Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[promise444c5]

Too early to tell, but it would be if we pierce ~70K..cheers to that!

It will be a relief to get through

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

The price is ripping! Good times for Bitcoiners. I think we all know what to expect over the next year, but getting to experience how it all happens is exciting. People would be wise to cling to the coins they can because we’re nearing the explosive part of the cycle. I feel more and more like we could end the year above $100K.

[aesma]

My two weeks summer vacations are ending, preceded by two weeks where I didn't work much as I went to see Olympic events.

As usual I'm not too happy about going back to work, but with $100K BTC on the horizon, then $150K BTC, then $200K BTC, I'm more and more wondering why work ?

I still haven't been able to buy a house for various reasons so I have a big stash of cash, enough to live off a few years renting a villa in Bali or something, waiting for my BTC stash to become fuck you money...

[Richy_T]

Red or Blue?

After this there is no turning back..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Glen Hoddle]

My two weeks summer vacations are ending, preceded by two weeks where I didn't work much as I went to see Olympic events.

As usual I'm not too happy about going back to work, but with $100K BTC on the horizon, then $150K BTC, then $200K BTC, I'm more and more wondering why work ?

I still haven't been able to buy a house for various reasons so I have a big stash of cash, enough to live off a few years renting a villa in Bali or something, waiting for my BTC stash to become fuck you money...

Friend, since you waited and couldn't buy a house, you should be patient for a while longer. Of course the bull run will pump the price of Bitcoin to the maximum, so patience is needed here. 
You wait calmly of course you can buy double house in future your bitcoins will multiply.  Bitcoin may touch 100k and 150k dollar soon after its bull run.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

My two weeks summer vacations are ending, preceded by two weeks where I didn't work much as I went to see Olympic events.

As usual I'm not too happy about going back to work, but with $100K BTC on the horizon, then $150K BTC, then $200K BTC, I'm more and more wondering why work ?

I still haven't been able to buy a house for various reasons so I have a big stash of cash, enough to live off a few years renting a villa in Bali or something, waiting for my BTC stash to become fuck you money...

Friend, since you waited and couldn't buy a house, you should be patient for a while longer. Of course the bull run will pump the price of Bitcoin to the maximum, so patience is needed here. 
You wait calmly of course you can buy double house in future your bitcoins will multiply.  Bitcoin may touch 100k and 150k dollar soon after its bull run.

aesma has been mentioning the house-buying topic for quite a while, maybe even a whole bitcoin cycle, so he seems to be pretty patient, when it comes to the housing matter.

On the other hand, I do appreciate the point that with the passage of time it has been taking way and way fewer bitcoin to buy the same house, even if the house might have had gone up 50% or more in the past several years..

I was attempting to have a similar conversation with a renter who is in the process of becoming a first-time home buyer, and my suggestion was  to NOT get so anxious in regards to getting a house and perhaps investing in bitcoin for a whole cycle or more and then revisiting the housing matter a wee bit down the road.. .. but yeah, people can sometimes get anxious to stretch their budgets in order to get into a house of their own, even if they are going to end up considerably debt-laden and with quite a few burdens and costs (my friend's chosen housing situation was within a home owners association kind of a set-up so the association fees did not even seem to be that attractive from my perspective, either).

[Richy_T]

Housing is crazy. I thought it was overpriced in the early 2000s and, despite a couple of corrections, it's even moreso now.

[Biodom]

Housing is crazy. I thought it was overpriced in the early 2000s and, despite a couple of corrections, it's even moreso now.

It is, but if bitcoin would grow faster than housing, soon enough you would pay fractions of bitcoin to buy a house.
Maybe as soon as 5 years, 9 at the most, hopefully.

[d_eddie]

I think I see an inverse H&S on the daily. Are we in for a pump? I think we might be. What do you guys think?

Too early to tell, but it would be if we pierce ~70K..cheers to that!

No bull stampede yet
Holding their breath, listening out
For alpaca song




#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

Housing is crazy. I thought it was overpriced in the early 2000s and, despite a couple of corrections, it's even moreso now.

It is, but if bitcoin would grow faster than housing, soon enough you would pay fractions of bitcoin to buy a house.
Maybe as soon as 5 years, 9 at the most, hopefully.

Where have you been Biodom?

You refer to the housing versus bitcoin valuation situation as if it might be questionable whether bitcoin might gain value faster than housing, or if there were some kind of a question about whether bitcoin might gain value faster than housing, yet Bitcoin has already been appreciating way more than housing whether we look at the appreciation of BTC's spot price compared with housing or perhaps we could look at an appreciation of bitcoin's value through some more gradual indicator, like the 200-WMA.

