yet gotten to $80k or supra $80k numbers either.. so surely interesting times to have had been consolidating mostly between $60k and $70k for around 3.5 months-ish.

Yes, it looks a lot more interesting now after all this consolidation, and increasingly likely the break-out will be definitive once it occurs - ie continue in that direction for months to come once it happens. Price looks pretty indecisive still, given higher bullish and bearish volume candles cancelling themselves out in recent days. Given the low volume, it could certainly go either way from here. I'm still anticipating a continued correction since we've been failing to maintain the previous cycle ATH for so long now, which has never been a problem before in previous cycles, as well as other factors such as failing to continue to the upside from $68-70K levels back in March, which was the mid-cycle top potential, similar to summer 2019, and completely the opposite to December 2020 when price pierced through it with ease at $21K. Now ironically it's around $89K which would be the next target for a mid-cycle correction, but I'd happily concede that at that level a mid-cycle correction is unlikely to play out, so would probably be somewhat irrelevant it seems.

Additionally the miner capitulation hash ribbons post-havling signal last month (like clockwork) suggesting further consolidation/correction rather than immediate upside, which has generally been pretty reliable over the cycles, and so far is playing out even though it's only been a few weeks. So while at present price still looks/structured bullish, above longer-term MAs etc, there are bearish macro factors in play which wasn't the case a few months ago when I was speculating about a correction or consolidation as opposed to immediate further upside. This is nearly always the case with a few months of consolidation within a range at the highs, similar to early 2021 between $50K and $60K, where there were warning signs prior to a 50% correction. Of course we could look back and blame the China ban that was the catalyst, but this is generally irrelevant; the market was fragile enough for a state actor to take advantage, whereas if the market was full-blown bullish it would have barely had any effect on bullish momentum. Naturally a buy signal could otherwise turn this around to parabolic-bullish pretty swiftly like in July 2020, so as I said initially, it could quite easily go either way even if there are bearish warning signs that lack follow through.

Price strength is otherwise flirting with getting rejected from overbought levels, similar to November 2021, which while I don't believe will lead to a "major" correction (ie -75%), it could still lead to a significant correction before a 2025 bull market takes off, as there is a still most of two quarters left in the year, so plenty of time. At least historically, this type of a rejection often leads to a around a 25-35% correction, or alternatively a few months of consolidation (ie on top of the few months we've already had), which doesn't seem like a crazy idea anymore (ie 6 months consolidation). But again this is a case of if price is able to comfortably return to and maintain overbought levels, then there is a lot of room to the upside between an RSI of 70 and one of 90, similar to $35K to $45K move, or $42K to $69K. So generally, there's a lot more reason to be cautious at current prices compared to 3 months ago, even if not quite bearish if price can hold $60K support level. I just personally think price will struggle to do that, as was the case last month, whereas this time around returning to these support levels will be a lot worse, for example breaking the 20 Week MA around $63K has been a reliable signal for a deeper correction to come, and hasn't happened since last year.

It otherwise generally seems likes longer-term OTC sellers are distributing to ETFs, hence the range-bound price right now, given the relatively low spot volume in recent weeks/months, the continued accumulation (overall) from ETFs, and otherwise HODL waves showing longer-term holders taking profits. This seems also pretty clear from number of Bitcoins produced per day vs accumulation from ETFs. It's been said for months that this imbalance would lead to much higher prices (such as yourself), but so far this hasn't happened, and based on the low spot volume, the selling must be coming from elsewhere like OTC. This seems to be the current battle in play, and whether the current price range will be confirmed as an accumulation zone by ETF buyers, or a distribution zone for OTC sellers, isn't possible to assess until it happens.

