If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.
It's not a loss (assuming you're accounting in filthy fiat) until you cash in.
Even if we go with Philips's scenario of a guy who has an average cost of around $100k, since he bought for around $1k per coin or less, and so if we assume that he never has cashed out any BTC, if he is worried about getting back his principle, then he could have had sold 1.37 BTC when the BTC price was $73k or now, he could sell 1.887 BTC when the BTC price is $53k. What is the big deal?
Presumably if the guy bought below $1k or for an average of $1k-ish, then he got most of his coins prior to 2017, so if he has largely already been holding since before 2017, more than 7.5 years, then he has already been through a lot of ups and downs, and yeah, sure it could be the case that something about his life and/or his perceptions of his coins changed since our March high prices, yet Phil still seems to be assuming the guy to be whimpy and scared like him rather than someone who already has gotten used to accepting bitcoin's volatility...
Sure, I don't have any problem trying to stick with Phil's presumption that the guy was on the cusp of wanting to sell some BTC at $73k, but he wrongly presumed that the BTC prices were going higher, and so now the guy is getting concerned about his 100 BTC stash continuing to sufficiently hold its value. So now for some reason that Phil does not exactly explain (but we can go along with such presumption) the guy has converted into being worried about his BTC potentially losing more value and that $73k is not going to come again or not come again anytime soon, and the path for bitcoin from here on out is potentially down rather than up.. so yeah, we could go along with that... and consider that the guy is going to have to reassess his plan..and whether he is going to want to cash out some BTC now rather than potentially suffering from further losses.. or what does he do, since on paper he had already lost $2 million.
Even when I try to give Phil the benefit of the doubt, it just sounds goofy to be describing such a person who is scared as hell like he happens to be, yet the guy had managed to hold onto his bitcoin in the past 7.5+ years through those various difficult times and he still has 100 BTC...
The truth is, if you could perfectly trade all the moves in BTC, you'd be a billionaire in *minutes*. But to think you can is to fall for a gambler's mentality and that's a path to poverty except for a few who will experience survivor bias (until they don't).
That is exactly what Phil seems to be caught up in.. He cannot get out of his gambler mentality. He's been totally brainwashed into such a thing, and he thinks that it is normal.
But yes, hodling has its pains, especially as Bitcoin is down more often than it is up (but those ups...)
Another truth. The ups tend to make up for the downs, and that is why BTC's historical chart looks the way that it does. It actually looks easy to go through bitcoin by looking at the charts, since they are UP and to the right, but the fact of the matter, while we are going through bitcoin, there is a tendency to seem that we are going down way more than we are going up.. which is actually the truth in the way the BTC price tends to play out, even though the more we zoom out, we are ultimately going up more on fewer days, so in the longer run, it pays to be either a holder and/or an accumulator rather than someone who trades and/or scalps off dollar profits, so Phil seems to be the kind of guy who has always been scalping off dollar profits, and so he never ends up getting ahead in meaningful ways, even though he is ahead, he is way less ahead than he could have had been if he had allowed his profits to compound rather than prematurely scalping them off and enjoying (consuming) the fiat value from such ongong scalped profits.
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or btc is tamed and you do not moonshot . It simply stay slotted at 49k to 80k for the next 10 years.
Do not think it is possible.
Check how gold stayed in a slot for 11 years before it broke out.
Realize btc could be pushed down for next ten years.
Realize why do we have 670 eh of gear protecting it. Or is it helping to force a slot on btc.
Sure flat for 11 years could happen, but you have to also prepare yourself that such flat for 11 years might not happen...
Hopefully you have some BTC in case such a flat for 11 years scenario does not end up playing out as you are speculating.
By the way, you should realize that if you are describing a minority scenario that may well have less than 5% odds of happening (am I being too generous to allow 5% odds?) then you should not be putting more than 5% preparations into such a scenario. We surely cannot count on you, Philip, to have realistic propositions in regards to where we might be going.
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quote it wrong and fuck around.
learn to understand what you read.
my thread has the coins at 1k and 100 of them.
cashing 10 means 990k cash profit. in the form of 1 million minus 10 basis.
and 90 coins still in your wallet.
i would be having 1000k cash and 90 coins now at 53k
this would mean after cap gains I am at
800k and 90 coins.
I could buy 11 back at 583k
giving me 101 coins worth 53k
plus 217k cash.
so do you want 101 coins worth 53k and 217 cash or
100 coins at 53k
So I can tell you some people are stressed that they choose to hodl at 73k and not sell some.
of course the argument is I am after calling.
Much like ognasty did.
one reason i choose to mine and not worry about large profits that hodl casuesYour further explanation just shows the level of your fantasy in terms of your wanting to have your cake and eat it to.
You even admit that you are looking at the numbers after they played out and saying: "I should have had done it like this, and then I would have these gains".. which is nearly pure fantasy, yet you are posting it here as if any of us should be seriously contemplating your "after-the-fact" renditions of what a guy with 100 BTC "should have had done."
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that still looks like shit and means you don't understand after calling at all.
What I said is after calling what happened and is completely correct. What you are talking about did not happen and may never happen.
Each of us still hast to make decisions based on what we are going through, and not fantasize what happened after the fact... You need to take your meds, so you can stop (or at least slow down) with the fantasizing and try to deal with the reality of what people really do rather than looking at "after-the-fact" scenarios. There is no way that we can know "after-the-fact" scenarios until after they already happened.
But this is why only true masters can hodl.
I HAD A FRIEND he held 500,000 doge with a cost of 1,000 bucks. and he just held them up to 70 cents a coin and down to the current 10 cents a coin.
So he tossed a 350,000 cashout. and his 500,000 doge is worth 50k
So for me to point out 7.3 million dropped to 5.3 million and that shaving 10% off the top is not so bad should not trigger people like it does.
BTW my 10% numbers are wrong
You are wrong about a lot of things. The more you write the more
wrong wronger you seem to become.
Edit: changed wrong to wronger
Poll