There should be no need for me to have to provide you with examples, but maybe I should consider laying it out?

Sure, housing has gone up too, but bitcoin has gone up more.  To me it seems that it would be rare to locate some kind of a housing situation in which the house would not have required way fewer bitcoin to purchase now as compared to various dates in the past...

Let's take August 24 of each of the following years (over the last 10-ish years) and maybe presume starting with a $1 million house, and let's be generous and presume that the house goes up in price/value around 30% every two years.   How does that 30% every two year house appreciation compare with bitcoin's spot price ot to bitcoin's 200-WMA valuation?  

August 24, 2014    House = $1 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 2,000 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 7,000 BTC    

August 24, 2016     House =   $1.3 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 2,250 BTC     =      BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 3,800 BTC    

August 24, 2018   House =  $1.7 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 255 BTC      =     BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 630 BTC    

August 24, 2020    House =  $2.2 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 188 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 340 BTC    

August 24, 2022    House = $2.9 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 135 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 126 BTC    

August 24, 2024    House = $3.7 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 58 BTC      =     BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 97 BTC    

You can see the data for each of the dates, here:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

We can see that even if the house had gone up 3x or 4x in the past 10 years, it still would cost way fewer bitcoin to buy such house now as compared with various points in previous years, and we should be able to see a trend in which fewer and fewer bitcoin have been required to buy similarly valued houses.  

Even if we might not have the same magnitude of BTC value appreciation in the future, I see no reason to conclude that bitcoin is not going to continue to appreciate better than houses especially if we are looking at such comparisons over 4-year cycles or more.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Biodom]

Housing is crazy. I thought it was overpriced in the early 2000s and, despite a couple of corrections, it's even moreso now.

It is, but if bitcoin would grow faster than housing, soon enough you would pay fractions of bitcoin to buy a house.
Maybe as soon as 5 years, 9 at the most, hopefully.

Where have you been Biodom?

You refer to the housing versus bitcoin valuation situation as if it might be questionable whether bitcoin might gain value faster than housing, or if there were some kind of a question about whether bitcoin might gain value faster than housing, yet Bitcoin has already been appreciating way more than housing whether we look at the appreciation of BTC's spot price compared with housing or perhaps we could look at an appreciation of bitcoin's value through some more gradual indicator, like the 200-WMA.

There should be no need for me to have to provide you with examples, but maybe I should consider laying it out?

Sure, housing has gone up too, but bitcoin has gone up more.  To me it seems that it would be rare to locate some kind of a housing situation in which the house would not have required way fewer bitcoin to purchase now as compared to various dates in the past...

Let's take August 24 of each of the following years (over the last 10-ish years) and maybe presume starting with a $1 million house, and let's be generous and presume that the house goes up in price/value around 30% every two years.   How does that 30% every two year house appreciation compare with bitcoin's spot price ot to bitcoin's 200-WMA valuation?  

August 24, 2014    House = $1 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 2,000 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 7,000 BTC    

August 24, 2016     House =   $1.3 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 2,250 BTC     =      BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 3,800 BTC    

August 24, 2018   House =  $1.7 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 255 BTC      =     BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 630 BTC    

August 24, 2020    House =  $2.2 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 188 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 340 BTC    

August 24, 2022    House = $2.9 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 135 BTC       =    BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 126 BTC    

August 24, 2024    House = $3.7 million  = BTC spot price quantity = 58 BTC      =     BTC 200-WMA    quantity = 97 BTC    

You can see the data for each of the dates, here:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

We can see that even if the house had gone up 3x or 4x in the past 10 years, it still would cost way fewer bitcoin to buy such house now as compared with various points in previous years, and we should be able to see a trend in which fewer and fewer bitcoin have been required to buy similarly valued houses.  

Even if we might not have the same magnitude of BTC value appreciation in the future, I see no reason to conclude that bitcoin is not going to continue to appreciate better than houses especially if we are looking at such comparisons over 4-year cycles or more.

It's funny that you present my opinion as if I thought that housing would appreciate faster than bitcoin going forward when i actually suggested EXACTLY the opposite (re-emphasized the quote with a bold font)..but i understand that you just needed an supposedly opposite opinion to build your case...no biggie, but i simply replied to Richy_T's comment that housing went bonkers lately.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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