Aside from how much bitcoin ETFs have aggressively been accumulating (around ~5% of total supply last I checked), I don't doubt that OTC sellers have a lot more than that on offer to sell at current prices if they continue as they have been. So this range could last another few months at this rate, until sellers run out of coins to sell, or otherwise ETFs slow down or stop accumulating. Generally I think it's best to let these whales play games between themselves, and let it play out, as there could be a bear whale / bull whale type of event that happens behind closed doors that would catch a lot of people off guard. So anyone longing or shorting on leverage within this range need to be extremely carefully, already the recent chop is a major warning sign that there is a determined battle between different entities or groups of bulls and bears at present. That might sound like a dramatic or exaggerated analysis of current price movement/range, but bear in mind the bulls are acting transparently via ETF accumulation that's well documented, while OTC bears are far from transparent with their dealings, so in this case I'd say have the slight upper hand, because no-one is really able to track how much they are selling or how much they have to sell.

Obviously this is just my opinion, generally just weighing the odds of the bullish market structure with my interpretation of the bearish warning signs, as well as some analysis of why I think price has been ranging for so long, and why the consolidation could also now continue. Ideally someone would provide another argument for this beyond "price suppression" which is generally a meaningless phrase unless backed up by facts or legitimate theories. Admittedly my scepticism about immediate continued upside has grown over the past few months, because I doubted that price would go much higher, and that a new ATH would be sustainable, based on hypotheticals and speculation, which so far has been the case. The fact price hasn't considerably correction yet is somewhat irrelevant, as I accepted that it would likely take months to play out if it were to occur.

[BitcoinBunny]

Today Microstrategy announced the early call of a Convertible bond for 650 millions, and the issue of a new one up to 575 millions.

Will be heading out to the supermarket later and therefore...

I hereby announce the private offering of around £100 of convertible senior notes. #BitcoinBunny

Any takers? Tesco? Waitrose? Asda? Bueller?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Today Microstrategy announced the early call of a Convertible bond for 650 millions, and the issue of a new one up to 575 millions.

Can you translate the financial institutional fuckery language here for those of us that opt out.

From Google

A security is a fungible, negotiable financial instrument that represents some type of financial value, usually in the form of a stock, bond, or option. A senior convertible note is a debt security that contains an option making the note convertible into a predefined amount of the issuer's shares

Google Gemini.
I asked: Explain to a 3 year old what a convertible senior note exactly is:

A convertible senior note is a bit grown-up stuff, even for grown-ups to understand sometimes! But here's a fun way to think about it:

Imagine you're giving someone a special kind of IOU. It's like saying, "I owe you some money, but you can also choose to get a special toy instead!"

The money is like the loan the company gets.
The person you give the IOU to is like the person who lends the company money.
The special toy is like the company's stock (which you might know as those little pieces of paper that show ownership of a company).
So, the lender can either get their money back after a certain time (like 3 years you mentioned!), or they can choose to swap their IOU for a piece of the company, kind of like owning a part of the company's toy box!

This is a very simplified explanation, but hopefully, it gives you a basic idea of what a convertible senior note is like.

How shit is that "AI", btw? "like 3 years you mentioned!".

Utter claptrap.

$2 trillion.  

[sirazimuth]

OT: The clearest sign that humanity is doomed?

That every high profile tech company (except for Bitcoin), with stocks that keep rising, has a narrative that is a long term bet against humanity.

That's why the Average Joe investors with a conscious don't understand modern day investing: that in order to make money, you have to bet against humanity's future.

Powell: now only one rate cut, jobs data was a "bit" overstated.
Only AI related companies "doing well".

US economy sounds like trash. $1 trillion per year on debt interest. Madness.

UK even worse. No ideas for growth during election cycle. "Green economy" "Wealth tax".
Good luck. GDP Per Capita stagnating and even going down.

Still inflation...

We are all doomed. The end is near....


...and now I have to go empty the dishwasher and feed the cats...

[BitcoinBunny]

OT: The clearest sign that humanity is doomed?

That every high profile tech company (except for Bitcoin), with stocks that keep rising, has a narrative that is a long term bet against humanity.

That's why the Average Joe investors with a conscious don't understand modern day investing: that in order to make money, you have to bet against humanity's future.

Powell: now only one rate cut, jobs data was a "bit" overstated.
Only AI related companies "doing well".

US economy sounds like trash. $1 trillion per year on debt interest. Madness.

UK even worse. No ideas for growth during election cycle. "Green economy" "Wealth tax".
Good luck. GDP Per Capita stagnating and even going down.

Still inflation...

We are all doomed. The end is near....


...and now I have to go empty the dishwasher and feed the cats...

Exactly!

Why should any American, or any immigrant who lives in the one country which holds the world's reserve currency and can just print more,
ever be worried about stagnating growth elsewhere?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Today Microstrategy announced the early call of a Convertible bond for 650 millions, and the issue of a new one up to 575 millions.

Can you translate the financial institutional fuckery language here for those of us that opt out.

Translation: MSTR converts debt into company stock, thereby extinguishing that debt WITHOUT needing to raise cash to repay (by selling bitcoin, for example).
The end result: MSTR shares are being diluted... and as expected, MSTR moves lower today. All logical. From a note holders point of view, they get 1531-397=3.86X (286%) their money and would have cash to invest in the next tranche that MSTR is proposing. Both sides "win".

[vapourminer]

Also, liquid cooling is very efficient, but I don't like the feeling of having liquid flowing inside the PC case. I prefer good air cooling.

well be aware AMD recommended a  240 or 360 mm rad with water cooling for their 5900/5950 parts with are 12/24 and 16/32 treads . all big cores.

of course big honking air coolers can put up some serious cooling if done right.
ive run several AIO water setups over many years for the cpu with no problems.. and i run then pumps 24/7 with the fans occasionally turning off .  both radiators and pumps are corsair.. a Corsair iCUE H150i Elite Capellix Liquid CPU Cooler for an amd 5900X thats run constant for about a year (i never turn the main computers off) . the corsair H80 (i think) and thats was built like 7 years ago? it runs 24/7 also and is still running im my home lab.

so a name brand aio is is likely to last, its the custom loops that could be issues - mainly due to operator error issues.

remember HEAT DEGRADES (well slowly) electronics, so good cooling on the NVMEs drives, chipset, and cpu gpu(s) plus serious case airflow

i have a lianli O11 dynamic. 360 rad on the side, then on the ceiling and floor each has 2 140s and a 120

[AlcoHoDL]

Also, liquid cooling is very efficient, but I don't like the feeling of having liquid flowing inside the PC case. I prefer good air cooling.

well be aware AMD recommended a  240 or 360 mm rad with water cooling for their 5900/5950 parts with are 12/24 and 16/32 treads . all big cores.

of course big honking air coolers can put up some serious cooling if done right.
ive run several AIO water setups over many years for the cpu with no problems.. and i run then pumps 24/7 with the fans occasionally turning off .  both radiators and pumps are corsair.. a Corsair iCUE H150i Elite Capellix Liquid CPU Cooler for an amd 5900X thats run constant for about a year (i never turn the main computers off) . the corsair H80 (i think) and thats was built like 7 years ago? it runs 24/7 also and is still running im my home lab.

so a name brand aio is is likely to last, its the custom loops that could be issues - mainly due to operator error issues.

remember HEAT DEGRADES (well slowly) electronics, so good cooling on the NVMEs drives, chipset, and cpu gpu(s) plus serious case airflow

i have a lianli O11 dynamic. 360 rad on the side, then on the ceiling and floor each has 2 140s and a 120

Good recommendations, thanks. I know liquid cooling is safe nowadays, with good brand AIO setups. My current build (late-2022) uses a chunky be quiet! air cooler, which looks...cool, but is barely enough for my i9-13900K at stock speed.

I will likely be using an AIO in my next build, unless some major tech change happens in CPU design and efficiency improves. I tend to keep my PCs for many years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Also, liquid cooling is very efficient, but I don't like the feeling of having liquid flowing inside the PC case. I prefer good air cooling.

well be aware AMD recommended a  240 or 360 mm rad with water cooling for their 5900/5950 parts with are 12/24 and 16/32 treads . all big cores.

of course big honking air coolers can put up some serious cooling if done right.
ive run several AIO water setups over many years for the cpu with no problems.. and i run then pumps 24/7 with the fans occasionally turning off .  both radiators and pumps are corsair.. a Corsair iCUE H150i Elite Capellix Liquid CPU Cooler for an amd 5900X thats run constant for about a year (i never turn the main computers off) . the corsair H80 (i think) and thats was built like 7 years ago? it runs 24/7 also and is still running im my home lab.

so a name brand aio is is likely to last, its the custom loops that could be issues - mainly due to operator error issues.

remember HEAT DEGRADES (well slowly) electronics, so good cooling on the NVMEs drives, chipset, and cpu gpu(s) plus serious case airflow

i have a lianli O11 dynamic. 360 rad on the side, then on the ceiling and floor each has 2 140s and a 120

I was building custom watercooled systems for overclocking after the millenium with a former collegue, for our gaming systems, with coolers outside the actual case (these things were BIG in size, with the aquarium pump and water tank. The most sick thing i have seen in that time while browsing the internet for ideas was a dude that had a water cooler outside the house, with water hoses buried in his garden, connectors on his PCs, pipes going through the building's outer wall in several rooms, also with connectors and just connected his PCs with tubes, fitted with connectors to the "inhouse cooling circuit", just like with those vacuum cleaner systems built into homes.  

Today, i have a corsair watercooling system in my gaming PC. It's reliably built and even if it would leak, thermal throttling would save the cpu, the chipset/bridge could take higher temperatures for a while, and the non-conductive fluid wouldn't do much harm to the 12V electronics inside, too. The GPU cooler is way noisier than the watercooling-fans under full load and the temps are also ramping up on the GPU, while the CPU stays in a convenient range. I have to check the specs of the system, but it looks way oversized, compared to what i already knew, so i might have a good chance to include the GPU into the watercooling circuit. I don't feel very comfortable when the Nvidia chip is reaching +85°C Temperatures while the cooler (actually two fans) spins at top speed.
I consider commercial watercooling as safe, never heard of any related accidents.

Good recommendations, thanks. I know liquid cooling is safe nowadays, with good brand AIO setups. My current build (late-2022) uses a chunky be quiet! air cooler, which looks...cool, but is barely enough for my i9-13900K at stock speed.

I will likely be using an AIO in my next build, unless some major tech change happens in CPU design and efficiency improves. I tend to keep my PCs for many years.

Regarding Aircooling, i had the best experiences with Noctua coolers (and fans) in my newer systems (last 10 years or so).
You need a good board that can take the weight and a case with good airflow and enough room, in summer i used to take off the side panel of the tower case, sometimes.
Before the Noctua era, i used to use Zalman (Pentium times) fanless coolers which were cooled with fans, which i mounted on custom holders over the fins without touching them (decoupled), which was much more silent.

EDIT: In retrospect, i can't imagine living the boring life of a non-geek 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

A possibility: OTC whales are people like C. Palihapitiya, who promoted SPACs before (yikes!) and now profess suspiciously bullish targets for bitcoin.
On WS, if you are very bullish, it means that you want to sell and vice versa.
People like Chamath (but not necessarily himself) are selling into ETF accumulation, perhaps (this was also proposed by @dragonvslinux).
If so, this may continue for a while (maybe even for the rest of the year or at least until September).

Another, worse possibility, is that in the eyes of Silicon Valley "elite", at some point bitcoin will compete for electricity resources with AI data centers.
Who do you think they would preferentially back?

Considering everything, I still think that bitcoin should attain approximately gold value (15-16 tril as of now) in due course.
That would be 750-800K/btc. The question is-would it happen in this cycle (hopefully) or the next one (more likely lately).